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Here are the things that must happen before and after a united Ireland becomes a reality

The first report in the history of State to outline a road map for reunification throws up a number of ideas.

The report is being officially launched today, 2 August 2017.

THE PROSPECT OF a united Ireland was given front page prominence in the Financial Times this week.

The story said that the EU’s guidelines for Brexit will include a provision that would allow Northern Ireland automatically rejoin the EU should reunification with the Republic ever happen - a strategy that has now been backed by the EU 27 leaders.

Up until the Brexit vote on 23 June 2016, the concept of a united Ireland seemed a distant aspiration for many. However, since the vote, issues relating to the North, its border and the possibility of reunification have become mainstream discussions.

Rewind twenty years ago, and that certainly would not have been the case. But over the last year, a number of public figures have spoken about, not just the possibility, but the concrete steps that need to be taken to achieve a united Ireland.

In July 2016, Enda Kenny said “the EU needs to prepare for a united Ireland”, while Leo Varadkar (perhaps the next Taoiseach) said he believes he will see a united Ireland in his lifetime.

Both Sinn Fein and Fianna Fáil have produced documents on uniting the North and South, while a Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research poll found that nearly half of Irish people think it is time for a united Ireland.

The road map to reunification 

Next week, a new report which outlines in detail what Ireland needs to do to achieve a peaceful reunification of the island of Ireland will be discussed by the Oireachtas Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement.

The detailed report by the committee’s rapporteur, Senator Mark Daly, entitled ‘Brexit and the Future of Ireland: Uniting Ireland and Its People in Peace and Prosperity’ runs to over 1,200 pages and contains submissions and writings from key figures who have been involved in conflict resolution across the globe.

It details what needs to be done both before and after a united Ireland becomes a reality.

It may be hypothetical, but it paints a clear, evidence-based picture of what a united Ireland could look like and the issues that will need to be addressed.

For reunification to take place, there would first have to be a vote.

The Good Friday Agreement (GFA) provides for the people of the island of Ireland to exercise their right of self-determination by agreement between the people of North and South.

If such a vote passed, the process of Irish unification would begin.

Then what? Well, that’s the big question.

The new Oireachtas report – which is the first in the history of State to outline a road map for reunification – includes 18 recommendations. Here are some of the key ideas.

MARY ROBINSON Mary McAleese and Mary Robinson leaving a session of the New Ireland Forum in 1984. Eamonn Farrell / Photocall Ireland Eamonn Farrell / Photocall Ireland / Photocall Ireland

It recommends the establishment of a ‘New Ireland Forum Two’ to set a pathway to achieve the peaceful reunification of Ireland.

The first New Ireland Forum took place in 1984 to discuss the lasting peace and stability of Ireland through the democratic process.

It listed three possible structures for the future of Ireland: a unitary state, a federal/confederal state, and a joint British/Irish authority.

It’s aimed the new forum could begin in the same way as the original New Ireland Forum, whereby the new group would be the mechanism used to plan for a peaceful reunification.

Unionists Flags Protests Laura Hutton / Photocall Ireland Laura Hutton / Photocall Ireland / Photocall Ireland

A task-force to counter breakout of terrorism

Talk of reunification will not be welcomed by everyone and the report acknowledges that.

Michael Ortiz, who worked as a senior policy advisor on counter terrorism in President Obama’s administration, said to counter any breakout of terrorism an international task force with experts in counter terrorism should be established to devise and implement a plan ahead of any reunification.

The national-level task force would have national and local officials, law enforcement, civil society and other local leaders to examine potential threats, better understand the drivers of violent extremism and evaluate current resources.

“This would help everyone have a baseline understanding of what the challenge is and what needs to be done,” said Ortiz, adding:

Unfortunately, there is not an easy fix to violent extremism… If Ireland is able to launch a transparent, open and inclusive process with strong communications mechanisms, sufficient programmatic resources and creative proposals for strengthening community resilience, I believe this will go a long way in working to prevent terrorism before it starts.

shutterstock_375920137 Shutterstock / sevenMaps7 Shutterstock / sevenMaps7 / sevenMaps7

How much will it cost? 

The report says the Irish government needs to establish how much reunification will cost.

It calls for research to be carried out into the actual income and expenditure for Northern Ireland.

