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IT’S BEEN A “shellacking” for the government and particularly Labour while there’s been a significant rise in support for Sinn Féin and independents.
Fianna Fáil is now set to be the biggest party in local government – a remarkable turnaround – and the left-vote is strong across the country.
All over the country, the people have had their say in the local and European elections and the political parties and independents will now be assessing what it all means as we still await the definitive outcome of the European elections.
But what did we learn from the election of hundreds of councillors, out of over 2,000 candidates, to 31 local authorities? Here’s our take…
1. The government is being forced into action – but what action?
As we wrote earlier, there are very few if any options available to the government that will boost its support given the extent of voter anger expressed at the ballot box this weekend. There is now an expectation that the Cabinet reshuffle will happen next month, possibly as soon as this coming week with big changes in the offing. But does that pacify the voters in any meaningful way? Probably not.
Labour is now pushing for a renewal or even a renegotiation of the programme for government, something which Fine Gael doesn’t appear particularly keen on. The junior coalition party must now deal with its own internal issues including a possible leadership heave, but that’s unlikely to have much impact on its popularity with voters.
2. The electorate has swung left – but doesn’t think Labour is on the left
It’s somewhat ironic that a large swing to the left has been of no benefit whatsoever to the Labour Party. The junior coalition partner has suffered what Joan Burton called a “shellacking” yesterday with its local authority numbers taking a huge hit and the party set to return zero MEPs.
The seemingly inevitable electoral bloodbath for Labour transpired and has raised wider questions for the party but one thing is for sure: many people who opted for a left alternative weren’t voting for the traditional party of the left.
3. Sinn Féin couldn’t run enough candidates in some areas
It’s been a seriously good election for Sinn Féin but sources were briefing on Friday that it did not have the organisation to match the other parties and so it proved in some areas. In Clondalkin for example the party had enough of a quota to take three seats, but it only ran two candidates – Eoin Ó Broin and teenager Jonathan Graham.
The challenge now facing the party is to put that organisation in place ahead of the general election to capitalise on its growing popularity in addition to showing that it can govern as it looks to hold the balance of power on many councils across the country most notably in Dublin where it is the biggest party.
4. While Fine Gael ran too many in some areas
Fine Gael figures acknowledged today that the party ran too many candidates in some parts of the country particularly in the capital and areas like Rathgar-Rathmines and Pembroke South Dock. In Ballymun, Noel Rock was elected for the first time, but that came at the expense of former lord mayor Gerry Breen and Professor Bill Tormey, both sitting councillors who lost their seats.
It’s worth remembering that candidates were largely selected months ago before the party’s decline in the opinion polls with the various controversies that have engulfed government in recent months. The party had optimistically aimed to get some 350 candidates elected but it will fall well short of that.
5. Fianna Fáil is recovering nationwide, including in Dublin
The party may not take the European seat, but the Battle of Blackrock did not become the Bloodbath of Blackrock as both Kate Feeney AND Mary Hanafin took council seats. The party was less successful elsewhere in the capital but it is the beginnings of a recovery with an increase in seats on Dublin City Council including the newly-elected Frank Kennedy:
This was indicative of a much better performance from Fianna Fáil in the capital which was mirrored in other parts of the country like in Cork where it is now the largest party on the city council. In all likelihood Fianna Fáil will be the largest party in local government – a remarkable turnaround from its 2011 position.
6. The Greens are on the way back
The Green Party is on the way back after its wipeout in 2011. The party has enjoyed some considerable success in Dublin not least in Rathgar-Rathmines where Patrick Costello took a seat and polled strongly. Meanwhile, on the other side of the city in Mulhuddart the decade of work put in by Roderic O’Gorman paid off as he won a seat on Fingal County Council.
Vine: The Green Party’s Claire Byrne was elected onto Dublin City Council along with Fine Gael’s Kieran Binchy and Paddy McCartan:
https://vine.co/v/MwtW2271KH2
7. Independents must seize the moment
This election has seen a huge endorsement of independent voices at a local government level with overall numbers set to double to around 200 or so. People who are tired of the same old party structure have voted for people they feel best articulate their beliefs
The challenge now for independents is to work effectively at local government and prove doubters wrong. Experience in the Dáil has shown that those who cooperate with each other stand the best chance of success. There’s no use being a protest councillor who says ‘no’ to everything.
