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VOTING HAS BEGUN in the Ukrainian parliamentary elections today.
The snap election, coming eight months after a street revolt overthrew Moscow-backed president Viktor Yanukovych, is expected to result in a legislature filled with reformers and nationalists backing President Petro Poroshenko’s drive to bring Ukraine closer to the West.
Voters
However, Poroshenko’s party is unlikely to win a straight majority, meaning he may have to seek a coalition with more radical nationalists suspicious of his attempts to negotiate peace with pro-Russian rebels controlling a swathe of the country’s industrial east.
The trauma of some 3,700 deaths in the fighting, and Russia’s earlier annexation of the southern Crimean region, set a grim backdrop to an election originally intended as a finishing touch to Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolution.
Voters in Crimea and in separatist-controlled areas of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces — about five million of Ukraine’s 36.5 million-strong electorate — were effectively shut out from the election. Twenty seven seats in the 450-seat parliament will remain empty.
Country’s future
As a result, the previously peaceful divide between the mostly Russian-speaking and Russia-leaning east and the more Ukrainian-speaking west has become a deadly — and increasingly formal — faultline threatening the country’s future.
The Petro Poroshenko Bloc is forecast to emerge as the leading party of what Poroshenko described on the eve of voting as “an entirely new parliament” that was “reforming, not corrupt, pro-Ukrainian and pro-European, not pro-Soviet”.
For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Communist Party was not expected to clear the five-percent barrier for entering parliament under proportional representation. Poroshenko, elected president in May with 55 percent of the vote, hopes that failure represents an irreversible political shift.
Polls show a majority of Ukrainians support economic and democratic reforms — especially a crackdown on corruption — leading eventually to European Union membership.
Peace talks and nationalism
However, there is less unity over how to resolve the dismemberment of the country in Russia’s occupation of Crimea and the separatist battle in the east.
A Moscow-backed truce signed by Kiev and the separatists on September 5 has calmed the worst fighting, although there are daily violations around the largest rebel-held city Donetsk.
Insurgent leaders, who are not allowing polling stations to open in their areas, have announced their own leadership vote, which Kiev does not recognise, on November 2.
Poroshenko insisted Saturday that there could be “no military solution” to the conflict.
“No criticism, no matter how acute and painful, will stop me from finding a peaceful way out of the current situation,” Poroshenko said.
Polls opened at 6am (GMT) and close at 6pm (GMT).
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Very ominous in Ukraine. Poroshenko looks like his party will enter coalition with “radical nationalists” ie Nazi freaks. Ukraine is utterly broke and Poroshenkos trip to the US landed him a mere few million dollars, not enough to keep up the eastern terror campaign for more than a few hours. The only thing preventing a full scale murderous attack in the East is the knowledge of certain defeat before elections. With elections over tomorrow it doesn’t take a genius to work out that Poroshenkos terror campaign will likely restart.
You used the word “Nazi” only once – a new record, I think, John – congrats!
The sad thing is that anyone is considered better than the Russians by most Ukrainians. Latest invasion reminding them of the Russian genocides of the 1930′s.
Anyway thankfully Putin is on the back foot. Economy shrinking, rouble down 30% and military budget being cut next year. Can’t survive oil at $80 a barrel forever. I’d give him 18 months if the price doesn’t recover.
It will be interesting to see where the US shale and fracking industries will be in 18 months if the price of oil doesn’t recover. Shale and fracking are only economically viable at prices above the current oil price. It seems the beneficiaries of this sudden oil price decline are neither the Russians nor the Americans. The Saudis alone have suddenly increased their capacity without OPEC agreement. The thing about shale and fracking is that there are huge startup costs and you cannot shut it down and restart without huge capital investment. Someone is trying to put pressure on both the Americans and the Russians. Maybe the Chinese are the dark horse here, they are certainly very friendly with the Saudis these days.
Shale fracking is viable at $65 dollars a barrel in the US. While you weren’t looking they ferocious competitive pressure drove down costs.
I know you support Russia so you want shale to be high cost but it isn’t anymore. You need to follow these things more closely.
