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Pablo Martinez Monsivais

State of Play: How are the US Senate mid-terms looking?

Very good. If you’re a Republican.

WITH JUST 38 days left until America goes to the polls, the stakes for Barack Obama are high – and getting higher.

Despite an economy bouncing back from one of the deepest recessions in history, Obama himself has just a 42% job approval rating.

As the US tentatively enters another war, their third in 13 years, Obama is struggling to keep a rein on a number of domestic issues.

Losing the US upper house, the Senate, to the Republican Party on 4 November would essentially turn Obama’s last two years as Commander in Chief into a frustrating cycle. The Republicans have shown little willingness to work with him in the House, so there is no reason to think that they would be any more willing in the Senate.

UN Security Council Obama AP / Press Association Images AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

That’s the context, but the bad news for Obama? Republicans taking the Senate is the most likely scenario.

Most polling models put the GOP in the stronger position to take the 51 seats required to control the upper house.

Pollsters reckon that just eight of the races are still toss ups, with four still in play.

That means that Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansa, New Hampshire and North Carolina could go either way, while Michigan and Minnesota lean to the Democrats and Kentucky and Louisiana lean to the Republicans.

Midnight train

Michelle Obama Georgia Michelle Obama has been campaigning for Michelle Nunn David Goldman David Goldman

The Georgia race, where David Perdue is taking on Democrat Michelle Nunn for an open seat, could be a bell-weather of everything that will happen on the first Tuesday of November.

Until 2003, the state had two Democratic senators, but the party has since lost both those seats. Now, Nunn is looking to take back a seat held by her father.

The campaign hasn’t been easy. A leaked internal memo in July mapped out what Nunn’s problems with the electorate were, called her “lightweight” and “too liberal”.

However, she has extended the olive branch to Republicans, emphasising a bipartisan message, something that may help her claw back the three and half point lead that Perdue holds.

Arguing the toss-ups

The problem for the Democrats is that of those toss-ups, just two are Republican seats, meaning that the Democrats have more to lose. Many of those states, it bears reminding, backed Mitt Romney in 2012.

What that means is that, according to FiveThirtyEight, the Republicans have a 57.5% likelihood of taking the Senate.

While that is in no way an insurmountable gap for the Dems to bridge, it will be a tough five weeks for Obama and company.

Read: Explainer: What is happening with the US mid-term elections?

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35 Comments
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    Mute Patrick Agnew
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:28 PM

    This is exactly the kind of thing that a hard border will encourage.

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    Mute Ciarán Ó Fallúin
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:52 PM

    @Patrick Agnew: The potential for a hard border is no excuse for such cowardice though.

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    Mute Mushy Peas
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:35 PM

    @Patrick Agnew: sadly, it will have to take some deaths from a border explosion like this in order to get through the thick skulls in Westminster.

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    Mute Patrick Agnew
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:00 PM

    @Ciarán Ó Fallúin: also, they’ve gutted the Defence Forces presence along the border. Monaghan, Cootehill, Cavan, Castleblayney, Letterkenny and Lifford have all been closed and the personnel moved elsewhere. All that local knowledge and experience lost.

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    Mute Ciarán Ó Fallúin
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:22 PM

    @Mushy Peas: sadly, language like this, justifying future atrocities will help convince those who would “take up the cause”. We need to condemn this outright, not explain why it’s happened and how it’s not the offenders fault.

    35
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    Mute Mushy Peas
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:37 PM

    @Ciarán Ó Fallúin: I really couldn’t disagree more.

    Violence on the streets of Derry last week, unrelated to Brexit, and now an attack on the police force of the state. Regardless what you think of the PSNI, an attack on police should be condemned entirely.

    My point, was that the actions of the Westminster MPs have led us to this situation. A situation that should not have been allowed to happen (pointing the finger at the EU as well).

    Why is me stating a fact turned into justifying future violence. That’s poor debate when we don’t call out things for what they are. And if anything, prolongs bad situations.

    36
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    Mute Ciarán Ó Fallúin
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    Aug 19th 2019, 6:57 PM

    @Mushy Peas: That after ten years of economic stagnation in the North following the recession and subsequent cuts didn’t lead to outright fighting on the streets of Derry has been a source of surprise and joy for me. That we’re seeing a deterioration now should be condemned of course, but we can do that without also claiming there’s some justified reason(/excuse) like Brexit. It only sets us up for worse again.

