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An Iraqi soldier flashes a V for victory sign in Baghdad. AP/Press Association Images

Explainer: What's happening in Iraq?

This is an emergency on top of an emergency.

THE FRONT PAGES of many international newspapers proclaimed the end of the ‘American dream’ in Iraq this morning after a relatively small group of militants created a crisis of unprecedented proportions in the war-torn country.

It’s been many years since the US invasion brought Iraq to the forefront of all news bulletins and in the intervening years since 2003, the conflict has faded out of our consciousness.

However, events of the past 96 hours will have set alarm bells off across the world.

The timeline has been so quick that it’s caught the US administration off guard, nevermind the ordinary citizen. So, here’s a play-by-play explainer of what’s been happening.

Why is Iraq back in the news?

In a startlingly effective offensive, a group of Sunni militants – part of a splinter group of al-Qaeda – are moving towards Baghdad and, crucially, the country’s largest oil refineries.

That, obviously, has both the Iraq government and Western powers worried.

Mideast Iraq Vehicles are seen burned on a street of the northern city of Mosul. AP / Press Association Images AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

When did this start?

This specific wave of violence began on Monday in the country’s second largest city, Mosul.

The group, called the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), took the airport, the TV stations and the governor’s office. They also helped 1,000 prisoners escape during the overnight operation.

It was the unbelievable speed of the victory that shocked those within and onlookers from outside the area, ensuring that Iraq was catapulted back onto our television sets.

But how did that happen?

Although there are only a few thousand militants total involved in the Sunni group, it has been reported that members of the Iraq army fled their posts and abandoned their weapons as soon as they appeared.

There were also incidents witnessed of officers giving militants their arms and their uniforms, fueling suspicions of a conspiracy within Iraq’s forces.

Reports indicate that up to 30,000 soldiers ran away in the face of only 800 fighters.

What’s happened since?

Yesterday, the city of Tikrit was overran by ISIS. This is particularly important as it was the hometown of Saddam Hussein.

Who are ISIS?

They are a breakaway group of al-Qaeda. And are thought to be even more extreme than those origins suggest.

ISIS (or sometimes ISIL) came into being in the early wars of the Iraq War.

They want to establish an Islamic state, taking in the entire region and imposing Sharia law throughout. It has already achieved the latter in some towns in Syria where women now wear niqabs and music is banned.

Its membership is made up of fighters from all over, including Chechnya, Turkey, parts of Europe and other Arab countries.

Its targets? The Iraq and Syrian governments. But there have also been thousands of civilian casualties at their hands.

What next?

ISIS has warned that it will continue its offensive, moving towards Baghdad. Today, it took another town -Dhuluiyah – which is located just hours away from the capital.

Its spokesperson Abu Mohammed al-Adnani also said the group would destroy the Shiite shrine city of Karbala, which is visited by million of pilgrims from around the world each year.

Mideast Iraq Shiite Muslim worshippers gather in front of the holy shrine of Imam Hussein, in the background, during the Muslim festival of Arbaeen in Karbala last December. AP / Press Association Images AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

There has been talk about Kirkuk as well?

Yes, with the militants closing in on Baghdad, forces from Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region took control of Kirkuk, an ethnically divided northern city they have sought to rule for decades against the objections of successive governments in Baghdad.

The city is known for its oil.

What’s the death toll?

No official figures from the violence have been confirmed but there were reports today of 14 injuries in Kirkuk.

A news photographer, Kamran Najm Ibrahim, was also killed while covering the fighting between the jihadists and Kurdish forces.

Does this have anything to do with religion?

Sadly, yes. There is a significant sectarian element to the fighting, despite the fact that both factions share many common beliefs.

Currently, the government is a Shiite one but the militants are Sunnis. (Al-Qaeda members are Sunnis).

About 85 per cent of the Muslim world is Sunni. The divide – which dates back to the death of Islam’s found in 632 – is one of the driving factors for many conflicts across the Middle East.

What about the American troops?