8. Being part of the last government is no barrier to recovery
https://vine.co/v/MwrdmAB3QDa
As well as the aforementioned Hanafin restarting her political career with election to Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council, it was intriguing to see former Green TD Paul Gogarty elected, albeit as an independent, onto South Dublin County Council.
Former Fianna Fáil junior minister Seán Haughey has also won a seat in Dublin proving that associations with one of the most controversial governments in the history of the State is no barrier to restarting your political career three years on.
9. Apathy may have been the biggest winner
“If only Irish people were as enthusiastic about voting as they are about watching the results,” remarked one retiring councillor to us today. Wise words given that around half of voters didn’t even bother voting in this election.
Perhaps that’s the biggest lesson in all of this. Turnout is always lower in mid-term elections but this was lower than in 2009. Of the many talking heads we’ve heard over the past weekend, very few have touched on the turnout except for Charlie Flanagan, the Children’s Minister, who said: “I do believe we’ve got to look at the other 50 per cent of those that didn’t vote at all. There’s something of a disconnect in Irish politics.”
He’s right.
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The only thing I see from these results is that Ireland has learned nothing from the past… FF are back… it’s a sad day for Ireland and proves to the ordinary taxpayer that nothing is ever going to change in Ireland :(
Yes FF are back thanks to FG & Lab
Corrupt and greed is all that drives them.
Yes. And who on earth believes the line FG/Lab are trotting out: ‘we didn’t get our message across’. They ARE getting their message across. All too loudly and all too clearly. And we hear it all too well. That’s their problem!
What they actually mean is that they are unable to spin the situation they have created. And who could? The reality is too harsh to hide or to spin.
FF are back. Therein lies the rub. It doesn’t matter how bad labour and FG do, they will be back within a few short years once they leave govt. Irish people forgive and forget very quickly. I can guarantee labour will never poll lower than 7% again. The only way is up from here, just like FF in 2011. One thing is certain, there will always be FF, FG and Lab in Irish politics. The people will see to that. It’s been proven for 90 years plus now.
Who ever voted for FG FF and Labour are going to have to live with the mass destruction. More of the same more evictions more homeless more corruption how stupid are we. Brian Crowley in cork topped the poll his own election literature lists his last achievement in 07 and his vote is higher than his actual attendance which is lowest on record. Fools we are Fools
They are the bounce voters. They dont change and stick with what they know family politics. FG FF LAB. They think they thought FF a lesson and swing back. Forgetting the ones in FF are the same ones that were there the last time without the head of previous. Making us all pay for their disaster voting. Imagine the GE they would have a FG FF coalition and we are all screwed.
Typical.
Sorry taught.
Check out the post codes where the highest FF & FG winners emerged
Didn’t know we had postcodes in Ireland?
What does that mean? Elaborate? Hi Danielle :)
“Election selfies” need to die a quick death. Nothing worse than politicians trying to get down with da kidz.
Sadly Fine Gael and Labour have lost their way.
This Government accepted that innocent honest Irish taxpayers should be burdened with the “unsecured” debts of Irish Bankers, developers and Builders.
The word “unsecured” means they have no security !
Our Government placed the debts of these unsecured mainly German Banks on the shoulders of the Irish Taxpayers!
We rescued the banks – the same banks who are issuing eviction notices against overburdened Irish Taxpayers!
Not just!
White collar workers in Ireland do not go to prison!
Banks are appointing Receivers over property owned by honest Irish Taxpayers.
Business people in Limerick who have vacant commercial property are being charged commercial rates by Limerick City Council as if they were millionaires but politicians do not care!
We live in a crazy country where if you borrow a small sum you are treated as a criminal whereas if you borrowed millions you are rescued by NAMA and in many cases paid a good salary as well!
What madness.
Labour &Fine Gael have also deceived the electorate in their pre-election promises!
We rescued the unsecured German Bondholders at the expense of innocent Irish Taxpayers
6 years into an austerity programme – still serious problems in Ireland!
Taxpayers are overburdened at present.
Iceland got into trouble in 2008 the same time as Ireland!
It is now a booming economy we virtually full employment!
We only learned one thing
Democracy doesn’t work. The majority of people don’t deserve a vote
And to take that further “The majority deserve exactly what they get”
You forget Harry we pay for their decisions aswell.
Everyone deserves to vote that’s what democracy is idiot.
Democracy doesn’t work”
– Democracy works – but we don’t have it . We have Oligarchy .
Everyone deserves to vote that’s what democracy is idiot.”
