TODAY HAS BEEN a tumultuous day in Northern Ireland politics.

The Deputy First Minister, Martin McGuinness has tendered his resignation which marks a first in this most recent period of devolution. Sinn Fein have typically been the most attached to the institutions of all the parties who have served within the Executive.

What happens next?

We have a week until the First and Deputy First Minister must be re-nominated by the Assembly and Sinn Fein had indicated that they will not be nominating anybody for the post. This means that it’s game over for the current Executive, just six months after the Assembly election.

Northern Ireland has been here before, by the way. During the Executive led by David Trimble and Seamus Mallon, there were two occasions where the institutions had to be suspended whilst a period of talks occurred to find a possibility of charting a way forward.

What is likely to happen at this stage is that intervention will occur from the Secretary of State and the Minister for Foreign Affairs to attempt to find a solution. This does not have the impact that it once would have had however.

Instability of Brexit Britain and Ireland’s Minority Government

The British Government are firmly engrossed in preparation for the activation of Article 50 by the end of March and the Irish Government is in a precarious minority position, with a possible election that could be triggered at any moment.

There is some space for talks as the Secretary of State does not have to call an immediate election. The provisions allow for a reasonable period to pass before one has to be called.

He could use this period as a time to gather some breathing space for the parties, to find a way forward in dealing with the impact of the RHI Scheme, and to attempt to resolve the differences between the DUP and Sinn Fein over Arlene Foster’s position.

An early election likely

File photo of First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness. Brian Lawless Brian Lawless

The other card he has to play is an early election. This is probably the most likely option for Northern Ireland. For those of you not following the political scene here, it is important to note that Northern Ireland has just completed a three-year cycle of elections and the EU referendum.

As an electorate we have gone to the polls for European, Local, Westminster, Assembly and the EU referendum since 2014.

Another election is unlikely to change much in terms of the makeup of the Assembly. Under new rules the size of the chamber will be reduced from 108 to 90 seats. Using the last election results, it is likely that this will favour the DUP and Sinn Fein, while punishing the smaller opposition parties.

As I write, there is a fair degree of uncertainty about what comes next. Northern Ireland has enjoyed relative stability over the past decade and it has now come to an end due to the failure of some leaders to compromise and take the long view about what needed to be done.

McGuinness’ legacy

At this point it is worthwhile saying something about Martin McGuinness. During his tenure as Deputy First Minister he has on many occasions showed real leadership in reaching out to Unionism and standing up to dissident republicans.

If this departure is to be permanent for him, it is worth reflecting on those moments that he did these important things and help write new pages of progress in our history.

Overall, Northern Ireland has little time to be stuck in neutral. We have Brexit to plan for and an economy that is not in great shape. If it is to be an election, one positive is that it will likely be our first on a substantive policy issue. Let’s hope that genuine reform of our system of government is at its heart too.

Dr David McCann is a researcher at the University of Ulster. 

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