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THE WEEKEND’S RED C opinion poll for the Sunday Business Post reversed a recent trend of increasing support for the two government parties.
Both Fine Gael and Labour dropped two points each to 25 and 8 per cent respectively, a setback when both parties were just starting to believe that the public were coming back to them after a succession of bad polls last year.
Despite ongoing rumours of an early election it’s now increasingly likely, if not certain, that the coalition will hold out as long as it can and hope the poll numbers improve as the economy does.
But why the sudden and somewhat unexpected drop in support, and what about the state of the other parties? Here’s our take….
It wasn’t Siterserv
The poll numbers come at the end of a bad week for the coalition when the Siterserv controversy was blown wide open. Most voters won’t appreciate the nuances of the story or, as one minister put it to us yesterday, the view in coalition circles that “government has done nothing wrong here”.
The problem is that there is an undeniable whiff of rottenness about the whole matter. The McNulty debacle last year was an obscure Seanad by-election, but for many it stank of cronyism. This Siterserv story stinks. We’re not sure of what yet, but voters can certainly detect that something isn’t quite right about it, and that’s the problem.
However, as damaging as this may prove for Labour and particularly Fine Gael, this poll was taken between Monday and Wednesday of last week, when the Siteserv controversy was just starting to enter the public consciousness. It’s unlikely that it had such an effect as to knock two points off each of the government parties.
But it might have been mortgages
One minister we spoke to yesterday suggested that the coalition’s failure to act on the issue of distressed mortgage holders was the main reason for the drop in support. There are proposals in the works and an announcement is expected in the coming weeks.
But Fianna Fáíl spent a number of weeks hammering the government over its failure to do anything for standard variable mortgage rate holders. It’s arguably done more for those in distress by extracting a promise from AIB to cut rates in the coming months. The government will have to deliver something similar with its long-awaited announcement.
Not that it helped Fianna Fáil
Micheál Martin’s troops may have their internal difficulties but there is no denying that Fianna Fáil have had some considerable wins when it’s come to embarrassing and shaming this government, like the medical cards and garda malpratice controversies last year. So far this year, Michael McGrath has done sterling work on the mortgages issue, but there has been no poll dividend for the party, which saw a jump of just one point to 19 per cent in the latest poll.
At the party’s Ard Fheis over the weekend, Fianna Fáil figures staunchly maintained that the party is not actually on 19 per cent and that come the election it will capture more than 20 per cent of the vote. The problem is that mediocre poll ratings do little for morale and ensure that the awkward squad – the likes of Eamon Ó Cuív and John McGuinness – will continue to air their concerns about the party’s direction.
Sinn Féin returns to form
By contrast, the other main opposition party has restored most of the support it lost over the Paudie McGahon controversy earlier this year. Having fallen sharply to 17 per cent in the March Red C poll, Sinn Féin has jumped five points to 22 per cent this time around. The fallout from Mary Lou McDonald being criticised by an internal Dáil committee over her naming of politicians in the Ansbacher dosser does not appear to have harmed the party one bit.
Independents and others are still going strong
Independent TDs believe their support will fall off as the election nears and people consolidate around the existing political parties. Though the independents and others category dropped two points this time around, it is still on a significant 26 per cent.
With Renua only just emerging and the Anti-Austerity Alliance becoming a growing political force, it will be interesting to see to what extent voters start to coalesce around these new movements in the months ahead, or whether they opt for one of the four main parties.
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Shower of useless smug bas*ards taking the piss out of a shower of useless indignant bas*ards. They’re as bad as each other.
It’s funny really as FG have just been running on FF’s policies & budgets for the past couple of years!!! One thing is certain if FG run into the next election with Kenny at helm it’ll a bigger meltdown than Labour
It just shows how piss poor the Fine Gaelers are – they publish a review document and it is Blank …a fair reflection of the intellect involved really ….
Probably written in the subsidised Dail Bar , let’s not forget we pay our TD’s over €3000 a week and more in expenses to write this schoolboy stuff
They can’t even spell Enda – look they spelt it – “Ends “
Even more outrageous is their “Review of Sinn Féin’s promises in 2014″:
The world.
Ends.
Which ones – the one to support water charges or the about turn after Paul Murphy taught them a lesson in politics ?
I found it hilarious how Paul Murphy invited Sinn Fein to join him in the objection to water charges after he wiped their eye in the election and they DID !
Paul Murphy marked himself out as a leader that morning – the morning after the election ….
Has anyone contacted the resident troll Prov Shinnerbot?
Here’s a topic about the pathological liars in FG talking about the pathological liars in FF and nobody is mentioning Sf….oh wait, he’s here….tell us a joke shinnerbot.
@ Dermot Ryan: Can you link please to any evidence of Sinn Fein ‘supporting water charges’ at any stage during the year?
Lighten up, everyone finds his comments funny ( except the shinners of course ).
were – I’m on your side dude – you shouldn’t have asked ….
Will a climbdown from Gerry Adams count ?…I know the difference between a political animal and a republican Were – don’t ever, ever forget that !
