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WHILE MANY ANALYSTS are predicting the euro will soon be on par with the dollar, one forecaster has tipped the currency will hit a new low within a few years.
Robin Brooks, from Goldman Sachs, said he expected the euro would be worth only 80c against the US currency by the end of 2017.
On Friday the US investment bank dropped all its forecasts for the euro, predicting it would be trading at 95c in 12 months and 85c at the end of 2016.
If the currency bottoms out as expected, the currency will have almost halved in value against the US dollar since hitting nearly $1.60 in 2008.
This morning it was trading just above $1.05 after it briefly hit a new 12-year low yesterday.
Way below ‘fair value’
Brooks said Goldman Sachs expected the euro would “significantly undershoot” its expectation of fair value because of “diverging growth and monetary policy outlooks”.
“If anything, it seems to us that the market continues to play catch-up with the strong dollar theme,” he said.
The bank put its rating of long-term “fair value” at $1.20 for the euro.
Last week Deutsche Bank analysts delivered what was, at the time, one of the most bearish predictions so far – that the euro would be down to 85c by 2017.
The currency has been on a steady downward march since a year ago on a series of interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank.
That was followed more recently by expectations of the bank’s quantitative easing (QE) programme, which will lead to €1.1 trillion in newly-created money flooding onto markets.
A tale of two economies
All the ECB measures have been brought in an attempt to kickstart sluggish eurozone economies by making it cheaper to borrow money and creating cheaper exports against goods from countries like the US and UK.
Meanwhile, US officials have been tipped to raise interest rates as early as mid-year which will make the country a more attractive place for cash investors.
That could in turn cause a flood of money from Europe which would lift demand for the dollar and slash appetites for the euro, driving the value of the currency down.
The weak euro will be bad news for consumers because of the amount of imported goods that come from either the US and UK, or from other regions where they are traded in dollars.
But it should have a positive effect on Ireland’s export-driven economy, which was already the fastest growing in the eurozone last year.
GDP was 4.8% higher for the 12 months, nearly four times the region’s average.
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I’m fairly safe in guessing there will be no pylons on his land or high voltage cables near his home…
If he was in opposition he would be outraged.
Feck off labour nobody buys your crap anymore
Anyone got “full confidence in the competence, professionalism and technical abilities” of Rabbittes abilities to decide on this?
Is it just me or are all labour ministers trying to look like they give a crap about us in past few days.cant wait till they start calling to my door looking for votes. I’ll wake the dead with how loud I’ll be telling them to F off
One of those monstrosities is planned for lands behind my home house, only problem is, the only access is a private road…….owned by yours truly………this is gonna be good! :)
@ Pete. Don’t worry , their overdue kicking is on it’s way.
No problem. Compulsory purchase order. Ya hardly think your private road is first time in history of the state that infrastructure development they came across this.
One is going up few km from where I grew up. Welcome it. Builds for the future.
What a lovely political appointment that was that he made today, the former chairman of an bord pleanala (the body that will be making the planning decisions on whether eirgrid projects get the go ahead) has today been appointed as chairman of eirgrid by our lovely Minister for communications! It all seems very cosy, very cosy indeed!
You couldn’t make it up. The trail of corruption runs deep with this project. Conflicts of interests everywhere but that’s how it’s done in ireland. Chairman of SEAI being a director of mainstream is quiet incredible though and now this.
There isn’t a straight line in this country.
Every damn one of them are about as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking competition, corrupt, the whole fecking lot of them.
I’d love to see a “None of the above” option included on the ballot paper in the next general election so that we could get rid of every one of these useless, corrupt drains on society and bar them from ever running again.
Anyone up for a bit of cronyism and/or nepotism these days?
Gawd bless Fine Gael and Labour – they have gone so far out of their way not to act like Fianna Fail and the Greens previously.
…Yes – I’m being sarcastic!
Nothing has changed in fact from the previous government to this one – different spelling of party names – but still same disgusting antics.
A missed opportunity to pipe cables along side the motorway verges…
Believe it or not has been tried but NRA don’t want it.
