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BROADCASTER GAY BYRNE has topped the latest Presidential opinion poll, published this lunchtime.
The Red C poll, commissioned by bookmakers Paddy Power, showed the broadcaster to command the support of 28 per cent of respondents – despite not yet having officially declared himself in the running for the election.
Byrne’s 28 per cent share puts him 7 points ahead of Labour’s candidate Michael D Higgins, on 21, while Gay Mitchell is back on 13 per cent.
Prospective Fianna Fáil candidate, Munster MEP Brian Crowley, also commands a 13 per cent support – which may bolster his chances of encouraging his party to run a formal candidate.
Independent candidate and entrepreneur Seán Gallagher stands next on 12 per cent, while Special Olympics organiser Mary Davis, also an independent, is on 7 per cent.
1997 candidate Dana Rosemary Scallon, who had sought a nomination in 2004 and who is reported to be contemplating a bid, is on 6 per cent of the vote.
However, 39 per cent of respondents to the poll said they would still consider giving Senator David Norris their first preference votes – despite Norris’s decision to withdraw from the running last week. Exactly 50 per cent of voters said they would have given him one of their preferences.
Byrne’s support was strongest among women and younger voters, but enjoyed broad appeal in all regions but Connacht/Ulster. Higgins enjoys support among middle-aged and older voters, as well as strong support from male voters, but surprisingly enjoys better support in Dublin than in his own Connacht/Ulster region.
In fact, Higgins’ support in the capital is higher than that of Fine Gael’s Dublin stalwart Gay Mitchell. Sean Gallagher performed well among younger candidates in Connacht-Ulster, while Brian Crowley performed well in Munster but flagged elsewhere.
When only declared candidates are included, Higgins scores 39 per cent of the public’s support, ahead of Mitchell on 25 per cent and Sean Gallagher not far behind.
The poll surveyed 908 voters between Monday and Wednesday of this week, and has a margin of error of 3 per cent.
Paddy Power/Red C opinion poll:
(Second preference share of the vote in brackets)
The breakdown of second-preference transfers will also make for interesting read for the candidates:
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I’d rather the president wasnt a former who wants to be a millionaire host, or boring for that matter
G Gaybo
U Unbelievable
B Bizarre
U Unprecedented
FF’s return to power doesn’t seem that far fetched if they can get Gaybo in to the Aras. Willie o’Dea for Taoiseach – 2016 and Sean Fitzpatrick to be a paid Govt. adviser this time.
God save us from this.
It’s ironic how you say this however, you have a pic of Morgan Freeman who actually plays God in the film where the picture was taken!!!
Why does the Aras have to be a retirement home? Gay byrne decided to retire from his career 12 years ago because he got tired. Ho do people think he will have the energy to make something of the presidency.
I want my president out traveling around the world selling Ireland Abroad . He wont have the energy for that.
This Man has contributed alot to Irish society, but at 77 he doesn’t have the energy to make something of the role.
Higgins is pretty old too
If that ends up as the final field of candidates, I’ll either abstain or spoil my vote. Why go to the expense of an election? Couldn’t RTE just do a game show instead to select the winner?
I hate to be ageist but 77 is simply too old for that job.
I also think he’s a twat but I’m not going to get into that.
Just out of interest Gavan, how old is that picture of Gay? It looks nothing like the man pictured on The Indo today, http://www.independent.ie/national-news/gay-rants-at-mad-people-in-eu-running-the-country-2845390.html
@Cpm: This photo, according to the archive, is from August 2009. (We didn’t use a photo of him from last night because we’d already used one from last night in today’s poll.)
Higgins is too old too
28% isn’t much by way of support. It’s a warning to rational people to stop this before it starts (and also shows that people are not happy with the present selection of candidates).