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    Mute Michael Campbell
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:39 PM

    Nobody in their right mind wants to back to this !

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    Mute ted hagan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:41 PM

    @Michael Campbell: Judging by comments made in recent days on this site, there are some that do.

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    Mute Skybloo
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:30 PM

    @ted hagan: you are deliberately twisting people’s comments that are not surprised at this happening again. Not surprised and ‘wanting’ this to happen are two different things.
    If the PSNI do not balance their language and approach to both sides of the community, they will have a repeat of the troubles – the PSNI will need to accept some responsibility here for stoking the flames.

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    Mute Garreth Mc Mahon
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:03 PM

    @Skybloo: I can’t believe I’m saying this but in fairness to the psni they tried that last week with the pipe band and got bollocking from dup. They are slowly changing(very slowly) but they will never please both sides

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:17 PM

    @Skybloo: rubbish

    21
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    Mute Skybloo
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:41 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: you’re entitled to your opinion but not to your facts. The fact is there is an imbalance.
    If the PSNI call loyalist protagonists ‘paramilitaries’ and Republicans ‘terrorists’, then there is imbalance. Either they are all terrorists or all paramilitaries.
    If the PSNI are talking of the loyalist community needing understanding and dialogue, then the same tone and approach needs to be taken towards the Republican communities – instead of blame game accusing these ‘terrorists’ of ‘hate crimes’. So I’m afraid your simple comment is what it is – simple.

    33
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    Mute ted hagan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:57 PM

    @Skybloo: I said that comments on this site clearly have shown support for violent republicanism. That is undeniable.

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    Mute ted hagan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:01 PM

    @Skybloo: Why are you not condemning the attempted murder of police officers rather than splitting hairs?

    13
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    Mute Skybloo
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:15 PM

    @ted hagan:
    please back up your statement with proof. I have not seen any that support ‘violent’ republicanism. I think the Journal would actually take down such.
    Secondly, I condemn all violence against any human or animal – but to support my comment above, I do not condemn one more than the other. Do you condemn the loyalist actions?

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:15 PM

    @Garreth Mc Mahon: if the don’t please either side then they are doing their job right!

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:21 PM

    @Skybloo: the labels are interchangeable. For personal reasons I have the deepest hatred for creatures like this no matter what side they are on or what they prefer to be called. Only one description fits all ..murdering cowards.

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    Mute Skybloo
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:27 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: the labels are not interchangeable everywhere and for everyone, for certain groups of people they can be validation and recognition. For others, a label is demeaning, patronising and insulting. Balance in speech, non-bias, communication and dialogue are necessary to engage. Otherwise people will see the PSNI as just the old guard with a new name.

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    Mute Kenneth Hayden
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:17 PM

    Here we go…!

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    Mute John kane
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:19 PM

    @Kenneth Hayden: Ok. Safe journey

    136
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    Mute Clifford Brennan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:29 PM

    Bomb disposal teams had just disarmed a large primary device. The bomb that exploded was a secondary device placed nearby. Nasty. Definitely intended to target disposal teams/ police attending.

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    Mute Michael McCormack
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:32 PM

    Those responsible need locking up for good.

    183
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    Mute John Flood
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:03 PM

    Not in my name!

    131
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    Mute Ronan Skelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:22 PM

    @John Flood: I don’t think the idiots who did this care about your name…or mine for that matter John

    38
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    Mute James Kelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:54 PM

    No coincidence with the U.K. threatening a hard Brexit but Varadkar needs to stop posturing and get to grips with the real issue of the so called Backstop and tell his Euro chums to get real and agree a construct that saves face all round and does not place either the U.K. or ROI in breach of the Good Friday Agreement . No one wants to go backwards.

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    Mute davey boy
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:06 PM

    @James Kelly: You really don’t have any real grasp on the situation do you?

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    Mute Sean Lynch
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:19 PM

    @davey boy:
    To be honest I thought it was only a matter of time .

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    Mute James Kelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:23 PM

    @davey boy: I don’t claim to have any grasp on the situation. My point is not Brexit or whatever manifestation it takes but the imperative for both the U.K. and Irish governments to come up with a construct that does not place them in breach of their obligations under the GFA and in the process hopefully avoid incidents like this latest one in Fermanagh. It’s too important to be posturing over a so called Backstop. I hope I’ve clarified my point.

