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Live: Trump within reach of shock White House win. Minute-by-minute results and reaction

Join us for all the action.

WE HAD A long night, and here’s how it went.

As Donald Trump heads towards the White House, we’ll be covering the final hours over here.

Hello there, Rónán Duffy here. I don’t know about you lot but there’s nothing like an election night, be in Ireland or anyway. And tonight is probably about as big as it comes.

So whether we’re about to see the Clinton dynasty get a second president in the White House, or America’s most famous property tycoon take on the country’s most valuable real estate – it should be fun.

We’re being told that that the first exit polls are only minute away. We’ll have it all here.

In the past hour we were told that former president George W. Bush did not vote for Donald Trump. That’s now been confirmed by a spokesperson.

Freddy Ford says the most recent Republican president voted “none of the above for president and Republican down-ballot.” Ouch.

There have been many, many unprecedented things about this election. Just one small one tonight is that both Trump and Clinton are only blocks apart from each other in downtown Manhattan.

The Donald is holed up in Trump Tower at the moment. Nobody’s getting in by the looks of it.

We don’t have any numbers yet about how people voted, but CNN has carried out an exit poll and there are some interesting things to be found.

The last two months may have been hellish with three debates and endless coverage but it turns out that the last eight weeks didn’t make a difference to a lot of people. Nearly two-thirds of people say they made up their minds before September.

In terms of late breakers, about one in eight people made up their minds in the last week.

CNN / YouTube

There’s some disturbing news emerging from California. Four people have been injured in a shooting and a nearby polling station has been put on lockdown.

Details are sketchy as yet but the polling station was closed as a precaution along with a local school.

We’ve all been waiting for some actual results and we’ve got the first actual vote counts.

They’re in two states where Donald Trump is expected to win and there’s no surprise to see that he is.

There are fewer than o% of the votes counted in both Indiana and Kentucky but early results show that the Republican is running at 70% and 67% respectively.

If you’re on a phone or a tablet and want to watch the results coming in, a few of the major US networks are streaming on Youtube for the night. NBC for one:

NBC News / YouTube

You might have missed Trump’s campaign manager Kellyanne Conway on MSNBC earlier. It’s fair to say that she wasn’t exactly sounding confident.

You might think that being Trump’s campaign manager might be hard enough, but she seemed to be saying that she didn’t have much help from the Republican top brass.

We’re still waiting for some of the most vital states to stop voting, but we already have our first breakout star of the night. They’re calling it #TrumpCake, for obvious reasons.

Can’t see video? Click here

THEY’RE ON THE BOARD!

More polls have now closed and we now have our first projections. No surprises as Trump wins Kentucky and Indiana and Clinton takes Vermont.

This is what that means, your embryonic election night map after three states have been called.

PastedImage-63044 270towin 270towin

A CNN reporter at the Trump HQ in New York has spoken to one of Trump’s advisors.

What did have to say? Not great for Trump:

It will take a miracle for us to win.

Florida, Florida, Florida.

The sunshine state gets even more time in the sun every four years because it’s so big and so swing-ey.

As expected it’s running very close again with about half the votes in.

PastedImage-23683 CNN CNN

Sustenance is important for these long election nights. Here’s what they US newsrooms are eating.

For the record, my colleague Paul Hosford had Domino’s Pizza and I had Camile Thai.

Our colleague Paul Dollery of The42.ie is New York for this weekend’s Conor McGregor fight in Madison Square Garden.

He’s soaking up the electoral atmosphere in Times Square.

Can’t see video? Click here

Here she comes.

Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey and Massachusetts have all just been called for Hillary Clinton.

Even better news for her is how well she’s doing in Ohio. The state was a big target for Trump but indications are that Clinton is performing even better than Barack Obama did. The current president won the state twice.

If Trump doesn’t take it, it could be a fatal blow to his chances. On the plus side for him, he’s won Oklahoma.

Four years ago when Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama, much of the Republican soul-searching was about how the party needed to communicate better with Hispanic voters.

That was the plan, pre-Donald Trump.

The man seen as the man to do it was Marco Rubio, or ‘Little Marco’ as Trump came to refer to him as. Could he have made a difference?

The former candidate has just been reelected as a Senator for Florida.

Senate 2016 Florida Wilfredo Lee Wilfredo Lee

GOP 2016 Trump Echoes of Wallace AP / Press Association Images AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

Sweet home Alabama for Donald Trump, he’s just taken the Yellowhammer State. He’s also slowly building on a slight lead in Florida as the votes continue to be counted.

Karl Rove though, who knows a bit about tight elections in Florida, points out that Trump is losing in Hillsborough County, whose voters have opted for the eventual presidential winner in 19 out of the last 20 elections.

