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This map proves that Iran doesn't really want to defeat ISIS in Iraq and Syria

Iran needs the ISIS threat to stay – here’s why.

IRAQ AND SYRIA no longer exist as coherent, unitary states.

By now, followers of events in the Middle East have grown used to maps that show how ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Free Syrian Army, the Assad regime, the Baghdad government, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Sunni tribes, Iranian-backed militia groups, and various other actors have filled the vacuum in the countries still officially known as Iraq and Syria.

Michael Pregent, an analyst and former US Army intelligence officer, created a map that greatly clarifies this mess by showing the “priority” and “secondary” defensive front lines for Iran, the Kurds, and the Assad regime, showing the areas that are most vital to the sides’ war objectives.

The map shows that the strategic fault lines in Iraq and Syria have nothing to do with the country’s internationally recognised borders, or even with the “borders” of ISIS’s “Caliphate.” And it reveals something important about the future of the fight against ISIS.

Michael Pregent Michael Pregent

Click here for large version 

As the map demonstrates, the jihadist group’s domain lies beyond both Iran and the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government’s priority defensive boundary. As Pregent told Business Insider, the map shows that “Iran has no intent of defeating ISIS.”

As Pregent notes, ISIS has been defeated nearly everywhere the group has been fought on the ground. “The map tells a story,” he told Business Insider. “ISIS is able to maintain territory because it’s unopposed. But where it’s opposed it loses territory, in both Iraq and Syria.”

The black ring cutting through central Iraq and Syria is there because the region’s military actors just aren’t interested in challenging the group in those areas.

Iran wants to preserve its proxies’ control over Baghdad and Damascus, while the KRG wants to defend its territory in northern Iraq. But as Pregent says, the Kurds are more worried about defending Kirkuk from a potential offensive from the Iraqi government and its militia allies than they are about removing ISIS from Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city.

Mideast Iraq Shiite Militias Iraqi Shiite tribal fighters raise their weapons and chant slogans. AP / Press Association Images AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

And Iran actually has something to gain from keeping ISIS alive. As long as the group survives, Iran can claim that their allies in both countries are the only thing preventing a jihadist takeover — an argument that raises Tehran’s prestige and ensures it a degree of international support for their allies in both countries. (It’s also an argument that seems to be working.)

“Iran needs the threat of ISIS and Sunni jihadist groups to stay in Syria and Iraq in order to become further entrenched in Damascus and Baghdad,” Pregent told BI.

Recent events in Iraq make a lot more sense once it’s clear that Iran and its allies don’t see much of a need to advance their red lines deep into Sunni areas. For instance, Ramadi, which is right outside of Baghdad, was only reinforced with around 3,000 troops as ISIS moved against the town in late April, according to Pregent.

Google Maps Google Maps

The city is so sparsely reinforced because it ‘s primarily Sunni, and falls along a populated, Sunni-heavy, hard-to-defend axis that includes Fallujah and the Sunni Baghdad suburb of Abu Ghraib.

The “red line” is drawn at the Shi’ite neighborhoods that lie beyond a defensible position near Abu Ghraib. Shi’ite Iran and its militia partners in Iraq aren’t as willing to fight and die for a place that sits beyond their primary line of defense — yet another reason Iran might not actually be that committed to defeating ISIS.

- Armin Rosen.

Read: Isis video purports to show massacre of Ethiopian Christians>

Read: Video shows ISIS beheading four men and hanging their bodies on crosses>

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    Mute The Green Monkey
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:21 PM

    An American with an unbiased view of Iran…………

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:24 PM

    A barely mentioned American who gets to post this on an Irish website – what was that the german journalist wrote again ?
    Ah yes the western media is ran by the C.I.A. …
    He could be right !

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    Mute Stephen O'Sullivan
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:11 PM

    Really surprised that the influence of Saudi Arabia politically and militarily is not mentioned at all in the article..what’s going on at the moment in the Middle East is more of a power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia as they find themselves supporting opposing factions. A battle of hearts and minds in the Muslim world to see which is the true protector upholder of Islamism. ISIS received its seed money from Arabian gulf state donors, Al Quaeda was formed and supported by hardline Wahhabists, 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudis. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, The Saudis laid on charter flights and sponsorship to fighters who wanted to join the Mujahadeen to fight the Soviets.

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:38 PM

    It’s like the Catholics and Protestants years ago arguing the interpretation of a dead prophet – two different factions and the arms industry and the political figures who don’t go to war receiving adulation from the uneducated …

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    Mute Kool Tiger
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:49 PM

    Stephen, sheesh now, you know nobody is allowed to say anything bad those peace loving Saudis, not in western media anyway

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    Mute Martin Gallagher
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:28 PM

    Ever wonder who drew up those countries borders in the first place? Check out The Treaty of Sevres for an answer. Western intervention in the middle east goes a long way back in history and we’re still making the same mistakes today.

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    Mute Colm O'Connor
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:53 PM

    The British and french did after world war one

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:36 PM

    against the wishes of the desert tribes ..

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    Mute Kool Tiger
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    May 2nd 2015, 9:46 PM

    Why don’t the peace loving Saudis get their nice shiny jets up into the Sky’s above the IS occupied areas of Syria and Iraq and bombard the bejazus out of these IS phycos like they are doing to the Houthi in Yemen?

