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LABOUR’S POLL NUMBERS have been pretty much stagnant since Joan Burton took over the leadership nearly 18 months ago.
Eamon Gilmore’s resignation in May 2014 was prompted by a disastrous local and European elections where Labour won just 7% of the vote. His successor has not delivered – in the polls at least – the ‘Burton Bounce’ many had hoped for.
Until recently, Labour was still on 7% and though the latest Red C poll puts the party on 9% it knows it needs to be significantly better than this with the general election just weeks away.
So could the other leadership contender, Alex White, have done a better job?
“God, I dunno,” White laughed as he responded instinctively to a question he probably wasn’t expecting when TheJournal.ie asked him this week.
During that summer 2014 leadership campaign, there was a sense that White was making up the numbers, ensuring there was at least a leadership contest to be had.
In the end it was no contest at all as Burton won the election with some 2,094 votes out of 2,720, to her competitor’s 607 – a landslide.
So if Burton’s election was so inevitable, why did White even bother?
I ran for the leadership because I thought I could do a good job and I gave a certain presentation of the party in terms of what our beliefs are and what we can do in this country and we’ve done a huge amount.
The polls would indicate otherwise while also showing that Burton has done little to impact the party’s standing in the public’s view.
White, of course, thinks Labour will do better when the election is called.
But are the poor poll numbers not a reflection on Burton’s failure to turn things around for Labour?
“I don’t think so, the leader is only one part of a political party’s presentation,” White insisted.
If you look at the same polls [when they] ask the question about the leader – the popularity of the leadership – she’s right up there with the other leaders. So I don’t think it can be attributed to the leader.
He believes that Labour can do better than most people think once the election is called, a mantra we repeatedly hear from the junior coalition partner.
Labour can be competitive in “most, if not all” of the Dublin constituencies and has TDs whose name alone will get them re-elected, White said.
Though he does not mention them by name these include the likes of Brendan Howlin in Wexford, Emmet Stagg in Kildare North and Willie Penrose in Longford-Westmeath.
White is reluctant to put a number on the amount of seats Labour will return. But when pushed, he said that between 27 and 30 seats would be “terrific”. But most realistic expectations are that between 15 and 20 would be a good day for Labour.
Whites own seat is in serious jeopardy. Dublin South and has gone from five seats to three and part of White’s stronghold has moved into the enlarged Dublin South-West.
He had considered moving, but recently wrote to constituents in DSW explaining why he didn’t.
“It is a tough one,” he admits of the new Dublin Rathdown, while insisting that contrary to recent reports there have not been any polls carried out by Labour in the constituency.
He added: “I think I’ve got a good, strong chance of being re-elected in Dublin Rathdown but it’s going to be up to the people. It’ll be a very tough campaign, a hard campaign.”
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Only seemed like yesterday the values were through the floor. I emigrated during the big crash and bought property/set up shop in another country. Now I’m a happy homeowner & landlord. A fair landlord. This housing stuff in Ireland really saddens me. There will prob be a twin tier society over it. People with financial power will overpay. People without financial power will struggle so badly to live. And live in horrible conditions. Very sad. Emigrating was the hardest decision I ever made. But I’m glad I did. Previous comment is correct. Boom bust is common in some places. Usually places rich in natural resources like oil etc. But it’s not something that that suits the Irish economy. Start building high rises could be the solution here
@Ronan McDermott: well said, not convinced about high rises but you are asking the questions no one wants to answer. Fair play.
@Greedylocks: I hear you about the highrises. Ballymun didn’t work out. But on a small island you can’t always build out. Maybe time to build up. Especially in Dublin. Give people somewhere respectable to live and then you’ll see the real value of these 70s style dumps that landlords are currently renting to people at extortionate rates. The value would be sfa. I’m thinking about quality of life here. As right now it’s not very good for so so many people
@Ronan McDermott: well said.
This is an extraordinary misleading economical model. We are in a cycle of boom and bust. Eventually nobody will risk lending this country money. Vulture funds are gathering to pick the bones.
@Greedylocks: the neoliberal model can only produce boom bust cycles, where the wealthy get wealthier as money is siphoned to the top. So they can ride out the storm, unless they fail to save for the inevitable crash, and those at the bottom pay the consequences. A model based on permanent growth on a planet with finite resources, what could possibly go wrong????
@Greedylocks: the neoliberal model can only produce boom bust cycles, where the wealthy get wealthier as money is siphoned to the top. So they can ride out the storm, unless they fail to save for the inevitable crash, and those at the bottom pay the consequences. A model based on permanent growth on a planet with finite resources, what could possibly go wrong????
A model based on exploiting human vulnerabilities through advertising, and serving the market, always a volatile thing, so that the market will meet all our needs. We see the failure of it all around us and blindly elect the same parties with the same policies to do the same thing again and again as if this one time it might work…….
This has been years in the making by our FG whose primary mission has been to recapitalise the banks. The homeless crisis and the unaffordability of houses is barely a thorn in the side for them.
@Quiet Goer: Surely you mean FFG .. Media not telling the true story again at local elections as FFG lose more and more ground. The people are slowly awakening….
@Willy: sf lost the most ground
We are bubbling our way to another bust.
Note that property investment trusts are selling out now to cash in at the top of the market.
These guys know when to cash in their chips.
@William Kelly: you are correct I’m afraid we will be heading for another slump , housing prices cannot keep going up and up.
It’s only in Dublin though, most of the rest of the country are still below 2013 levels
a housing bubble inflated by the European central bank policy to give money to the banks for free. we on the other hand must pay interest on that loan and the banks make money by doing nothing.
who here knows anything about Deusch Bank?
people wanna get smart very quick to what is going on again……2007
Kensington in London, Upper East side in New York, 6th arrondissement in Paris. These Dublin prices are here to stay. It’s nothing to do with ‘neo-liberal’ policies. It’s to do with supply and demand. Why can the hard left never understand this ?
@Virgil: that’s what they said last time…..
Anyone know how many in government own second properties?
@thesaltyurchin: 15 landlords sit in the dail at any given day,but I could be wrong,FG k o Connell has 8 property’s .
Our wonderful banks must be approaching solvency so.
have your say