America’s troops withdrew from Iraq in 2011. Many commentators have said this left a power and security vacuum in Iraq. One that has been filled by these extremists.

The US had spent billions of dollars training and equipping Iraq’s new security forces but this, in the words of the Foreign Minister Hosyhar Zebari, has simply melted away.

What does America have to say?

Not that much, yet. President Barack Obama says his security team are “looking at all the options” and “not ruling out anything” – except for sending in ground troops.

Iraq is going to need more help from us and it’s going to need more help from the international community.

However, he did warn the Shiite-led Iraq government that the jihadist offensive was a “wake-up call”.

The White House tonight confirmed the US is mulling the use of drones, rather than ground troops if military intervention is deemed appropriate.

Anybody else?

Russia has used the opportunity to kick the Bush-led administration and the Blair government in the UK their pointless invasion in 2003.

The events in Iraq illustrate the total failure of the adventure involving the United States and Britain.

In a very rare event, Iran are with the US and have pledged more money to Iraq as they voiced dismay at the advance of the Sunni extremists.

And the UN Security Council is holding a private meeting today to discuss developments, but there hasn’t been an official statement yet.

What’s happening to children in Iraq?

About 500,000 people have fled their homes in the city of Mosul, which was taken by the militants on Monday.

According to Unicef, about half of those are children who are now in need of urgent need of safe water, shelter, food and protection.

“They cannot wait,” says Peter Power of Unicef Ireland.

Thousands of children are currently in schools, hospitals and mosques outside the city.

Is more money needed?

The US has pledged more aid but Unicef says that emergency appeals for Iraq were only 16 per cent funded before the violence erupted.

“This is an emergency on top of an emergency in Iraq – coming on the heels of other internal displacements of children and families in Anbar, as well as Syrian refugees in the north,” said Marzio Babille, the charity’s representative in Iraq.

So, is there a state of emergency?

No. And that really underlines the parallel political problems in Iraq. The Prime Minister tried to declare a state of emergency today but not enough MPs turned up for the session.

With reporting by AFP; First published 7.30pm

Read: US condemns militant attacks in Iraq

More: Militants seize Saddam’s hometown, set sights on Baghdad

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67 Comments
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    Mute Rory Murphy
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:19 PM

    Maybe schools shouldn’t open until after Easter so, when cases hopefully will be lower than now.. Construction isn’t opening up on Monday next..

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    Mute Brian Dunne
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:30 PM

    How are we supposed fo feel confident sending our kids into schools on monday?

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    Mute Kim Steen Hansen
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:31 PM

    @Brian Dunne: keep your kids at home, problem solved.

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    Mute Thomas O' Donnell
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:38 PM

    @Brian Dunne: Because they’ll only be there for three weeks and then off for 2 weeks (14 days out of 35). Plenty of breaks in potential transmission there unlike, say, construction.

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:47 PM

    @Brian Dunne: because the 14 day infection rate in school going children is about 15% (21/02/2021) after the schools were closed for two months. This is the exact same rate as on the 21/12/2020 when the schools closed for Christmas. So it would appear that the rate of infection in the 5 to 18 year olds is unaffected by the schools being opened or closed.

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    Mute emer mcdonnell
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    Feb 26th 2021, 1:50 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: schools were closed before the new variant was here. Wait and see numbers rise. Will be interesting to see if it will be put down to community, house parties, calling in for a cup of tea or actually within the school!

    76
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    Mute Declan Edward
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:04 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: Well you could argue that the current positivity rate for 5-18 year olds, with the new variant, is worrying considering that the children haven’t been in schools or in large groups. You could also argue that with the new, more prevalent variation, that those numbers are likely to drastically increase

    38
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    Mute Niall Gannon
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    Feb 26th 2021, 4:07 PM

    @emer mcdonnell: hopefully it won’t happen but I’d imagine it will be spun exactly as you say Emer. Even schools themselves didn’t know in a lot of cases if their own kids had tested positive. It was completely at the parents discretion

    38
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    Mute Declan Doherty
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:35 PM

    This governments obsession with schools makes little sense particularly when they’re willing to destroy livelihoods and businesses in order to prioritise getting kids back into the classroom. Is it because Norma and Michael are teachers ? I certainly hope not as the stakes are too high for those games and they just got higher.

