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EVIDENCE THAT NORTH Korea has restarted a plutonium reactor is a fresh slap in the face for international efforts to encourage or coerce Pyongyang into abandoning its nuclear weapons programme, analysts say.
Satellite imagery showing white steam exiting a building next to the five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon suggests North Korea has made good on its threat in April to reopen the facility, the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University said.
The development is a stark reminder of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions at a time when Pyongyang is otherwise engaged in something of a charm offensive, striking a series of recent deals with South Korea on thorny cross-border issues.
The Yongbyon reactor, shut down in 2007 under an aid-for-disarmament accord, is capable of producing six kilogrammes (13 pounds) of plutonium a year — enough for one nuclear bomb.
(AP Photo/Jon Chol Jin)
“They really are putting themselves in a position to increase the amount of material they have for nuclear weapons,” said Jeffrey Lewis, who analysed the images for the institute.
“This gives them a little bit of leverage in negotiations, and adds a sense of urgency on our part,” Lewis told the BBC.
Undermined
Pyongyang is currently believed to have enough plutonium for about six bombs, after using part of its stock for at least two of its three atomic tests.
The restart of the plutonium reactor would be the latest in a series of steps undermining years of effort by the international community to stall and roll back North Korea’s pursuit of an advanced nuclear deterrent.
(AP Photo/Wong Maye-E)
Last month, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) said satellite images suggested the North may have doubled its uranium enrichment capacity at Yongbyon.
The US think-tank, which tracks the North’s nuclear weapons programme, said the expansion would allow the facility to produce as much as 68 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium a year — enough for three nuclear bombs with a little left over.
Separate satellite images in May showed that construction of an experimental light-water reactor at Yongbyon was also nearing completion.
Last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency described these various moves — if confirmed — as “deeply regrettable” and “clear violations” of relevant UN Security Council resolutions.
(AP Photo/Wong May-E)
In recent weeks, North Korea has indicated its willingness to resume six-party talks on its nuclear programme, involving the United States, Russia, China, Japan and South Korea.
But both the United States and South Korea have wagered significant political capital on a policy that insists meaningful talks can only begin after North Korea demonstrates a tangible commitment to denuclearisation.
By taking the opposite route and restarting its reactor, Pyongyang is following a tried and trusted policy that sees belligerence rather than compromise as the best tactic for bringing the US and its allies to the dialogue table where it can extract concessions.
Non-engagement
“It’s unclear whether the North has genuinely resumed operating the plutonium reactor or is just making it look like it has done so,” said Yang Moo-Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Pyongyang.
“But the strategy is the same either way — put pressure on Washington to start a dialogue,” Yang said.
(AP Photo/KRT via AP Video)
Glyn Davies, the US pointman on North Korea who is currently touring the region to discuss the next diplomatic move vis-a-vis Pyongyang, indicated Tuesday that Washington would stand firm.
“We need to see some signs that they are sincere about what is the central issue of the six-party process which is the peaceful denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula,” Davies said after talks with his South Korean counterpart in Seoul.
The problem for Washington and Seoul is that the further North Korea is perceived to be advancing its nuclear programme, the larger the question mark over the effectiveness of non-engagement.
“Restarting the Yongbyon reactor will raise international concerns and that raises the pressure on the US and its allies to do something about it,” said Kim Yong-Hyun, a North Korea specialist at Seoul’s Dongguk University, adding:
Needless to say, North Korea is very well aware of this.
Timeline
An ISIS analysis report noted there was still time to negotiate a shutdown of the reactor, given that it would take 2-3 years before it discharges irradiated fuel containing plutonium.
And Paul Carroll of the Ploughshares Fund, a global security foundation, doubted that Washington would allow itself to be rushed back to the dialogue table.
“The reactor isn’t really a surprise and its restart was probably factored in by the US administration some time ago,” Carroll said, adding:
With its focus on Syria, the US will be willing to let South Korea take the lead on this for a while, especially given the recent signs of progress in cross-border ties.
The two Koreas have just set a date for reopening a joint industrial zone shut down five months ago and are also set to resume family reunions for those separated by the 1950-53 Korean War.
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Pic 1: mam we got our group photo taken today, I’m 20 rows bk, 10 from the left
Hey!! While everyone’s looking at Syria keys start up the reactor and celebrate by shooting an orchestra
North Korea is best Korea!
that ‘white steam’ is just a few kettles ffs.