Dr Kurt Hubner of the University of British Columbia, who came before the Joint Committee, constructed economic models of scenarios of Irish unification, one of which showed a benefit of €36.5 billion in the first 8 years of unification.

Sinn Féin has also argued it would be beneficial to Ireland and has published a report to dispel what it calls the “unaffordability myth” that it might cost £24.1 billion – the figure some commentators claim is spent by Britain on the North.

It also states a report should be commissioned by the government on the impact of unification.

Legal and constitutional issues

Folding in 1.8 million people will have its problems.

The new report states the government needs to carry out an audit in relation to the legal and constitutional changes that would be needed both pre and post-unification.

What issues might emerge? Well, there is the question of citizenship and the significant problem surrounding the question of national identity which is at the core of the clash between the two versions of the constitutional future for Northern Ireland, according to High Court Justice Richard Humphreys whose work in ‘Countdown to Unity’ is relied on heavily in this report.

He highlights other constitutional issues that would have to be dealt with including, allowing for a devolved executive to continue to exist in Belfast, the question of voting rights in presidential elections or referenda which is confined constitutionally to citizens – so, the extending of voting rights to British citizens would need to be addressed.

Again, similar considerations would have to be given to extending the entitlement of non-citizens to run for the office of President or to be a member of Dáil Eireann.

“As with the reunification of Germany, it is clear that any change to the extent of the national boundary of Ireland will require changes in European Union law across a range of issues… it is likely that the technical exercise of adjusting European Union law to accommodate Irish reunification will be an extensive one and may take a considerable period of time,” said Humphreys.

What happens after the reunification of Ireland?

shutterstock_518102632 Shutterstock / Stopped_clock Shutterstock / Stopped_clock / Stopped_clock

The potential financial problems

Once reunification takes place, there are financial implications.

Northern Ireland’s fiscal deficit would need to be paid for – and the report finds that the Irish government should not have to pay it.

Northern Ireland’s net fiscal deficit in 2013-14 was £9.3 billion (€12 billion).

The Oireachtas report states that the current full Northern Ireland deficit should continue to be paid by HM Treasury for a period of 30 years after a vote for unification.

This could be a hard one to sell to the British.

International Court of Justice 

Planning is key for it to work, but issues are sure to emerge. In order to deal with these, the report recommends that Northern Ireland is included in the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve disputes arising from the Good Friday Agreement.

Whatever way you look at it – reunification of Ireland will not be easy. Similar to Brexit, Ireland’s reunification would be uncharted waters.

To close the report, an extract from TK Whittaker, who perhaps captured the complexities of the issue best in November 1968 in a note on North South Border Policy, said:

“We were, therefore, left with only one choice, a policy of seeking unity in Ireland between Irishmen. Of its nature this is a long-term policy, requiring patience, understanding and forbearance and resolute resistance to emotionalism and opportunism. It is not the less patriotic for that.

Read: EU President’s letter: Britain must settle ‘people, money and Ireland’ first>

Read: The potential for a united Ireland is on the front page of the Financial Times>

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175 Comments
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    Mute Tom Red
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:16 PM

    Every single person has a responsibility on the road,
    It makes no difference if you’re a pedestrian, cyclist, motor cyclist, or if you drive a Car ,van lorry or bus…
    Take your time ,Slow down and obey the rules of the road…

    174
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    Mute Piarais Mac An TSaoir
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:39 PM

    Unless you’re late for mass of course.

    40
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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:22 PM

    There is more speeding,more anti social behavior,more drink driving, more drivers using mobile phones etc …. Why !!!
    Because they know that the chances of being caught is almost nil.
    The revenue cameras are positioned in places that are guaranteed to raise funds and it’s not exactly a deterrent to stop someone speeding if they get a fine after the fact.
    When was the last time you have seen a checkpoint ?.
    I have seen more customs checkpoints than Garda ones.
    Don’t get me wrong,I am not having a go at the Garda on the street .
    I am having a go at the senior Garda that restrain and divert them.
    I have seen traffic corps cars at water meter protests.
    Even a Garda sitting in a car reading a paper will slow drivers down or a Garda car driving around with the blue lights on will get drivers to behave.
    A patrol car just passing through a pub car park will make drivers think twice.
    Garda presence is what we need.

