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BOKO HARAM, THE jihadist group, has terrorised northern Nigeria, killed over 6,000 people in 2014 and ransacked over a dozen communities along the the Nigerian side of Lake Chad in mid-January.
This group’s violence is the most ostensible reason for the delay of Nigeria’s upcoming presidential election and Boko Haram threatens to plunge Africa’s most populous country and largest economy – as well as some of its neighbours – into violent chaos.
But Boko Haram is hardly a static organisation. Its area of operation has shifted over the past few years, and it declared an Islamic state in the territory it controls in August 2014.
Considering the group killed 110 people in 2010 – a considerably smaller number than in recent years – and once seemed to harbour specific ambitions to declare its own Islamic state, it is difficult to predict how the organisation will proceed in the future – especially if Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s incumbent president, is replaced when a presidential vote is held as early as March.
Davin O’Regan, a researcher at the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies and a PhD candidate at the University of Maryland, created the following map for the Zurich-based International Relations and Security Network, to show where the group might be headed. He established the geographic mean centre of Boko Haram’s attacks for a given year, then weighted that mean based on the locations of the deadliest attacks (the math behind it all can be found here)
Each triangle on the map represents the physical centre of the group’s activities based on both the frequency and severity of its attacks. The ovals represent one standard deviation’s worth of distance from this geographic mean, giving a sense of where Boko Haram was operating in a given year )2012: blue; 2013: red; 2014: yellow).
This method of analysis and the resulting map makes it possible to visualise where and how the group is shifting its deadliest activities – information which may provide a glimpse into its future tactics.
In 2012, Boko Haram committed most of its attacks over a wider area than in subsequent years, and was deadliest in an area well to the west of where it now operates most frequently.
In 2013 and 2014, the geographic mean is appreciably close to Maiduguiri, a major city that Boko Haram attempted to take earlier this month. And in 2014, the oval reaches deep into neighbouring Cameroon.
Today, “a big proportion of the spike in fatalities in Boko Haram attacks is found in a relatively small region along the Cameroon-Nigerian border,” O’Regan told Business Insider. The group also “seems to ‘hug’ borders in general for the operational advantages they provide.
This actually goes against some conventional wisdom, as O’Regan explains, running “contrary to many claims about Boko Haram expanfing its control over vast stretches of territory and dramatically increasing its capabilities”. That’s not exactly what they’re doing. Instead, the group is moving towards the border.
“Despite Boko Haram’s growing lethiality and tactical sophistication, the group appears to be concentrating larger proportions of its resources in Nigeria’s more remote border areas,” O’Regan said.
The group’s activities are shifting east, towards the border with Cameroon, which is increasingly involved in the fighting against the group. Boko Haram is operating in a more remote and perhaps more limiter area. But it’s also turning into a trans-national threat, posing a problem that isn’t confined just to Nigeria.
- Armin Rosen.
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Judging by the map, it looks like they’re planning on building three Large Hadron Colliders.
hahahaha!
Maybe if they do invade Europe something will finally be done about them. The silence of the world is appalling. Even here in Ireland, we have demonstrations and boycotts of democratic countries encouraged by morons like People Before Profit, but not a word about this. Shocking double standards.
It’s because Israel is a democracy that is a major international exporter that people try protests and boycotts. Boko Haram and ISIS are not going to be threatened by either of those approaches
Let them invade Europe. They will meet more than defenseless schoolgirls
I wonder kevin. Think that Pamela Geller and Robert Spencer both very much specialist in understanding of Islam barred from the UK. Think also silence of the Dail on Nigeria a country close to the Irish through Irish Missionaries. Think of the hate charges and false charges of Islamofobia and steps afoot to ban criticism of Islam…
If Boko Haram came to Ireland Adams would probably invite them to a spot on his trampoline but he would have to lose the dog or Boko haram would just kill it. Adams so loves Islam. So did Hitler not many know that!
Ah yes Pamela Gellar who refers to Muslims as savages and wanted Islam officially recognised as a supremacist political movement. You know they were both coming to the UK to speak at an English Defence League protest in Woolwich?
Speaking of terrorists.
Italy have put soldiers on the street in particular synagogues, Jewish diplomatic residence & interests have been put under protection from ISIS who claim they are fixing to invade Europe via the Mediterranean. They are expected to join with other head hackers in Libya and invade from there.
So Glen why were you and your harp supporting Hamas on another thread? Same thing you know. Both extreme Islam or rather i should say more precisely just ordinary classical Islam.
If you are raised as an animal, live like an animal and behave like an animal, you are going to be an ………………….., answers on a postcard please.
Animals kill for food or self preservation. These things kill for their beliefs and/or sport. They’re below animals.
Stephen, how can you insult animals like that by comparing them to those s**m…
Traveller
They don’t charge interest on billion euro loans or don’t remove children from their biological father or mother… Pros and cons every cloud…….,
In fact there is no difference at all between Hamas and Boko Haram. They are both Antisemitic in the extreme. They are both anti-Christian. They are both based on total violence.