Screen Shot 2016-11-08 at 8.33.23 PM Fox News Fox News

Did the Access Hollywood tape have much of an effect on Trump? Yes, but perhaps not as much as you’d think.

The red, white and blue shining on the Empire State Building. Both candidates aren’t too far away.

It’d be nice to be able to say that some issues are above politics, like controlling access to deadly weapons, but as we know the issue is intensely political in the US.

But are politicians maybe out of step with ordinary Americans?

A Reuters/IPSOS poll suggests that Americans are increasingly in favour of gun control.

In our earlier liveblog we brought you news from Rosemary Hennigan, originally from Dublin, who was monitoring polling in West Philadelphia.

There was some tension at a polling station when Trump and Clinton poll watchers argued over whether Clinton people were too close to the polling station.

The latest update from Rosemary is that the Trump people filed a police complaint against the former police guys who showed up. There’s talk they assumed the Clinton people were black panthers

The Trump supporters had shown up at the polling station because they were hearing reports about some issues happening.

There was an altercation with the Trump and Clinton poll watchers over whether the Clinton people were too close to the polling place and intimidating poll watchers.

Pictures were reportedly taken by the Trump people of the Clinton people.

As Rosemary puts it “it’s been a fun day”.

Nothing, I repeat nothing, is particularly clear right now. But make what you will of the tone of this tweet from Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

About those markets.

Early confidence across trading floors of a Clinton win was wiped out as investors consider the prospect of a win for the real estate mogul.

Clinton is considered by many investors to be a safer bet than Trump, who is seen as a loose cannon with policies many fear could wreck the world’s top economy.

Here’s more details of what’s happening to the markets.

It is so, so tight right now. For the first time this year The New York Times is predicting that Donald Trump will win the presidency, but that is changing by the minute.

So much so that New York Times is reasonably consistently predicting Trump will win the electoral college vote with Clinton winning the popular vote.

That situation made George W. Bush president in 2000. Nothing is for certain right now though.

Nov-08-2016 21-58-58 (2) New York Times New York Times

WhatsApp Image 2016-11-09 at 02.10.38 Dave Dave

Both candidates are in Manhattan. So is Dave, he’s sent us on these pictures and says it feels tense on the streets of New York.

It’s tense here too to be honest.

WhatsApp Image 2016-11-09 at 02.10.36 Dave Dave

What we know right now:

  • AP has called the swing state of Ohio for Donald Trump.
  • Florida remains too close to call.
  • Donald Trump performing ahead of expectations in Michigan and Wisconsin.
  • States that have been decided have gone as predicted.
  • Current state of electoral college, as per CNN: Trump 167 – Clinton 109.

Canadian immigration is already feeling the strain.

Some interesting figures about where the votes have come from, according to Associated Press exit polls

The polls are showing that this election has produced the one of the largest gender gaps since 1972.

The gender gap for Clinton, the difference between the number of men who voted for her and the number of women who voted for her, is 13 percentage points.

Clinton’s support among women was roughly even with the support that women gave Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.

The bigger factor in this year’s wide gender gap: less-educated white men. They favoured Trump far more heavily than Mitt Romney in 2012 John McCain in 2008.

What’s also been key is that it appears Trump held on to roughly the same share of Hispanic voters as Romney had claimed four years ago.

Likewise, he was drawing about the same levels of support from black voters as Romney won.

The Republican was drawing about a quarter of Hispanic voters and about less than 1 in 10 black voters.

Some very, very worried faces at Clinton HQ right now.

PastedImage-84148 CBS News CBS News

270 270towin 270towin

This is how close Donald Trump is to becoming US President. A win in Wisconsin and it could be curtains for Hillary Clinton

Can’t see video? Click here

Trump supporter Rudy Giuliani is in no doubt which way this is going. The former New York Mayor says he believes Donald Trump will be a “truly great president”.

“It’s probably one of the greatest victories for the American people since Andrew Jackson,” Giuliani says.

Morning folks, Paul Hosford taking over from Ronan now.

And as I do, Iowa is declared for Trump, taking another state which was won by Barack Obama.

Not only is Trump ahead in the electoral college, he leads the popular vote by about 1.2 million votes.

Clinton will reel him in as California reports its votes, but even that may not be enough to give her a popular vote victory.

At the moment, even a popular vote victory could be only a moral win for Clinton.

Nevada, the Silver State, has voted to elected Hillary Clinton.

Had that state gone to Trump, the race would have been effectively over.

Right now, Trump leads in Pennsylvania by 2,000-odd votes.

With 20 electoral votes, Pennsylvania could put Trump into the White House.

While many are talking about leaving America, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson has some advice for those who may be disillusioned with the result.

Donald Trump promised to appoint a special prosecutor to pursue Clinton if elected. Will he make good on his word?

