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GRUMBLINGS IN FINE Gael over Enda Kenny’s leadership have begun to emerge five months after the party lost 26 seats in the general election.
While only a handful of backbench TDs have called for Kenny to stand aside straight away, the Taoiseach himself has previously said he will not lead the party into another general election.
Fearful of a snap poll being forced by a resurgent Fianna Fáil, or by the Independent Alliance ministers, some Fine Gael TDs are increasingly anxious for a change in leadership.
Either way, an election looks increasingly likely between now and the end of 2017, and the jockeying for position among the party’s leading contenders has already commenced.
The fate of both Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, both of whom helped to depose British prime minister David Cameron, is perhaps one reason why no Fine Gael figures have, as yet, declared their hand.
In the words of Britain’s Lord Heseltine – the man who deposed Margaret Thatcher – he who wields the knife rarely wears the crown.
Here we give you the five most likely successors to Enda Kenny as leader of Ireland’s largest political party.
The Dublin West TD became the first openly gay cabinet minister when, a year ago, he came out on his 36th birthday, a decision which cut the odds of a future Taoiseach Varadkar.
The son of a Wexford mother and an Indian GP father, the former Young Fine Gael stalwart has won garlands for his plain-speaking style.
One of the few politicians in the country identifiable by his first name, Leo won plaudits for his performance as Transport Minister, including the start of construction for the Luas Cross City project ahead of schedule.
Despite making little headway over hospital waiting lists and the perennial problem of patients on trolleys, his popularity appears scarcely dented from his time as Minister for Health, partly down to assured media performances and his ability to win extra budget funds from the Department of Finance.
He was unceremoniously demoted to the Department of Social Protection in the last reshuffle, but if Kenny was hoping to lower his public profile by placing him at a new department, it seems to have backfired.
Bookies’ favourite
The latest Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI poll puts the Dublin West TD on 31% public support, 10 points clear of his nearest rival, while Paddy Power has him as the 11/10 favourite.
Yet under Fine Gael rules, the next leader will be chosen by weighted vote of 50% for the parliamentary party; 20% for councillors; and 30% for party members.
With Kenny eager to prevent a Varadkar succession, and much of the front bench still firmly in the Taoiseach’s camp, lucky Leo could have a fight on his hands.
Chances: His popularity among the wider public could swing the party behind him.
The new minister responsible for dealing with the Irish Water debacle and the homelessness crisis is second favourite to Varadkar for the leadership, with 21% of support according to recent polls.
What he might lack in charisma, he compensates for in management of his brief, and the Cork South Central’s time as agriculture minister has done him no harm with old voters and large farmers, a traditional Fine Gael electorate.
Botched heave
Coveney cut a reassuring presence during the horsemeat crisis, and presciently predicted a partnership of sorts between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil prior to the last election.
He was rumoured to have put himself forward as a compromise candidate during Richard Bruton’s botched heave against Enda Kenny in 2010, and remains second favourite with the bookmakers at 7/4.
It remains to be seen whether Kenny’s decision to hand him two challenging briefs was a pat on the back for his efficient administration, or a poisoned chalice.
Chances: Substantial. Could yet win Kenny’s backing as an alternative to Varadkar.
Appointed Tánaiste by Enda Kenny following the last general election, the Justice Minister is seen as less independent of the Taoiseach than Coveney or Varadkar, and thus less likely to trigger a leadership contest.
Promoted from Minister for Children and Youth Affairs to replace outgoing justice minister Alan Shatter in 2014, the former social worker lost her seat in 2002, only returning to the Dáil in 2011.
Last September Fitzgerald, 65, gave an interview in which she refused to rule out becoming Fine Gael’s first female leader.
She was criticised following the O’Higgins Report for her handling of the whistleblower controversy, and Commissioner Noirin O’Sullivan’s knowledge of the meeting between Maurice McCabe and two Garda officers.
Yet coming so soon after the formation of a new government, the political fallout was limited.
At 10/1 with the bookmakers, she could pose as a compromise candidate to avoid political bloodletting, yet those seeking a change from the Kenny era are likely to plump for younger colleagues.
Chances: Small, but don’t rule her out.
The new health minister has already made his meteoric mark upon the party, but at the tender age of 29 it may be too soon for the Wicklow TD to take the party reins.
Harris made his name as an able media performer during two years as junior minister in the Department of Finance, becoming nicknamed Minister for Floods for his penchant of turning up in wellies after a river had burst its banks.
His elevation to the Department of Health, putting him in charge of a budget of over €16 billion, was the most breathtaking ministerial promotion of recent times.
Yet that is indicative of his support among the current party leadership.
