Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
THERE ARE, BELIEVE it or not, 16 republicans vying for their party’s 2016 presidential nomination.
Ever since he threw his hat in the ring, however – one contender’s been stealing the lion’s share of attention.
No prizes for guessing…
His outrageous comments about Mexican “rapists” – made during a bizarre, rambling campaign launch – may have lost him some business, but have done nothing to dent Trump’s popularity with a certain section of GOP voters.
A CNN headline yesterday summed it up pretty well:
The broadcaster’s poll showed the outspoken businessman leading the field, with 18% support amongst republicans. Next best was Former Florida governor (and brother of George W) Jeb Bush at 15%, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker on 10%.
A poll of New Hampshire voters, by NBC, reflects that pattern: Trump is on 21%, ahead of Bush (14%) and Walker (12%).
A poll by YouGov puts Trump even further ahead – on 28%.
Getting noticed…
Trump’s uncompromising manner and nothing-to-lose attitude mean he has something of an advantage over conventional politicians.
The fact that he’s managed to build up such momentum in spite (because of?) his headline-generating comments about immigrants means that his opponents – current or former elected representatives, for the most part – have had to ramp up their own rhetoric to compete with him.
The former Arkansas governor, who lost out to John McCain for the GOP nomination in 2008, generated controversy at the weekend with comments about the Iran nuclear deal.
Obama was so naive about the Middle Eastern nation that he had agreed to deal that would “take the Israelis and basically march them to the door of the oven,” the former Fox News presenter said.
Huckabee, who has promised to rescind the nuclear deal on his first day in office, told Breitbart News the “idiotic” agreement simply had to be scrapped.
The former Texas governor made a fresh pitch to the gun lobby at the weekend, saying people should be allowed bring firearms into cinemas.
A shooting last week in Louisiana showed gun-free zones are a “bad idea,” he said.
I believe that, with all my heart, that if you have the citizens who are well trained, and particularly in these places that are considered to be gun-free zones, that we can stop that type of activity, or stop it before there’s as many people that are impacted as what we saw in Lafayette.
The low-polling South Carolina Senator – perhaps spurred by the adage that actions speak louder than words – was shown destroying his mobile phone in a Youtube clip.
Why? Donald Trump had given out his number during a rally.
In tandem with having to fight the other second-tier contenders for attention from a news media still fascinated by Trump, there’s also the small matter of the first debate to worry about.
A candidate needs to place in the top ten in an average of national polls to meet the criteria Fox News has set, in order to take to the stage next week in Cleveland.
“If you’re not on the stage you’re irrelevant, you don’t matter,” Republican pollster Frank Luntz told AP.
Unless you have some serious ad dollars, it’s not a glass ceiling. It’s a concrete ceiling.
Looking at the current numbers, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki, ex-Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and South Carolina’s Graham are outside the top ten.
Also close to the edge are Ohio Governor John Kasich and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie – along with Perry.
Huckabee, while probably in with a good shout to make the first debate, also needs to do everything he can to stay part of the conversation (he’s polling seventh).
If a candidate doesn’t make the cut, by Fox’s criteria, they’ll be relegated to a debate among second-string candidates, broadcast before the main event.
In-fighting
Struggling to stay in the race, some of the lower-ranked candidates have been lashing out at Trump in recent days.
Perry, for instance, unloaded on the property magnate last week, calling him a ”barking carnival act” and labeling his campaign a ”toxic mix of demagoguery, mean-spiritedness and nonsense”.
Graham (who’s even further behind, remember) called him a “jackass” after Trump said John McCain was “not a war hero”. (McCain served as a Navy pilot during the Vietnam War, was captured after his plane was shot down and held for more than five years as a prisoner of war).
The increasingly shrill tone of the debate may be bad news for the Republicans in the longer term, analysts have noted.
Curt Anderson, a strategist advising Jindal’s campaign, wrote in the Wall Street Journal last week that the party was sabotaging itself by controlling the debates too much, after concluding that marginal candidates dragged 2012 nominee Mitt Romney too far to the right during the primary process.
“They have come out to limit the number of debates we can have, they dictated who can have it, where you have it and who will moderate it,” Anderson said later in an interview.
The only thing left is to dictate what can be said in it.
Smack-down
The headline-grabbing tactics from the right have reached such a level in recent days, even President Obama has felt the need to get involved.
Breaking with protocol on his African trip, he accused the candidates of violating a time-honoured American tradition of not playing “fast and loose” on topics of grave concern like foreign policy.
“These are leaders in the Republican Party,” he said.
