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An iceberg the size of Mayo is about to break off Antarctica - and could start a chain reaction

Kildare scientist Dr Martin O’Leary told TheJournal.ie that it could lead to a rise of 10cm in sea levels worldwide.

A KILDARE SCIENTIST studying the Antarctic says a huge crack in an ice shelf is about to create an iceberg the size of Mayo.

Midas pic The current location of the rift on Larsen C, as of January 2017. Project Midas UK Project Midas UK

Earlier this week, Dr Martin O’Leary and his team at the UK’s Project Midas received data showing a deepening and widening of a large fissure in the Larsen C ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula.

The ice shelf is the most northerly outlying feature of the Antarctic ice sheet, which has seen record low levels of sea ice this winter.

An ice shelf is a floating sheet of ice permanently attached to a land mass – in this case the continent of Antarctica.

Over the past five decades, temperatures there have risen 2.5 degrees Celsius, weakening massive glaciers and leading to the formation of thousands of meltwater lakes.

O’Leary, a Cambridge graduate based at at the University of Swansea, says a huge crack in the Larsen C ice shelf will soon create a 5,000-square-kilometre iceberg.

When that happens, an entire ice shelf roughly the size of Ireland could also collapse into the ocean, raising sea levels by 10 centimetres worldwide.

Nasa Ice Shelf The rift in the Larsen C ice shelf is seen in shadow. Nasa Nasa

Rare

“There is a very rare event, the last time something like this happened was in 1986 – a large iceberg broke off,” O’Leary told TheJournal.ie.

It’s now stretching across a big area, so it looks like there is going to be a very large breakoff.
Now, this is ice, so there are cracks, and we’ve been tracking a particularly big one of these cracks since about 2010.

O’Leary said he would be “very surprised” if the massive iceberg doesn’t float away in the next few months.

“The iceberg is going to be breaking off although it’s very hard to predict exactly when these things will happen,” he said.

Last year (2016) is expected to be confirmed to be the warmest year on record globally.

And the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming places on Earth.

Larsen C The rift on Larsen C. Project Midas, UK Project Midas, UK

Propagating

The crack has grown progressively larger, starting in 2014, lengthening last summer – and progressing in the second half of December, when it grow by a further 18km in the space of two weeks.

A mega-iceberg twice the size of Wicklow is now connected to the mainland of Antarctica by just 20km of solid ice.

“We saw the satellite data on 2 January, just this week – which was brilliant timing,” O’Leary said.

He nevertheless cautioned about linking the imminent super-iceberg directly with global warming.

“In terms of cause, these cracks open up and then they start to fill with snow, and icy rubble and so on, and the pressure of that drives the icebergs out,” the 33-year-old, from Ardclough, in Co Kildare, added.

But when this breaks off, it means the ice shelf is going to be in a less stable position than it was beforehand. And then other processes, like glacier melts, can have an effect.
It’s possible that the entire Larsen C shelf could then collapse.

The front of any ice shelf acts as an arch across the front of the bay, holding all the ice in place, O’Leary explained.

In 2002, the nearby Larsen B ice shelf fell apart over the course of a couple of days after a similar iceberg broke away, breaking the arch which holds the ice shelf across the bay in the process.

The Larsen A ice shelf had previously collapsed in 1995.

Nasa Larsen An aerial image of the crack in the ice shelf. Nasa Nasa

Sea levels

“It’s possible that melting ice when the Mayo-sized iceberg leaves might break that arch – and the entire ice shelf could collapse,” O’Leary said.

It’s 60,000 square kilometres, so that’s getting on to the size of the Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland covers 70,000 square kilometres.

“If the Larsen C ice shelf collapses, all the glaciers that are being held at bay by the ice shelf will flow faster into the sea, and sea levels will rise by around 10cm. It’s a lot in one go,” O’Leary said.

Global warming

“From our point of view, it’s an exciting thing, it’s rare to see one of these things happen, but obviously there are concerns too with ongoing melt in the area.

“We’re seeing large amounts of melt in the Antarctic particularly towards the back of the ice shelf. That’s actually the main focus of our project.

We’ve been looking at melt ponds forming in the back of the area, and it looks like there’s been melts going on there that we didn’t know about.

“Temperatures in Antarctica are certainly a lot higher than they used to be, particularly the Antarctic Peninsula.”