@ the lone hurler not really viable, the cost of under grounding HV cables is 19 times more than overhead, that’s if you can do it without the land owners sticking their oar in. Also, if their was a fault on the cable access to the damage would be difficult without traffic disruption…
Funnyman. That’s pure nonsense, lots of evidence to show that undergrounding is cheaper in the long run.
Info from Canadian website.
Benefits of Underground Lines:
In summary, when compared with overhead or above-ground lines, buried high voltage power lines:
eliminate the electrical field through shielding and significantly reduce the magnetic field through phase cancellation,
reduce the negative health impacts of overhead line electromagnetic fields (EMFs) to almost zero,
eliminate the negative health impacts of the overhead line corona effect,
are safer because they can’t electrocute people or animals,
eliminate EMFs and stray voltage that negatively affect livestock,
do not negatively impact agricultural crop production,
are safer because buried lines don’t fall over in hurricanes, tornadoes, other high wind storms or ice storms,
are not affected by solar storms,
do not start wildfires nor are they affected by fires,
are safer because helicopters, airplanes and hot air balloons can’t crash into them,
do not cause nearby pipeline corrosion or hazardous induced currents in pipelines,
do not lower adjacent property values,
are not an eyesore,
do not buzz or hum,
do not negatively affect tourism,
do not negatively affect the environment,
do not kill millions of birds annually through collision,
are safer because they are not susceptible to terrorist attacks,
are more reliable,
have lower maintenance costs,
are more efficient and have lower transmission loss costs, and
can be buried for almost the same capital cost as overhead lines.
Just to be clear, undergrounding is not much more expensive than overhead when laying new lines, which this project is. It is more expensive when replacing lines, which this isn’t!
When you put it like that….
Costs of Underground Lines:
With regard to the cost of burying high voltage power lines, based on RETA’s research, expert testimony provided at the AUC hearing on the proposed Heartland Transmission Project, and many discussions with underground cable experts in Europe:
The capital cost of burying these lines is not 4 to 20 times the cost of building overhead lines, as suggested by the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), Alberta Energy and transmission facility owners in Alberta (e.g., AltaLink, ATCO Electric, EPCOR).
For example, expert testimony at the April and May 2011 Heartland AUC hearing indicates that the capital cost of a partially buried Heartland double circuit 500 kilovolt line (i.e., 20 of 66 kilometres would be buried) is only about 15% higher than AltaLink’s and EPCOR’s $580 million estimated cost of an entirely above-ground Heartland line. This is a rounding error within the electricity transmission industry, and well within AltaLink’s and EPCOR’s Heartland Transmission Project contingency budget.
Maintenance costs of buried high voltage power lines are substantially lower than for overhead lines, and this is because underground lines are not subject to tornadoes and other high wind storms, ice storms, general weather deterioration, birds colliding with lines and knocking the power out, etc. For example, the 40-kilometre 500kV line buried in Tokyo in 2000 has had zero maintenance issues.
Examples of Underground Lines:
When asked about burying high voltage power lines, many electricity transmission companies will respond, “It hasn’t been done before” or “The technology hasn’t been sufficiently developed” or “You can’t successfully bury higher voltage transmission lines such as 500 kilovolt or 400 kilovolt lines”. None of these responses is true.
The fact is there are thousands of examples of successfully buried 240 kilovolt transmission lines and lines of lower voltage. Many cities and towns around the world have many miles and kilometres of buried high voltage lines, especially in densely populated and “downtown” areas.
As transmission companies look to build higher voltage lines – 500kV and 400kV – more and more residents, businesses and governments are calling for these lines to be buried because the higher voltage towers and lines are usually much taller and more unsightly, and hence have increased negative impacts. There are many examples of successfully buried 500kV and 400kV lines. This list includes just a few of the many successfully buried 500kV lines, and this list includes just a few of the many successfully buried 400kV lines. For technical details of another successfully buried 40-kilometre-long 500kV line in Tokyo see Yonemoto et al. 2003.
These cost comparisons fail to factor in the cost of building a road infrastructure to carry the weight of vehicles during installation and repair, the jointing bays which are basically concrete bunkers big enough for two adults to work, located at every join. The EMF argument is invalid as there is no I repeat no scientific evidence of adverse health effects from power lines, there is a statistical connection in one study out of several thousand and that study failed to look at other environmental factors for the statistical connection. The disruption caused repairing a fault in an underground cable is considerably higher than an overhead cable, indeed live line working allows repairs in overhead cables without even switching the power off. Pylons are a necessity of modern living and while not the most beautiful of things are common through out the developed world.
