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THE GOVERNMENT WILL clock up a bigger deficit than expected next year because of the hit to the public purse from Irish Water, the ESRI says.
In its latest quarterly economic commentary, the economic think-tank said the forecast revenue from water charges in 2015 was “likely to be less positive than previously expected” after developments over the past 3 months.
That would force the government to boost its subsidies to the controversial semi-state agency and would punch a bigger hole in the budget deficit – which the ESRI predicted would stand at 2.4% next year.
It had forecast a deficit of only 2.1% in its previous commentary, which came out about a week before the Budget was handed down.
But the ESRI noted the government faced an even bigger time bomb in the form of Irish Water’s market test from the European Commission, which it need to pass to keep the quango off its balance sheet.
If it fails to receive at least 50% of its revenue from private sources, its borrowing must be included in the general government deficit, which poses a further risk to the 2015 deficit forecast,” the commentary said.
The ESRI predicted the government would have to spend an extra €200 million on total subsidies next year when compared to 2014.
The market test
Last month Environment Minister Alan Kelly announced a cut-price regime of water charges in the form of two flat rates that will last until the end of 2018.
The government said the two rates – capped at €60 a year for single-person households and €160 for all others – would bring in €271 million, on top of €229 from businesses.
In return, it expected to have to hand over €399 million for Irish Water’s operating expenses – 44% of the total, or about €50 million less than the maximum allowed under the market test.
But one recent poll found one-third of all households would refuse to pay their water charges.
Meanwhile, the government said it was targeting one million registrations by Christmas – although to meet its domestic income target it needs virtually all eligible households to get on board.
Unemployment down, growth up
Elsewhere, the ESRI predicted unemployment would reach its lowest point since 2008 next year and would fall to “just over” 9.5% during the year.
That would include nearly 50,000 more people being in work than this year, although it expected only a 1% rise in average hourly earnings for workers after several years of falling wages.
Economic growth would be over 4.5% according to both Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP), which many consider a better measure as it only gauges income that stays in domestic hands.
“This reflects increases in personal consumption and particularly stronger growth in investment than had previously been anticipated,” the commentary said.
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Happy Christmas Don I hope you have a better 2021
From the start of the article I was tears. I’m so glad Alone is there and I really hope you know that so many people will be thinking of you this Christmas xx
I left my job in residential support this morning, after an overnight shift, excited at the prospect that some of our residents would be going home, delighted their families would see them. And then a few hours later I had to have a cry in the shower because all of the form filling,risk assement and families who have self isolated for the last 2 weeks means nothing.
If people haven’t been affected directly they don’t care or seem to understand.
I wouldn’t even say I am angry. I’m just so disappointed in people to be honest to be honest
@Sarah Murphy: Hi Sarah, is this because of the inter county travel restrictions after 26th? Surely we can start a petition or mass email ministers about this….would love to know more details
@Ali Ryan: thanks so much for your comment…. there is a few factors — inter county travel is one factor for sure, but another such as the resident returning back and not having sufficient space/staff to be quarantined for 2 weeks for the safety of other residents and staff is also a major factor. Unfortunately operating under all the different guidelines is difficult for everyone involved, you have to think of the individual’s safety,the famiy safety, the other people in the care of the service and the staff. I understand everyone is trying their best at this time and I hate to be negative about things but it’s like trying to swim upstream
@Sarah Murphy: That’s so disappointing, especially as you say given that families of residents have been making such sacrifices by isolating in advance of their lived ones coming home.
I’m disgusted that all of this careful hard work by yourselves and the families for such deserving people is now being cast aside due to last min goc decisions, which of course are necessary, but it’s a complete slap in the face when gyms, pubs, and other non-essential shops and services are all still open and, in many cases, packed due to lack of enforcement.
@Ali Ryan: Totally agree. But all we can do is just make it a lovely Christmas for them and hope the wifi can handle all the video calls!!! I appreciate your sentiment and I hope you have a lovely Christmas x
I’m angry, disappointed, and very sad at how general society is really not all that interested in the elderly or disabled. As soon as crisis hit, they were the first to be expendable. I hope Don has a better 2021 and hope he can remember there are still a lot of decent people who do care about others. Good on him for speaking out and reaching out.
Sorry you are feeling this way Don, but let’s not blame the people but the lads in charge who seem to think they know what’s best.
@Seosamh: ya sap
@Seosamh: another fake account
@Seosamh: Right… because covid is a government conspiracy and being transmitted by those pesky 5g towers right?
@Seosamh: Don’t the lads in charge get their advice from those thar do in fact know best? Muppet.
@Seosamh: So you think the Government are holding house parties, gathering in large groups, ignoring social distancing and mask rules?
Who else but the public are to blame!!
@Mick.: Sure aren’t the government to blame for tossing the elderly out of hospitals and back into their nursing homes where a lot of them passed away from neglect… Alan Kelly on a bus/train with no mask, golf gate no restrictions there..MSM rte having great parties with no social distancing and mask wearing..hhmmm you are right, must be the publics fault
@Seosamh: daftest comment I’ve ever seen on the journal.ie, and that’s saying something
@Edward Natali: you’ve assumed that’s my opinion. They don’t have a clue what to do.
@Seosamh: what’s your solution?
@Aaron O Brien: you forgot the IRA funeral….
