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A REPORT FROM the OECD has said the Ireland is slowly getting back on its feet but it will need to stick to bailout targets for a full economic recovery.
In an economic survey of Ireland, the OECD said that the crisis “left a legacy of unemployment and debts and now is the time to implement policies that will promote sustainable growth and job creation”.
Despite gradual improvement, the report noted that “unemployment remains high, emigration has resumed, and poverty has increased, adding to heavy debts and financial distress”.
Deficit
The OECD said that in 2013, Irish deficit is projected to remain at around 7.5 per cent of GDP. If the government implements the €3.1 billion consolidation effort outlined in the budget package, the general government deficit is projected to fall to 4.6 per cent of GDP next year.
Thanks to ongoing fiscal consolidation and positive growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio is set to peak in 2013 according to the OECD and decline thereafter. The report said it is “important to remain on the fiscal path set out in the government programme while pursuing growth-enhancing reforms”.
If government debt can be reduced gradually from over 120 per cent in 2013 to 60 per cent of GDP by 2030, an additional GDP adjustment of just 2.5 per cent would be required, the report noted.
Precaution
However should real growth average only 1 per cent a year during 2014-21 instead of around 2.4 per cent, the debt ratio could rise to 136 per cent by 2021 instead of falling to 96 per cent.
The report recommended that a precautionary credit line from the IMF, ESM or ECB might be appropriate to address this.
This would act as a safeguard against potential adverse movements in financial markets confidence that could endanger the sustainability of Ireland’s successful return to the market.
The report also pointed out that Ireland has the second highest ratio of non-performing loans of all OECD countries.
It warned that failure by NAMA to redeem assets at or above their book value could trigger the government guarantee of the senior notes that were used to acquire the loans.
Overall, the report pointed to gradual recovery in the Irish economy but said that more must be done now to reinvigorate growth.
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This is the same OECD that 2 years ago told Europe we had to get used to ” a permanently lower standard of living” now suddenly it’s all roses? They are all over the place
Don’t be confused lads this is what they call a ”jobless recovery”, the ‘recovery’ is in the stock market and share prices, not your wallet.
Don’t be confused lads this is what they call a ”jobless recovery”, the ‘recovery’ is in the stock market and share prices, not your wallet.”
Well said – all they are interested in is what they call the ” Economy ” – which will have little impact on the people – and the ever growing Rich / Poor divide .
they are claiming a recovery and growth in UK – and in US to some extent – but they do not care about unemployed people – or wages etc . I n fact mist governments now are trying to please the people who really rule us – and provide them with low wages – and no trade Unions .
Well with a month left to budget 2013, 3.5million will be took from taxes and cuts, and not forgetting price hikes in fuel etc coupled with stealth taxes will dry up the last bit of household and consumer spending which will stop that growth.
3.5 million? I wish pal lol
Be between 2-3 billion, I doubt very much it will be at 3 – 3.5 billion though. Maybe €2.5 billion.
What growth??? Are the OECD deluded as well? We are STILL in recession. There needs to be a serious relaxation on the aul austerity if any sort of meaningful growth is to be established otherwise we are in for 10 years of stagnation and high unemployment.
Five years down already so half way there… Keep the faith lad, keep the faith hahaha
Ian they people that run our society and i mean the real rulers the financial houses do not care about you or me only they want it all.
It’s not clear whether we’re still in recession or not. Data for the second quarter of 2013 (April-June) won’t be available until next week.
One area we can make a big saving – unemployment benefit for non-EU nationals.
Scrap all of them and replace with something called ‘Start-up Aid’.
It gives 500 euros a month for 12 months to people as a leg-up. After a year, no more money.
If you’re in work, then no bother. If not, sorry we cannot afford it.
In Galway City and County a staggering 67% (two out of three) non-EU nationals are on the dole and have been for more than two years. They are unlikely to find work soon, if ever.
It will save the State about 1.4 billion euros a year.
There’s your water rates, there’s your property tax.
Plus a lot left over to start jobs creation.
Denmark did it in 2009 to slow down the rate of economic migration.
It did – by 85%. Only the highly skilled and educated migrate there now. A lesson for us.
I did propose this to Joan Burton several months ago and got this reply.
“Dear Mr. Conway
Minister Joan Burton T.D., has asked me to acknowledge your recent e-mail. The contents of which have been noted.
Yours sincerely
Jacinta Crawford
Private Secretary”
In other words, the ‘claimants party’ didn’t want to know.
However, can can still make the Dail listen. Let your TD know.
So what if the non-eu national has been living here for years and paying their PAYE and PRSI like everybody else? It wasn’t immigration that screwed this country up. Also, trying to stop immigration into Ireland stinks of hypocrisy when one of the main controlling factors that’s stopping our unemployment rising above 14% is emigration.
@ Declan: Do you have a source for those stats for Galway Live Register?
Not really. Ireland doesn’t have a functional immigration policy (unlike all those other countries to which Irish people are emigrating). There is no shame in creating one and enforcing it. Nor is it racist, as some seem to believe. In fact, the current polcy IS pretty shameful as it can leave people in limbo for years not knowing what their future is.
AFAIK you can only get social insurance if you’ve been working here for 6 months as an EU and 2 years as a non EU national and in that case they paid into the system like everyone else so they should be allowed acess it.
Don’t delude yourself into thinking we have esp lavish social services we really don’t, compared to the rest of Europe ours are where most EU states were in the early 20th century.
Censored, what exactly is ‘dysfunctional’ about our immigration policy? Please elaborate because if you’re going to make a claim like that you have to back it up.
..if Government can reduce the debt to 60% of GDP by 2030?….I think we need a bigger boat
things are getting better – but even the report admits
” the report noted that “unemployment remains high, emigration has resumed, and poverty has increased, adding to heavy debts and financial distress”.
– how is this recovery ??
But things will be better in 2030 – presumably – that date is a moveable feast.
This is just PR BS – to try to get us to accept more and more cuts . the people who made the biggest errors – the casino bankers have literally gotten away with robbery .
also some wont be around in 2030 – who knows who will be – so what are they paying for .
FOr the usual lucky and connected things are only great , for those propping them up things are not like that at all.
Basically, the speculators and bullshit artists are back on form. Recovery? Don’t make me laugh.
The picture for this article is great, like getting on a plane…..the super wealthy will turn left and the rest of us to the right……
There saying it’s working so we will keep paying up.
Sure when did an Irish government ever listen to the OECD?
Can we be sure that the OECD did their sums right this time? Did they check them twice?
have your say