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    Mute Thomas O' Donnell
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:40 PM

    @Declan Doherty: As per my comment above, schools will be open for 14 days out of 35 from next Monday. And that’s also for less hours per day than construction/business. Schools also have the same pool of people every day, unlike businesses.

    29
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    Mute Declan Doherty
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:47 PM

    @Thomas O’ Donnell: Yes, less people overall but they’re all crammed into crowded and poorly ventilated rooms, often less then 2 meters apart, and kept there for hours on end. That doesn’t happen in building sites, shops or restaurants who’ve all been shut for months on end with no income, lost jobs, potential for permanent closure etc. Kids were already getting an education remotely and yet this government actively prioritised the schools over people’s livelihoods. It doesn’t make sense.

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    Mute Lauren McEnery
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:52 PM

    @Thomas O’ Donnell: 19 days. Schools will close for Easter holidays on Friday 26th and will also be closed on St Patrick’s Day.

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    Mute Franny Ando
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:03 PM

    @Lauren McEnery: Well then they should be left closed till after Easter holidays. Three weeks won’t make any difference to kids but it might make a difference to case numbers.

    46
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    Mute JedBartlett
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:12 PM

    @Thomas O’ Donnell: With that logic why not allow rural pubs to open for 14 days out of every 35. Most of them have the same pool of people everyday too. Nonsense logic

    30
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    Mute emer mcdonnell
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:18 PM

    @Declan Doherty: Totally agree with you. I think a lot was media driven, never seen so much focus on school closure ( even though theyre getting an education remotely) in Irish media, compared to media in other countries where remote learning is happening.

    39
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    Mute Séamus Heffernan
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:42 PM

    @Thomas O’ Donnell: Sorry, where are you getting 14 from? You should have your facts straight before arguing any opinion.

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    Mute Gert McNulty
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:44 PM

    The data clearly shows the uk variant is more transmissable particularly among children.

    Has the government put in place any extra precautions – no
    No masks for primary school children
    No changes to ventilation
    No change to who is deemed a close contact.

    The numbers may not shoot up but the spread will be down to schools. It will scupper what remains of any hope’s of a nearly normal summer for these children and the rest of the population.

    152
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    Mute Fozz
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:33 PM

    @Gert McNulty: Your ideas only work in theory.
    Try keeping masks on primary-age children and enforcing tat.
    Improved ventilation? What, should we knock loadsa holes in the walls?

    There are calculated risks in every decision that is made and they are being made with all the information, stats and figures from elsewhere.
    If parents fee that strongly, they can keep their kids at home.

    18
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    Mute David Jordan
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    Feb 26th 2021, 4:38 PM

    @Gert McNulty: Primary school aged children are less likely to fall ill and spread SARS-COV-2 as they higher levels of ACE2 cell receptors than adults, that makes them more resistant to infection and as a result young Children <12 very rarely infect adults. This is one reason why primary school children don't wear masks, as well as the impracticably, size, ill fitting.

    The same cannot be said about Teenagers however, several studies have found outbreaks linked to Teens.

    Goel, et al., 2020. The role of ace2 receptor and its age related immunity in covid-19. International Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences Review and Research; 63(2):190-194, 2020

    Euser, et al., 2021. SARS-CoV-2 viral load distribution in different patient populations and age groups reveals that viral loads increase with age. medRxiv. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249691v2

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    Mute Beulah Donohoe
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    Feb 26th 2021, 7:36 PM

    @David Jordan: 21%of chess in the last 2 weeks were children 0 to 18 yrs

    3
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    Mute Alan Wright
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:41 PM

    But, but, but… “schools are safe” and didn’t lead to any rise in community transmission. Smells like a bit of back-pedaling from the Dept. of Education in the near future.