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    Mute Stephen Devlin
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:57 PM

    @James Kelly: It’s up to the UK to come up with the solution, as of yet no solution has been provided. Hence the backstop.

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    Mute Ronan Skelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:13 PM

    @James Kelly: they did..it’s called the backstop

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    Mute David Stapleton
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:16 PM

    @Stephen Devlin: the backstop was the UK’s solution….

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    Mute John Horan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:55 PM

    @David Stapleton: then why don’t the vote it through parliament and get on with it.

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    Mute OwenK74
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    Aug 19th 2019, 6:07 PM

    @James Kelly: Well done James the first constructive comment

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    Mute Kieran Monaghan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:39 PM

    Ye can feck off with your bombs, shower of wasters.

    182
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    Mute Donal Carey
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    Aug 19th 2019, 12:28 PM

    Will the Politicians now get off there behinds or are they waiting for a couple of funerals first for once act first .

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    Mute Garreth Mc Mahon
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:05 PM

    @Donal Carey: they won’t care in London, more people killed over there this year through gang violence and they haven’t done anything to stop that

    42
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    Mute Peter Carroll
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:57 PM

    @Garreth Mc Mahon: I think his remarks were aimed at the Stormont absentees.

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    Mute Patrick O Connell
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:36 PM

    @Donal Carey: stop their salaries until they form a functioning government

    12
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    Mute Doire
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:07 PM

    @Patrick O Connell: dry up patrick i voted for someone to stand up for my rights and thats what they are doing. Nolonger second class citizens

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    Mute paul
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:12 PM

    @Doire: you voted for somebody not to work ? You voted for them not to take their seats or have a voice ? Just a protest vote then, worse than useless !

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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 10:10 PM

    @paul: they do work just not in Storment ya

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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:50 PM

    Mi5 terrorists up to their old tricks

    61
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    Mute Simon Johnson
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:51 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: This reeks of a Brit inside job to me. The boys have been this quiet during the entire process for this exact reason and wouldn’t be that stupid and blow their cover like this, wouldn’t want to to draw heat to their selves. This screams of a Brit set-up to prove their point regarding the border.

    36
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    Mute paul
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:13 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: omfg, take your tinfoil hat off, you fool.

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:23 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: share with us all your evidence for MI5 involvement…

    12
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:25 PM

    @Simon Johnson: another intelligence officer I see here good luck to you and your fantasy

    11
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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:38 PM

    @paul: did you ever hear of the Dublin and Monghan bombings

    22
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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:38 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: who was it then

    11
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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:40 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: sheep like you would believe anything lol

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    Mute paul
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:15 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: of course ! But why only mention those ? Lots of bombs used to kill innocents in england !

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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:41 PM

    @paul: sorry but what comes out of army tanks and fighter jets the British army use in their wars do they not kill people to.

    9
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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:45 PM

    @paul: the majority of the people killed by the British during the troubles were innocent civilians theres another fact for ya

    11
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    Mute paul
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:49 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: yes i know british army kills. But tell me how you justify bombs the bombs against the police today ??

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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 7:39 PM

    @paul: i dont justify British terrorism you do ya may ask the MI5 thats their job to cause conflict.

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    Mute paul
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    Aug 19th 2019, 7:59 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: haha, ok, you’re delusional ! If it was an irish man who planted the bomb would you condemn it ?

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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 10:09 PM

    @paul: yes

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    Mute Aidan Mccullough
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:20 PM

    The English were warned about this.

    39
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    Mute paul
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:12 PM

    @Aidan Mccullough: warned about what ? Planting bombs ? Even before a possible border ? They are the biggest shower of cowardly, thick, losers !

    25
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:21 PM

    @Aidan Mccullough: it wasn’t the English that planted the bomb, it was Irish people who probably don’t possess a brain cell between them all. Any excuse to cause their own little war. Let’s hope Karma visits them soon…

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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:39 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: any evidence to back up your lies

    15
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    Mute Peter D W Clancy
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    Aug 20th 2019, 5:01 PM

    @Seamus Donnelly: Any evidence to back up your Mi5 claim or are you just telling lies yourself Mr Kettle?

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:17 PM

    Didn’t take long for our brave freedom fighters and part time drug dealers to show their hand.

    36
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    Mute Seamus Donnelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 5:17 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: i didnt know Mi5 dealed drugs as well them baxters.

    15
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    Mute David Grey
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:06 PM

    James. Is this the magic solution Borris had in mind your suggesting .

