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ON 5 JANUARY 2011, Dan Neville, then spokesman on mental health for Fine Gael, said: “The potential psychological impact of an economic recession on public health can be severe”.
Almost 12 months later Ireland has had to cope with the impact of the Universal Social Charge, increasing unemployment, continued bailouts which now even include our credit unions, continued decreasing house prices and mortgage arrears – all to the backdrop of a crumbling euro.
These are the most uncertain economic times that this country has ever found itself in. Now more than ever we look to our leaders to lead, to inspire, to create, to simply think outside the box.
Instead we get 2 per cent increase in VAT.
Instead we got more austerity.
Our nation officially now suffers from recession fatigue. In the mid ’90s Dai Williams, a chartered occupational psychologist, wrote a discussion paper documenting the psychological effects of the UK recession 1990-94. The document explains the effect on society of lasting recessions; the effect on families, relationships and communities. It reviewed closely the role of banks, media and government. Quoting from the introduction:
A war might have been easier to understand and justify. For at least a third of the population in the UK recession was like a war without an enemy, causing thousands of fatalities and damaging the lives of millions more.
Does this sound or feel familiar?
In July this year, the Government ministers scrapped their way to the top of the queue to get in front of the TV cameras to talk about the reduction of VAT from 13.5 per cent to 9 per cent for the hospitality sector. All ministers were on message. It was a classic initiative, an incentive to encourage people to spend, a message to help spread positivity for ailing business and more importantly it was an attempt to reduce cost of living for everybody while realigning our hospitality sector to be more competitive.
If that reduction in VAT was to achieve all of this, the question must now be asked, what does this proposed increase in VAT do? What message does it send? What impact does it have on business already struggling, does it now make us more uncompetitive and more importantly what does it do to our society?
After four years of recession in which our nation has crawled on its belly to survive, this decision taken by our new Government will drive our economy over the edge and in doing so will fundamentally scare our society at every level for years to come. Our nation has reached its saturation point in negativity, austerity and economic upheaval.
Today’s economic fear will cause psychological damage
This country is now entering its fifth year of economic fear, it’s entering the fifth year of its people having to adjust to having nothing left in their pocket to spend, nothing to look forward to, families consumed by economic tragedy clinging to survival while all the time knowing that at any point breaking point is just around the corner. The simple truth is that Irish government over the last four years has kicked its people so hard that it is now causing psychological damages that will scare future generations.
Its resolute stance on corporation tax remaining at 12.5 per cent demonstrates its commitment to maintain employment in multinational companies across the country. But does the Department of Finance not understand that employment – important as it is – is just 50 per cent of our economy? Unless people spend, unless we remain competitive and continue to reduce the cost of living in every capacity we will see no recovery.
Is this not a time to address the population of Ireland on national TV and say we will reduce our VAT by 2 per cent? Is it not a time for bravery, to send that ultimate message of hope to all of the people that we will not fear fear itself? Why not encourage spending; why not stay on message as stated by the same office in July when VAT was reduced? Could you imagine the euphoria that such a statement would make? Imagine the reaction, the positivity. Such a reaction would be real and would have a profound effect on the 3.5 million people who are in this country over the age of 15 and spending money daily.
Between 1 January 2001 and February 2002 Charlie McCreevy reduced VAT from 21 per cent to 20 per cent. That 1 per cent decrease in VAT increased revenue by almost half a billion euro. In contrast, Brian Lenihan increased VAT by 0.5 per cent in late 2008 forecasting that the move would generate an extra €227 million. However the Exchequer reported a 21 per cent or €2.8 billion decrease in revenue collected.
The Government argues that the proposed rise could generate over €650 million in a full year. However, they also acknowledge that they have not netted off lost sales to Northern Ireland while at the same time taking no account of the enormous cloud that such a move casts across all sectors of our communities.
Creative thinking would do away with VAT in all of its forms and at the same time abandon the concept of claiming VAT back on purchases. Instead, they would develop a system more inline with the United States by applying a standard rate on all items sold. The variance between the 9 per cent rate and the now to be 23 per cent might allow Finance to find common ground between both rates. Perhaps, the Department could use this new rate as the only rate across all sales. In the meantime layers of waste, paperwork and micro management of the VAT system will have been removed if we do away with reclaims.
