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NEWS THIS WEEK of a potential ceasefire in the Syrian Civil War was met with approval from the international community.
On Friday, world powers agreed to a ‘cessation of all hostilities’ to begin within a week’s time.
However, before this was announced, Aleppo in northern Syria had been making international headlines all week.
Here, we take a look at what’s going on there? Why is it significant? Who are the key players and what does this mean for the wider Syrian conflict as well as nearby Turkey and Europe?
The Syrian province and city has been the centre of a struggle between rebels and government forces for the past four years, as both try to gain control of the once prosperous area.
The province of Aleppo has been a rebel stronghold for the past number of years. Last week, the Syrian Government, backed by Russian air bombardment and a number of other key players, launched a massive assault on the northern province.
Why is Aleppo important?
The city of Aleppo is the capital city of the northern Aleppo province. It is the ‘second city’ of Syria (after Damascus), and its old city district (which has been mostly destroyed in the war) is a UNESCO World Heritage site. Before the civil war started, it was called the commercial capital of Syria.
For 18 months after the beginning of the civil war, Aleppo managed to avoid the conflict which had engulfed the rest of Syria since it began in March 2011.
However, in July 2012, fighting broke out there between the rebel groups and the forces of president Bashar al-Assad.
Since then, the city has been subjected to intense battles, with government forces controlling the western half of the city and the rebels controlling the east.
The city and surrounding towns had long-been a stronghold for more moderate Syrian rebels supported by Turkey, as well as Kurdish militia groups and some more extreme armed groups.
Militants from the Islamic State group used to control several neighborhoods in Aleppo, but they were forced out by other rebels in early 2014.
The city is close to Turkey, which is sympathetic to the rebels. This has enabled rebels to receive much-needed supplies from across the Turkish border. This, as well as its status as the second capital of Syria, make it a key position to hold.
Why is Aleppo in the news again?
On Monday, 1 February Syrian government forces, strongly backed by Russian air-strikes, Iranian forces and other militias, launched a major offensive on the northern province, sending tens of thousands of people fleeing for the nearby Turkish border and seriously impacting the wider civil-war.
By that Saturday, the rebels’ main supply route into Aleppo city was cut off by government forces, leaving those left in inside virtually surrounded and isolated from any support.
Rebel opposition forces and some 350,000 civilians inside Aleppo city now face the prospect of a government siege, a tactic that has been employed to devastating effect against other former rebel strongholds.
Russia entered the conflict on the side of the government in September. Since then it has helped government forces recapture territory and has backed ground movements by Assad’s forces.
Russia has been criticised by the United States and others for focussing attacks on the more moderate Syrian rebels instead of Islamic State. Now, it would seem as though the combined might of both forces is working.
In a series of reports from the frontline, international medical organisation, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), condemned the pro-government bombing campaign.
The organisation said that in the smaller city of Azaz, just north of Aleppo, the health system is close to collapse, as tens of thousands flee towards the border with Turkey.
MSF is also warning that relief agencies will not be able to handle the increase in displaced people.
“The camps have no capacity to take in new arrivals,” said Muskilda Zancada, MSF Head of Mission in Syria.
There is a risk that people, including young children and the elderly, could be stuck living in the open in freezing conditions, for several days at least. We expect that there could be severe health effects, and pneumonia is a big concern.
Recently Turkey have also started a bombing campaign against the Kurdish YPG in Aleppo.
What does this mean for Syria?
Many commenters believe that the government turnaround in Aleppo could be the turning point in the civil war, with reports that it could be the greatest victory for government forces since the conflict began.
With their main supply route with sympathetic Turkey cut off, and their base effectively surrounded, the rebels are staring down a long and gruelling defeat.
With Aleppo under its control, the Syrian government will consolidate its grip on the west coast of Syria – by far the more economically powerful area of the country.
Islamic State will still control large swathes to the north and east, but for the more moderate rebels – backed by the US and Europe – this could spell the end.
“The trajectory for the rebels is downwards, and the downward slope is increasingly steep,” Emile Hokayem, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told AFP.
What will this mean for Europe?
As the campaign in Aleppo province began, tens of thousands of civilians fled from their homes and began to amass on the Turkish border. At least 50,000 people are now thought to have fled their homes since 1 February, with over 500 people dead.
Turkey has always maintained that it has an open-border policy for people fleeing the conflict, but has kept its doors closed as it attempted to figure what the do with the new refugees.
While Friday’s announcement of the cessation of hostilities was welcomed, cracks are already beginning to show in the plan, with Bashar al-Assad swearing to retake all of Syria with his campaign – including areas controlled by the Islamic State.
MSF has welcomed news of the ceasefire, but said that much had to be done for the people suffering in Syria.
“Any agreement to provide more humanitarian assistance is desperately needed. Syrians living under bombs and in fear need to see the agreement move from paper to reality,” said Jane-Ann McKenna, Director of MSF in Ireland.
As the battle rages in Aleppo, it is triggering another great movement of people in the direction of Europe, which took in over 500,000 Syrians last year.
Greece is already overwhelmed with refugees coming in from Turkey. And a number of EU countries have openly baulked at the idea of taking in more people.
As the push continues from Syria, only time will tell what course of action Bashar al-Assad’s and Russia’s forces will take now that they’ve surrounded Aleppo.