Read: It’s official: The so-called hiatus in global warming is a myth

Read: Record temperatures as the North Pole gets a heatwave for Christmas

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56 Comments
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    Mute Trevor Weafer
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:40 PM

    They’re just seething with jealousy because we are such a small country in the grand scheme of things and we have tech giants head offices popping up like they are going out of fashion. Screw you Brussels and the horse you rode in on!!!

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    Mute TheJeff
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:52 PM

    Without the EU & access to a market of 560m + people, Google, Apple, HP, Intel etc would not be in Ireland… unless Ireland is a Tax haven ? So before getting emotional think !..

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    Mute Whelo1509
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:55 PM

    Think you’re forgetting the handouts we’ve received since 1973. Not surprised that we may have been flouting the rules on tax and having sweatheart deals with major corporations. Problem is, we’re still broke and have high unemployment. What does that say about how we are governed – we may have been screwing everyone else in Europe but are still in tatters?

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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:03 PM

    Whelo, Europe would have been screwed regardless, the multinats would just set up shop wherever the corp. tax burden is lightest, regardless of whether or not it’s outside the EU.

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    Mute Norman Hunter
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:16 PM

    Whelo the fishery rights surrendered to the EU exceed the value of grants we have received since joining.So referring to “handouts” is slightly disingenuous.

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    Mute Deep Beneath You
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:36 PM

    That’s not true. Language and temperate were big factors also.

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    Mute TheJeff
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:48 PM

    Would like to hear why so far I got 17 thumbs down ? do you actual think Google etc cares about Ireland or Irish workers ? so much that they would set up here without Ireland been in the EU ? if it was not for the opportunity to reach 560m Europeans. The fact is only 20-30% of the permanent work force is Irish and the rest imported (living in rented accommodation in city centre a lot of which is funded for by Google, how long before we see a Google bus ?) The great majority of staff are short term temporary contracts offered for 11- or 23-month periods employed indirectly via CPL or Manapower. Google does nothing of long term value in Dublin its only administration & sales “booking” (the tax bit) for salemen/woman in UK, Germany etc.
    These firms are screwing over the great majority of its workers & the Irish government & your kids & even the go too blame guys the EU via not paying Taxes “Anywhere” thanks to Ireland having some “unique” tax write off’s for MNC sector which if you tried as a small business would see you end up in the Joy. Someone please let me know where’s the value to Ireland in the long run of having the best minds in Ireland of my generation thinking about how to make people click ads more efficiently ? while not generating any return for the Irish taxpayer & citizen.

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    Mute Master Kaye
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:48 PM

    Seething with jealousy, are you 6?

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    Mute Whelo1509
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:51 PM

    So we surrendered them by choice….silly us then. Doesn’t neutralise the fact that we were the ‘poor oul Irish’ for decades and milked it; now that it’s pay-back time, we’re not into that. Typically selfish of us.

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    Mute Norman Hunter
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:57 PM

    Whelo do you not understand that fishery rights also have a value which exceeds the sums we received and that if not at the moment but very soon we will be nett contributors to the EU.

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    Mute Bobby
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:08 PM
    23
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    Mute Stephen Glynn
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:44 PM

    Bobby, That is a fascinating read.

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    Mute Padriag O'Traged
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    Jun 11th 2014, 7:17 PM

    Christ Norm, you back on the fishing thing again? Where are the figures to back this up?

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    Mute Eugene O'Leary
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    Jun 11th 2014, 10:43 PM

    That is true and the figures are available to prove it!

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    Mute Padriag O'Traged
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    Jun 12th 2014, 7:23 AM

    Is that based on sustainable fishing quotas, or the current levels? And where are these figures?

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    Mute Bob Christian
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    Jun 12th 2014, 10:15 AM

    but don’t you realise you are now owned and ruled by Brussels and knobhead Kenny will do as he’s told

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    Mute John Murphy
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:47 PM

    Rest assured – the government will stick to its guns on this one. It’s a pity it doesn’t defend it’s citizens or the Irish taxpayer with the same enthusiasm.