@Seosamh: WHAT !!!THANKFULLY YOU ARE NOT IN CHARGR
Happy Christmas Don,my 90 year old nanna lives alone.I ring her regularly and my dad(67) sends food down to her via Tesco..unfortunately she lives in Dublin and we live in Laois. Due to her age we only drop up when we are not in lockdown and have social distance visits in her garden….lockdown again she will also be spending Christmas alone which is very upsetting
@Sandra Conlan: There will be no lockdown in effect on Xmas day.
Angry at someone who walks for 3km instead of 2Km but fine with thousands of people coming in from the north because they’re not breaking any rules…..
Its a virus that transmits very very easily. There is no reward for anger at anyone who didnt live to the spirit of restrictions. People are human and will seek connection. Its a shitty time for all involved and will hopefully be over sometime in 2021. Dissapointing news today but we can hold on to hope that this will pass. Chin up pal.
@Damien McDaid: agreed but I think those of us that followed the guidelines are allowed be angry at those who didn’t. It was never going to disappear but it shouldn’t be this bad if everyone did as they were asked
@D: it wouldn’t be this bad the state stuck to their word and sorted the health service out. The public is being blamed to hide their failings.
@Damien McDaid: Making excuses for those to selfish that couldn’t follow a few every simple rules, simply doesn’t cut it.
The vast majority of the country have done everything thing required of them, but a few self centered selfish cu#t’s with no regard for anyone else have brought this down on us all.
@Mícheál Seán Mac Conmhaic: Nothing to do with whether our health service is good or bad. In fact, if we currently had 3500 ICU beds instead of 350 we would arguably be in a worse place regarding severe illness and deaths. We currently have to bring in restrictions earlier than most countries in order to protect out limited hospital capacity. More capacity would mean not having to restrict so early meaning more spread, more hospitalisations, more ICU admissions and more deaths. And by the way, we have never run out of ICU beds in this country even with the supposedly small numbers of beds we have. If we had had double the amount just lying idle for years people would have been complaining about the waste of money.
@Mick.: Not making excuses just saying theres no reward for being angry.
@Damien McDaid: I don’t believe it’s up to anyone to tell anyone else how they should feel about people who break guidelines and make life harder for others. Don’s feelings are absolutely valid and much better expressed than held in to make him suffer in silence.
@Mícheál Seán Mac Conmhaic: I really do not see what “sorting the health service” has to do with it. 1000 spare ICU beds and 10,000 hospital beds will not save any more lives than have been saved today because thankfully our heath services were never stretched to capacity and we always had space beds unlike parts of the UK and Northern Ireland and Sweden and Belgium and Russia …
In fact has we more spare capacity then people looking at low usage might just decide to act even more reckless… and allow the figures get to 1000 ICU cases before taking action… so maybe careful ICU bed management encouraged compliance and saved lives.
What do you think the sate should do specifically – we have enough beds and ICU capacity and can draw on reserves if needed. We did not have to build prefab hospitals in car parks.
Whether we like it or not our health service does not transmit the virus the public do. It is the failing of the public that has things this bad and trying to blame anyone else is deflecting…
In saying the “failing of the public” it may often be without blame but the five individuals, who imported the A20.EU1 strain from Spain at the end of July and that has been detected in 60% of the wave 2 genetic samples in Ireland and 80% of genetic samples, may have travelled against advice or failed to isolate upon arrival in Ireland (direct or via the UK).
We know of another who came back via Belfast and infected 13 (I think) members of their own family upon arrival… they told their own story to explain to others how important following the advice was.
No amount of ICU beds or health services “fixing” would have changed the outcome it is the small and often forgetful or instinctive actions that can cause issues… someone used to shaking hands may slip up onec or forget to wash hands as they fumble to turn off the alarm or switch on lights in the dark. I am giving these as examples where no one is to blame but the people who deliberately break the rules are certainly to blame (not all but some) who actually knowingly ignore the advice, fail to isolate and thereby spread the virus – these people are responsible for infection spread, resulting in hospitalisations, ICU cases and deaths.
@Damien McDaid: point well taken, and maybe anger is the wrong word in this context as it must be a combination of despair and sadness and a feeling of being cheated by those who do not care. It could be a sad anger rather than a rage anger – but I cannot speak for others just those I know myself.
@Damien McDaid: no, those of us who have stuck to restrictions are allowed to be angry at those who haven’t. Making excuses for them just doesn’t cut it as someone else said. We’re all only human and we all seek connection. This is not an excuse to not give a damn about restrictions
2Km exercise circle, €9 meals……you’re upset with the wrong people
@Damien Grogan: you can be upset with both the government and the public you know?
I heard somebody got food poisoning in a restaurant and died. Even though they were 82 years old, obese and had several underlying health issues I want all restaurants shut down and everyone to order takeout until nobody ever gets food poisoning again. Anyone who challenges me or says I’m crazy needs to be attacked and ridiculed and called an anti-takeout
@Bar O’Choc: Just to clarify your analogy. The elderly are old, hand could have underlying health issues and might die from covid, but that’s alright because the majority of people will survive the virus? I wonder if you’d be thinking the same way if you were in their shoes…
@Edward Natali: *and* not hand
@Bar O’Choc: but would you go back to the same restaurant a day or two later and the hsa hadn’t looked into it?
I think not!
This is a propaganda post to brainwash society with the nonsense from the Gov. lockdowns don’t work simple!
Are you taking vitamin D supplements?
People stop blaming the government there not rising the cases the people are if they will just listen am do what there advised to do sooner cases come down and lockdowns stop
have your say