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THE IRISH GOVERNMENT can meet its budget deficit target next year without introducing any more austerity measures, according to the latest quarterly report from Goodbody Stockbrokers.
Ireland could hit GDP growth of 3.5% a year over the next three years, the report says, with domestic demand growing 2.9% and 3.1% in 2014 and 2015 respectively.
The report adds that a projected €500m intake through already-announced water charges could allow the Government “some scope” for improving medium-term growth capacity with measures such as cutting income tax or reversing some of the capital spending cuts introduced in recent Budgets.
Goodbody also anticipates a drop in unemployment to 10.7% by the end of this year, and to 8.5% in 2016.
Goodbody Chief Economist Dermot O’Leary said: “Our preference is for Government to implement measures that will increase the medium-term potential of the economy.”
“These should include a widening of the income tax bands; a reduction in the higher rate of tax, which, including the universal social charge, is one of the highest in the EU; and a refocusing on capital expenditure, which has collapsed over recent years and remains at its lowest since the late 1980s as a percentage of GDP.”
O’Leary said that improved growth and a reduced focus on austerity offers a good opportunity for the Government to “restructure taxes and Government spending to sustain the recovery”.
There is a secondary benefit in that lower taxes and higher capital expenditure help relieve upward wage pressure in certain segments of the private sector, meaning corporates and small business can use any surplus income for investment, including business expansion and job creation.
Selling debt
The Goodbody’s report notes that Ireland’s “fiscal position would also benefit from refinancing €20bn of IMF loans over the coming years”, saving some €400m a year (or 2% of GDP) in interest costs.
The stockbroker recommends that the NTMA manages this by selling debt “beyond its traditional 10 year time frame” to take advantage of “record low market interest rates”.
“The IMF recently gave its support for an early repayment of its loans to Ireland,” O’Leary said.
“While this is subject to agreement with its EU partners, there are significant savings to be made by such a measure, given that the debt currently attracts an interest rate of 4.99%.”
Property prices going up
Goodbody says supply shortages are driving recent acceleration in prices for both commercial and residential property.
Although the construction sector is showing signs of “rebounding”, supply will continue to be an issue and so prices are expected to continue to rise.
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Is there some way the GAA could be blamed for the crash?
@Bill O Reilly: They’d have to leave the Stone Age and take a computer course first.
@Bill O Reilly: letr’s credit the GAA with the best free publicity for this event which will ensure a sell-out.
@J.D. Finnerty: funny how without computers as you say they still put rugby and soccer to shame. How are you lot coping getting changed in a ditch.
@David Clarke: Nobody has a problem with the actual sports in GAA. It’s the paranoia of other sports competing with them and their lack of common sense that people take umbrage with.
@David Clarke: you’d swear the GAA paid for these stadia themselves or something. They were paid for by the taxpayer, by and large.
@Dermot Lane: I’ve spent a life time watching GAA but it’s easy enough having facilities when everyone from the government, to the national lottery to supporters themselves pays towards it. Paying everyone involved except the players is also a neat trick.
@David Clarke: How are they putting rugby a drink football to shame? Football is the most popular sport in the country and rugby is the most successful professional sport on the island of Ireland.
@David Clarke: that’s because they don’t pay players wages, even RTE would be loaded is it didn’t have to pay its presenters every week
@Shane McGettrick: “to supporters themselves”… Youre saying that like it’s shocking or its wrong.
Absolutely it’s the supporters themselves since clubs and counties are ran and managed by the people for the people.
You mustnt have a clue how all amateur clubs across all sports and recreations. To say it like it’s just the gaa is embarrassing.
And why shouldn’t the gaa get funding from the gov’t and lottery? It’s literally one of the reasons for the lottery – to raise capital for community projects.
@De Zach Same: exactly, our first president Douglas Hyde was removed as patron and ostracized because he had the nerve to attend an international soccer match between Ireland and (Poland, I think)
@Aidan Mitchell: It’s great that PUC benefitted from public funding, not so great that the rule on the GAAs books still prohibits use of their facilities for foreign games. I’d be saying the same if the roles were reversed.
I do object to this notional idea that the GAA can afford to build large stadia because its so well run. When you don’t have any outgoings on wages, while taking in governed, lottery and private funding the running a profit is hardly surprising. Even the Offaly country board would struggle too mess that one up!
@Seamus G: So the organisers of the event get no credit for all the publicity ? I mean, it was they who chose a wholly unsuitable venue to begin with. And it was they who, when they realized they had made a mistake in their choice of venue, then demanded use of another organisations facilities. And when the other organisation refused their demand, they then ran squealing to the press with a campaign that bordered on blackmail. No, the GAA certainly can’t take all the credit.
@Bill O Reilly: queued for 6 minutes on line and bought 4 tickets. I’d no problem getting tickets.
@Tommy Roche: I get ya Tommy
@Mairtin Antaine O Conaill: no major issues, just had to refresh a few hundred times. No big deal
@Ricky Spanish: ha, you mean English football is the most popular sport in the country? A premier LOI game attracts similar crowds to a club championship game, and club championship games are only between two parishes.
Bets on a draw and a replay!!
It’s ironic that because of the GAA’s initial refusal to facilitate for the match caused media uproar, thus leading to more airtime, and as a result; more popularity. No such thing as bad publicity eh.
@B-Tech Roadman: to be honest the whole thing was like it was a publicity stunt. The man organizing it is a GAA man, so i doubt the GAA whete going to turn them down. It looks like a AIB benefit match to me. Terrace tickets still available and the computer system crashed, ya right.
@prop joe: 25,000 tickets sold and I’m pretty sure the ticketing system can handle multiple times that..so I’d say your correct and this is looking like a bit of a manufactured controversy alright…
@prop joe: The story stinks Joe, like something Senator Davis might do
@John Ryan: *25,000 sold at the time of the system crash
Time to move to Croke Park now so ;-)
Anybody know the details , start time , programme of events taking place and rough idea of the duration. I may travel down from Dublin. Every good wish for a magnificent occasion. Slainte.
@Justin Dawson: 3pm kickoff and I believe it’s a 90 minute game but who knows, 70 might be better considering the venue and age of the participants
GAA and Rugby are the only popular games here. It’s only English football that’s popular not League of Ireland which is a joke game .
@David Grey: LOI has too many teams to make it viable. They should reduce it to a provence style system like rugby (with smaller club leagues in the background) and focus on doing well in Europe..
Great to see.It probably could have just as easily sold 90k tickets.It will be a proud day for his family.
3 pm on a Tuesday is a terrible time for kick off.
@Ken Collins: Don’t go so.
They would’ve filled the aviva stadium. hope liam gets the send off he deserves
@Sean Conway: Not a great difference in capacity between the two, Aviva 51,700 as against 45,000 for Páirc Uí Chaoimh.
Delighted was able to get a few. Can’t wait to see some of these legends in action
Buy them in super valu. Just bought ours on the way home from work.
@Laura Mulcahy: well done you!
Should be on in Croke Park
Is it sold out ?
@Nightowl:
Theres only terrace tix left apparantly.
@Nightowl: 35000+ tickets sold already, only blackrock terrace tickets left now! About 15 minute online queue for them at tickets.ie
Delighted to see that this will be a 100% sell out and will help Liam Miller’s family.
Maybe use a different hashtag
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