The BMJ (British Medical Journal) disagrees with you & Eirgrid & has shown a link between powerlines & increased rates of cancer.
Underground is the only acceptable option.
I assume you are referring to the childhood leukaemia study? That is the one i referred to also, the authors of that study admitted they had not considered social or economic factors which may well have had a greater bearing on the results. Under-grounding is desirable but we will all have to pay the increased costs through levies on domestic electricity charges etc.
Even the abstract of that paper states that “There is no accepted biological mechanism to explain the epidemiological results; indeed, the relation may be due to chance or confounding.” Correlation does not equal causation. https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/false-cause
Ah yes it is , for underground you have to Dig a trench for the conduit , lay the conduit back fill the trench , rope the conduit , pull the cable , a joint bay every 500m , joint the cables . This takes a huge amount if work requiring new access roads , spoil dumps etc causing a lot if damage to the surrounding flora and fauna . Then all this has to be restored at huge cost . Add to that underground cable is insulated copper whereas overheads are exposed aluminium and you can really see the difference . If a high voltage cable develops a fault underground , there is a lot of work involved in exposing and repairing it compared to overheads .
I think the underground cables have to be oil cooled as well whereas the ones on pylons are cooled by the air and don’t get as hot because they are further apart.
They don’t use oil filled much anymore Anne , they run each phase in a seperate conduit . This is what I do for a living .
Thanks John, just been Googling it instead of sleeping. :-(
I’m actually working on 132kv undergrounds this very minute in sunny Australia
So government minister wants to absolve himself of all responsibility, wow there’s a surprise.
Young Pat Rabbitte would hate old Pat Rabbitte.
Young Pat Rabbitt grew into Old Pat Rabbit.
Labour Nua sellout Rabbitte will hate having to re-invent opposition Rabbitte….if not exiting stage left once this coalition of the rimming has run its course!
Old Pat Rabbitte loves old Pat Rabbitte as much as young Pat loved young Pat, never changed ,
The only thing that changed was public perception, Frank?
I knew Young Pat Rabbitte when we worked together at USI. I haven’t met him for years but Young Pat Rabbitte may have difficulty supporting Old Pat Rabbitte.
and Pat Rabbitte grew into Fat Rabbit
In other words ‘tough shite, the pylons are going ahead and there’s NOTHING ye can do about it’.
Democracy is great isn’t it?
The good old mandate from the Irish People.
A blank cheque to scupper the Country ‘for our own good’ for the Coalitions entire time in Govt.
Wait until the local elections, they will get their first kick in the b@@@ix and the general election will wipe them out totally.
It will also put the other shower back into opposition where they belong.
Obviously the Minister has been made aware of valid alternatives to what Eirgrid proposes… But chooses not to get involved.
When prepared correctly, Rabbitt tastes like chicken.
And if not we’ll just do it anyway
‘… The engagement between company and community must be reasonable and must be tempered by what constitutes the public interest.’
What, like with Shell in Mayo?
‘However, no Government can walk away from its responsibility to provide the country with a secure energy supply.’
But we won’t be bothering with offering you any alternatives to Eirgrid
‘Nor can any Government wantonly inflict unnecessary costs on energy consumers to allay concerns that are not well founded.’
Translates as: ‘lunatic’ opposition to this will cost YOU money
I seriously dislike Pat Rabbite.
apart from the safety aspect one of the only this left that the country has going for it is the walking tours and the likes.pat rabbitt should be trying to stop this
CORRUPTION AT WORK. WILL THESE POLITICANS. EVER DO WHAT IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT AND HONEST BY THE PEOPLE.
too many dispersed houses in Ireland
http://irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2013/10/26/counting-the-cost-of-rurban-ireland/
Just beat some sense into the protestors- it realty is that simple
There are pylons in Bluebell Dublin 12. 5km from Dublin City centre.
I was told by Eirgrid that once they’ve been erected they’ll never be replayed. “Never” . That’s what they told me.
have your say