2016 Election Clinton David Goldman David Goldman

For some Clinton supporters, the outcome of tonight has been too much to bear.

2016 Election Trump John Locher John Locher

While across New York, Trump voters seem pretty pleased.

Trump now leads by 42,000 in Pennsylvania.

Barring a Chicago Cubs-esque turnaround, Hillary Clinton’s race is run.

However, David Duke – former Imperial Wizard of KKK – is delighted.

Fine Gael TD Noel Rock, who worked with Clinton, has now accepted that Trump will become the 45th President of the United States of America.

So now that we’re into the last few hours, we’ll be following everything over on a new liveblog here.

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85 Comments
    Install the app to use these features.
    Mute Larissa Nikolaus
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:24 PM

    It certainly is a good idea, but how do you enforce this law?

    208
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    Mute Hans Vos
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:26 PM

    @Larissa Nikolaus: fake accounts are easy to make I think.

    77
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:32 PM

    @Larissa Nikolaus: monitoring and enforcement would be impossible. Longer prison sentences would prevent or inhibit recidivism.

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    Mute Abbie Cranky
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:10 PM

    @Larissa Nikolaus: You’re right it would be difficult but we should at least try. Facial recognition exits… that’s a start.
    If caught with a fake account then an automatic double sentence. I don’t know. But we should at the very least try to put some protections in place.

    23
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:46 PM

    @Abbie Cranky: longer, much longer, prison sentences

    15
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    Mute Link
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:50 PM

    @Larissa Nikolaus: The same way as they do now banning certain offenders from using certain types of technology right now, surprise inspections and the like. It’s not infallible in any way, but it’s a start and mainly it gives power the court sytem to take action against any potential threats from re-offending.

    8
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    Mute I'm not wavy gravy
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    Jul 11th 2018, 5:01 PM

    @Larissa Nikolaus: Onerous punishments should act as a deterrent. You wouldn’t stop it completely but the number would surely decrease at the very least.

    7
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    Mute Sarah Bourke
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:25 PM

    Wonder how this could be enforceable?? How many of them are out using these apps, unbeknownst to those their talking with!!

    55
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    Mute Quentin Moriarty
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:47 PM

    @Sarah Bourke: Be better if he put energy into tagging for 3 years min .

    54
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    Mute Siobhán Ni Mhurchú
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:50 PM

    @Quentin Moriarty: that would make more sense

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    Mute wattsed
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:58 PM

    @Quentin Moriarty: Agree fully, but the days of enforcing the wishes of the majority of the public I’m afraid are gone. Snowflakes everywhere then the EU courts, the appeals, the human rights activists – the list goes on sadly.

    18
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    Mute Sarah Bourke
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:07 PM

    @Quentin Moriarty: 100% agree, although what’s the odds of that happening anytime soon!

    7
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:08 PM

    @wattsed: ahh the oul “snowflakes” reference and in the middle of a heatwave. You have a very original turn of phrase. Did you manage to make up the reference “snowflake” all on your own?

    18
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    Mute Sarah Bourke
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:11 PM

    @wattsed: give over with the ‘snowflake’ line. It’s old and sad you’ve got to revert back to it!

    16
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    Mute wattsed
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:42 PM

    @Paul Laing: No, my 6 year old daughter told me. She’s more streetwise. And it’s cloudy now btw. Draw the curtains back, pull up the blind. Go on, you’ll be fine.

    5
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    Mute wattsed
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:43 PM

    @Sarah Bourke: Careful Sarah. That’s ageism, not politically correct now.

    8
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    Mute Sarah Bourke
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:49 PM

    @wattsed: the idea that the word has been used in the past and the idea of using it is getting old is not ageism. You thought I was calling you old for using it, proves the point that ‘snowflakes’ do in fact have brains!

    10
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    Mute wattsed
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    Jul 11th 2018, 6:21 PM

    @Sarah Bourke: We all have a brain. Some more left/right developed than the other. I still like snowflakes in general.

    3
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    Mute Sarah Bourke
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    Jul 11th 2018, 9:47 PM

    @wattsed: you still got the idea of ageism wrong.

    4
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    Mute Dáithí
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:26 PM

    great idea but how would if be enforced , the app makers could improve safety by asking for a copy of passport or driving licence, but there only interested in money not safety.

    34
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    Mute bopter
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    Jul 11th 2018, 7:27 PM

    In other news: Leo Varadkar to go back to school to understand new fangled technology that has only been around for the past 20 or more years.

    8
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:30 PM

    Sex crimes have a very high rate of recidivism. Dating apps are just one method for sexual predators to use. Longer custodial sentences are the only effective protection.