But Sinn Fein and the Irish Fascist Left supports Hamas and (strategically) ignore the crimes against poor Africans of Boko Haram
The irish Fascist pro-Islam “left” provide a cover for Boko Haram. This is an example:
“The kidnap of the 200 girls is horrific but will a campaign calling for more intervention by the Nigerian Government and the U.S. really help those girls or the people of Nigeria? James O’Toole takes a glance behind the hashtags and headlines.
On the night of the 14th of April over 270 girls were kidnapped from their school in in the town of Chibok in Borno State, Nigeria. The kidnapping was the work of the Islamist militant group ‘Boko Haram’.
Obama and other leading U.S. politicians were quick to condemn Boko Haram as ‘savages’ and ‘barbarians’ who were beyond the pale of civilisation.
Michelle Obama and Hilary Clinton have been pushing the #bringbackourgirls hashtag on social media relying on the fact that the decency of the majority of people, who are rightly outraged at the kidnappings, will have them fall in behind calls for U.S. assistance.
But with the USA promising to help – what is the world’s biggest military powers agenda in Africa? Are the Nigerian Government capable of dealing with Boko Haram -where did this Islamist group come from?
AND THEN FOLLOWS THE EXPLANATION!!! THE FAULT LIES WITH THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT NOT BOKO HARAM…
Nigerian Government are part of the problem
Boko Haram recruit among the masses of poor young unemployed. People who are driven to despair by the inequality and oppression enforced by the Nigerian Government.
Boko Haram propaganda attacks the corrupt government for stealing the country’s oil wealth. Instead of blaming the system they blame Western influence.
It is convenient for the government to blame social divisions on ethnic and religious divisions and Islamic extremism. But the root cause is really the system that drives the majority of Nigerians to live on less than $2 a day.
The Nigerian military has killed over 950 people in custody as part of its “war on terror” against Boko Haram. In the bombing of Borno alone the military killed 21 people. A brutal oppression of the people sometimes produces brutal responses.
http://www.swp.ie/content/us-military-will-not-help-nigerian-girls
FELIX QUIGLEY ADDS..You see what the SWP Left Fascists have done here. They blame the Nigerian Government not the savages of Boko Haram
These SWP.ie Fascists are saying if you are poor you react by enslaving Young girls!!!!
If Adams were not to be silent on it he would say the same!!!
These total distorters of rerality ie LIARS
If anybody can give information on Sinn Fein and this Irish Fascist Left showing any concern for the murders and enslavements of Young girls I wish they would do so. Also suicide bombing of poor Africans. I have been googling and am not turning up much. Have they (these great freedom fighters!!!) been ignoring Boko Haram and why?
We get it Felix, you’re Jewish. Now stop embarrassing yourself. People don’t like seeing innocent people being killed, hence why they may negatively comment on Israel. I’ve never seen a pro Hamas comment on the Journal. All of this of course has nothing to do with Boko Haram except in your bigoted mind that groups them all together because they fall under the heading “Muslim”.
Sincé this is Ireland I ask what is the difference between Boko Haram and Hamas?
Sinn Fein and Adams is supporting Hamas.
Sinn Ferin and Adams is silent on Boko Haram (at least my google search spells silence)
So now fellow Irish people I do understand better thanks to Harris the silence of Adams and Sein Fein plus the whole elites on utter savagery of Boko Haram savages. For Gods sake even the Feminists are silent!!!
There is just the most wonderful and amazing article on the independent
Unlike Harris I am an Irish republican and nationalist when I think of 1916 also a Trotskyist but his words here are full of truth…
“As soon as Sinn Fein started the Gaza jig, every deputy in Dail Eireann should have roundly denounced its hypocrisy. Apart from a few bleats from Eric Byrne instead of a proper speech — which would, of course, have incurred the wrath of the Labour Party — the record shows the rest of the deputies surrendering to the Sinn Fein stunt.
Deputy Gerry Adams: “A Cheann Comhairle, I very much regret that the Government has ruled out this debate. I ask you to invite the Dail to stand for one minute in solidarity with the people of Gaza and the Middle East.”
I am not totally sure of the position of Harris on this but mine is that the issue re-Israel is that Muslims and Antisemitic Christian Arabs just do not stand for a Jewish state in the Middle East and that this is a continuation of the role of Hajj Amin el Husseini in the Holocaust. That has always been the underlying issue. Shher Jew Hatred.
And Harris propagandises that this Adams support for Jew Hatred (of the Palestinian lies narrative) is the answer to the silence of Adams on Boko Haram.
Correct Harris! Totally 100% correct!
Support for Jew Hatred of Adams. Silence on Boko Haram. Going together.
By the way I was and am not in agreement with Israeli government tactics or even strategy. History states that Sharon was blackmailed by Jewish traitors to pull every last Jew out of Gaza even uprooting cemeteries and Jewish remains. The Arabs had it. Then began the rocketing which lasted for 7 years. Little Jewish kids wetting their beds in fear. Living in dungeons… reminds me of the Brits hanging Jews in Judea in 1947!!!
There had to be a FIRST rocket from Hamas and Islamic Jihad. That FIRST ROCKET was the time to respond and I mean really respond WITH EVERYTHING THROWN INTO THE FIGHT.
If a government rationalising (NOT ACTING) on the first rocket they lose it at that very moment in time
You’re ranting now Felix. Did they get tired of you over on JihadWatch?
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