Yeah also a point worth nothing is that 28% of 908 people is as about as many as were on my bus to work this morning….I think the figure would be far lower when it comes time to vote and those rational people have logged on. Also, he has skeletons in his closet…I’m sure he’d asking himself right now
@Ben. A profound lack of understanding there regarding polls and how they operate, their effectiveness etc etc.
I understand how polls work…I was making a point about their frequency and the questionable reliability of data they generate depending on cross sections used…you thought I actually don’t understand how a poll works?? Thank you for your lesson sir, thank you!
WTF is wrong with people in this country the last thing we need is a sanctimonious ego maniac running for the president and Gaybo is far from diplomatic remember his performances with Adams and Murphy?
If gaybo get elected. It’s just shows how silly the sheep of Ireland have got Looking at the so called candidates list above it’s a sorry state of has beens
I think a snickers bar might be better option.
I second the snickers.
Yep, true
I’m seriously hoping Gay Byrne’s popularity at the moment is some sick joke to get him to run before humiliating him on election day.
We are a nation of sad ****s. I am stunned by this! Even by Irish standards this is pathetic. What the hell is wrong with us. Please lets just abolish the post and give the budget for the post to charity.
If we can’t get a good candidate, it should be shelved. The poll should have an option none of the candidates. If the majority tick that box, then Mary mcaleese should stay for another 2 years. I know this is fantasy but so is electing people who are not representative.
We are Willy, we are indeed
Mr. Tayto will get my vote before any on the current list.
Jesus lads who wants that old fart as president? Its a joke if he runs and wins.
Seriously id vote for the ghost of De Valera before him.
No, it’s democracy
any one over 60 years of age should not be allowed to run for Election.We need young blood.as for GAY BYRNE go home and put your feet up.
Gay byrne shouldn’t be dismissied because of his age. We should, however, consider his motivation for running in light of his admitted return to broadcasting this summer due to financial difficulties. €2m over the next seven years could certainly refeather the nest.
At first I thought this was just a joke, now it’s beginning to look real this old fart could actually could be the face of Ireland abroad.
We will be the laughing stock
We already are!
I still can’t believe that that’s the best list of potential presidents ireland can produce… If people don’t laugh at us already, well then aren’t we in for a treat
The sooner the criteria for election of president is changed the better, then at least we might get some decent candidates. There is not one what I would call decent candidate in the list at the moment.
care to make a few suggestions?
Roy Keane boy! I’d love to see him addressing the UN telling it like it is. Imagine the uproar.
I agree mr. Made. How about Joseph o Connor, the writer?
Ha! Roy Keane, he’d probably walk out before the swearing in ceremony blaming the state of the lawns and the lack of political footballs to kick around, still at least he’d have more kop on than most of the candidates left in the race. Plenty of room to walk the dog in nearby park as well. Downside, if anything goes wrong you’d probably have Alex Ferguson advising him. Then again…..
So FF’s Crowley who isnt even a candidate has same level of support as FG’s Mitchell ?
Massive FG fail!
From farce to farce and back again.
33% of people who would give their 1st preference to Higgins would give their 2nd preference to Mitchell! WTF!
Why bother with Gaybo, why don’t we just put Frank Kelly in the Aras and dress him up as Father Jack. If the country is going to make a laughing stock of itself AGAIN! We might as well make it funny for everyone. Gay Byrne for president has got to be a sick joke. Only Ireland could come up with nonsense like this maybe we should jobshare and have Jedward in there as well. No wonder the Irish joke is making a comeback!
Will everyone stop calling Gay Byrne “Gaybo”. It’s oddly quiet annoying.
Polls are polls and very little information is given as to methodology etc but analysis of the poll if You take second preferences into account, which is where the election will be won, because no candidate will reach the quota on first count, is that Michael D is looking good! Of the declared runners even allowing for Gaybo running, Michael D mops up most 2nd preferences of Gay Mitchel, Mary Davis, and Gaybo would need the 2nd preferences of Gallagher and two non runners at present Dana and Crowley. But if Crowley does run this will definitely impact on the first preference of Gaybo, conclusion: Gaybo won’t run unless his a sure thing and on this evidence he is not! Howver the major finding of the poll which has not hit the headlines is the backing for Norris!! More twists and turns ?????