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    Mute Paul Mc
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    May 2nd 2015, 11:38 PM

    @Tiger maybe the Saudis don’t like bombing their fellow Sunni Muslims.

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    Mute Derek
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:40 PM

    “…filled the vacuum in the countries still officially known as Iraq and Syria”

    What does this even try to imply?
    The Kurds and Iranians are doing far more than “The West” so a dose of heavily US biased journalism is required before people see them as anything other than the enemy and our next villains to target for reason *not yet fabricated*. Can we please get a map showing the actions taken and area’s influenced by the US military portraying their full intentions in fighting ISIS?

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    Mute None
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    May 2nd 2015, 9:24 PM

    The headline itself was enough to justify not reading the article. Rubbish.

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    Mute R M
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:57 PM

    I agree. How has such tripe been published. Pure conjecture. Displays the standards prevalent at this publishing house.

    ISIS, if it even exists, is being kept alive by the West. Could the author answer me as to why the Syrian Air Force, with its much depleted numbers of aircraft, flies more sorties against ISIS on a daily basis than the coalition of 60 countries led by the US does in a month. Hmm….

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    Mute cLZdjjfe
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    May 2nd 2015, 9:46 PM

    This article is a joke.

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    Mute Chris
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    May 2nd 2015, 11:01 PM

    This crap is straight out of neocon central, unashamed propaganda and lies.

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    Mute Hermes
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    May 2nd 2015, 11:19 PM

    It ranks in intelligence with this clown and his attempt to explain things ..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwZW83VH6tA

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    Mute Pat O'Dwyer
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:35 PM

    This is a total lie. ISIS are a CIA and MOSAD creation. To create havoc in the ME to Israel’s advantage.
    Western press caught lying once again.

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    Mute Tony Canning
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:56 PM

    Oh really? And you’re basing this on the Snowden documents are you?

    The Snowden documents which have been shown not to say anything of the sort?

    Or have you been on infowars or some other tinfoil hat site?

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    Mute Glen
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    May 2nd 2015, 9:29 PM

    Actually Tony you stated the same thing a little while back so maybe he is basing it on your info.

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    Mute Tony Canning
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    May 2nd 2015, 9:36 PM

    I dont think I explicitly said so – In fact, I believe I said that there was a feeling of belief in that – not that it was a fact.

    You’re welcome to search it out – but that would be kind of pointless i think.

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    Mute Kool Tiger
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:02 PM

    Saudi jets bombed Sanaa airport on Tuesday to prevent Iranian aid of medicine and food getting to Yemeni people who are desperately in need of basic supplies after being pulverised by Saudi aerial bombing for weeks now and western media completely ignore this illegal bombing of innocent people. Now IS are claiming to have a foothold in Yemen as a result of the chaos caused by the illegal Saudi bombing campaign.

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    Mute Brian O' Connor
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:34 PM

    Not suggesting genocide but the solution offered is just that! The entire arsenal of the “west’s nuclear arsenal would obliterate infinitely more than that region and entire populations of many countries would be wiped out. How any sane person could suggest such a ” solution” is beyond belief.

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    Mute Brian O' Connor
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:01 PM

    This type of geo/political concoction is a modern version of MacKinder’s Heartland Theory and is a propaganda tool used by governments in their foreign policy escapades. Referring to regions/states/countries as if they were people is known as reifying and succeeds in dehumanising entire regions so so called solutions like ” dropping a few Nukes on them” can easily bypass the sheer inhumanity of the idea.

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    Mute Brian MacCarthaigh
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    May 2nd 2015, 9:54 PM

    Iran is just a smokescreen for Israel wanting to remain the only nuclear power in the region.

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    Mute The Dublin Cynic
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    May 3rd 2015, 1:10 AM

    At least dictators like Saddam, Gedaffi etc kept these headbangers under control

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    Mute deerhounddog
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    May 3rd 2015, 10:47 AM

    American propaganda. AGAIN………

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    Mute Denis Maher
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    May 2nd 2015, 7:50 PM

    Correct pat, PNAC.

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    Mute Jamie Heffernan
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    May 3rd 2015, 7:31 AM

    Zionists

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    Mute John Brendan Mullen
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    May 3rd 2015, 12:38 AM

    Absolutely nothing unusual about this situation. USA surrounds itself with friendly regimes, remember their interference in Cuba, Nicaragua, Chile, etc China does not similar with Tibet, Mongolia Nepal and Fermosa, Saudi Arabia in Yemen etc so why should Iran be any different. ? What’s good for one is good for all.

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    Mute Charles Williams
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    May 3rd 2015, 7:42 AM

    This is like “the surge” analysis, of course when you concentrate forces on ISIS they will be defeated,but what happens is ISIS will move on to another Sunni area just like a trader with a pop up shop. As with ” the surge” theory ,you have to maintain the fight for about the next 500 years.Now I don’t think that a 500 year surge is feasible, so my money is on ISIS surviving as long as Sunni Islam.

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    Mute John Murray
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    May 2nd 2015, 10:48 PM

    Why no line around Lebanon, Hezbollah as Iran’s and Syria’s ally, would at least expect something? I presume.

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