    144
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    Mute Jack Bowden
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    Dec 26th 2014, 6:14 PM

    I think there’s too many Gardai everywhere. I’ve been breathalysed in the middle of the day. There are loads of speed cameras. There are loads of checkpoints for tax and insurance.

    Do you want police hassling you for NCT and breathalysing you every time you leave your house?

    22
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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Dec 26th 2014, 7:19 PM

    Yes Jack I do actually. If the vehicle hasn’t got a valid NCT or tax then it shouldn’t be on the road and if you have alcohol on then you shouldn’t be on the road either.
    If you drive within the limits then the only thing you need worry about is idiots that aren’t.

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    Mute Pharmyco
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    Dec 26th 2014, 8:34 PM

    Garda cars casually speeding on the motorway with no lights or sirens doesn’t give the best example to the rest of us.

    17
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    Mute Jack Bowden
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    Dec 26th 2014, 8:44 PM

    Well I don’t want a nanny state or police state.
    Police should be solving crimes and keeping the peace not badgering people over nanny state NCT regulations.

    20
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    Mute Shawn Rahoon
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    Dec 27th 2014, 12:17 AM

    Driving within the limit inappropriately causes more crashes than excessive speed.

    13
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    Mute Piarais Mac An TSaoir
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:48 PM

    You can drive past a ‘GoSafe’ van in a car with 4 bald tyres, no brakes, no insurance, off your face on vodka, speed and LSD with a boot full of explosives and as long as you are going under the speed limit….you’re safe?

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    Mute Seamus Kelly
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    Dec 26th 2014, 8:50 PM

    Great comment.

    23
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    Mute Stephen Wallis
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    Dec 26th 2014, 11:06 PM

    Safe driving is a complex thing, made up of many variable factors.

    The authorities should be measuring what’s important, not making important what they can measure.

    You can’t measure safe driving in kilometres per hour.

    17
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    Mute Gus Sheridan
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:26 PM

    No Frank, more education for drivers, Irish drivers are pretty rubbish compared to the rest of Europe, no lane discipline, ignorance of changing road conditions, we need more road policing!

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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:35 PM

    100% spot on Gus.

    32
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    Mute Mike Clinton
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:25 PM

    Red thumb all you want amateurs,I’m the one going home safe your the ones that will either be in a bodybag or put some innocent person into one.

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    Mute AJ McLaughlin
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    Dec 26th 2014, 6:11 PM

    Absolutely agree 100%
    Lane discipline is a joke here, most drivers will happily sit in the outside lane for their entire journey, regardless of traffic in the inside lanes. Would love to see lane-hoggers try the same thing on an autobahn, driving at 100km/h with vehicles behind closing in at 180+km/h on them. Or the fecker that speeds up when they’re been overtaken, lethal. As for the use of indicators on roundabouts, aghh. Drivers in dark with no headlights on or with sidelights and fog-lights. I wonder how many crashes on M50 are down to drivers blindly tailgating the vehicle in front but oblivious to what is happening on the road ahead and around them.

    41
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    Mute Sternn
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    Dec 26th 2014, 6:50 PM

    There are more road deaths now then before they started using the Go Safe Vans. They are a joke, they don’t make roads safe, they merely make 50,000 a day in the form of a new speed tax for a private company.

    40
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    Mute Matt Connolly
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:17 PM

    Even yesterday I was surprised at how a small few were driving…what’s your fricking hurry?

    37
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    Mute Steve Hopkins
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:04 PM

    Another road death this morning in Co Fermanagh, very sad time of the year to lose anyone, especially after the joy of yesterday, R.I.P

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    Mute Emachine
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:15 PM

    The number of crashes and therefore injuries/fatalities is a function of the volume of traffic on the roads. It’s no coincidence that the instances of collisions reduced during the downturn when traffic volume was falling. Now volumes are increasing, unfortunately increased collisions are inevitable. The job of those in charge is to identify the root cause and not implement knee jerk “solutions”

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    Mute Louis Smith
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    Dec 26th 2014, 7:07 PM

    +1 meaningless to talk about numbers without volume

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    Mute speak up
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:43 PM

    Maybe if the government focused more on having members of the force out there and visible people would be more careful. Instead they focus on incarceration of learners or whatever theyre called now, driving without a licenced person. They are more concerned with Doing people over road tax or nct than doing anything worthwhile. The roads in this country are a damn disgrace. I narrowly avoided an accident this year due to a road with zero visibilty. And when you call up the council to let them know, they don’t give a rat’s ass and pass the buck. This country loves to pass the buck on everything. Shambles

    25
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    Mute Emachine
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:24 PM

    Those learners without experienced supervision are part of the problem and should be dealt with in a serious way. If you are on a learners permit then you DONT KNOW HOW TO DRIVE YET despite what your ego tells you. If caught out on the road your car should be seized and you should receive a 6 month ban for driving “other than in accordance with the terms of your permit” we love making laws in ireland but when it comes to implementing them we fall far too short of the mark.