Hating on trolls…..”OMG YOU’RE A SHINNER”
#FGlogic
Dermot while I agree Paul Murphy outsmarted the SF dirty tricks machine, I don’t think he’s a lot going for him. The last few interviews I seen with him he had not got a clue. & just waffled on like a complete empty head! I’m afraid this champagne socialist will prove to be a one hit wonder come the general election
Dermot, saying you’ll pay your water charges is not the same as ‘supporting water charges’.
Are you claiming that every person who intends to pay supports water charges?
In fairness Dermot shinnerbot is out numbered by SF trolls on this site
Jammin What planet are you on? Gerry & Mary loo both said they were in favour of paying but jumped on the populist bandwagon & done another about turn!
I hate on all trolls, I remember the journal.ie was a respectful place where comments rarely strayed
Don’t hate the Shinna, hate the blame game.
@ Protect Democracy: Stop spoofing. They said they were paying but opposed the charge itself, just like a lot of people.
Jammin stop playing with words! The were both in favour, what about NI where SF is in government ? 35000 water meters installed & 165stg from their council charges are for water
” The were both in favour”
Then you should be able to link to a quote from them saying that they are in favour of water charges.
Whenever you’re ready……
Were – you are beginning to sound like Fianna Fail or Fine Gael whataboutery – Be a man stand up and say yes we were wrong …. and then follow with “We actually misjudged the situation , it is the will of the people and indeed in fitting with the socialist ethos of the establishment of this State we are totally opposed to privatisation on Constitutional Grounds ..”
@ Dermot: Who’s ‘we’?
Also, by YOUR logic, a person who opposes the water charge but signs up with Irish Water because their landlord has threatened to evict them if they did not, actually supports water charges? Correct?
Jammin your still playing with words man up & admit the facts SF done an about turn after been out done by a little rich kid socialist in the west Dublin by election
Have you got that proof to back up your claim for us all yet Protect Democracy?
@provshinnerbot
You are one very sick individual.
“we” is the British ran press office of Sinn Fein – seeing as you asked – now stop asking – there are people reading and they will only drift more and more to Independents and that will piss off the Queen as she hasn’t a hope of controlling 50 or 60 Mings, Mattie McGraths and Lucindas….
And the Irish have figured it now so that’s the end of British Rule in Ireland …thankfully and about time too !
@ Dermot ‘ “we” is the British ran press office of Sinn Fein”.’
Did you have enough foil for the turkey left when you finished making your hat?
When your main focus is to attack other parties policies because you cannot defend your own, you’re in SERIOUS trouble. Recent polls suggest this to be so, and the poll that counts, the polling booth, will no doubt do the same, despite FG/Labours plans to buy the next election Bertie style.
Absolutely! People in glasshouses..
Thank you for today’s HQ press release Comrade Jammin.
@were jammin. Says the Sinn Fein supporter who party’s only contribution to the Dail is to criticise and throw tantrums.
We look forward to some realistic policies from SF.
One legimate policy I would like to see from Sinn Fein is for them to target National and international bankers for some justice ……
Any comment from the shinners on why a Sinn Fein TD drove Pearse Mcauley from prison for killing a detective?
Were Jammin – FG may be attacking another party but they are telling the truth. What have been FF’s policy contributions in the past year?
For example FF are against Irish Water but not it seems against water charges. Yet they’ve not set out any alternative for how their charging system would operate. Where are their policies on health, education, welfare, transport, homelessness and so on?
SF are far from my favourite party, but at least they and the likes of Stephen Donnelly and Catherine Murphy have been active on the policy front among opposition members in the past 12 months.
We have too little focus on policy in this country and too much focus on the parish pump.
Paul – he wasn’t driven from prison for killing a detective – he was imprisoned for killing a detective ….. he served his time and was a free man when released – that’s the law !
Not condoning the killing of anyone by the way ….. you loose the lot the second you take another life !
But it shows the closeness that still exists between Sinn Fein and the IRA. Is Sinn Fein still closely associated with Mcauley?
Paul one could just as easily ask – Is Fine Gael still closely linked to Germanic Royalty and Empire building ?
the answer to your question is yes for the same reasons – just different sides – I back the indigenous people in all such cases…..
Haha typical Sinn Fein evasive sh*te.
Sinn Fein TDs associating with known criminals.
They’re both cheeks of the same arse. Fine Gael came to power and continued Fianna Fail policy. Incidentally, they had the same policies in 2007 as Fianna Fail just before the crash. People forget that.
That puts Labour in the middle of the two, how apt.
Indeed two balls of the same bag.
Saw a homeless guy in Dublin holding a sign :
I DID THIS TO MYSELF
I VOTED FINE GAEL
Yea, it’s the FINE GAEL dream Ho Le, Destroy the people and leave the bankers unharmed.
FF should now simply issue FG’ policies and put their logo on it……
FG Christmas party piece
As it worked for fg when they just continued policies ff had agreed to implement to keep the euro masters happy. Fg/ff/lab can now save money and paper by just photocopying the same sheet to hand out for their policies which are one and the same: bend over for europe ,use vaseline as needed then turn around to receive a complimentary pat on the head
DH vaseline?
