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Sasko Lazarov

'A political earthquake': RTÉ exit poll 'a tragedy' for coalition candidates

The second poll is in.

Updated 8.39am

FINE GAEL AND Labour look to be well short of an overall majority after today’s General Election, according to the first exit polls.

The RTÉ exit poll this morning shows that based on first preference votes the parties are at these percentages:

Fine Gael 24.8%

Fianna Fáil 21.1%

Sinn Féin 16%

Labour 7.1%

Independents 11%

AAA/PBP 4.7%

Soc Dems 3.7%

Green Party 3.6%

Independent Alliance 3%

Renua 2.4%

Others 2.6%

000bdb20-521 RTE RTE

This poll was conducted at 225 polling stations, with randomly selected 4283 people.

Last night’s Irish Times exit poll showed similar results.

A tragedy

Responding to the results of the exit poll on Morning Ireland, Fine Gael’s general secretary Tom Curran conceded his party looks likely to “fall short”.

He said he was conscious of the fact that “good people that stood for both Fine Gael and the Labour party will probably lose their seats either today or tomorrow and that is a tragedy.”

“If it’s true, it’s hard to put a finger on what one thing went wrong, the most important thing is we have to accept the decision of the electorate of that is the decision.”

From the Taoiseach’s point of view, he will be very disappointed and will be taking stock.

Labour TD Derek McDowell said “it’s clearly not going to be a good day” for his party.

Clearly we’re going to lose some good comrades in the course of he day and I’m very sorry about that.

When it comes to winning seats, Labour will be looking at how the independent vote splinters, he said. He expects between eight and nine seats but they could win more of independent votes transfer to Labour candidates.

“If they transfer between each other, frankly, we’re in for a very bad day,” he commented.

Coalition?

Fianna Fáil’s director of elections, TD Billy Kelleher, said it was an “anxious and nervous” morning for the party’s candidates.

He said that if the poll is reflective of the actual outcome of the election, Fianna Fáil will have met its targets, though he pointed out that none of the ballot boxes have yet been opened and there may well be some surprises today.

When asked if he still believed it would not be credible for his party to join Fine Gael in a coalition, Kelleher said that if a political party wanted to retain its identity, it had to stand up and campaign on its policies, they could not “in the same breath, say you can move that if things don’t work out”.

The results of the poll indicate support for Fianna Fáil is strongest among the older cohort of voters, and weak with younger groups. Kelleher said the challenge now for the party would be in attracting these younger voters by introducing new candidates.

A new alignment

Anti Austerity Alliance TD Paul Murphy described the results of the poll as “a political earthquake”.

He said it will mean instability from the point of view of the political establishment, with the Labour party now “in very, very deep crisis”.

With a result of 3.7% for the Social Democrats in RTÉ’s exit poll, Roisín Shortall was feeling positive.

“Certainly, if that was to translate into the actual vote in this election, we’d be very happy with that,” she said.

She said it would be a big win for the party considering it has only been in existence for the last eight months and had been “operating on a shoestring in many ways”, dependent, for the most part, on young volunteers.

Results like these indicate, she said, “a new alignment happening in Irish politics”, and it had been clear throughout the campaign that voters were looking for something different.

“The pitch that Fine Gael put to people about putting more money in people’s pockets by cutting taxes simply was not believeable by the public.”

- With reporting by Michelle Hennessy.

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    Mute Kerry Blake
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    May 1st 2017, 7:47 PM

    Well done Siobhán a great article. Respect and I wish you well on your next steps.

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    Mute Declan Hedderman
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    May 1st 2017, 7:45 PM

    siobhan brady you are a beautiful soul

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    Mute Gary Doggett
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    May 1st 2017, 8:04 PM

    Well done Siobhán, it’s very brave to articulate your difficulties in this way. Hopefully others will be encouraged to seek help too.

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    Mute Marie Gunbay
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    May 1st 2017, 8:15 PM

    I take my hat off to you Siobhan what an inspiration you are to people with mental health issues.

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    Mute Paul Foot
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    May 1st 2017, 7:39 PM

    Mental illness was very prevalent in this country for years – but hidden and denied. Like being anti-Catholic, gay or a West brit…

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    Mute lavbeer
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    May 1st 2017, 8:39 PM

    @Paul Foot: or being an arsehole maybe?

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    Mute Stephen murphy
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    May 1st 2017, 11:37 PM

    @lavbeer: You’ll find, Arseholes are needed and you’d be f%*ked without one.

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    Mute ChuckE
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    May 1st 2017, 9:32 PM

    A brilliant article and eye-opener. If more people could open up like you I’m sure many more could be helped

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    Mute B Collins
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    May 2nd 2017, 12:58 AM

    And fair play to the teacher who stepped up and supported her.

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    Mute 6ljJQRRU
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    May 1st 2017, 11:27 PM

    I think mental health issues are now understood which is positive There’s articles on it every day. What’s overlooked is I always feel sorry for family in this situation. They have to endure a lot often their own lives are put on hold. I think their needs should be recognised prominently as well especially that there can be other stressful things going on in their lives e.g. money worries, medical problems, elderly care etc.

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    Mute Stephen murphy
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    May 1st 2017, 11:40 PM

    @6ljJQRRU: I think, some of it or most is due to society and how we live. We are social creatures, living in a toxic environment and greed drives it.

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    Mute Patricia Tsouros
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    May 2nd 2017, 6:29 AM

    You are certainly a force breaking the stigma around mental health. Excellent personal article, well done.

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    Mute Leeann Amy Bryan
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    May 2nd 2017, 4:31 PM

    Well done Siobhan, great article. V. Inspirational best of luck with whatever the future holds.

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    Mute John O'Driscoll
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    May 3rd 2017, 4:24 AM

    Good woman Siobhain and fair play for your honesty and to Seechange also for support. World inside our heads most often does us far more damage than the world outside our heads. Guy on a plane in California once said that to me and he was a silicon valley guru one of the originals. Stayed with me ever since. Find it useful to recall quite often. Reframing and repackaging one’s own thoughts can greatly ease (dis)stress and promote eustress.

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    Mute Cathy O Rourke
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    May 5th 2017, 1:01 AM

    I would just like to thank you for this article. It has helped a small way to me understanding depression even though I have suffered bouts of it as well and am on medI cation now.. i was an adult when i began to get it. How utterly isolating and lonely it must have been for you at 13 to deal with this. I wish you the very best in life and keep up the writing. Cathy

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    Mute Fisher Jackson
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    May 3rd 2017, 5:28 AM

    I know people will be complaining about their marriage, and their relationship, especially the women, they usually complain about their husband does not love them anymore, their husband is cheating on them and even their husband left them, but my case was similar to theirs, my name is Sonia Walker, I am from Texas, USA, I had a very similar case with theirs, my husband, Walker left me with my two kids, for no reason, he said he does not love me anymore, he left for about 5 years, he never called me even my kids, I had a friend, Anita, she had a case similar to mine but her husband is now with her, I told her my problems I was facing, she told me about a great man that helped her to solve her problems, she introduced me to the great Baba ubeji, a man with great powers and kindness, he told me that my problems will be solved, so I believed, then after one week, it was unbelievable my husband came to me asking me for forgiveness, I accepted him, he has changed some much since when he came back, I just want to thank, the great Baba ubeji for his understanding and love, my friends if you are facing similar problems with me and even some other problem just email him at greatbabaubeji@gmail.com

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