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    Mute Marc Quinn
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:48 PM

    Totally agree

    47
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    Mute Stephen Earle
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:02 PM

    All this and not one legitimate Apple shop in the republic

    146
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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:10 PM

    Stephen, it’s not just the corporation tax side where the Irish are screwed by apple though ;)

    imac 27″ 3.4 ghz

    apple.com – $1,999 (= €1,476)
    apple.ie – €2,099

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    Mute David Evans
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:21 PM

    I can’t find a source, so if anyone can correct me, please do. When the whole Apple & Ireland tax issue came to light, I can recall hearing/reading something that indicated that if Ireland did have an official Apple retail store, it would upset whatever Apple have going on in Ireland.

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    Mute David Evans
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:24 PM

    You forgot tax.

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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:28 PM

    I presume people also pay sales tax in the states.

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    Mute John Horan
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:40 PM

    They pay tax, but the tax rate varies state by state, so prices are listed pre-tax in the US, while the tax is added on automatically in Ireland.

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    Mute Glass Half Full
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:55 PM

    …unless you buy in Delaware, ain’t no tax there!

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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 9:09 PM

    meh, they probably screw you some other way, like via property tax ;)

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    Mute Eugene O'Leary
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    Jun 11th 2014, 10:40 PM

    There’s an official Apple store at the O’Connell Street end of Grafton Street, just before the former site of the Molly Malone sculpture. I have been in it a few times and they offer free training courses.

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    Mute David Evans
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    Jun 11th 2014, 10:43 PM

    Compu-b? That’s a “Premium Reseller” it’s not what OP is referring to.

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    Mute Stephen Earle
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    Jun 12th 2014, 9:12 AM

    Its not a real apple shop, the on
    Y one on the island is in belfast. If you have been to a real apple shop you will know the difference. All others are just official retailers

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    Mute Marc Quinn
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:35 PM

    Time to wave bye bye to the EU!!!

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    Mute Frank
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:41 PM

    Pity the country didn’t forsee all this before the lisbon referendum.

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    Mute Marc Quinn
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:45 PM

    Very true Frank but we all know how the government painted the Lisbon treaty and the sheep fell for it hook line and all the all that crap

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    Mute Ian McG
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:02 PM

    @Frank/Marc: You’re forgetting the scaremongering the 2nd time around AND the fact that we were made vote again anyway like bold children because the first result wasn’t what was wanted.

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    Mute Conn Rogers
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:34 PM

    I said No again the second time… Was sort of hoping most other people would stick to their guns too. Hopefully we’re at least finally finished toeing the line for the corrupt and incompetent now

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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:47 PM

    Vote Yes for Jobs (Steve Jobs).

    26
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    Mute Sheik Yahbouti
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    Jun 11th 2014, 5:55 PM

    I also voted no. In the minority again.

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    Mute Bob Christian
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    Jun 12th 2014, 10:17 AM

    they did,but ploughed on regardless.

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    Mute John Joyce
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:48 PM

    Jealous of what??Ireland being used as a pillage ground by the likes of apple and others paying little tax into our economy and hiring people on shift work with 3 month contracts.12.5 percent is competitive enough but instead desperate dan ireland gives them even more tax breaks (around 2.2 is what they are effectively paying according to a study) so our country is being used for their benifit not ours..a weak country is what Ireland is..a bloody laughing stock

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    Mute IrishGravyTrain
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:03 PM

    The EU won’t be happy till they are selling Irish people as slaves to make 1 last bit of money out of us. They are stripping us of everything. Greedy corrupt b@st@rds

    45
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    Mute Bob Christian
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    Jun 12th 2014, 10:37 AM

    you ALL signed up for the EASY “EUSSR” money,did’nt you think there was a “price to be paid”,idiots.

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    Mute Kane Abel
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:21 PM

    If Apple aren’t too bothered by each of the grim and disturbing scandals in their hell-on-earth sweat shops then this cunning Irish scam won’t embarrass them for long….

    A culture no doubt developed by Steve Jobs who reportedly had no bother denying paternity of his own daughter leaving her without a red cent for years.

    38
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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:51 PM

    and yet he went out of his way to leave a legacy that made him out to be some sort of techno-Ghandi.

    19
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    Mute David Burke
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:01 PM

    I don’t get Irish people defending this. A low corporate tax rate is grand. Sweetheart deals are terrible and should not happen.

    Good job the EU commission.

    Of course FF don’t mind dodgy dealing and breaking laws.

    34
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    Mute Ian McG
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:05 PM

    @David: Maybe because people know just how dependent we are on these multinationals and the jobs they create – not just directly but indirectly as well.