We must never forget that our collective core responsibility as a nation is to protect and nurture the next generation and to ensure that we do everything in our power to avoid leaving behind a legacy of emigration, mental health problems, a broken economy and, more importantly, a nation of people so deeply wounded by a gripping austerity programme that shows no sign of easing. Increasing VAT now will serve only to strangle an already fragile economy while destroying our any glimmer of hope that the Irish people have of putting this crisis behind us.
George Mordaunt is the author of Shepherd’s Pie: Family Business, Recession and Recovery – The Real Story, published by Mercier Press, €16.99 in bookshops nationwide. The book was sparked by an address he made to politicians and Irish company chiefs at a Chamber of Commerce conference in 2012 on how bust businesses can lift themselves out of the mire and recover. The ‘Shepherd’s Pie’ moment refers to the point at which Mordaunt could no longer put food on his family table and which prompted him to stand up the banks and use innovation to work his way out of the trouble his business was in. He is Managing Director of the Mordaunt Group, a family business based in Clonmel, Co Tipperary and an advocate for SMEs.
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Brilliant article. Fancy being the Minister for Finance????
Well said George, good to see a bit of fighting spirit – wish the govt had it!
Vat revenue will be down down down. Because there’s not going to be the spend spend spend such a backward initiative is hoping for. Another bunch of blind fools reportedly in charge of this nation. It goes on and on and on.
Nicely written piece, though I think other factors besides a few percentage points of VAT are more significant in people’s decision to spend on consumer goods. But your point on government double speak is spot on. BTW if this is from a presentation you made in 2012 You mean I missed a whole year of recession now that’s what I call a psychological impact.
It’s a real shame our leaders don’t read this or worse still that if they did they would not get the message. They look at there wages and decide the VAT increase will not have to much impact on them so it must be OK. They forget that a lot of people are barely surviving out there. I have a small business and its only hanging on by its finger nails. Besides the loss of money its very hard seeing your customers spirit broken by the beating they have been taking over the past 4 years. Almost every day your hearing stories of people keeling over from panic attacks or other forms of stress related problem. All the time the government its patting itself on the back about what a great job they are doing.
Couldn’t agree with you more. This is a discussion I’ve been having with friends for two years and all of us agree that we, the people, are being kicked while we are down. Lack of courage from our worthless poltical classes, I believe, is the root of this problem, the failure to govern for the people has broken us as a people. 2% reduction in VAT would be a positive step forward as would be scrapping a corbon tax on home heating fuels as would be reducing rather than increasing car tax as would mercilessly reigning in banks that do not pass on ECB rate cuts.
It may seem populist politics but these kind of measures act as a car jack, lifting the massive pressure on families and individuals in this country and offering some little bit of hope to them. The government HAVE to act for us the Irish people and not vested interests, banks and their own astonishingly greedy self interests. The pedigree of politician in this country has to change but if it does it will take years to do so, to chase the gombeenism out of Irish politics but that can be achieved. We took the gun out of Irish politics so why not the cute hoorism? But it’s a drive that the people must initiate and follw through rather that leave it to the political parties.
Governments must realise they are dealing with a very politically and socially inteeligent electorate, much more so than 15 to 20 years ago. They must help lift us as a nation out of this pit of despair by giving us whatever economic relief they can rather than paying unsecured bindholders not ever covered by the various guarantees on the banks. €750,000,000 would have opened the drapes a little and let the sun through..instead it was squandered, paid to people who probably thought they had lost it anyway.
Yes, cut the VAT by 2% rather than increasing it but don’t stop there…help us as a people off our knees rather than keeping your boot on our necks. This country is screaming out for heros at the moment..be it footballers, golfers, musicans or whatever..so why can’t it be a politician? The amazing thing is that like the VAT increase recently, the shortsightedness of this current political crop is staggering…the political leadership that we demand will result in its bearer being returned to office for a long number of years to come.
Forgive the spelling errors..joys of the ipad!
Hear hear! Great article but said after the horse has bolted. Our wonderful inspirational finance minister stated on primetime that retailers sell items at discounts of 30% so they can well afford a 2% VAT hike. Who voted in a school teacher to lead our economy… oh a massive majority did…. we made our bed…..I’d love to give him my business to run for 6 months to see how he’d get on.
I don’t think you would really love that. You would not have a business to come back to.