Yeah, but if Gaybo’s too old, so is Higgins…
Higgins is 70, Byrne is 77. At the end of a seven-year term, Higgins would be as old as Byrne is at the start of one.
Higgins health is not in question, Gaybo’s is. He was burnt from working a few hours a week 12 years ago. You do not get second winds at the age of 77.
Ah now Seamus, don’t be confusing Fianna Failers with facts!
Personally think they’re both too old actually…
I mean, the Áras isn’t a retirement home!
That’s all I’m saying, they’re BOTH too old.
PS Not to be pedantic, but Micky D is 71
Is anyone surprised by this? In a candidate list full of duds a lot of Irish people will side with Gay simply because they feel they know him after watching him on the late late for so many years. The signs were there when no one bothered to challenge McAleese last time we were bound to get a list of “mehs”. Now that David Norris is out i think a lot of people wont bother voting and i think Gaybo’s in with a real chance.
I agree with John in seriously questioning Gaybo’s motives for even contemplating running. Its a handy salary and mortgage free courtesy of the tax payer in a time where he is in some financial difficulty. I guess the other side of it is if Arnie can be governor of California then why not Gaybo? Actor Ronald Reagan was an “old” President too.
Will be interesting to see if he decides to run…
Just a slight correction Paul…
In 2004 all the parties in Dail Eireann said they would support McAleese if she declared herself as an Independent, hence she dropped her FF colours, also same said parties instructed all the councils around the country to block anyone else from entering the race.
Eamon Ryan dipped his toes into the waters but withdrew as quick as he put them in so the incumbent could run unopposed.
There were a few people, including myself who tried to get into the race via the council route, only one council (Galway City) bucked the trend (party orders) and said they would support Dana.
So as you can see, some people did try to bother to get nominated but were blocked, some claim that was democracy at work… I refute that claim.
why must We use the silly PR system for this election, pick the person you want and that should be it, second preferences silly.
Because that’s how we get presidents like Mary Robinson instead of presidents like Brian Lenihan.
Agreed. We could have ended up with Brian Lenihan senior, a man who made a fortune in the 60′s and 70′s selling army commissions to those who slipped him an envelope, one of a long string of corruption in his political career, thankfully we got Robinson who for whatever her faults maybe was certainly honest and motivated for the good of Ireland rather than a personal swansong Presidency. The P.R. system has proven its effectiveness.
For what it’s worth, I’ve taken the second-preferences table and worked out a model simulation to its conclusion, and Gaybo still comes out on top with his final tally at roughly 42% of the total valid poll, while Higgins’ is back on 34%.
Interestingly, if the transfer patterns are correct, Brian Crowley actually comes third ahead of Gay Mitchell…
(This is, of course, assuming that the pattern for second preferences is repeated in lower ones, which it might not necessarily be.)
While I did not run any model simulations and did not check your figures, so given you the benefit of the doubt, on the current figures you are probably correct! but my point is that given the number of improbabilities in the data it is impossible to predict anything. Because three of the candidates are at present not running it is dangerous to forecast anything on these findings, while the research is based on good standards the overall conclusions that can be drawn are at the least “sceptical”. As an example if Crowley enters the race, the data cannot predict “the actual response” among FF voters and the FF Hierarchy, therefore will FF withdraw their support for Byrne if Crowley runs, if Crowley was not allowed to run for his party would that cause a backlash among Crowley supporters against Byrne, even if Byrne decided not to run and backed Crowley would that cause a backlash among Byrne supporters for him supporting FF, then where would Byrnes support go? So in reality what is been done is the cross tabulation of actual data (the declared runners findings) with probable data ( the declared runners plus the undeclared runners data) which is to say the least not a good idea !