The American people deserve better. Certainly presidential debates also deserve better.
He even singled out Huckabee for particular attention, suggesting his comments on Holocaust ovens were a ploy to “get attention” – or to push Trump out of the headlines.
Includes reporting from Associated Press.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
They shouldn’t be too concerned, the most likely contender to ruin donald trumps chances is donald trump.
I’m surprised he doesn’t have much support here given most people’s attitudes towards minority groups in this country (romanians, nigerians, travellers).
Well isn’t it good to know that support “here” will make feic all difference!
I hope Trump is elected, they deserve him, he will fit right in.
Trump as president of the USA.
Scary thought …
Not if you’re a Republican apparently.
Would be like have Gerry Adams as Taoiseach.
Hmm I was thinking more like an even more abrasive form of a certain Maltese resident…..
“Would be like have Gerry Adams as Taoiseach.”
Gerry Adams: Statesman who risked his life for peace and was invited to form part of the guard of honour at Nelson Mandelas (a personal friend of his) funeral.
Donald Trump: Inherited his fortune from his daddy, ran a business which is literally a license to print money, where the casino always wins,and managed to bankrupt himself.
So, no, it would be nothing like having Adams for Taoiseach.
Connolly I wouldn’t even flatter him with a response.. He’s a well known troll at this stage. Gerry has done more for this country and for peace than he’ll ever dream of
Connolly when they’re creating accounts just to attack SF the must be worried by the recent polls. Mister Emma certainly is
Donald Trump on foreign policy, “I beat China all the time”. Trump on Mexicans, “They bring drugs, crime and they are rapists.” On immigration, “I will build a great, great wall on our southern border and I’ll make the Mexicans pay for it.” On Philanthropy, “I’m a nice person, I give lots of money away to charities and other things, I think I’m a very nice person.” On the Apprenticeship, “All of the women on The Apprentice flirted with me, consciously or unconsciously. That’s got to be expected.”
What’s not to like, I’d vote for him for the craic.
I would too, we used to have characters like this years ago , Oliver J , the Man who owned the Monasterboice Inn to name but two Oh yes and Owen O’Duffy who was actually more right wing than Trump
Madness,it would be like putting a primary schoolteacher from Mayo,who inherited his seat,in charge of this country!
It would and if the Dail was almost filled with even more schoolteachers ..but no we wouldn’t go that , would we ?
Do that
Lindsey Graham for President? Seriously, would you give him control of a nuclear arsenal considering that he thinks that if he wants to change his mobile number then he has to change/demolish his phone! Has he ever heard of SIM cards?
Seems to me like Trump is the Republicans smoke screen or distraction for the media.
Living here in the US, all you hear is DT this and that. Not a peep about how oddball the other candidates are or how off track their ideas are.
Id put money down that Trump will back out really early as soon as the republicans figure out which other candidate has least amount of sh*t stuck to them.
It’s hard to imagine which one would pass the less creepy test. Maybe the one from Ohio. But that’s about it.
And something nobody has commented on: Chris Christie hasn’t lost any weight despite having weight loss surgery.
The GOP have two major problems here. One – if Trump wins the nomination, then he loses the election. At the moment, a prospective Trump v Clinton (assuming Hillary is nominated) is won by the Democrats 59-41.
Secondly – and possibly even more concerning for the GOP, is Trump losing the nomination, and running as a third party candidate. Current polling shows him getting about 20% in the election, with 75% of that coming from Republican supporters (or around 15% of the total electorate). No GOP candidate wins with that big of a hit to their support.
Somehow the GOP has to find a way for Trump to leave the race without causing too much collateral damage. Most other scenarios gives the Democrats another 4 years at least in the White House.
(Polling source fivethirtyeight.com)
Donald Trump gets president,I’m going to Mars!
Take Emma with you
Ehhhm No thanks!
Jesus, so many nobs, looks like the election is for the democrats to lose.
Wow it is like the omen 3 with him running for president.
Damien trump
The problem the Republicans have is that all of their candidates are flawed and/or nut jobs that cannot win a national election.
The problem is ,if your opponent has a gun in the cinema or theatre, surely you should have a grenade or rocket launcher to “out gun” him. Obviously these Republicans are psychos, sad, sick bast–ds.
Seems like a race to the bottom.
If Trump gets the nomination and ends up being elected could someone please clue in Ray Darcy beforehand and get him to promise to leave the country again – this time legally binding! and yes I realise it is another Nation but I can dream..
I hope that the EU doesn’t sign any trade deals with America……
No worries about Putin then if Trump gets elected……..
have your say