“Between 1 January 2001 and February 2002 Charlie McCreevy reduced VAT from 21 per cent to 20 per cent. That 1 per cent decrease in VAT increased revenue by almost half a billion euro. In contrast, Brian Lenihan increased VAT by 0.5 per cent in late 2008 forecasting that the move would generate an extra €227 million. However the Exchequer reported a 21 per cent or €2.8 billion decrease in revenue collected.”
I’m not disagreeing with the sentiment of the article, but the author should be ashamed to selectively cite figures in this way. VAT returns in 2001 went up. VAT returns in 2008 went down. You really can’t think of ANY other factors that might have accounted for those observations, other than changes to the VAT rate itself? Correlation is not causation.
I agree with your point. Other factors have influenced peoples spending, and the resultant VAT take by the State in the last 5 or so years. Apart from that one little thing with the column I think it really sums up the double-speak and backward thinking of our Political ‘elite’.
of course there were other factors at work But never underestimate the power of positive sentiment!
Just the point I was going to make. The figures are extremely selective as I doubt in the current climate a cut in VAT would bring in a billion euro extra, given all the doom and gloom re the euro etc. To make up the difference there would have to be additional spending cuts or tax increases.
The article overall is impressive though.
Euphoria because they drop 2% off VAT? Really?
Over all, a great article – and as proof in the pudding, all ANYONE has to do is look at Sweden right now.
They put their vat down and – guess what – are having growing economy once again!
(See: http://lnw.me/kD3QY0)
Do you think our fools in government are listening and/or l;earning? Like hell they are!
I’m living in Denmark. I moved here just before the so called Celtic Tiger years. I was also involved in politics in Ireland. At that time gombeen politics was still in full flood. The parish pump was prolific and well used. I saw first hand the way candidates were selected, the back door deals, the provincial mindset of our politicians. I rarely encountered a politician with a national perspective and never one with vision. I came to conclude that these characteristics weren’t necessary due to the system. Voting for single candidates shifted focus during national elections from national issues to local ones.
Nothing seemed more ridiculous to me than seeing a politician elected to legislate for the good of the nation holding monthly clinics to look into Paddy’s problems getting planning permission for a new cowshed. The practice encouraged larger scale clientilism at a national level leading to golden circles and corruption, mismanagement etc,.
The current crisis, I hope, will lead voters to move away from the parish pump and towards a more national view of politics. The decimation of Fianna Fáil in the last election was, for me at least, a sign of hope for the future. I hope also that in the next election the present government will also be held to account for any promises they have broken. I look forward to the day when it can be said that the Irish people have zero tolerance for broken political promises and politicians have to think very carefully before making promises to their voters. I look forward to the day when the promises of political parties form a covenant between them and the people that will not be broken.
A vat reduction of say 2% would not reduce prices much but would go along way in giving people and that our government does care about its people.The evidence to date shows the opposite.I went Enniskillen yesterday with my father.He is a pensioner and cannot afford the price of his medication in the south.The price in the republic for 3 items 50.48 euro.Price in the north 27.40 euro.The chemist accepted euro and this was the price after conversion.Also the items were the same branded as tge south.The carparks of Tesco,Iceland and Asda had as many southern cars as locals.This will only increase after January.If the minister thinks he will get an extra 670 million from vat i’m to say he’s nuts and should sack whom ever suggested raising vat by 2% in one go.Before someone blames FF or the Troika the agreement between FF and the Troika was a raise of 2% over 2 years.
Sorry to say government won’t listen.Even the lowest pay for a TD is i believe 92,000 euro plus abscene expenses.Until they experience the pain on a personnel level that the ordinary man,woman and child experiences everyday they will continue to attack (and that is what it is an attack) the citizens to pay gambling debts of private investors.I fear the population will hit a tipping point and God help the so called elite if that happens.Even the most docile of people can be pushed only so far.
He has come from the future. Someone listen to him.
We are far better having career politicians and sheltered public servants running the show. It’s obvious they can make objective, informed decisions for the greater good of the community based on their life experiences! (hope the sarcasmometer didn’t blow up).
In truth it’s not just our politicians that need to reform and think outside the box, the voters , the people of Ireland have to collectively push it. Until then we will just get vested interest groups catered for on the majority’s backs!