Gavan, this country is a bloody joke!
Now I haven’t done any statistical studied or anything like that but I can definetly concur that he is an opinionated,pompous,narcissistic ass who most certainly not have my support… As pointed out above it’s purely a financially motivated ego trip.. I mean,he all but said he’d run if "people insisted"… What a tool!!!
Another gay to add to the mix
The post of presidency is an important role, while the Taoiseach can represent the Irish government, the President represents the state and the Irish people as they are elected directly by the people. So in matters of international diplomacy the Presidential Office is highly important. Secondly as guardian of the constitution the President can play an important political role albeit not that often. Nonetheless its important to have someone above politics so to speak. In regards to Gay Byrne, I think the man is experienced, has integrity, and above all independent. He appeals to a broad spectrum of the electorate and so what if he wants to make a few quid from it. Its a job, if he can do it he should be paid. Although I do believe the pay should be significantly less than it is.
The man has said that he doesn’t want to go round on a bus pre election, when going round meeting people all over the country & world is a job requirement!! I can’t make sense of it at all … does he understand the job he’s thinking of applying for!?
At the moment I think there is a lot of stand-offishness(hey i just invented a word) from Gay Byrne, but if he does run he will take it in the most earnest and sincere manner, I agree if he doesnt want the work involved he shouldnt run, but I think if he commits he will be very dedicated
What about Mary Hanafin as a candidate?
Am NOT FF- but at least she is dignified and a good communicator!
A good communicator??? Yeah she communicated well when she told the father of a down syndrome child that she should get a job instead of claiming benefits.
I’m reminded of her night on Tonight with Vinnie B, where Hanafin managed to make Joan Burton look competent.
As bizarre a comment as the one I saw about Mary describing her as “Competent and motivated for the national good”. I don’t think even Mary’s daddy would say that about her.
What will do for Mary was how she took here Mother on jaunts all over the world at the expense of decent Irish tax payers and we all hope her Mammy recovered after falling in Leinster Hse, she got a nice payout.
There would be a wonderful and frank clearing up of the questions around FF’s finances when that thief/traitor Haughey was leading them. Mary was treasurer at that stage.
She appointed a friend of Brian Cowen to a Quango board on the last day of her reign.
Hanafin knows that she will be shredded if she runs for President. Mary is very “religious”, it is quiet apt to point out that like many of the Bishops and Priests of the Catholic Church, if she had spent less pontificating and more time pondering on and exhibiting Christian decency and consideration then she and Ireland would be better off.
People keep saying Gay Byrne as President is a joke but why? Back up what you have to say? people just think its cool to "diss" Gay Byrne but its based on nonsense.
Gay himself said that he doesn’t know if he has the energy to go around the country on the campaign trail so how is he supposed to go around the world representing the country? He also said that he would like to keep on broadcasting, what’s that about? He is either going to do the job of President or not. This isn’t a part time job where you can do the odd nixer or tell an ambassador that you can’t see them because you have a gig on. Gay isn’t taking this seriously so why should anyone else!
Because he’s an idiot, that’s why. Fact!
Wow, it really is true, unless you talk about hating the church, Fianna Fail, or what ever else is cool to hate this week, your guaranteed to get disliked. Ignorance at its best.
He is an anachronism
He is haughey / fianna fail fan
He is the living embodiment of patronising
He is (was) an entertainer
He has an irrational view of EU, informed by his own property investment meltdown
He is beyond retirement age
He is a bit opinionated
He is too light weight intellectually
He is a bit silly
Shall I go on
Mary Byrne for the park? whyn not
Spoil ur vote put david norris on the papper and teach these fuckers a lesson
Mary Byrne for the park why not?
Who the hell is Mary Byrne? Is she Gaybos sister? wife even? We need a progressive person to be president not some clapped out tv presenter whose heyday was back in the 70′s.
have your say