Chances: Not this time
The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform is rated highly within the party and performed competently as Minister for Transport, although his idea for a Luas line to the airport via his home constituency of Phibsborough was changed by Cabinet.
A capable media performer who holds the line solidly, he would be seen by many as a very safe pair of hands.
But Donohoe doesn’t appear to hold any ambition for the leadership, and recently ruled himself out of any future contest.
Chances: Slim, although could come up on the outside.
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Shouldn’t be under any pressure. It’s not like any of them have a hard act to follow
Yes Tony because he inherited a mess left by Cowen and Fianna Fail, a country on the brink of bankruptcy where we were begging for money almost like the Greeks, major recession and massive job losses and the place was a mess and ….. he led a government which gave the tough medicine we all hated, took the advice of experts, rescued the sinking ship, turned the economy into the fastest in Europe ( see earlier article on Journal about today’s economy reports) and people now have more hope, more jobs and income than a few years ago yet you still MOAN despite Ireland coming in the top 5 or 10 places to live in almost every survey in the world.
Can you show me one country in the world that has had a better turn around under a leader?
Give the leadership to Simon Harris,,a natural progression from chicken to turkey
Don’t let the 1000′s of homeless..the 100′s on hospital trollies..the 2-3 year waiting to see a specialist..the botched attempt to deist a grossly unfair water tax on us…the blatant corruption in the higher offices of government..the continuing unwillingness by the government to intervene in spiralling insurance costs cloud your Utopian vision of this government Greg..adopt the FG mantra…blame someone else.
He’s still wet wet wet behind the ears. Ur joking of course.
Agreed Tony life is not perfect but is there a country that is? Again I refer you to all the lists which puts Ireland as one of the best places to live. Is there any country that you can point to where a leader has turned around a basket case like we had so quick? I personally think Enda has as much charm and charisma as a wet blanket but I don’t want a Bertie or a baby kisser who won’t get stuck in and get things done even if it means pissing us off to get to the end goal.
Greg Who paid for it ? Surely you are not going to answer it was big business we all know the answer . So quit the BS.
Iceland
Coveney’s “flawed pedigree” will also help him greatly in a nation where offshore account holders (or their offspring) are considered to be heroes.
I was talking to a friend from Germany yesterday and he told me that an associate who could not pay a tax bill of 3000 Euros lost his family home which was auctioned off by the state..
Half the farmers in Ireland would have no farms to run, if the German rules ever applied here..
Meanwhile Coveney is determined to pursue those who have boycotted the water taxes.
What a rotten,corrupt,upside-down society we have created.!
So being gay cuts your odds on being leader. What a statement. I thought being a good politician should be what counts but what do I know
Interesting, can you name one good politician in the current Dail?
Catherine Murphy
Now I wonder why people would be red thumbing Catherine Murphy on an article about fg. I suppose it’s easy to figure out. Fg + d o b = red thumbs
Or maybe people don’t agree Catherine Murphy is a good politician.
John Brady.
Well Roy. Considering all she has done highlighting the wrongdoings in irbc, siteserv etc. That says more about them than her. Considering everything she is doing is for the people of this country. Seems some obviously think highlighting these matters is wrong. More the pity them.
Where is the option for non of the above?
Leo the mouth, who is great at everyone elses job.
As cold as ice and detached from every Dept he has run so far and no reason to think he won’t detach himself from the country and blame everyone, anyone
But then again maybe that’s the way to get rid of FG for a long time, Gwan Leo.
When you put the options out like that Enda does not seem half bad
Well it seems the verdict is out on Leo , his a s,ite politician.
The Dublin West TD became the first openly gay cabinet minister when, a year ago, he came out on his 36th birthday, a decision which cut the odds of a future Taoiseach Varadkar.
So they are basically saying it’s all to do with him being gay.
The words shite in hands & clap come to mind
I don’t see why leo is gay should it constantly be highlighted. Being gay doesn’t not make you special, superhuman, have special abilities. It makes no difference to someone’s ability to do a job . So as far as I am concerned, the fact it’s constantly highlighted is boring now. It’s almost like , somehow throwing that in makes it different somehow. It doesn’t.
It does make him fabulous littleone.
You seem a little jealous.. What have you got against Varadkar?
And just to sum it up. Here’s gabby confirming it’s because he is gay and fabulous. Nothing to do with his ability. Thanks for that gabby.
God bless us and save us…….
Is it just me or does anyone else want to slap Simon Harris?
Get in the queue.
All I want to know is did Simon covney benifit is any way from his fathers ANNSBACKER account if he is to become leader of this country he must answer this simple question
Whoever Micheal Martin decides
‘The Dublin West TD became the first openly gay cabinet minister when, a year ago, he came out on his 36th birthday, a decision which cut the odds of a future Taoiseach Varadkar.’
