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THE GROWING TENSION between the US and North Korea has been widely reported by the media. There have been similar moments throughout the history of the Korean conflict. So, what would be different this time?
It is known that the US had contemplated using atomic bombs on North Korea during the Korean War (1950-1953). Faced by strong opposition from the European allies, who were worried about the expansion of war to Europe, the US shelved the plan and agreed to an armistice.
Denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula
At the end of the Cold War, North and South Korean high-level negotiations produced agreements for non-aggression and reconciliation, and the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula (1991-1992). During this time the US withdrew their tactical nuclear weapons from South Korea.
However, the US Clinton administration soon discovered North Korea was developing a nuclear weapon, and considered bombing the North Korean facility. But the risk of North Korean retaliation directed at South Korea, a US ally, was too great.
North Korea also could not risk a war with the US at a time when they had lost almost all their former communist allies. In 1994, the US and North Korea agreed that North Korea would give up their nuclear ambition in return for aid.
South Korea’s Sunshine policy
With the introduction of the South Korean government’s Sunshine policy, the Korean peace process began to bear fruit by the early 2000s.
Socio-cultural and economic interactions between North and South Koreans raised hopes for a “soft-landing” with the North Korean dictatorship transforming into a democracy and market economy, rather than a “hard-landing”, such as the total collapse of North Korea which would cause significant regional instability or a resumption of war.
However, the peace process has suffered from multiple crises, the continuous nuclear and missile testing by North Korea, in particular.
The Six Party Talks (2003-2009) among China, Japan, Russia, the US, and North and South Korea concerning the denuclearisation of North Korea were suspended. The South Korean government decided to stop most of the inter-Korean exchange and cooperation projects in 2010. Despite the assertion by the Kim Jong-Un regime that nuclear weapons will guarantee regime security, the possession of nuclear weapons is actually causing increased insecurity for the North Korean regime.
All options are on the table
The present US administration is saying that there is not enough time to prevent the development of North Korean inter-continental ballistic missiles, with nuclear warheads, capable of reaching the US mainland.
President Trump and his officials claim that the US has enough power to resolve the North Korean issue unilaterally and all options are on the table. The US has begun the installation of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) System in South Korea as well as sending an aircraft carrier-led strike group and a nuclear submarine.
However, the priority of Washington’s North Korea policy so far seems to be toughening sanctions by putting pressure on China, rather than unilateral military action.
In the midst of the tensions between the US and North Korea, there will be a South Korean presidential election on May 9. The leading candidate, Moon Jae-In, has inferred that he should be able to say “No” to a US initiative, if it is against the national interest of South Korea.
Moon has been advocating the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue and economic cooperation, which would not please a US administration trying to squeeze North Korea.
Trump puts less value on South Korean relations
Trump does not appear to place the same value on the US/South Korea alliance as his predecessors.
During his presidential campaign, he accused South Korea of being a security free-rider and said he would pull the US military out of the Korean peninsula unless South Korea pays the full cost of US troops in the country.
Would Trump be able to dismiss the security risk of South Korea when his administration considers all options on North Korea, particularly if the new South Korean government acts without the US approval? If then, the Korean peninsula may enter into an unprecedented danger.
Dr Dong-Jin Kim is an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Irish School of Ecumenics, Trinity College Dublin. His most recent publication is Building Relationships Across the Boundaries: The Peacebuilding Role of Civil Society in the Korean Peninsula (International Peacekeeping, April 2017).
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While the attempted procurement of weapons causes instability, actually having a strong nuclear deterant insures security. The international community already reinforced that they have no respect for countries without nuclear weapons. Ukraine being the prime recent example, after giving up the nukes in 2004, the commitments to provide security as laid out in the Budapest memorandum, were completely ignored by the US and UK when the country was invaded.
@Dave time:
“the commitments to provide security as laid out in the Budapest memorandum, were completely ignored by the US and UK when the country was invaded.”
What do you expect them to do? Roll into the Ukraine with American tanks to drive the Russians out of Crimea? I think we all know what the end result of that move would be.
There’s a big difference between a state like the Ukraine having nuclear weapons and a state like North Korea having nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian leadership isn’t deluded enough to think that they’re practically immortal and immune to the effects of their decisions.
It’s the Japanese who could well end up kicking off military action in the region.
Pull in China and go take out this nutter
@Stouts O Shea:
For all the headache he’s causing them, the Chinese don’t want him gone just yet. For China, an outwardly aggressive nation on their border that they can barely control is better than a Western ally that they have no control over.
They would have to lose total control over North Korea for them to become more trouble than they’re worth.
@Jason Culligan:Yes, and there is also the consideration that any removal of Kim Jong Un will most likely lead to a power vacuum, then a power struggle between vested interests, meanwhile their artificial economy would collapse (barely surviving now).
China has the problem that it has a traditional “friend” which is now more of an embarrassment and drain than anything else. It is acting however, with significant moves to enforce the coal sanctions and even the diplomatic rhetoric has been stepped up.
All of this without thinking about how South Korea would react.
You are right as unstable as he is, the Korean peninsula would be a a disaster zone if he was just taken out. China does not want any more instability than it already has in places like Xinjiang and of course Tibet
They international community will have to agree that should KJU be “removed”, North Korea can remain within China’s zone of influence, and that political reunification of Korea be put on hold for the foreseeable. All the while allowing economic and cultural ties to be slowly fostered.
What is the use of the Industrial millitary complex without a market for weapons and what use is buying all those weapons without using them… As those in th military would say?
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