The Vat increase is a IMF directed measure. Destroys local buisness and drives people to the big Multi-Nationals.
Sorry meant a 2% vat reduction while not reducing prices much would give the people hope.
It’s funny to see people acting all outraged about this VAT increase now. It was clearly spelled out pre-election, right next to the new 9% rate, so why weren’t we talking about it then? Fine Gael fed us a line about a decrease in VAT creating jobs etc., and we (the electorate and the media) swallowed it unquestioningly because the promised increase was way off in the future, a thing that it seems we never like to think about or plan for. We could have avoided this by not voting them into power, but they are just making good on their pre-election promises.
It must be one of the VERY few pre-election promises they are keeping.
So far they have done many u-turns on others.
For example:
Bondholders
•
“Is it Labour’s way or Frankfurt way” – Eamon Gilmore; “Fine Gael in
Government will force certain classes of bondholders to share in the cost of
recapitalising troubled financial institutions” – Manifesto.
•
In government, they refuse to impose losses on the €3.5 billion of unsecured,
unguaranteed senior bondholders at Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide
Building Society (INBS).
They are still refusing to burn them! Amazing!
Third Level Fees
•
“Labour is opposed to third-level fees by either the front or back doors” –
Gilmore.
•
Now Quinn refuses to rule out increased student fees in the future.
Student Services Charge.
NOW FEES HAVE GONE UP!
•
Quinn signed a USI election pledge to reverse the €500 increase in the
Student Services Charge in Budget 2011.
•
Refused to do so once in Government, and won’t rule out increases to it in the
future.
Recapitalisation
•
Varadkar said that not another “red cent” would be put into the banks.
•
The Central Bank announced in March 2011 that the banks would require
€24bn. €19bn of this will be met by the taxpayer by July 2011.
Bank Directors
•
Pledged to “re-structure boards and replace and directors who presided over
failed lending practices.”
•
BOI appointed 4 pre-2008 directors; AIB has 3 non-exec directors still in
place; Irish Life and Permanent still has one.
Force Banks to Cut their Interest Rates
•
The Programme for Government promised that banks in receipt of state
support would be forced to forego a 25 basis point increase on their variable
rate mortgage.
•
Despite cuts by the ECB to interest rates, NIB is pressing ahead with raising
rates, and other banks are refusing to lower theirs.
Sell the EBS
•
During the election Fine Gael pledged to sell EBS.
•
EBS has now been merged with AIB.
Medium Term Loans to Irish Banks
•
Michael Noonan “We need medium-term facilities from the ECB so that the
liquidity problems in the Irish banks are not addressed on a fortnightly basis
with a rollover of the liquidity funding every two weeks.”
•
It now appears this is not going to happen – The ECB rejected it.
The EU-IMF Deal
•
The EU/IMF deal was a “bad deal for Ireland.” ( Eamon Gilmore), “a disaster
and an obscenity” (Micheal Noonan)
•
After election: Eamon Gilmore said: “It was never going to be the case that
the renegotiation of the agreement was something that was going to be done
in one great big bang.”
Income Tax
•
FG 5 point plan: No new taxes including no income tax increases
•
Minister Noonan: “I am not going to rule out any tax initiative, or any tax
increase or any tax reduction.”
Universal Social Charge NOW INCREASED TO €132 A MONTH
•
The PfG states: “We will review the Universal Social Charge”.
•
No review now forthcoming; Noonan robustly defends the levy in the Dail
saying the “universal social charge is progressive.” He added: “It is hard to
argue that is regressive; that is one of the more progressive taxes one will
find.”
Budget 2011
•
FG & Lab voted against Budget 2011.
•
Now it seems they’re only too happy to take ownership of the budget and
boast about the adjustments that have been achieved to date.
More Pay Cuts to Public Servants
•
They opposed the public sector pension levy – “It is a crude and unfair
system.” (Brendan Howlin)
•
Now they won’t rule out more cuts to public service pay.
Jobs Budget
•
FG promised a Jobs Budget within 100 days.
•
The jobs budget then became a mere revenue neutral “jobs initiative”, with no
jobs target.
Getting People Back to Work
•
FG Election Slogan: Let’s Get Ireland Working
•
Latest Live Register figures show unemployment stagnant – the jobs initiative
failed, the New Era jobs didn’t materialise, and the Medium Term Fiscal
Statement acknowledges unemployment will rise next year.
