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LAST WEEK, WE heard from economist Ronan Lyons on the key trends that emerged from the property market in 2016. (TLDR: it wasn’t good.)
Today we’re looking to the coming year. We asked Lyons for his take on what we can expect in the housing market in 2017… and what this might mean for those of us trying to buy or rent a place to lay our heads.
Here are the key trends he predicts:
This year, we’ll start to see the effects of the changes introduced by the Government during the autumn – namely the relaxation of deposit rules for mortgages and the first-time buyers grant. But Lyons isn’t optimistic about this.
“We will see a bit of an upswing in house prices as a result of the change,” he says. “This gives more ammunition to first-time buyers, and not in a good way.”
So what sort of scale is he predicting? “Maybe a 2017 increase of about 10 to 15 per cent in that first-time buyers bracket, in the Dublin area. Bearing in mind that Dublin has seen almost no increase in two years.”
But it’s not all bad news. Lyons expects more focused efforts from the Government to address the housing crisis in 2017. We now have a titled Minister for Housing for the first time in the history of the State, he notes, adding that the effect of this is already evident:
There’s a lot of activity now in the property department specifically on housing. There are new people being brought in, new expertise. So I’m a little bit more optimistic about the future.
Possible initiatives? The rollout of the rental strategy, and more effort to encourage local authorities to use the land under their control to serve the population. Oh, and also…
It’s one of the most common questions raised about the housing crisis: But what about all the homes that are lying empty?
And it’s not without foundation, according to Lyons at least. “If we could lower the vacancy rate by another two points, that’s another 40,000 homes into the system,” he says. “That’s about two or three years’ supply.”
Tweaks to the property tax, he says, could encourage owners of unused properties to move more quickly in putting them into use: “There could for example be a greater tax for owning a property and not using it. I’m not saying that’s coming down the tracks, but I think we’re moving in that direction.”
He also predicts measures “at some point next year” to help with renovations of existing houses.
If there’s somewhere that needs doing up, that costs a lot of money – so perhaps there is a fund that you can borrow from at low interest rates, to do it up. And the quid pro quo is that you are doing it up to rent it out.
While the housing crisis gathers pace, commercial property is booming. “There’s something like half a million square metres being built in Dublin, with another half a million ready to be built if there is demand,” Lyons says.
That’s great, it shows that the problems affecting the residential side are not affecting the commercial side. Which makes it even more of a puzzle in a way.
But – and did you see this coming? – there’s a catch. Every square metre of office space requires about three of residential. “So adding a million square metres of office space will need, roughly speaking, three million of residential – that’s about 30,000 homes.”
Back to square one.
This is a longer-term measure that has actually already been announced: Simon Coveney told the Dáil in November that an audit of construction costs was on the way. The results are due to arrive early in 2017 – and should tell us, says Lyons, why building homes costs more here than it does in other high-income countries.
He has an opinion on this: “I think it’s a lack of innovation and competition in the sector.” But also notes that it may simply be more expensive to import materials here.
There is also a note of caution: even it is possible to address the high cost of construction, Lyons believes it would take “two to three years” for this to filter through in the supply of new homes.
- With reporting by Edel Corrigan
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The Minister of Justice is a dinosaur in the stone age with suggestions like that, I think the Garda is a tuff job, however outright banning of photos and filming of them in there duties is about the most dictatorship thing I have heard from the Irish state. I honestly, can’t believe the man came out with this suggestion and is meant to be representing public interests? He needs to go, he is useless to be honest, little interest in the job, and clearly just saying things to try please people and sitting it out for his pension. The Garda and public should want a Minister for Justice who comes out with pro active suggestions and is engaging with the commissioner and public for change in the Garda and in particular the failing Justice system. What exactly has he done so far? Nothing at all.
@Dave.: After these comments they should be asking for his resignation. Clearly no regard for the impact of what he was suggesting.
@Shane Corry: “his” being Charlie Flanagan I’ll add.
Good man LEO ,you know what side your bread is buttered on ,clever boy ,poor old charlie ,its time he went out to grass .
This will make people take even more photos and videos now
@Peter: that’s like saying, if we build a Hospital people will start having accidents…
Leo has some sense at least..
@ObsidianShine: Leo fears the people when they stand up for themselves. We need much more of it.
Just come down hard on people attempting to dox the guards online.
@Pól Ó hAodha: Any bullying online shouldn’t be tolerated.
There is a group trying to link accountability to online bullying. The fact that what people say online may be closer to reality than any red C pole is what’s behind this, Journalism and RTE state radio have lost their place in affecting opinion.
@Dot Com: Your last comment is delusional.
@Danny Rafferty: That’s only your opinion, The facts back me up.
@Dot Com: Where is the evidence for your opinion about facts. Perhaps the delusional state you accused others of lies elsewhere.
Charlie hankering for Blueshirt era.
@marg fitzgerald: It was a smokescreen to cover up balaclava wearing garda. maybe if he hadn’t tried to hide his face and acted like a bully.
Correct decision. Will the thugs with the hoodies & scarf’s on their faces also be made to show their faces while protesting
@ciaran kehoe:
“Thugs an hoodies” you’re talking about the guards, right?
@ciaran kehoe: No because the incidence of intimidation of cops is a rarity compared to intimidation of citizens by cops for their political views. Also people protesting are not being paid by the state for doing a job and are more than entitled to wear whatever they want.
@sixmile: No actually the so called peaceful protestors.
@Kevin Cottor: Why the need to hide their faces if they are not breaking the law
@ciaran kehoe: Thugs don’t usually possess the “social conscience” required to give up their time, risk being branded as “thugs” by ignoramuses, and set themselves up as potential targets for “Garda Harassment,” do they?
Finally Leo says something I actually agree with.
No way …..I wonder how many senior civil servants and PR consulants missed lunch before they told Leo what to say.
The only time I ever heard the like of it was in Dubai where it was not permitted to take photos of the Emir’s palace or grounds.
When I read the story today about not taking photos of Gardai on duty it felt in that moment I was transported back to that regime.
What an absurd suggestion in the first place. Next they’ll be introducing the Stazí.
Good man leo
@Brendan Harney: common sense really, either poor old Charlie didn’t think it through, or it was just silly kite flying. That’ll go on his debit column.
Varadkar as usual tested the water and knew that there would be uproar.
Specialist units should not be photographed.
@JesusMoreBullshit: what if a member of a specialist unit is kicking the lard out of a pensioner and you’re the only witness and you have a camera? What would you do then?
@Joey Navinski: eh – maybe intervene!!! What good would recording an assault be? I’d prefer if someone would try to help me rather than record me being assaulted…. & if they couldn’t help then maybe they could use their phone to call for help
@Angela Lavin: But if you intervene then you are arrested for disrupting the course of justice.
Citizens have every right to create their own chain of evidence when dealing with the police. Although many gardai are good people doing a good and important job, there are some that misuse the power they have and do not follow the rules they are supposed to uphold. Technology goes some way towards being able to hold those gardai accountable.
Fair play so, time now for the Garda to have personal cameras so they can record the abuse they encounter and which should be admissible evidence if needed.
Good on you Leo
Charlie Flanagan should be put put to grass for making such a ridiculous suggestion and throw out Alan Kelly also for agreeing with him.
Gardai need to be held accountable and if it’s necessary to video or photograph them – then so be it. They can console themselves with all their allowances and perks.
@Barry Foster: only job on the world that gets paid and perks? Thought it was a common aspect of employment
have your say