    47
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    Mute wattsed
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:55 PM

    @Paul Laing: Can you validate longer sentences have any degree of efficacy ?Current data from other countries suggests it works or not ?
    Pointless if there’s no improvement, think outside the box. Which countries have less instances of this and minimal repeats, and why ?

    8
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    Mute Dave Harris
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    Jul 11th 2018, 5:20 PM

    @wattsed: Unfortunately sex offenders do not tend to think of long term consequences of there actions, if they did hardly any would occur.

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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 10:55 PM

    @wattsed: sex offenders can’t commit attacks on women when in prison. Think about it.

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    Mute Fiona Fitzgerald
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    Jul 12th 2018, 10:19 PM

    @Paul Laing: There is that, but that wouldn’t stop them attacking other men.

    1
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    Mute Irish Bob
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:05 PM

    More Leo self promoting bull that he cannot do..
    He is a great man the talk but f all action ..
    He will spout anything for a time untill the next item and thats the last from him on the last item ..

    38
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    Mute Dave Harris
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    Jul 11th 2018, 5:22 PM

    @Irish Bob: Thats it in a nutshell Bob. All Leo is interested in is looking like he’s doing something – especially when it doesnt cost anything (to him anyway)

    15
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    Mute John Dunne (aka JD)
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:27 PM

    I agree with reasonable controlling the activities of sexual offenders and predators- but how is this to be patrolling and monitored?

    24
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:31 PM

    @John Dunne (aka JD): in prison, therefore involving much longer sentences.

    19
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    Mute Darren Farrell
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:34 PM

    He might as well try to stop birds flying with todays technology anything can happen to bypass that law it’s like saying to a drug addict I’m gonna stop pharmacies from selling anything that makes u high in this area and off he goes to the other area

    23
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    Mute David Cushen
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:59 PM

    To be honest – I don’t know what he needs to “consider” ….

    10
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    Mute The Bob
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:51 PM

    As many people mention this would be very hard to enforce. However with alot of post release conditions given to regular and sex offenders, if they are caught breaking the terms then they can be easily re-imprisoned for that breach. These do act as a deterrent to some degree.

    12
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:09 PM

    @The Bob: sex crimes often have a highly compulsive element. Deterrence is usually ineffective.

    9
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    Mute Mill Lane
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:23 PM

    @Paul Laing:
    Hence the need for chemical castration and a register accessable to the public.

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    Mute Daniel Donovan
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    Jul 11th 2018, 5:08 PM

    @Mill Lane: Or optional chemical castration. I’m sure a lot of sexual deviants would in fact avail of this measure. I don’t believe it should be forced.

    2
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    Mute Gaz Barclay Dunnes
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    Jul 11th 2018, 3:38 PM

    Head in bucket now

    10
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    Mute Daniel Donovan
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:31 PM

    The answer has to be longer sentencing. I don’t see how the state being able to patrol internet use is beneficial to the wider public. We need to look at the broader picture here. When the federal government in the US passed the Patriot Act in the wake of terrorist attacks most welcomed it without looking at the ramifications for their own personal freedoms and liberties and how such a law could be used for immoral acts.

    6
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:48 PM

    @Daniel Donovan: I agree. Much longer sentences are the only effective deterrent.

    11
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    Mute Alan Earls
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    Jul 11th 2018, 5:29 PM

    Whist good in theory it’s just another populist soundbite when real urgent things in society need fixing, prioritys for god sake

    7
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    Mute Michael Kavanagh
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    Jul 11th 2018, 5:50 PM

    I’d say compulsory ‘Health Warnings’ of the most lurid type affixed to dating site top pages might be more effective.
    It’s definitely an area where all is not what it seems!

    6
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    Mute David Knight
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:27 PM

    I’m probably naive here, but I would have thought that sex offenders register is something that Dating Apps would have access to and could block any members that were on it. Or do they just take the money and do nothing??

    10
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    Mute Markonline
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:25 PM

    Bit silly, why don’t they just ban them from dating/talking to people. Utterly unenforceable.

    11
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    Mute Paul Laing
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    Jul 11th 2018, 4:48 PM

    @Markonline: it can be enforced in prison and that argues for much lomnger prison sentences.

    7
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    Mute Brian harris
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    Jul 11th 2018, 6:43 PM

    Probably agree but any chance of sorting the lack of housing for irish people Leo.

    6
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    Mute Pauline Gallagher
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    Jul 13th 2018, 2:43 PM

    The only way this could be possible is to enforce all dating app agencies to take very specific and legitimate details of the person, like a government body would, and therefore it would be illegal to lie about it. Sounds very implausible, but when you think of the amount of bad articles that can actually anonymously set up fake accounts and use them to troll people and commit crimes against them, it actually should be made possible.

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    Mute David Clarke
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    Jul 12th 2018, 10:09 AM

    Another way of saying I’ll be doing nothing

    1
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