    Sure they should be paying more tax, but any serious effort to force the issue will just have them pull up sticks (I’m sure the bigger players already have exit plans in place since 2007) and then what? More emigration? We all become farmers?

    That’s what happens when you’re a small peripheral nation on the edge of a superstate with no natural resources or industry to speak of.

    28
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    Mute David Burke
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:21 PM

    You have no idea what you are taking about. Please try and take some interest before spouting off.

    Nobody is asking Ireland Yo change its low corporate tax rate. Intel and coca cola and Pfizer all use Ireland for transfer pricing to diddle other EU countries and that’s grand. That’s not up for discussion.

    The issue is software MNCs in particular doing extremely aggressive tax avoidance program and paying almost no tax anywhere. This is just a baby step and it would change very little for 99.99% of MNCs in Ireland who aren’t Apple.

    Worth pointing out the Apple dummy Corp in Ireland for tax evasion employs nobody.

    The mac pro assembly is a different firm.

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    Mute redmarauder
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:03 PM

    I disagree with you there , they are going to investigate the corporate tax agreement between the Irish Government and Apple , if anything fishy is found you can bet that the European Commission is going to check the other corporate tax agreements as well , all these companies mentioned below , it would be just too big to ignore.

    IDA Ireland, the Irish Government agency responsible for attracting foreign direct investment, has reported the creation of 13,367 new jobs by client companies during 2013 alone. When job losses are taken into account that is a net increase in employment of 7,071, in other words the highest level of job creation in over a decade!
    Last year it was the third year in a row that jobs growth has exceeded previous record and all this in the midst of a huge credit crisis since 2008.

    It is like having the goose that is laying golden eggs and everybody wants to have it or know how you got it.

    A small selection of companies here in Ireland:
    Deutsche Bank, Twitter, EMC, eBay, Salesforce, Novartis, Vistakon, Facebook, Zurich, Symantec, De Puy, Yahoo, Sanofi , Indeed.com . Qualcomm, Airbnb, Tripadvisor, Regeneron, Huawei, FireEye, Grifols, Alexion and Acorn Direct Marketing and many many more.

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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:55 PM

    Their investigations won’t get anywhere though since I doubt anyone in our Gov. or public service will co-operate.

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    Mute David Burke
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    Jun 11th 2014, 5:42 PM

    Actually IDA employment hasn’t really changed all that much over the last 5 years.

    But you are missing the point. We rob other EU countries of tax revenue and that is totally fine. What is not cool is what Apple and Google are doing. There is a difference between Intel or IBM and Apple or Google. One is fair enough in the real world, the other is pretty outrageous and doesn’t even benefit Ireland all that much.

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    Mute redmarauder
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    Jun 11th 2014, 6:04 PM

    Well Apple and Google because that was in the news , I don’t believe the others have been properly investigated. It is afterall the government that makes these tax deals (if true) that means they are going have to check all of them , will be hell of a job. Probably some deal will have to be made for Ireland to save face and for those companies to reorganise.

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    Mute iBob101
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:54 PM

    Plan B: Abolish corporation tax. That incentivises companies to book profits in Ireland. But they have to be able to justify that to the tax authorities in other countries by having substance in Ireland. That means more Irish jobs and a greater proportion of better paying jobs in Ireland. All of which results in more Irish tax, not less.

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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:46 PM

    Makes no sense for the continental powers to pursue this. If all our FDI tech companies left in the morning, it would just result in more Irish immigrants into their own countries to compete with their own native workforce for jobs there. The Germans & French should bear that in mind. I doubt they want an influx of Irish at all.

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    Mute Martin Bishop
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:48 PM

    I’m sure the Australians can tell them what “fun” it is, that’ll put a stop to any investigation

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    Mute Mercurial Manchester
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    Jun 11th 2014, 2:49 PM

    lol, the poor French have enough trouble with Algerians as it is without Paddy joining the fray.

    34
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    Mute Matthew Donoghue
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:19 PM

    They should pay the 12% this 0.5% for the foreign companies is a load of shite. At 12% we will still be the lowest in europe.

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    Mute Andrea Rock Massey
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:27 PM

    I think there are a few countries in Europe with lower rates than ours but we’re certainly the lowest English speaking country.