They must have used it all up on themselves as our arses are all red raw from the whole of Europe riding us for the past few years.
‘Epic burn’??? Methinks you’ve been inhaling safety match fumes again…
They should put out a press release of all of their lies… That wouldn’t be blank. This government has no mandate… Call an election now!
Could you just imagine Enda Kenny playing with matches….
He’d have to Google how to light them….
FG should put their “say one thing do another” policy out too
in fairness a policy meeting by Enda and Joan starts with them putting on their gimp masks before they Skype Frankfurt
Can Fine Gael stop lying to the people even at Christmas time?! With this press release it seems not!
…and quangos ? ….and fully open, fair and independently verified tendering for government contracts ? …and abuse of Dail privelage? …and TD’S salaries.?..and the Taoseach’s ?…and a referendum on abortion rights, …and IW ….?? To stay or to go ?….lots of fence sitting there lad ! Not a single promise or commitment made …just I want ta, I hope ta, my desire, ‘amoung’ the first things I’d do, oh and nearly forgot…’ what’s needed here’ …yup nothing new.
….moving forward – soas not to learn from the mistakes of the past …..
that’s another classic ….
This Government is a disgrace the people of this country know who the Government serves and it is not the people living in this country . I am sick of the ping pong FF FG and Labour monopoly on power we need a change of system.
If he were to become taoiseach! Still laughing at that.
In Japan when a person in power makes a mistake that hurts others and is caught out they break down crying while they say sorry.
In Ireland they smile and blame everyone else.
FG go fxxk off you ahte shower of bastxxds..
Still trying to fool people into thinking that they are different.
Who’s Fine Gael ?
Fianna Fail in more expensive suits.
The senior ranks of the civil service run this country, not the term puppets that we elect. Same sh*t different? party.
Fine Gael are implementing Fianna Fail policies,so where’s the burn? They’re both as useless as each other.
They’re both incapable and completely useless.
Continuity Fianna Fáil dishes Fianna Fáil http://youtu.be/aEIWNtb41k8 same old shite. Time to ditch the civil war parasites.
Ouch! That is a right kick in t’bollocks.
Election being called by March and we will be marching to cast our vote against these Three Stooges.
Fianna Fáil don’t need any policies, Fine Gael are implementing their policies for them.
Fine Gael would release their policies for 2015 but Angie hasn’t told them what they are yet
FF,FG DUMB & DUMBER. LAUREL & HAEDY . BANK GUAEINTEE IRISH WATER. WHAT DO THE ABOVE ALL HAVE IN COMMON. COMEDIC LEVELS OF INCOMPETENCE.
I can’t wait till election time when the trio of FF,FG AND LABOUR turn up at my door, I will not loose the chance to vent my anger with a bucket of pisss
I’d go with Fianna fails policy over Fianna Gaels. It’s less destructive
This was Fianna fail’s review of Enda’s election campaign in Roscommon – it is interesting to note that Enda seemed to have forgotten his promises and tried to hide behind the hope that they weren’t recorded – which of course they were …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APspFqV9CIE
So pathetically childish on so many levels.
Watching Oireachtas reports can be cringeworthy too. The dáil is like a bloody crèche for these people, only with a subsidised bar.
Fianna fail policy more destructive? Been in a coma between 1997-2011 perhaps?
That’s not an insult its just a suggestion for the next programme for Government
News just in. We live in the present. You cannot change the past so FG would be better off dealing with the problems of its own making instead of paying the blame game.
True, but let’s not allow Sinn Fein forget their past!
You seem obsessed with sf.
FG and FF are similar but SF and IRA are the same. Name one FF member who is also a member of FG or one FG member who is also a member of FF. Name one FF member or FG member that denies that they are a member of their own party.
Ok tap
Name one sf member who is currently a member of the ira? I think you need to read a book.
Sue’ they would deny it away, just like Gerry.
Why don’t you answer…?
FG problem, they lost 6 elections in a row 1987 to 2007. This simple fact about rejection causes them great pain but no shame
Landlords Max Tour Rent.
Banks Max your Debt … and are supported by Political Parties to force you to pay for their own debt also.
Political Parties are just Private Clubs that Max Your Tax … by regressive lobby ridden anti citizen laws giving Revenue power to take taxes from your pay, pensions and from your home when you die. Ireland a disgusting failed society.
“Bring Your Brains to the Polling Booths” … Don’t Vote for Party TDs.
Piss weak comeback from FF. No surprise.
Besides the tired ABFF mentality who around the political arena going into 2015 is actually better than FF. Everyone is now toxic ?
blank like Enda’s 5 point plan
The only reason Enda and co. are in power now is because of the mess made by their predecessors,but that does not make what they are doing right in any way.How can the elected members of Fine Gael stand back and watch this Clown drag them down the drain with Labour laughing in the background!!!!
Fine gael need not worry about Fianna fail because they are both redundant along with labour at the next election shower of Dirts I can’t wait until this general election.
But F.G. F.F. and Labour are all the same, they blame each other and play the past card but all of them take orders from Brussels, Frankfurt and especially Berlin? Who falls for this nonsense still, the over 50s???
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