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Then-taoiseach Bertie Ahern, pictured in 2007 Eamonn Farrell/Photocall Ireland

Ireland's economy should soon be back where it started - except for all that debt

How about we start from scratch?

Updated at 5.03pm

IRELAND’S ECONOMY IS expected to hit its pre-recession peak this year – eight years after the nation’s finances started to plunge into a devastating downward spiral.

Davy Research has predicted the country’s final GDP growth figure for 2014 would be 4.8% and the tally this year would be 3.7%.

That would mean Ireland’s total economic output returned to its 2007 peak again this year – one year earlier than Davy had predicted in mid-year forecasts.

It also expected unemployment to average 9.6% this year before falling to 7% in 2017.

In contrast, Ireland’s official jobless rate in 2007 was below 5% – which represents what is considered to be full employment.

That year general government debt stood at €47 billion – or 24% of GDP – compared to the current figure of €203 billion, about 111% of GDP.

All sectors performing again

In a report today, Davy chief economist Conall Mac Coille said the better-than-expected growth forecasts came from the country’s strong export performance – with IT, pharmaceuticals and domestic producers all doing well.

And we expect that Ireland will continue to compete effectively for foreign direct investment despite the end of the ‘double-Irish’ tax structure,” he said.

The government announced in last year’s budget that it was phasing out the controversial loophole, instead putting in place a “knowledge-development box” to give tax breaks for research and development.

It recently predicted the country could return to full employment by 2018.

Catching up this year

Mac Coille said Ireland’s economy should catch up with the eurozone again this year and move ahead in 2016 when compared to pre-recession outputs.

Davy Davy Research Davy Research

But the country’s Gross National Product (GNP) – which many consider a more-accurate indicator as it strips out multinationals’ outputs that flow offshore – is still expected to lag behind the headline GDP figure over the coming years.

Mac Coille said many “hard-hit, domestic-facing sectors” needed to bounce back and supply problems in the construction industry could hold back further growth.

But he said the Central Bank’s new mortgage rules, announced last week, were not expected to have any impact on the Irish recovery.

READ: Enda Kenny says more tax cuts are on the way >

READ: Enda believes young people who left Ireland will be able to come home in 3 years >

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77 Comments
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    Mute Pixie McMullen
    Favourite Pixie McMullen
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 5:18 PM

    Jeez, but i hate to even read that word Heroin, it`s the scourge of so many towns and cities.

    226
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    Mute John Mc Donagh
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 5:49 PM

    @Pixie McMullen: More loot for the greedy lawyers!

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    Mute Jim Buckley Barrett
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 5:59 PM

    @John Mc Donagh: awful on those criminals breaking the law, making thy lawyers rich.

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    Mute MAJOR PAIN
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:05 PM

    A slap on the hand and a suspended sentence incoming

    58
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    Mute Mazza86
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:40 PM

    @MAJOR PAIN: With zero accountability either and people think the Gardaí are the problem…

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    Mute Bill Clay
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:09 PM

    Gards looking bad (again) to the public, start the spin machine with all the good news bust stories.
    I’m almost surprised theres not one of one of them walking an old lady across the street, but they’ve used that one already.

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    Mute Darcy
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:28 PM

    @Bill Clay:so according to you drugs worth 500k should not be reported in the news because it’ll only make the Gadai look good ? Are you not a believer of credit where it’s due ?

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    Mute Mazza86
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:37 PM

    @Bill Clay: To be fair, despite the bad press of a few, the vast majority, by and large, continue to conduct their duty professionally and with utmost diligence. In my opinion the good work of the majority of Gardaí is not highlighted enough and that goes for all first responders too.. So unless you’ve walked in their shoes you will have no idea of what they face on a daily basis to keep you and everyone else safe…

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    Mute Bill Clay
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:43 PM

    @Darcy: of course these stories are supposed to make them look good, that’s what their press office is for.
    But yes if more of these drugs were taken off the street well yes credit where it’s due.
    But that still doesn’t change the fact that they’re rotten to the core

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    Mute Darcy
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:58 PM

    @Bill Clay: again tarring everyone with the same brush ..some not all are

    26
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    Mute Sean
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 8:22 PM

    @Bill Clay: For fans of The Wire this is known as”drugs on the table” policing. The drugs are put on the table. There is a picture of them in the media possibly with the Garda Commissioner, the message goes out that a blow has been struck in the War on Drugs. The kicker is that nothing changes. Drug seizures are factored into the price charged for hard drugs in the same way that spillage is allowed for by breweries dealing with kegs of beer. The prohibition on drugs does have one noticeable side effect – it increases the price and the profits for the drug wholesalers, and at the end of the chain, the Mr. Bigs / Mrs. Bigs.

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    Mute Mary Dunphy
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    Dec 24th 2018, 12:14 AM

    Well done to the Gardai.

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    Mute Michael Carolan
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:06 PM

    There won’t be blow this Christmas

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    Mute Tom Lavin
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:09 PM

    Street value, now I don’t know where you get your cocaine from but its only worth 200,000

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    Mute mick scanlan
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 6:37 PM

    €500;000 not €480.000 Really

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    Mute Patrick Kilbane
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    Dec 23rd 2018, 7:55 PM

    Insert ‘White Christmas’ joke here

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    Mute Barra O Brien
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    Dec 24th 2018, 2:18 AM

    That’s Christmas ruined for a few people, Conor are you listening?

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