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:52 PM

    @Alan Wright: have you any statistics to back this up. When I looked the 14 day infection rate on the 21/12/2020 was 15.5% and closing the schools for two months resulting in the 14 day infection rate on the same group being, on the 21/02/2021, the same at 15.5% . There are always minor fluctuations but little evidence that schools being opened or closed makes a difference to the infection rate of school going children.

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    Mute JedBartlett
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:32 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: Niall, have you considered that perhaps the new more transmissible variant is the reason for the infection rate remaining at 15.5% after 2 months of closure.
    I wonder without this variant, would they transmission rate have dropped? If the new transmission rate is the reason for the stagnation then infection rates will surely rise when the schools reopen.

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    Mute Jakie McLean
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    Feb 26th 2021, 11:29 PM

    @JedBartlett: unfortunately you may be right. In the UK it was reported that the new UK variant spread more rapidly in the teenage population than the previous variant.

    6
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    Mute Greg
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:50 PM

    Schools going back way to soon , new Strain discovered in Ireland , and sending kids back to school no canteens opened in the schools so the leaving cert students up the town mixing no masks

    74
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    Mute emer mcdonnell
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    Feb 26th 2021, 1:57 PM

    Absolutely crazy that they are opening schools without having put any new safety measures in place. No antigen testing…theyre doing this in France, Spain, Germany! No combination of in class and remote , they’re doing this in plenty of States in the US and even in Ethiopia! They’re not even giving an option to those who would prefer to continue with remote can do so. No, over here it’s back to normal after Easter, 30 kids all crammed into small, badly ventilated rooms and hope for the best. Can we ever get or do anything right?

    83
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    Mute Vanessa
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:25 PM

    “The schools are safe”.

    57
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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:44 PM

    @Vanessa: – the 14 day infection rate of school going children on the 21/12/2020, when the schools closed for Christmas was 15.5% – after the schools were closed for two months the infection rate on the 21/02/2021 of the same group was still 15.5%. Having the schools open or closed does little to affect the infection rate in school going children, they are on average as safe going to school as they are staying at home. There was an increase in the rate when the clocked changed interestingly. This could be dark evening, Halloween, sports, or a host of other things but the case rate in school going does not support the idea that children are safer with either the schools open or closed.

    19
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    Mute Vanessa
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:56 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: “but the case rate in school going does not support the idea that children are safer with either the schools open or closed”

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    Mute Declan Doherty
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:59 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: If this data is correct then why are the government prioritising schools reopening over businesses ? If schools make no difference to infection rates then just reopen them and prioritise peoples livelihoods instead. Also, it’s not just about infection rates in students. Once schools go back parents will naturally be moving about again along with everyone who supported them, cleaning staff, drivers etc. There’ll be a considerable relaxing of behaviours by a large portion of society and the government, who’ve already lost control, will have no other options left to try. They’re rushing this at the expense of everyone else and it’s a big gamble.

    36
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    Mute Peter Fitton
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    Feb 26th 2021, 1:02 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: Might wanna double check the logic.

    18
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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:26 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: The article states that that precentage was 20.1% for school age kids in the last two weeks. So is the precentage already rising before schools are open? Also as the close contact positivity rate has more than doubled in the time period you are comparing well does it not suggest that when kids go back to school and increase the number of close contacts they have that there will be more cases than December? I’m also not sure comparing data that is different for two main reasons, new variant and closed schools, is relevant at all.

    18
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    Mute Paddy Fox
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    Feb 26th 2021, 3:58 PM

    @NotMyIreland: I’ve done a few stints as a substitute teacher in a secondary school since September. Windows and doors were left open. Students wore hats and coats. They all wore masks. I wore a mask unless I was alone at the top of the class. There was plenty of hand gel and also wipes for students to wipe down their desks. At least three times per day there was a supervised break where classes could leave the room and get fresh air. Each class stayed together, there was no mixing with other classes. Teachers could not distribute handouts or collect copies.
    I contrast all the above with young people meeting up outside of school in unrestricted settings and the increased possibilities for infection this brings.