Either way, this shift in the battle of Aleppo will have a huge effect on the course of the civil-war, as well as on the fate of Syria more generally.
With reporting from AP and AFP
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Love to know what sat nav he was using as Grafton street has been pedestrian since the 80′s
@Derek hutchings: Depends what time late night early morning it is opened to delivery vans and trucks.
@Derek hutchings: probably Google because its hopeless.
@James O’Brien: i am not making excuses for this driver. It just reminded me I was visiting Brussels a few years ago and used my Garmin sat nav to get around on foot, you can set it for “pedestrian mode” so it will navigate you to your destination down pedestrian only areas. The next day I was using the same sat nav in the rental car and I forgot to reset the setting for “car mode”….it took me a while to realize why it was telling me to get off every motorway and use minor roads and telling me to go down pedestrian only alleys etc. GPS/Sat Navs are really great but it doesn’t mean you have to suspend your common sense and just blindly follow a device like that.
@James O’Brien: sat nav sent me towards a one way. I didn’t follow instructions as I knew the street. Both iPhone and google sat navs are unreliable regularly
@Diddles Daffy: they are only unreliable if you follow them without looking at road sings.
Thought there were barriers to stop random drivers taking to Grafton St.
@Brendan Geoghegan: Best hope the Ones who want to “kill” us all don’t read this article.
@Brendan Geoghegan: I was just looking at these this week… big boxes with a huge gap on either side big enough to fit an arctic down. luckily we only have satnav related issues, and not something bigger.
The ‘sat nav’ was probably an old Ordnance Survey Map with compass-
A tweet and 4 sentences, where the 4 sentences repeat exactly what the tweet says but even more impressive, the first and last sentence repeat each other.
What’s new. There are unaccompanied Learner Drivers everywhere including on the motorways. No enforcement unless in s bizarre instance like this, and the insurance continue to give them 3rd party cover so as to collect the huge premiums they can charge them
@Randal McNally: Insurance is nullified if you don’t have a full licenced driver with you on a learner permit I think, so they were also uninsured..
I hope they impounded that pesky satnav to be sent to the crusher.
Spud picker no doubt lol
@shane campion: or perhaps an Abbey St smackie local.
You’d think with the terror threat that all heavy pedestrianised streets would be protected by Barriers and bollards to prevent vehicles travelling down them.
@Jordan Kearney:
That’s what buskers are for!
I was in college in Wexford about 10 years ago and a girl and her BF drove to Dublin for the first time with his Dads sat nav.
Well I couldn’t stop laughing for days later !!!! The sat nav brought them into Dublin up the old coast road through Wicklow they didn’t know there was a better road like the N11 and M50 !!!!
Off to the crushers with it.
@Reg: Surprised to see a Ford Focus been driven up Grafton St without breaking down. One of the worst cars on the road. It would be no loss if it was crushed!
@Maureen: I just traded in a Ford Focus, had it 4 years, drove 80,000km. Never had as much as a puncture. Just saying.
@Maureen: Ignorant comment, ford focus is one of the best selling cars for over 20 years, if they were that bad they wouldn’t be around.
@brendan H: friend had an usual 1.9 Gia Focus Saloon Diesel 120 BHP absolute dynamite beautiful car never gave trouble except heavy on suspension parts.
Why is it when Idiots act the Idiot and when they are caught its usually no Insurance ,NCT , and no driving licence
@Scottyal: because, only idiots drive without tax, insurance or NCT!
@Peter Cavey: Yes we already know that But to draw attention to yourself
You’d imagine that because of all that ,they’d at least try not to bring attention onto themselves
@Scottyal: because they are allowed to do it,guards couldn’t give a toss now who is on the road.legal or not.
Nobody should blindly follow a satnav.. if road signs say something and the satnav says something else then go with the road sign. The satnav will recalculate, but there will be no recalculation of the fine or the penalty points…!!
@Stephen Duffy: me thinks the sat nav had nothing to do with this one though
Typical motorist, won’t be long before he’s doing hit and runs
At least he wasnt one of those idiots driving with an L AND a N plate – by himself. Why are the Garda letting off people who display L plates who are alone in their cars? Do we have to wait for them to do something stupid to stop them?
@Dave Harris:
The lone drivers may be the fully licenced and insured ‘accompianist” in some cases.
@Dave Harris: what if they have a licensed split personality?
@Michael Kavanagh: the plates are only supposed to be up when th e car is being used by the learner or novice, they are not permanent.
@Dave Harris: L DRIVERS driving on their own is against the law now,but still they ignore the law,guards couldn’t be bothered enforcing it anyway,it’s no wonder they are still doing it.
@GClare:
Its not easy to get the usual vinyl types off and impossible to get them back in right.
@Michael Kavanagh: so why have they got L plates on the car?
L plates are to tell others a learner is driving.
They’re not hard to take off and put back on when a learner is actually driving
Ford. A great car, had one for 10 years no trouble
@Roy Keating Sr.: I had a rental one recently – found it to be a very heavy vehicle with the requirement for a petrol tanker driving behind you, but then I was waiting on my efficient diesel to be repaired
Idiot
My sat nav on my phone samsung s7 did the same from Harcourt street
I hope his driving license will be revoked for life.
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