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Jeff Spicer

Opinion 'Brexit and a weak economy mean that Northern Ireland has little time to be stuck in neutral'

It’s game over for the current Executive just six months after the Assembly election, writes Dr David McCann.

TODAY HAS BEEN a tumultuous day in Northern Ireland politics.

The Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness has tendered his resignation which marks a first in this most recent period of devolution. Sinn Fein have typically been the most attached to the institutions of all the parties who have served within the Executive.

What happens next?

We have a week until the First and Deputy First Minister must be re-nominated by the Assembly and Sinn Fein had indicated that they will not be nominating anybody for the post. This means that it’s game over for the current Executive, just six months after the Assembly election.

Northern Ireland has been here before, by the way. During the Executive led by David Trimble and Seamus Mallon, there were two occasions where the institutions had to be suspended whilst a period of talks occurred to find a possibility of charting a way forward.

What is likely to happen at this stage is that intervention will occur from the Secretary of State and the Minister for Foreign Affairs to attempt to find a solution. This does not have the impact that it once would have had however.

Instability of Brexit Britain and Ireland’s Minority Government

The British Government are firmly engrossed in preparation for the activation of Article 50 by the end of March and the Irish Government is in a precarious minority position, with a possible election that could be triggered at any moment.

There is some space for talks as the Secretary of State does not have to call an immediate election. The provisions allow for a reasonable period to pass before one has to be called.

He could use this period as a time to gather some breathing space for the parties, to find a way forward in dealing with the impact of the RHI Scheme, and to attempt to resolve the differences between the DUP and Sinn Fein over Arlene Foster’s position.

An early election likely

Renewable Heat Initiative allegations File photo of First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness. Brian Lawless Brian Lawless

The other card he has to play is an early election. This is probably the most likely option for Northern Ireland. For those of you not following the political scene here, it is important to note that Northern Ireland has just completed a three-year cycle of elections and the EU referendum.

As an electorate we have gone to the polls for European, Local, Westminster, Assembly and the EU referendum since 2014.

Another election is unlikely to change much in terms of the makeup of the Assembly. Under new rules the size of the chamber will be reduced from 108 to 90 seats. Using the last election results, it is likely that this will favour the DUP and Sinn Fein, while punishing the smaller opposition parties.

As I write, there is a fair degree of uncertainty about what comes next. Northern Ireland has enjoyed relative stability over the past decade and it has now come to an end due to the failure of some leaders to compromise and take the long view about what needed to be done.

McGuinness’ legacy

At this point it is worthwhile saying something about Martin McGuinness. During his tenure as Deputy First Minister he has on many occasions showed real leadership in reaching out to Unionism and standing up to dissident republicans.

If this departure is to be permanent for him, it is worth reflecting on those moments that he did these important things and help write new pages of progress in our history.

Overall, Northern Ireland has little time to be stuck in neutral. We have Brexit to plan for and an economy that is not in great shape. If it is to be an election, one positive is that it will likely be our first on a substantive policy issue. Let’s hope that genuine reform of our system of government is at its heart too.

Dr David McCann is a researcher at the University of Ulster. 

Martin McGuinness resigns as Northern Ireland Deputy First Minister>

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49 Comments
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    Mute Clodagh Carroll
    Favourite Clodagh Carroll
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:15 AM

    Bye and thanks for the many laughs on here, Capt. Adebayo, you legend!!

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    Mute Lloyd Christmas
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:54 PM

    He must have gotten himself a girlfriend and she’s off barking orders

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    Mute Gaius Gracchus
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:22 AM

    Apparently Capt Adebayo Flynn has run into a bit of bother, some people aren’t happy with his decision http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO12Ba5PwMA

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    Mute Suzanne Ní Dhúil
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:41 AM

    Hilarious!!

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    Mute Jodi Steel
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    Oct 5th 2013, 1:44 PM

    That’s brilliant!

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    Mute Dreana O'Gorman
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    Oct 5th 2013, 2:45 PM

    Love it! :)

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    Mute Patricia Mc Cann
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    Oct 5th 2013, 3:32 PM

    Ha ha. He will be missed.

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    Mute Deirdre Mac Mahon
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:17 AM

    ADEBAAAAAAAAAYOOOOOOO
    *sniff*
    well the Capt finally got me to open that twitter account.
    long life and prosper, Capt

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    Mute Nelly
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:24 AM

    The capt had the ladies wrapped around his finger

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    Mute Niall H
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:47 AM

    He’s some character. Pity there arent more like him on here. Its all cranky b******s now :)

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    Mute Abi Dennis
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:11 PM

    I’m far more upset about Adebayo leaving than i should be…its worse than when Robbie left Take That!

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    Mute Abbi Cranky
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:32 AM

    Oh Captain, my captain?

    (Standing on chair, fist over heart, sigh)

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    Mute Donal O Neil
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    Oct 5th 2013, 2:19 PM

    Captain for president , let’s vote him in ….

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    Mute tmwtbc
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:41 AM

    Didn’t know the Captain had quit. Very funny guy and genuinely insightful.

    Good luck, Captain!

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    Mute Tigerisinthezoo
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:21 PM

    After all the love from the women Adebayo is likely to come back in a new twitter life as Commander Adebayo Flynn!

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    Mute Michelle Mc Loughney
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:05 PM

    Say it ain’t so captain. Say it ain’t so:( sobs.

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    Mute TheHassetthoff
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:15 PM

    So long Captain, your posts are always top quality and good craic! Call back soon!

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    Mute Little Jim
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:24 PM

    He’s not calling back, ever.
    He’s just too strong.
    *denial, tears, anger, acceptance, pride*

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    Mute Padraig Stapleton
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    Oct 5th 2013, 12:53 PM

    Farewell Adebayo, you legend! A great aul character…

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    Mute Marguerite Hoiby
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    Oct 5th 2013, 1:28 PM

    Why has he left?

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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Oct 5th 2013, 3:08 PM

    So long Capt and your legacy will remain.
    Lelsie, lets ratchet it up a gear.

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    Mute Dave!
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    Oct 5th 2013, 4:27 PM

    You did good captain, consider yourself promoted to commandant.

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    Mute Tommy Hornblower
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    Oct 5th 2013, 1:46 PM

    I guess it’s up to Leslie Alan Rock to shepard the flock now…

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    Mute Beep Beep
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    Oct 5th 2013, 1:54 PM

    Oh god not Lesley Alan Moron, nobody wants his input

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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Oct 5th 2013, 3:10 PM

    I disagree with you.
    I find Leslie’s posts quite good (and God knows I have had a few run in’s and don’t always agree)

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    Mute Leslie Alan Rock
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:29 PM

    Thank you michael. ..onwards and side wards I shall lead you

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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Oct 5th 2013, 11:37 PM

    Let’s Rock Leslie ;-). Take no prisoners.

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    Mute Dwickedchicken
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    Oct 5th 2013, 10:50 PM

    Personally I thought “capt” was an ass hole. :)

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    Mute Shane Hickey
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    Oct 11th 2013, 11:43 AM

    how do you quit an online forum? Surely it’s accessible from anywhere in the world (and on ISS)?

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