    18
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    Mute James Kelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:26 PM

    @David Grey: I’m not sure what you mean or what magic solution, if any, which Boris has in mind. My point is that the situation is far too sensitive to be involved in posturing over a so called Backstop if one of the alternatives is more bombing, killing and maiming none of which is worth any so called Backstop.

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    Mute Ronan Skelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:17 PM

    @James Kelly: the backstop was designed, negotiated with the EU,UK and Ireland to protect the gfa..the only posturing is from the British side who actually negotiated this…it was just when may formed a government with the DUP that this solution negotiated by the British government became unacceptable…cop on…this is the only viable solution while the UK hold on to part of Ireland

    42
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    Mute Nell foran
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:25 PM

    This is what faces us if Boris doesn’t get a grip and start actually trying to find a solution. A no deal has no other outcome but a hard border and this kind of murderous Magen back on our shores and in both sides of the border.

    20
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    Mute Simon Johnson
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:49 PM

    I know 80s and 90s nostalgia is big right right now because of Stranger Things and Buzzfeed but this is taking it too far

    15
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    Mute Alan Carthy
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:06 PM

    Why the electorate not protest against there politicians for not taking there seats in assembly or for that in parliament

    16
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    Mute Doire
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:21 PM

    @Alan Carthy: forget about the assembly, stormont is dead move on to next chapter.

    23
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    Mute Ronan Skelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:18 PM

    @Doire: agreed!

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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:26 PM

    @Doire: you wish?

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    Mute Doire
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    Aug 19th 2019, 3:29 PM

    @Gus Sheridan: i hope and i wish

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    Mute Darren B
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:30 PM

    Wouldn’t surprise me if it was Saoradh again (same spas that murdered Lyra McKee). Oxygen thieving gangsters.

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    Mute Nigel Barlow
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    Aug 20th 2019, 12:26 AM

    @Darren B: if they want to be so heroic strap bomb bels to them and set them free in isis held territory in Syria

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    Mute Jmc
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:58 PM

    I’m after living through one war indont want to go back to where my children see another war the DUP and the new British government and previous governments especially the one under Thatcher brought us to out knees. No1 want to go back to the 80s 90s no1 certainly not me. We need to go the distance and Mancy perscoli is behind the GFA 100% so we need to stand firm to a no hard boarder.

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    Mute Steven Moens
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:54 PM

    This is not just a bomb placed literally on the border. This is an attack on Police, policing in Fermanagh is probably as close and in cooperation with the vast majority of the public as it gets anywhere in these islands, army technical officers and the nearby communities of Fermanagh, Cavan and Monaghan.

    Hardly anyone in that area has any interest in this sort of nonsense.
    For years now the only giving out that has been done around there by the vast majority of people about the Police is having an ole whine if they get stung for a speeding ticket.

    There’s no need not justification to try and bring that part of the world back to the eighties.

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    Mute Nigel Barlow
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    Aug 20th 2019, 12:22 AM

    @Steven Moens: well articulated.

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    Mute James Kelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 1:32 PM

    I don’t profess to have any solution in mind or a grasp of any situation but a so called Backstop is no substitute for the preservation of lives should there be a hard border in breach of the GFA. Varadkar is on record as stating there will be “troops on the border” but never specified whose troops. They would need to be Irish troops of course if he is to preserve the integrity of the Treaty of Rome and all it’s iterations but somehow I don’t see the Irish citizenry buying that .

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    Mute Ronan Skelly
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:20 PM

    @James Kelly: I think that you said it all in your first two sentences…you have no grasp or understanding of the situation.

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    Mute David Stapleton
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    Aug 19th 2019, 2:36 PM

    @James Kelly: please check what the backstop, proposed by the UK, actually is before commenting further.

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    Mute liam whelan
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    Aug 20th 2019, 12:26 AM

    I was fishing up that way yesterday and the road was closed off after 10am there about. 24+ hours before a bomb went off? Couple of friends that I was fishing with were talking to psni officers and told them there was a “device found” along the road.

    2
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    Mute Tony Mc Grath
    Favourite Tony Mc Grath
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    Aug 19th 2019, 4:29 PM

    Four legs good, two legs bad. Two legs good, four legs bad.

    2
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Nigel Barlow
    Favourite Nigel Barlow
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    Aug 20th 2019, 12:19 AM

    B@@&&&&- catch them and send them to Syria to be used as cannon fodder.

    2
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