    32
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    Mute Peter R
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    Dec 27th 2014, 9:49 PM

    What age were you when you started driving constantly on your own?
    Oh ya one rule for you and another for others eh?

    2
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    Mute Eugene Walsh
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    Dec 26th 2014, 6:56 PM

    Always keep your dips on.
    No matter what the weather.
    The authorities have an appalling record on implementing road safety.
    I’m still driving over broken roads that were never repaired since the bad winters 4 or 5 yrs ago. That’s just unheard of throughout Europe

    24
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    Mute Bill Dee
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    Dec 26th 2014, 6:41 PM

    What’s the bets that the idiot Pascal Donohoe introduces penalty points for sneezing or picking yer nose while driving. It beggars belief that someone sooooo incompetent can find themselves a minister !!!

    So dumb he doesn’t realise we have enough – we had enough before his most recent pathetic effort – laws already – try enforcing them – where they need to be enforced. – no point having Gardaí doing speed checks on the M4, M7, M1, or M6 when all the accidents are happening on second and third class roads.

    23
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    Mute Djr
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:11 PM

    Great. Lets just put more speed cameras at places where accidents are less likely to happen and ignore upgrading improving our third world country roads where most accidents occur.

    22
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    Mute Retired Fireman
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    Dec 26th 2014, 8:29 PM

    Road safety needs to start with us having decent roads to start with and not the potholed rubbish that we are expected to negotiate safely, There is no enforcement by Gardai as the dogs on the road know that the traffic corps are nearly non existent, The “Go Safe ” vans are nothing more than cash converters as the so called accident “Blackspots” that they inhabit are mostly made up , An example is the lower Glanmire road in Cork , Inbound towards the city centre near Morans hotel which the Garda say is an accident blackspot for “fatal collisions” There has not been a fatality on that stretch of road in over 26 years but it is a handy spot to make money as the speed limit goes straight from 100 KM PH to 60 KM PH
    You can be put off the road here for killing someone while drunk driving and be handed back your licence at the end of your ban , Road safety is a joke in our corrupt little nation.

    18
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    Mute amos brearly
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:23 PM

    Why the hell can’t people just slow down? This need’nt be happening.

    18
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    Mute Piarais Mac An TSaoir
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:44 PM

    Speed is a factor in roughly 10% of accidents. Bad driving kills, poorly lit, badly maintained, badly designed roads kill, drink driving kills, not wearing a seatbelt kills, using a phone while driving kills, badly maintained cars kill, Speed does not.

    35
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    Mute Peter R
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    Dec 27th 2014, 9:47 PM

    Very stupid comment man. Very stupid

    1
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    Mute big willy
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:01 PM

    Come back Gaybo, all is forgiven

    16
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    Mute Frank
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    Dec 26th 2014, 4:03 PM

    More go safe camera vans I guess.

    14
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    Mute Pat Maher
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    Dec 26th 2014, 5:46 PM

    Yeah, look at all difference they’ve made so far.

    Driving without due care and attention, not leaving a sufficient gap and poor roads kill more people than people going a few mph over some arbitrary, often inappropriate limit but thats all that gets policed. That said excessive habitual speeders should also be put off the roads.

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    Mute Jonathan O'Keeffe
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    Dec 26th 2014, 10:49 PM

    Bad state of the roads probably part of the problem

    5
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    Mute Eamon Kelly
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    Dec 27th 2014, 12:34 AM

    Road collisions and subsequent injuries and deaths going up in numbers is probably more related to the steady increase in traffic over the last few years as the economy slowly improves. The normal distribution of: number of car miles/trips v’s collisions is probably in or about the same.

    Also the focus should not be all on speed, there are lots of other factors that can cause collisions.

    2
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