Lowe is not pro NK. Just so blinded by paranoia that he/she is anti usa and hates them. Although won’t admit it but would back Hitler just as he was against America
A complete nut job running a scary country.
Who Kenny?
You beat me to it John
John Mack I mean! Though the other John’s comment could apply to literally hundreds of countries.
I see the solution to Ireland’s housing crisis in the last picture.
@Galwaymammy Yes but in this case was referred to that actual article above. But yeah great comment. Really was amused how you and John Mack had no idea who I was referring to.
Try reading the article first before jumping to the comments section.
That North korean chap is gone mad with power!Not the good type.
I agree. However, don’t forget that it was the US who turned a blind eye to Pakistan helping the North Koreans develop a nuclear program, missiles and weapons with regular trips. This was after the US was vital in helping Pakistan become a Nuclear Power under Khan in return for Pakistan supporting US interests in the region.
Nice try galloway
Far as I know, the US opposed Pakistan going nuclear.
Kissinger told Zulfikar Ali Bhutto he’d make a “terrible example” of him if he pursued his goal of developing nuclear weapons.
B Lowe needs medical help.
Seoirse/b Lowe, blah blah blah! Your a great man for making excuses for these regimes.
Sure….a big power wishes unstable little powers to have a MAJOR increase in capabilities. I suppose to have allies with which to persecute the poor Assads.
The DPRK is THE worst regime on Earth bar none. When he falls let us hope it is from within. Afterwards the West will not be able to say, “We didn’t know.” It is a disgrace but he has 14,000 artillery pieces pointing at Seoul and they are constantly threatening to turn Seoul into a “River of flames.” ( Scary image, eh?) Hard to move against him and no one has wanted to be responsible for the costs/ deaths.
The US has 37,000 soldiers in Seoul who would be expected to be first target. As in Berlin they are not there to defend the place. They are there to die as heroes. And so everybody knows that the next Korean War will be less than 30 minutes long.
In the past 15 years almost 100 students from Korea have lived in my home and I have visited them in theirs. Lovely people. Most live in complete denial of the sword hanging over their heads. But a guy who malingers or otherwise shirks his military service will be undateable for most girls…
Amazing, a few days after the yanks failed to bomb Syria they again up the ante on north korea.
The yanks are gunning for war, someone is going to get it.
Well they do need to keep the military contractors in business somehow, war = $$$$
Providing the North Korean population with cheap reliable electricity should be applauded.
Except that it’s sole use is to produce plutonium for bombs. At 5MW that station would not power a decent sized train.
Providing the North Korean population with food would be much better, but sure a dictator does tend to love his little toys.
Obama is the complete mignon running a dangerous country.
Look at US history and you will find that the Yanks have waged war on everybody else for the last 100 Years.
Trigger happy Yanks are more dangerous.
The Yanks are the only country to use nuclear weapons on civilians… And they used them twice.
Thank God there are North Koreans to stand up against the Imperialist trigger happy American terrorists.
Tristan what’s your name in Korean then ?
What’s funny is the Yanks could take out North Korea quite easily. A few surgical strikes on their nuclear facilities and a bomb directly on the presidential palace during one of their parades, delivered at Mach 3, and the whole country would collapse. I mean, there’s only Kim vs everyone else. Sure, there’d be chaos for a while but as soon as South Korea came in with unlimited Sushi, cellphones and Jesus freaks, everything would change overnight.
That is a very defined statement, maybe you need to take a look at your history book, regarding the last give or take 20 years, re american policy, under the Democrats, Clinton had a brief war to protect oil, Bush junior went in to have a war because his dad did not, Obama, is very reluctant to go to Syria, and is doing the sensible thing, wait! Re N.K. again negociation is best, not war only the innocent suffer. The average American does not want to get involved in any war since Vietnam.
Also they never wanted to go to war in1939, it was the attack by Japan that sucked them in
Also they never wanted to go to war in1939, it was the attack by Japan that sucked them in
You mean the attack by Japan that the Americans had info that it was coming and did nothing to stop it that attack by Japan
Copstix. The although Americans were expecting a war with Japan they did not think it would come to them in the way it did. They were planning to take the war to Japan on their terms. Let us not forget Japan in 1941 controlled vast swathes of Asia from the Mongolian border in China to the Southern most Islands of Indonesia and Westward to the Island of Midway. And they had planned to reach India and Australia.