This sort of nonsense.
So.
His ‘popularity’ has nothing to do with ability, political vision (Varadkar’s a dyed in the wool neo liberalist who will privatise anything that isn’t nailed down in Ireland), intelligence or patriotism.
It’s all to do with gay trending on social media.
I fear for the future of my country if he ever leads a cabinet in power
I really do.
(and so should you)
Kenny has done a good job in my opinion. Hope he stays on.
Truly Ireland has no leaders some choice bland or even more bland…..
Fair play Kerry, always the optimist around here. Would you not go, work hard, get ino politics and do it yourself if you’re any better?
I’m honest Greg so that means I’m out of the race. BTW who of the above very bland folk would you go for?
Kerry but if you are ruling out honest people like yourself from going into politics how can you then give out about dishonest people being in politics? Surely if you want honest people in politics then honest people need to go in? You a make a no sense my a frienda
Anyone who actually expresses the desire to lead Fine Gael should automatically be disqualified and thrown in the can!!
Enda is stubborn so he’ll hang on until the government collapses (some time next year). So as long as Fine Gael aren’t in government next time around, that miserable excuse for a human being Noonan could be leader again for all I care.
Enda will certainly be gone by October at the latest for the budget, and more likely by September to make way. Coveney will take it IMO as political support matters more than public support.
@undie can’t see it happening that soon , FF won’t have the numbers to put together a coalition government for at least a year and also won’t want to be seen to pull down the government before even 1 budget and I can’t see anyone in FG putting together a cohesive heave against Enda this year either
Not one positive comment!! Typical of the commentators in here. Came in for a laugh and wasn’t disappointed!!!
Anyone here care to step up and lead the country??? Hahahaha. Didn’t think so.
Our country – in terms of political mediocrities – is up there with the best. Just like paedophile priests and bent bankers.
Leo may have a high profile but when given a chance to make a mark in government he has failed. Coveney had a number of achievements in Agriculture Fisheries and Defence and seems to be making headway in his new post. He has a better track record than the rest. Francis Fitzgerald got a poison chalice in Justice so it won’t help her. The rest of the Fine Gael cabinet have little to offer except for Simon Harris who’s time will come but now. If we want stability Coveney is probably the best option at present.
If you want stability Donohue is the man. Formidable preformer. Head and shoulders abve the others. Couldn’t see any of the current oppostion being able to handle him at all.
Have a feeling if Coveney gets the position then FG will swing considerably further to the right. Unlike most of you I think Leo is the best option. He is straight forward. He certainly doesnt have hidden agendas and is not into a jobs for the boys mindset like Enda.its a new approach which is welcome. Looking at Endas cabinet when he became Taoiseach it consisted only of those who didnt oppose him at the attempted ousting. Not of those who were most capable. Bertie was brilliant at that too. The relationship is acrimonious between the two and my guess is it is precisely because Leo is more capable and he knows it. Lets not forget Leo was in health for 18 months only. Not enough time to make an impact with what is a gargantuan brief.
Kenny shafted varadker and Coveney. It’s really between the 2 of them. .. good help us all if harris or Donohoe got the gig…
A classroom of leaving certs would have brought Ireland back to where it is today,only there would have been no corruption,and all the people could have a life worth living.
We had no government for a good while back earlier in the year, but the trains still ran , people still got on with they’re day to day lives , multi national company’s still made they’re profits , under paid gardai and nurses still went to work , teachers lucky enough to have a job still thought our kids , the bills kept coming through the letterbox , we kept trying to pay them , ………………… Can someone please tell me what the f**k do these “politicians” actually do that makes a difference to the ordinary working class man and women of this country , we already seem to know what they do for “corporate” Ireland , but what do they actually do or have done to make the ordinary persons quality of life just a little better ? Even the words politics and politician has a negative affect on most people let alone the sight of them standing at your door around election time with that stupid “I’m your best friend “look on they’re face !
Coveny is the best of a really bad bunch there. He’s the only one of them that looks like a statesman.
Get this tosser Enda outa here – He’s selling the country out.
Leo Thew⚓ seems most likely?!?!
Wasn’t he one of Paul Hogans characters in the ’80s?
@Michael Lynch: That was Leo W⚓.
Your headline should have read “Contenders Most Likely – To Matter.
I mean to be of relevance because none of them are.
Simon Harris all the way let’s give the young one the reins
Well Greg austerity cut backs on the most vulnerable and everyone outside Dublin neglected. Not to mention single handedly giving the memento back to FF…
Oh God!! None of those mentioned are much use to the Irish people. Is that the best we can do???
None of them bey bey fg
That was Leo W⚓!
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