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Will they stay or will they go? Four opinion polls say Scotland result on a knife-edge

DRAMA.

WITH JUST FOUR days to go, the latest opinion polls show the result in the Scottish independence referendum is impossible to predict with both sides almost evenly split.

Four opinion polls released today show different results, swinging from an 8-point lead for the Yes side to an 8-point lead for the No side.

The results indicate that the large number of  voters who don’t yet know how they will vote are likely to decide the outcome, with an estimated 9 or 10% of voters still not sure how to vote.

Turnout is expected to be crucial with the vote set to be the biggest in Scottish history: 97% of the electorate – almost 4.3 million people – have registered to vote in the referendum, an increase of more than 300,000 since the last general election in Britain.

The results of today’s opinion polls when the don’t knows are excluded:

ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph

  • Yes: 54%
  • No: 46%

chart The results of all ICM polls since February WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Opinium poll for The Observer

  • Yes: 48%
  • No: 52%

chart (1) WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Survation poll for the Better Together campaign 

  • Yes: 46%
  • No: 54%

chart (2) The results of all Survation polls since February WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times 

  • Yes: 51%
  • No: 49%

chart (3) Results of all PanelBase surveys since May 2013 WhatScotlandThinks WhatScotlandThinks

Both sides of the campaign have been frantically campaigning in the last few days before Thursday’s historic vote .

The anti-independence campaign had led the polls for months but its lead has diminished in recent days with a number of polls suggesting that Yes has taken the lead.

Today’s polls suggest that the momentum has shifted to the No side again, but analysts have cautioned that the result may still be to close to call.

“The polls show that the referendum is on a knife-edge. There is everything to play for,” said Blair Jenkins, the chief executive of the Yes Scotland campaign.

Read: The best quotes from Scotland’s independence referendum campaign > 

Read: Ask all you want but the government doesn’t have a view on Scottish independence > 

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52 Comments
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    Mute Kevin Manley
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    Jul 29th 2013, 1:55 PM

    They just don’t taste the same since they took the horse out.

    73
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    Mute Chris Dunphy
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    Jul 29th 2013, 2:01 PM

    People buying *fewer* frozen burgers is surely an unexpected benefit of this debacle? Just hope they’re buying something fresher and healthier instead!

    61
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    Mute Debi-Nikita Rathbone-Rentzke
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    Jul 29th 2013, 2:01 PM

    We’ve always made our own hamburger patties. Even growing up in my Mothers home, she made and still does make everything from scratch, even her pizza bases and pasta..
    Last night I mad hamburgers for the family.. So quick and easy and tastes even better as you make it the way you like it. :)

    32
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    Mute Fagan Fagan
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    Jul 29th 2013, 2:35 PM

    The best burgers are homemade no question about it …think I know what I’m cooking tonight now

    23
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    Mute Niall H
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    Jul 29th 2013, 3:04 PM

    How anyone can eat that frozen sh1t is beyond me. Saying they are affordable is just a lazy excuse

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    Mute Gavin Scott
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    Jul 29th 2013, 4:23 PM

    Fact. Even you use the cheap 20% fat mince in your homemade burgers, you still end up with a healthier and more traceable burger than anything processed or off the shelf!!

    17
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    Mute Fagan Fagan
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    Jul 29th 2013, 5:35 PM

    Why people eat processed food in the first place is beyond me
    It’s not good for ya folks

    12
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    Mute Paul Brophy
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    Jul 29th 2013, 6:46 PM

    I used to use weetabix instead of breadcrumbs for the binder. Fantastic texture to the beef patty.

    7
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    Mute fizi_water
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    Jul 29th 2013, 7:46 PM

    And do you have your own farm and cows? As otherwise you can’t tell what meat you’re using / what was animal fed etc.? That’s about your burgers from “scratch” I’m afraid.

    4
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    Mute fizi_water
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    Jul 29th 2013, 7:47 PM

    Quick, cheap, usually decent tasting…?

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    Mute Stíofán Bearnán Mac Uileagóid
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    Jul 29th 2013, 2:03 PM

    I still buy them. Even if there was horse meat in them sure a but of horse isn’t gonna kill ya.

    11
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    Mute Max Power
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    Jul 29th 2013, 1:51 PM

    I still buy em. That’s *neigh* true! I’ll get my coat…

    11
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    Mute Gavin O'Connor
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    Jul 29th 2013, 3:53 PM

    Blessing in disguise, the controversy increased peoples awareness of what was going into their bodies. The people of this country are better off if they take matters into their own hands and prepared food with the raw materials themselves. Overall their is a shocking lack of knowledge of even how the most simple of meals are made.

    10
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    Mute Oonagh Fitzgibbon
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    Jul 29th 2013, 4:22 PM

    Hence part of the reason 100 job loses in Tipperary announced….

    7
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    Mute joe dangermouse
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    Jul 29th 2013, 1:56 PM

    I gets my burgers from the local horse ranch..giddy up.

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    Mute Jim
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    Jul 29th 2013, 5:34 PM

    Why would anybody but that frozen meat patty crap, when you can crack an egg into a bit of fresh mince and make ur own burgers in minutes 100 times nicer than that frozen plastic muck!

    6
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    Mute Larry O'Doherty
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    Jul 29th 2013, 2:34 PM

    Horse meat is fine, Iv had it, but I was told what I was about to order! Sure thirty odd years ago a chipper in D12 area (now long gone) used to sell batter burgers made of dog food and was caught. People used to love them….specially after a feed of pints!

    6
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    Mute Barry Scott
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    Jul 29th 2013, 1:48 PM

    will the river of mince ever end?

    4
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    Mute richardmccarthy
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    Jul 29th 2013, 7:02 PM

    Never have eaten frozen burgers,will only eat fresh if the origin is known,if not, i just wont eat,and that goes for most meats.

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    Mute Iam D Best
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    Jul 29th 2013, 6:56 PM

    well certainly not my flat mate, they’d eat shite and well turns out they do look the worse for wear.

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    Mute Sarah Clifford
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    Jul 29th 2013, 9:42 PM

    I always make my own. Any processed meat that comes out of a box cant be good.

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    Mute John B. Reid
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    Jul 29th 2013, 8:16 PM

    What a shame. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. It leads to the most stupid and damaging overreactions.

    The most silly example of this was the Capuchin shelter in Dublin throwing out all of their burgers (many of which would have been kindly donated by members of the public, and gratefully eaten by visitors to the shelter) which they could have given to the needy and which would have done those who ate them not a fraction of harm at all.

    Also, how many jobs will be lost in Irish meat factories because of the largely uninformed (a little knowledge being a dangerous thing), negative overreaction of Irish consumers?

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    Mute Morticia
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    Jul 29th 2013, 2:45 PM

    That one in the photo needs to go in the freezer pronto before it thaws.

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    Mute Damian Moran
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    Jul 29th 2013, 11:09 PM

    No regulation was to be expected.
    Banana republic.

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    Mute Donal Buistear
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    Jul 30th 2013, 6:18 AM

    Sure the simple reason why people by less frozen burgers is the fact that most chains don’t carry them no more or in very limited quantities. Great research that is!

    1
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