It’s not even high tech things. A roughneck on the Bakken was getting $200,000 a year and a room was $1000 a week. Well they have built more man camps and there are more people in the area working.
Actually read your whole comment now. Shale gas had the lowest capital investment project level in the biz.
It’s relatively capital intensive but it consists of lots of individual wells. Russian Arctic project might be $80 billion before a barrel flows, it’s around $5 million per additional well for shale.
Plus the Wells only last around 3 years so it’s flexible. Prices drop you drill less you soon have less oil. Prices rise you drill more you have more oil.
A traditional oil project you do the sums for 20 years and hope you are right.
Wsj paints a different picture
http://m.wsj.com/articles/fracking-firms-get-tested-by-oils-price-drop-1412899027?mobile=y
CREDIT SUISSE (Sept. 30) BASIN BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE PER BARREL Marcellus Shale – SW liquids rich $24.23 Marcellus Shale – Super Rich $25.63 Utica – Wet gas $32.39 Mississippian Horizontal – East $42.15 Utica – Liquids Rich $44.04 Eagle Ford – Liquids Rich $46.05 Niobrara – Wattenberg $46.10 Wolfcamp – N. Midland (Horizontal) $53.92 Eagle Ford – Oil Window $55.29 Wolfcamp – S. Midland (Horizontal) $61.57 Mississippian Horizontal – West $64.05 Wolfberry $64.63 Bakken Shale $64.74 Wolfcamp – N. Delaware (Horizontal) $68.54 Uinta – Green River $68.77 Uinta – Wasatch (H) $72.15 Granite Wash – Liquids Rich $73.10 Horizontal Uinta – Wasatch (V) $74.95 Barnett Shale – Southern Liquids $84.45 Rich
MORGAN STANLEY (Oct. 14) “U.S. oil shale is moving down the cost curve and adding to the global oil production mix as operators continue to improve drilling and fracturing performance – essentially getting more from shale wells for less capex.” “U.S. shale is now no longer the marginal barrel, with cash breakevens in some major U.S. shale plays having dropped by up to $30 per barrel since 2012.”
ROBERT W. BAIRD EQUITY RESEARCH (Oct. 14) “We estimate $73 as the weighted average breakeven point for U.S. supply.” SHALE FIELD BREAKEVEN OIL PRICE PER BARREL Eagle Ford Liquids Rich $53 Wolfcamp North Midland $57 Bakken Core $61 Niobrara Extension $64 Eagle Ford Oil $65 Niobrara Core $68 Wolfcamp South Midland $75 Bakken Non Core $75 Texas Panhandle $81 Mississippi Lime $84 Barnett Combo $93
This is American and EU accepted democracy here with chunks of the country that they don’t want represented not voting.
For the last 10/15 years Ukraine has been split closely on every election and if a Russian leaning president won then he was made to look like a shady bad guy.
For the US/EU anything is better than Russia even neo-Nazi. Putin of course is the evil bad guy, if he interfered in the elections in Canada or Mexico would to US accept it? no chance. The US aren’t interested in peace or democracy they’re only interested in having their finger in every pie.
They’ve made the world dangerous and highly unstable, destroyed and toppled nearly every leader across North Africa and the Middle East then wonder why they’re viewed as Satan by the Arabs. If they haven’t overthrown your leader you’re painted like Iran. If you’re ruthlessly oppressive but do business on oil then you’re an ally.
Take Syria. They oppose Assad and want him gone. The groups they give weapons and support to in Syria and the groups they’re bombing in Iraq because they’re opposition on a different side of a non existent border in the desert.
They’re trying to back a country like Russia who have always been historically strong and proud into a corner and keep kicking and prodding with sticks. The Chinese economy in going to overtake the US so will they invade their neighbours and hurt China that way? Oh wait they’ve already anticipated this an have bases in Japan and Korea.
General Wesley Clarke went on a chat show in 2007 and said the US was going to attack 7 countries in 5 years and each year I watched them fall 1 by 1. The neocons will end up in the Hague for their crimes
@Joe
Its not Kiev, the US or the EU that are preventing people in the east from voting.