    19
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    Mute Michael Carty
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:25 PM

    Time to give the European Commission the two fingers on this issue we are a sovereign nation and should be allowed set or own taxation policy

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    Mute Neal Ireland Hello
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:40 PM

    Wish the international community would put the same amount of effort into dealing with the sweat shops at the other side of the world where they have anti-suicide fences around the factories to keep the employee-turnover rate down while they make parts for our “smart” phones.

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    Mute Damian Moylan
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    Jun 11th 2014, 8:57 PM

    Eu is quite happy to allow chinese products unhindered into eu destroying manf jobs in eu. Usa/russia do better job of protecting their block. Italy/uk/nl lost lot of naval/ship/heavy engineering to skorea/china. Eu has no problem w slave chinese conditions while imposing vv expensive environmental/safety regs in eu. Eu leaders have destroyed economy in eu w this politic and since no accountability keep doing so. It suits a couple of giant german (a few french) companies expanding into china. Chima insists on joint venture companies andbuilt in china if u want to access their market. We should do same and put eu jobs first.

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    Mute Sheik Yahbouti
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:32 PM

    Why is it necessary for Mr. McGrath TD to “warn” us about anything? These are matters in the public domain and those of us who can read, or even just hear, can form our own assessment of the situation.

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    Mute Thors Big Hammer
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:57 PM

    Problem is multi nationals own this government. The government needs a set of brass and make sure they all paying proper tax.

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    Mute Deep Beneath You
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:53 PM

    People. These companies have 2 sets of accounting books. One for the revenue/In house and the cooked version they send back to the United states to evade tax. The answer Is simple. Enforce a higher corporate tax ( indefinitely until Ireland can escape its current predicament) any company that wants to move to another location then fine…. Send a photocopy of the cooked books back to the IRS in America and by the time they have kicked the door in of each director and have the CEO in handcuffs the other companies will play ball. Just like when Lehman collapsed, you need to set an “example” to what will happen if there isn’t co-operation. Don’t forget what America does to tax cheats who steal from the state. They will drag them like pigs through the dirt and lock them in a cage. If you took a Big company like Apple down the others would very quickly fall in line. Put the fear of God into the greedy pigs. The only thing a bully respects is a bigger bully. “we” technically have them by the balls.

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    Mute D
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    Jun 11th 2014, 5:08 PM

    Just pay your fair fair share of taxes. Every citizen here does. Why should I pay more to subsidize billionaire multi national company share holders?!…. Kenny et al support the multinationals as an excuse to con us over their job creation success propaganda.
    They are raiding our pension funds on the back of this lie.

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    Mute mjhint
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    Jun 11th 2014, 4:39 PM

    We are not going to be able to keep our low tax rate for these companies. The sooner we accept that the better we can make allowances for it. There’s a flow of resentment over it now thats gathering pace & more so from the US. We need a new plan quickly.

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    Mute Veronica
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    Jun 11th 2014, 5:56 PM

    While I realise sweetheart deals are not good think of the amount of people apple employs. Not just for apple along but contractors like facilities, cleaners, mailroom security etc… All these people would be out of a job in the morning of Apple pulled the plug on its operations… we are trying to gain employment in the country not loose it…

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    Mute seamus mcdermott
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:51 PM

    Maybe we need to frame the question in terms of what is fair, instead of “what can we get away with” or “what’ll that cost us?” or “What’s good for my party?”.
    Somehow what if fair and just gets lost in the shuffle of competing ideologies.

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    Mute redmarauder
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    Jun 11th 2014, 3:50 PM

    The Commissioner for Taxation and Customs Union is Algirdas Šemeta from Lithuania , he has minimal business experience in the private sector and his entire career to date has been concentrated in public office as a civil servant.

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    Mute John Hartigan
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    Jun 11th 2014, 5:42 PM

    Americans say good bye ireland

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    Mute Dermot O'Reilly
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    Jun 11th 2014, 7:04 PM

    Michael McGrath is in no position to criticise the Government!

    Fianna Fáil set up the low “Corporation Tax” regime in Ireland!

    Michael don’t forget you are a TD representing Fianna Fáil – the same party that destroyed Ireland Inc.

    We the taxpayers are now paying for your Parties policies and catastrophic mistakes of the past !

    Keep humble and keep apologising!

    We, the electorate know the truth!

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    Mute James Mcguinness
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    Jun 14th 2014, 11:39 PM

    At least we get warning that the apple jobs will be going, if they were on their game they would have an action plan in place to replace these jobs.

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