Tristan, have you forgotten that Japan invaded and controlled most of the pacific in WW 2?
Are you ignorant about the rape of Nanking?
Mick … It’s well documented from the removal of radar from pearl harbour to the Australians alerting the Americans that the Japanese were tooled up and heading your way they let this happen
Declan
Have you recently researched Nanking you keep bringing it up n up n up … I understand you find it interesting and your excited that’s cool but enough already ffs
Copstix. There was radar on Hawaii. But because it was so new and so little understood the Military top brass did not trust it. Add to that the confusion that came about that when the first Japanese air wave arrived it was believed to be a flight of B17′s from the mainland. If the Americans were expecting the attack they would not have left their entire Pacific fleet of Battleships at anchor with mostly skeleton crews.
And as for the Australians telling the Americans that the Japanese were on through way. The sheer size of the Pacific trying to find the Japanese fleet would have been like trying to find a single needle in 1000 haystacks. All the Australians told the Americans was that the Japanese fleet was at sea. Not where it was heading or what the target was going to be.
You don’t know that read the history, not movies
Also in relation to Vietnam, it was the French who demanded the return of control after the war, the Americans had done a deal with Ho Chi Ming to give independance and unfortunatly bowed to the French, hence the French/American war in vietnam,
Also in relation to Vietnam, it was the French who demanded the return of control after the war, the Americans had done a deal with Ho Chi Ming to give independance and unfortunatly bowed to the French, hence the French/American war in vietnam,
Chop, would you like to tell me what you and others keep bringing up over and over again?
This is now. Stop cherry picking through history to frame your own lopsided view.
Michael,
You’re right with one exception. They reached India read up on Imphal. Luckily they didn’t get that far in.
The Japanese couldn’t have won as they were actually fighting on 3 fronts and having to keep occupied territories under control. Chin Peng and his crowd were playing hell with them in Malaya, Papuans, Dyaks were happy chopping off. Japanese heads, the Chinese hadn’t settled down and there was always the worry that once the Russians had settled things in the West they might decide to have a go and occupy China.
The later Vietnam Minh (eventually Vietnam Cong) were also supplying fun and games in Vietnam.
In the west we hear a lot about European resistance against the Germans but little about that against the Japanese in Asia.
You never find Koreans or Chinese people talking about Hiroshima and Nagasaki out of context. Even commies. Cop on, moron.
Chop, I’m not excited.
Now I’m not condoning NK’s actions, but you do have to give it up to them for cutting themselves off from the rest of our screwed up world like that. A utopian idea that backfired in a way(famine,etc.). What the hell else are they meant to do with the US bullying them (and anyone else they see fit) and the “UN”(who are a contradiction of themselves) constantly on their back? Does every country not have a choice to choose their own path? Or do they have to do what the rest of the world “agrees” on?
If they did things properly e.g. If their leader wasn’t a power mad nutcase, I’m sure people would be flocking their to live.
Yes, because a country which allows very few personal freedoms and starves its own people just to feed a vastly oversized army is a perfect place to live. The West may not be perfect but it is heaven on Earth compared to the conditions most North Koreans live in.
So there screwed up world is better than our screwed up world, i think not
I don’t think either of you understood my comment.
Breadwinner. If NK was just intent on keeping it’s self to its self nobody would give them much thought. But as they have proven time and time again they are not. From all out invasion of the South to continuous incursions into Southern territory and unprovoked physical and cyber attacks on the South.
Breadwinner, go live there for awhile and tell us what you think then.
Breadwinner, i agree with you 100%!
I was once ring how long it old be before the US was accused of”bullying”. Short memories indeed.
This is outrageous! Always looking at the bad side. Like the guys who forget to mention how Hitler ran the trains on time! Liberal media…
Are many Irish running from Ireland’s economic mess to the DPRK paradise? There are a few on here could work for the DPRK Ministry of Truth! And seem to have time on their hands, so
Syria is on hold lets see what’s up with North Korea .