No chance they will ever answer for anything. It’s all in the name of freedom and democracy baby.
Democracy that two parties who ideologically so similar they’ve a single party state. Run by billionaires for billionaires. Like what other rich country in the world can a city be declared bankrupt like Detroit. Or hundreds of schools in deprived areas like LA that have one book between a whole class. This system is not an example for anyone.
And here was me thinking this thread was about Ukraine…
Come on Avina they’ve stuck a wedge through the country and stoked up ethnic tensions in order to cut eastern Ukraine off so they can bring the west into the EU and into the hands of the Nato warmongers. The US/EU don’t want the eastern half in the mix because of the possibility Ukraine will again democratically elect another Russian leaning government.
With respect Joe, you have that a bit arseways. All opinion polls over the last decade have shown that the majority favour closer ties to Europe. Are you aware that even Yanukovych stood on an election platform of moving closer to europe whilst maintaining ties with Moscow?
After his departure it was pretty clear that the majority in the subsequent election were still looking westwards, which is why pro-Moscow factions refused to allow a democratic vote to take place in the East, not the other way round.
I think Kiev would be delighted if countrywide elections were to take place as it would confirm their overall democratic mandate (before you jump down my throat I’ve always said that the people of the East and Crimea should have the right to self-determination). They’re certainly not trying to prevent the East from voting for fear of getting a pro-Moscow president – the opinion polls are pretty clear on this.
Remember this?:
http://youtu.be/yc5k5s9_Kvs
I would like to invite the red thumbers to my post on General Clarke’s revelations , to respond to why such a comment would meet with your disapproval.Was it the fact that you did not believe it was in fact General Clarke? maybe it was some imposter or actor? was it the number of countries or the timespan you disagree with? Maybe you don’t agree that both conspiracy to wage aggressive war and waging aggressive war are not really international crimes as laid out under counts 1 and 2 at the Nuremberg trials? Did you not like my reference to the international criminal court in the Hague where such crimes are tried? Would love to know your wisdom on this
You got at least one red thumb for bringing up a 2007 interview on an obscure US chat show given by a prospective US Democratic presidential candidate who was taking the opportunity to go after Rebublican foreign policy and who went on later to endorse President Obama. Your comments about ” counts ” in Nuremburg are irrelevant unless you can prove a specific crime…nobody else has..actually you got a red thumb because you are just going out of your way to be Anti-American on a thread that was about Ukraine.
Regardless of the type of show or Clarke’s ambitions the General was referring to conversations in the Pentagon years earlier before the attack in Iraq and he said that the attack on Iraq was premeditated and without proof. The attacks where also without UN approval and therefore illegal. Your comments on the irrelevance of Nuremberg is just childish and shows you don’t understand the charges. I was also replying to another post where wests aggression was brought up. I am not anti American just anti war. Many Americans feel the same way, does that make them anti American? I think the international community should get together to resolve conflicts via the UN and that should apply to all. Any one country including that attempts to resolve conflicts unilaterally and without UN approval is on a very dangerous path indeed.
The Crimean people have already had their election and voted to join Russia, the separatists will have their own vote on 2nd November and no doubt will vote overwhelmingly for independence.
The Ukraine is now a divided a country, Crimea and DPR are not coming back no matter what today’s predictable result outcome is.
Kool Tiger, the separatists have already been caught out on falsifying the results of their “referendum” in both Crimea and the eastern oblasts. The results on the 2nd of November will be a repeat of their habit of falsifying results.
I think you will find that overall turnout was considerably higher than 20% if that’s what you meant by “frequency”
Is that Gerry carrying in the voting papers
Don’t count on Ukraine joining the EU anytime soon. As Junker said this week during his EU presidential speech it will take at least five years before anyone else is able to join due to strict new euro currency controls.
Ukraine will never be allowed join. Too many poor people who would be able to move under EU freedom of movement. Enough stress on EU internal movement as it is.
Ditto the reasons why Turkey was never allowed in aswell
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