New Era Jobs
•
Enda Kenny boasted that “New Era plan will create over 105,000 jobs.”
•
At its launch in Sept, there was no mention of jobs it would create, and no
mention of cost.
New Era Funding
•
The Programme for Government and the Fine Gael manifesto state that it
would funded through the sale of state assets.
•
However, the EU/IMF agreement clearly states -“It is important to make
effective use of our state assets and, where appropriate, dispose of them to
help reduce our government debt.”
State Assets
•
Programme for Government: “We will target up to €2 billion in sales of nonstrategic
state assets.”
•
It now looks like up to €5bn of assets, strategic or otherwise, will be sold.
Strategic Investment Bank
•
The Programme for Government states “we will establish a Strategic
Investment Bank”.
•
Kenny, September 2011: “A Strategic Investment Bank would be difficult to
implement in current market conditions.”
Upward Only Rent Reviews
•
The Programme for Govt states: “We will legislate to end upward only rent
reviews for existing leases.”
•
Each time the Justice Minister has been asked about it, he’s fudged the issue.
Protecting the Low Paid
•
Labour Manifesto pledged to reform JLCs in a way that protects the most
vulnerable workers.
•
Jobs Minister Richard Bruton is dragging his feet on introducing a reformed
JLC system, leaving workers vulnerable since July.
Competition & Consumer Protection
•
FG Manifesto: Promised a new “powerful consumer champion”, giving it
“additional powers – by constitutional change if necessary – to break up
public and private sector monopolies and cartels.”
•
No mention of this in Competition Bill 2011, and no commitment to
constitutional change.
Ban on Corporate Donations
•
The Programme for Government clearly states “we will introduce the
necessary legal and constitutional provisions to ban corporate donations to
political parties.”
•
The Bill allows corporate donations to continue and Enda Kenny has
confirmed that there will be no constitutional ban put to the people.
Severance Pay for Senior Civil Servants
•
There will be no more “golden handshakes” for public servants that have
failed to deliver.
•
Big payoffs for senior civil servants continue.
[B]Reducing the number of TDs [/B]
•
FG had previously promised to reduce the number of TDs by 20
•
The Electoral Act proposes a cut of as little as 6 TDs.
Constitution Day
•
Enda Kenny, April 2011: “We will set out a programme to allow for a series of
constitutional amendments to be decided on what we called “Constitution
day”, to be held within 12 months of the new Government being formed.”
•
Little mention of it since
The Seanad
•
Both parties pledged to abolish the Seanad.
•
There was no mention in the legislative agenda of legislation to scrap the
Seanad.
Child Benefit
•
During the election campaign Eamon Gilmore identified child benefit as a red
line issue. Labour’s “Every Little Hurts” advertising campaign lambasted Fine
Gael for their proposed cuts in the child benefit rates
•
Joan Burton has since refused to give an explicit commitment on child benefit
rates.
NOW BEING CUT
Social Welfare Rates
•
The Programme for Government clearly states “We will maintain social
welfare rates”
•
Joan Burton has continuously refused to give an explicit commitment on
headline rates.
National Educational Psychological Service
•
Ruairi Quinn promised to provide “€3m to reverse the cut in the National
Educational Psychological Service.”
•
He has made no mention of this commitment since then
Water Charges & Utility Charges
•
Labour previously said they would be opposed to the introduction of flat rate
water charges “A flat water charge is not something that we’re going to
introduce.”
•
The government has now admitted that two charges are on the way by 2013,
a flat rate household utility charge (by 2012) and water charges.
Household Charge
•
“We’re not in favour of a tax on the family home” – Gilmore
•
July 2011: Phil Hogan announced the introduction of a €100 flat rate
household charge which is to be applied to the 1.6 million households in the
country.
Irish Water
•
Fine Gael’s plans for the setting up of a new water company introducing water
charges featured heavily in its New Politics policy document published in
March 2010.
•
However, FG has now admitted that they have no plan for the setting up of
this company, no idea of the timeline involved and have also admitted that
there are significant legal and administrative changes involved in transferring
water services from local authorities to the new water company.
Stag Hunting
•
FG Manifesto p27: “Fine Gael will reverse the ban on stag hunting”; Junior
Minister Shane McEntee (Meath East) told the Seanad on 25th Oct that
legislation reversing the ban was forthcoming.