– Voting is not necessarily democracy . Democracy is government of the people – FOR the people .
Do u think we have that .
Don’t confuse Democracy with the ballot box
I am baffled that Ruairi Quinn said today that “he cannot as yet draw conclusions from yesterday’s Local Election” !
Does he not see the “writing on the wall” ?
A child could tell him how the voters feel!
Labour said it would not introduce water rates or property taxes. Yet his party deceived the electorate.
He personally as Minister wants to destroy all faith education in all Irish schools!
Is he mad?
Labour Is dead and cannot be trusted!
Ridding schools of church based control is the one good idea he’s had.
But he is wrong about just about everything else.
Get a life think of our culture crib gone in Dublin airport.
You guy have lost the plot.
Pi**** off my fellow Ballymunner voted for that Rock chsp. Because hes a local doesn’t make him good. His envelope debacle proves he’s just like the rest
This election confirms Ireland is full of whinging bitches who have the inability to take responsibility for their own actions and would gladly put a load of thieves, con artists, and murders in power if it means they get more money for pints on Friday. Ireland is to blame for Ireland’s problems: ever travel abroad? Ireland is a shite hole compared to The Netherlands and most of Europe.
The Irish is Ireland’s worst problem.
If this is how Ireland thanks the first honest government it’s had in decades then it deserves Fianna Fail and Murder Inc, in power.
Bunch of clowns who voted for FF. They have very short memories.
We have learned FG & Lab still haven’t got the message the election results have gone over their heads.
Leo got it slightly wrong the next government will be formed by one of biggest parties ie FF & SF
SF? You reckon?
FG/FF have, as of this moment, 366 council seats won between them. SF have 135.
They are a minority. The right wing conservatives continue to reign in this country and while you may disagree with some of their economic policies at least they aren’t the fairies in the sky nonsense of SF, who will spend, spend, spend money the country doesn’t have.
SF may, at some point, share power. It’ll happen once and then never again once the Irish people realise that Emperor Gerry wears absolutely no clothes.
I not SF but you guys FG FF & Lab
Just don’t get it corruption and greed
doesn’t carry much weigh anymore.
Amazed that Fianna Fail are a full ten points ahead of SF in the locals.
FG and Lab had their chance but turns
out more like FF than they care to believe . Pensions pensions pensions.
Yes Reg, another thing we’ve learned, the electorate have the memory of a goldfish.
Anyone concerned at the 50% turnout?
Yes. Sinn Fein. Because when it really matters they won’t be winning 60 seats or seeking a ew independents to share government with in 2016.
I swear to God some of the stuff on here today from the Shinners was laugh out loud funny. At the moment they are a distant fourth behind FF/Independents/FG in terms of council seats won. They got 15% of the vote. Less than a very unpopular government AND the party that destroyed the country and was unceremoniously kicked out of power barely three years ago.
If this is the best they can do then they will never govern this country.
And I don’t buy the spin of party building. 15% is it. The emperor wears no clothes and the vast majority of Irish voters can see that.
Fg and Labour are serving this country
well not,
Anyone concerned Enda won’t do a media interview.
The turnout is likely to be much higher given the appalling state of the electoral register.
10s of 1000s of people on the register are in Australia, New Zealand, USA, etc.
10s of 1000s more are duplicated having moved addresses and are registered two or more times, (leaving the system wide open to abuse)
We should move to having our vote tied to our PRSI number as soon as possible and have a centralised system where having a double entry would not be possible.
People that are not in receipt of either state benefits or registered as employed or self employed on 1st day each year should automatically be removed from the register, with a right to apply for re entry.
We will then have a reasonably accurate register.
I look forward to seeing Sinn Féin and the independents delivering on their election promises – should be good for a laugh!
In order to see trends, comparing the number of seats lost and won would be a better indicator than percentages. Comparing percentages in local elections with percentages in general elections is very misleading with different turnouts in both cases. The biggest winners in terms of seats gained this time out were Independents but because they are not classified as a party this has been largely ignored. SF have also gained seats, all the other main parties lost seats.
Judging by your tweets and the articles you have written here, it seems likely that you have FF leanings Hugh. Fianna Fáil’s “recovery” is completely being blown out of proportion.
You forgot to mention Irish people are idiots. I’m living outside of Ireland now thanks to FF. I’m disgusted to be honest. FF are for life not just for Xmas and some of us won’t get to see our kids grow up thanks to their policies.
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