They do a great trade in army uniforms
When I was there they were struggling to supply a regular electric current to the city. Lot of blackouts. As there are US embargoes on oil and other fossil fuels they were trying to build a hydroelectric based grid. They should be allowed use nuclear power as a source for their electricity. A nuclear bomb on the other hand is worrying but the US and Russia only have themselves to blame for that. Koreans see what a deterrent it was during the Cold War, see china, Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran, UK, France have them and want to join the club.
Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya didn’t have the bomb and look what happened them. When you really look at it, NK’s army is crap and could be taken out in minutes.
Throw in a few nukes and America is scared sh*tless to even touch them.
It’s not that crap as there’s a lot of them in it. After 100 years of Juche brainwashing the entire population would rather die than submit to the “imperialistic sc@m” of the US. The Americans would have no stomach for another Vietnam style ground invasion plus the Chinese (who have a larger army/navy/air force than the US) wouldn’t tolerate it. A few air strikes and a UN backed invasion would be the only likely outcome and the last UN intervention in Korea didn’t end too well. If McArthur had been allowed to nuke Korea when he wanted then things may have turned out differently.
Not really. The North Korean army may not be great but experience has shown over the last 50 years that a poorly equipped army in a diffficult terrain can still do a lot of damage.
Getting nukes can actually be a lot more dangerous for North Korea. Sure the Russians have already said that if any war between them and China were to happen they will use their nukes on China. North Korea would be no different.
James, on what do you base your North Korean Army is crap comment.
Their Army is massive, are well treated compared to rest of the country and are consider by western military as battle worthy.
Do not underestimate them, the Korean War in 1952 was not won its still a cease fire.
Also they have an absolute lunatic in charge with an oppressive police state mechanism holding the country in fear.
Now if the maniac in charge could be knocked off then there might be a chance of stabilisation
Actually the majority of the North Korean army is pretty poor. Yes they do have a large standing force but they don’t even have enough small arms to equip their entire standing and reserve forces. A fraction of their armoured vehicles could be classed as modern, the vast majority are 1970′s vintage. We all saw how well 1970′s Soviet-lineage vehicles performed against ultra-modern western vehicles in Iraq.
The only thing that the North Korean army really has going for it is the sheer size of it. But really when the country is in a state of famine that massive army will run out of supplies very quickly in a war scenario.
Jason,
North Korea largest special forces in the world. Minimum length of service 3 years average 5.mfurl reserves to last 100 days, food 500.
Ref equipment correct mixture WW2 to modern day. Own armaments production.
Huge numbers over 9 million artillery alone 8,500.
Arming of soldiers -Russia WW2 their soldiers picked up the rifles of dead Russian soldiers and continued assault.
They have CW weapons and capabilities, cyber warfare capable.
Lets not make the same mistake about North Korea as Britain and France made about the Japanese in WW2 “funny little men wearing glasses with buck teeth, no problem for us”
Never underestimate the power of numbers or your enemy.
So tell me, where will the North Korean army get the fuel from to keep their tanks running if the war develops into a protracted conflict? Or the food for that matter? Hell you even admitted it yourself that the country couldn’t even equip its whole army with enough guns. The North Korean navy wouldn’t be able to last a week when faced with the vastly superior US navy, at which point supply from the outside world would become incredibly difficult.
Yes the Russians didn’t have enough small arms to equip their forces but they weren’t fighting a vastly superior foe with a huge generation gap in equipment. It was shown in Iraq that older tanks are absolutely useless against modern vehicles, at which point numbers becomes irrelevant.
Invading would be a mess. Sure the army would be defeated in days but would turn to hit and run insurgency. They would also turn guns on own people for not being patriotic enough. Any invasion will lead to mass murder and suicides by the brainwashed.
But that would be less deaths in long run then leaving the kims in charge
Sick country.
I did not say North Korea would win. They have 100 days fuel, also 500 days food, am intuition etc.
Their Navy is in a terrible state.
I did not say they had insufficient weapons, I said that given numbers they would do as the Russians did and pick up from the dead.
My main point is do not underestimate.
And I am very, very aware of both Iraqi wars and Afghanistan having both friends and relatives who served and are serving in both.
The Romanian solution is the best solution. DPRK generals need to know that if they take this nut job out they can move to a South American island and live like kings. The North has to hope word of life in the freer world ( everywhere) doesn’t sink in. This is the kind of regime that if it lets up the pressure at all would find the situation out of control fast. But with 1/3 of the population in what are work-to-death camps what would liberalization look like?
have your say