•
8th Nov – Kenny spokesperson: McEntee was “expressing an opinion” and
there was “no commitment” to reverse the ban.
Turf Cutting
•
Fine Gael Manifesto: “It is premature to cease the cutting of turf for domestic
purposes in 2011”; Roscommon TD Frank Feighan said he would “sign in his
own blood” the future of turf-cutting.
•
27th Sept: Deenihan signs regulations making turf cutting on Special Areas of
Conservation a criminal offence, and allows for the confiscation of turf cutting
machinery.
Climate Change
•
Programme for Government: “We will publish a Climate Change Bill.”
•
This was dropped by Phil Hogan in November 2011.
[B]Garda Numbers [/B]
•
Shatter said in December 2010 that a reduction in Garda numbers would
“obstruct the battle against crime”
•
“The job of this Government is to reduce public expenditure, not to increase it.
That is as applicable across the justice sector as it is in other sectors.”
[B]Triple Lock [/B]
•
FG manifesto: “We believe that the Triple Lock must be modified to allow
Ireland participate in peacekeeping missions. The failure of the UN Security
Council to pass a resolution should not prevent us from taking part in
overseas missions.”
•
Shatter: “As matters stand the triple lock remains part and parcel of Govt.
policy”.
Government Jet
•
FG Manifesto: “We will introduce a new code of practice for the use of the
government jet ensuring cost effective and transparent travel. To stamp out
any abuse, cheaper commercial alternatives must be taken when possible.”
Transport spokesperson Simon Coveney said last year: Jets were “being
abused” by Ministers.
•
Oct 2011: Jet had been used 24 times at a total cost to the taxpayer of almost
€14m, including a trip to Cork for the Taoiseach and a trip to Algeria for
Coveney.
Junior Ministers
•
FG pledged they would cut the number of junior Ministers to 12.
•
Once elected they appointed 15 Junior Ministers.
Quangos
•
Fine Gael pledged to abolish 145 quangos in their document Reinventing
Government.
•
By end Oct 2011, they had abolished 5, but had created 8.
Guillotining of Legislation
•
Enda Kenny, July 2010: “I do not accept the Government’s guillotining of Bills
in any shape or form.”
•
By November 2011 they had guillotined almost a dozen Bills.
Staff in Constituency Offices
•
FG pledged to reduce ministerial staff allocated to work on constituency
matters to two per Minister
•
In March 2011 it was announced that ministers will keep 4 staff each in their
constituency office.
Constituency Work
•
Enda Kenny promised to direct all Ministers to focus entirely on their new
portfolios in the first 100 days and completely avoid constituency work.
•
However, Kenny himself repeatedly broke this promise with dozens of
appointments in Mayo every week.
Ministers’ Advisors
•
Ministerial advisors will be subject to salary caps
•
Most Ministers’ advisors have breached the cap.
Cronyism
•
They promised an end to cronyism and transparency in board appointments.
•
FG & Labour members and donors have been appointed as Judges and to
the boards of Quangos.
Transparency in Appointments
•
FG and Lab Manifestos: They promised vetting of appointments to state
boards by the Oireachtas.
•
Party political appointments have been made, without any oversight or
transparency. In October 2011, they appointed the former head of AIB
Investment Management as head of the New Era quango, without revealing
her pay or conditions.
Freedom of Information
•
Programme for Government promised to legislate to restore the Freedom of
Information Act.
•
No commitment for when legislation will be published on this.
@United Ireland.. Brilliant but youre making a huge assumption. Thats is that these are normal Humans, that they think they same way as we do, share the same moral code and respect the country.
Ive yet to hear one of them answer a pointed question without spouting rubbish and completely avoiding the real answer.
^ Great point Oran. It’s the constant wail of the keeners (voters) that someone else should do something.
OTOH – I’m wondering if an Election Manifesto could be considered to be a legally binding contract? Could an irish citizen not go to the courts and ask for a decision to be made as to whether or not such a contract exists in law? It would have interesting implications.
Be grateful. In Italy VAT is also up to 23% but diesel and petrol are up an average of 13c since last Monday; expect to pay between 1.62 and 1.65 per litre.
Be grateful for what?
Being shafted? Nah….
have your say