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WINNING A US presidential election takes years, billions of dollars and relentless determination. It also requires crunching a lot of numbers.
The victor must get to the magic number of 270 electoral college votes – but just trying to anticipate the result is a complicated exercise in adding, subtracting and combining.
That’s because the US election – taking place on Tuesday – is not an exercise in direct democracy where a nationwide popular vote determines the result through a simple majority.
Candidates must instead win a majority of the electoral college votes assigned to the 50 states.
Those who win a state’s popular vote are apportioned the state’s electors, the number of which is roughly in line to the size of its population.
Except in Maine and Nebraska – which distribute electors through proportional systems — candidates earn electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis.
With a population of 38.8 million, California has 55 electoral votes, while Montana – population one million – has only three.
A total of 538 electoral votes are in play, corresponding to the total number of elected representatives in Congress (435 members of the House and 100 senators) plus three for the US capital Washington, DC.
Technically, it is those electors who elect the president and vice president in a formal rubber stamp vote on 19 December.
To win the keys to the White House, candidates need a simple majority of electoral votes – 270.
And if history is any indicator, the path is far clearer for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton than for her Republican rival Donald Trump.
That’s because 18 states – providing a total of 242 electoral votes – have consistently voted for Democrats since 1992.
Another 13 states have picked Republicans over the same period, but they weigh in with only 102 votes.
Six more states appear to be firmly in Trump’s camp despite their votes shifting in the past.
The outcome in the remaining dozen “swing states” is more uncertain, and that’s where Clinton and Trump are focusing almost all their campaigning.
The more electors a state has, the more crucial its role, led by Florida with 29 electoral votes, Pennsylvania with 20 and Ohio with 18 – places the candidates continually visit.
Potentially, candidates could also forge a path to 270 by winning enough small states such as Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire – or by winning a state that’s historically voted for the opposing camp.
The experts are taking all those factors into account as they explore multiple possible combinations – adding Ohio, subtracting Iowa, flipping a Democratic state here or a Republican one there.
Despite all the variations, many believe Florida – the mother of swing states – is the key to the election.
Without it, winning will be ‘very difficult’ for Trump, his campaign manager Kellyanne Conway has admitted.
Here’s a list of the major swing states, the number of electoral votes and the latest BBC poll of polls through 4 November in a four-way race – including the outsiders, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green candidate Jill Stein.
29 electoral votes
Trump has 46% support, Clinton 45%
20 electoral votes
Clinton at 47%, Trump at 43%
18 electoral votes
Trump at 46%, Clinton at 43%
16 electoral votes
Trump at 48%, Clinton at 42%
15 electoral votes
Clinton at 46%, Trump at 46%
13 electoral votes
Clinton at 47%, Trump at 42%
11 electoral votes
Trump at 47%, Clinton at 44%,
Nine electoral votes
Clinton at 43%, Trump at 41%
Six electoral votes
Trump at 42%, Clinton at 40%
Six electoral votes
Trump 46%, Clinton 44%
Four electoral votes
Clinton 44%, Trump 41%
Utah is also proving interesting despite having voted Republican since 1968. Forty-year-old independent Evan McMullin, a Mormon and former CIA officer who entered the race in August, is running close on Trump’s heels.
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move the dogs, blame is with the ‘owner’
@Cornelius Murphy: Here’s a report from a few months ago:
The neighbour who was attacked luckily was not injured:
“He said it lasted 20 – 30 seconds but he did not suffer physical injuries. However, he described it as a very traumatic event, adding that it was lucky no children were in the vicinity.”
Mr Hamdi wasn’t at home when his dogs escape his house:
“The court also heard, that went Mr Hamdi was away, they attended the scene and found the front door to his house open.”
Gardai arrived after the attack:
“The court heard that after complaints, Gardai found the door to Hamdy’s home was open, and no one came out for 20 minutes.”
Somehow the door to his house was left opened, or was opened, while Mr Hamdi was away.
“However, he did not see what happened and told Gardai that the dogs must have opened the front door to get out. Later, he claimed there had been a break-in at his home, which caused the German Shepherds to escape.”
“Hamdy said he reported it to Gardai when he noticed damage to his door and objects missing from his house”
1. He left his door open when he left and his dogs escaped
2. Somehow his dog opened the door and his dogs escaped
2. His house was burgled and his dogs escaped.
There is a long running neighbour dispute over the dogs, they previously escaped after a storm blow down a fence.
@Cornelius Murphy: It’s the only sure deterrent to other dogs. Capital punishment works.
Strange choice of terminology: dogs aren’t executed, and they certainly aren’t put on death row. If this is meant to be humorous, it’s not in the best taste.
@Brendan O’Brien: I… agree… with… Brendan. See? We can all get along – we don’t have to agree on EVERYTHING. The terminology used in this article is indeed very strange, and immature, that’s at best – it’s deliberately provocative at worst. I’m almost surprised they didn’t call the Judge the ‘Governor’, or mention the Electric Chair. WEIRD.
Dogs are amazing creatures who thrive on human interaction. As usual people are blaming the wrong end of the lead.
Most amazing breed in the right hands, like all dogs. Had to put my beloved GSD down after 10 years last month. Adopted a 7 month old GSD last week. Very loyal and protective breeds. I blame their owner here! Probably never did any proper obedience training and probably couldn’t handle two large dogs either..
Just shoot them. It could be a child next time.
@John Mulligan: We don’t shoot dogs in this country. They are euthanised in a humane manner.
@Michael Burke: A bullet can be humane. It is quick and painless.
@Honey Badger: Fake account.
They were caught easily as Gardai had several leads to follow
Hardly suitable living surroundings for two large German Shepherds.Other residents with children will certainly be anxious. If they attack children an apology won’t cut it.
Why postpone the correct decisions once a dog attacks they will do so again
German Shepherds are not aggressive by nature. They are made that way by the owners. I write this as mine is laid next to me with his head in my lap. The judge is wrong. These dogs could be retrained and rehomed.
@Andrew Harrington: A dog is like children # there only as good as the People around them. End
Put them down ffs end of
‘sentenced to death’, ‘execution’, ‘death row’. A bit dramatic?
just deport them to South Korea they’ll find a nice home there
Comments open on a court case?!
A chilli pepper lorean sauce called gochujang goes well with their meat.
@Coc Caled: Sick
Is this for real ? Put these beasts down…imagine the victim was a little child….
Hate those dogs. Oh but they are clever.
Yeh clever that they need muzzles
@louise ryan: why do you hate them????
Its time for a one way trip to the glue factory.
@Paul: Your barking up the wrong tree
Dogs are being treated quite ruff-ly
So we’re even bestowing the partner partner onto dogs now. When will this i dio cy every end?
There’s no such thing as an alsation.
have your say