    9
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    Mute Paddy Fox
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    Feb 26th 2021, 4:01 PM

    @Paddy Fox: in addition, any work given was completed and corrected using Google classroom. All surfaces were sanitised at the end of the day. An extra staffroom was created and tables were rearranged to maintain distancing. The school had a covid inspection in the autumn.

    6
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    Mute emer mcdonnell
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    Feb 26th 2021, 5:28 PM

    @Niall Ó Cofaigh: the new more transmissable variant was not here when schools closed for Christmas so those stats aren’t helpful. Time will tell in a few weeks how many children come down with it. A gamble the government are very willing to take it seems, without having put any additional safety measures in place.

    9
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    Mute Munster1
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:49 PM

    The great UK variant school experiment.

    62
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    Mute Jennifer Kelly
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:27 PM

    Maybe sort out the ports!!!

    56
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    Mute Greg
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:50 PM

    Schools going back way to soon , new Strain discovered in Ireland , and sending kids back to school no canteens opened in the schools so the leaving cert students up the town mixing no masks

    44
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    Mute Miss T
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:49 PM

    I’d love to see the logic in sending back the junior classes – the classes of school age children who can’t/don’t wear masks? Why they didn’t wait till after the Easter break, give it another month for lowering case numbers?

    39
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    Mute Ger Power
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    Feb 26th 2021, 3:18 PM

    I teach in Youthreach in Dublin. We have our 2nd year Leaving Certificate Applied group back from Monday. All my colleagues and I can’t wait to get back to our centre to work as the online learning has been a struggle for many our students (no laptops, no wifi, extra supports needed etc etc). However the concern for staff is that many of our students have been ignoring guidelines and restrictions. One student missed his midterm review session as he had been at a ‘mad 21st party the night before which was great craic’. Another student slagged my hair which has not been cut since November saying ‘sure all the barbers are open in Dublin you just go around back or under the shutter’.

    33
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    Mute Declan Doherty
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    Feb 26th 2021, 5:06 PM

    @Ger Power: My daughter has the same concerns. She’s been following the guidelines but from next week she’ll be forced to sit bedside people who’ve been ignoring them and hanging out in large groups. She’s just spent the last afternoon with her grandparents who we’ll all have to stay away from now till they’re vaccinated . No matter what happens, Norma and Michael will just keep spinning the party line that schools are safe and cases will be either swept under the carpet or put down as community transmission as they were last year. I couldn’t have any less confidence in Norma’s ability to manage this situation.

    35
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    Mute Jakie McLean
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    Feb 26th 2021, 11:35 PM

    @Declan Doherty: you are right. Have absolutely no confidence or respect for Norma’s management ability

    8
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    Mute Alan Barry
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:51 PM

    To be clear too – Niamh O Beirne works as a consultant for EY. The HSE are outsourcing many key roles. http://www.ey.com/en_ie/people/niamh-o-beirne

    24
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    Mute Henri Poincaré
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    Feb 26th 2021, 1:52 PM

    @Alan Barry: looking at her CV, I’m wondering how she is qualified for the role?

    19
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    Mute Ann Nugent
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    Feb 26th 2021, 1:46 PM

    Hope their all vaccinated ,including staff

    16
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    Mute Diana Doll
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    Feb 26th 2021, 2:26 PM

    @Ann Nugent: No, they’re not.

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    Mute Alan Barry
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:51 PM

    To be clear too – Niamh O Beirne works as a consultant for EY. The HSE are outsourcing many key roles rather than building internal capacity.

    17
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    Mute Alan Barry
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    Feb 26th 2021, 12:51 PM

    To be clear too – Niamh O Beirne works as a consultant for EY. The HSE are outsourcing many key roles. https://www.ey.com/en_ie/people/niamh-o-beirne

    11
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    Mute Eoin Ó Cuinneagáin
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    Feb 26th 2021, 1:53 PM

    Yawn

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