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Election Day: Here's what to watch for as voters decide on Corbyn v May

It’s election day in the UK.

IT’S OFTEN STATED that a week is a long time in politics. If that’s true then seven weeks is something approaching an eternity.

Back on 18 April UK Prime Minister Theresa May did what she said numerous times she wouldn’t do, she called a snap general election.

At the time May faced some criticism for going against her pledges to stay in government until 2020, but most commentators seemed to think calling the election was a smart if cynical move.

Some opinion polls had her Conservative party at 44% support, almost double that of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party which was languishing in the low 20s.

If these numbers came to pass in an election, the Tories would romp home with a much healthier parliamentary majority and May herself would have been given an electoral mandate less than a year after she replaced David Cameron.

That above scenario may still  happen, but what’s clear is that the UK’s political landscape has changed significantly before a vote has even been cast.

One poll this week had Labour just a single point behind the Conservatives with most of the polls having the lead down to single figures.

What it means is that while the bookies still expect the Conservatives to increase their majority, it’s not a sure thing and likely won’t be the thumping majority that had been previously predicted.

Ladbrokes favours May to see her present majority rise from 17 to 70 seats while William Hill suggests a more modest increase to between 40 and 50.

There are 650 seats up for grabs meaning 326 are needed for a majority in the House and Commons. The Conservatives currently have 330 to Labour’s 229.

So whether you’ve been watching it closely or are just planning to follow the results, here are some things to consider as the counts and exit polls start coming in from 10pm tonight.

When will we know who’s won?

The UK’s first-past-the-post voting system, where the candidate with the most votes in a given constituency takes the seat, means results come out a lot quicker than during Ireland’s PR-STV system.

To give you some indication of just how quick, Houghton and Sunderland South announced their results just 48 minutes after polls closed in 2015.

The exit polls from the UK media will give a strong indication even before that and should at least let us know how tight the result will be.

Polls close at 10pm so that’s the time most UK broadcasters will be starting their coverage and starting to dish out predictions.

From about midnight on the results will start coming thick and fast and the result should be starting to look clear.

It’s expected that Jeremy Corbyn’s constituency of Islington North will declare at about 2.30am and Theresa May’s in Maidenhead at about 4am.

Should we believe the polls?

General Election 2015 aftermath - May 8th Ed Miliband resigned as Labour leader the day after his party's unexpectedly poor showing in the 2015 election. Yui Mok / PA Images Yui Mok / PA Images / PA Images

While the Brexit vote might have caused many angry glances being cast towards UK pollsters, the 2015 election was also a bad one for those who try to predict such things.

The Tories’ overall majority was not being predicted ahead of the 2015 vote so in this election pollsters are being a bit more circumspect.

Most pollsters had the odd percentage point between the two main parties in 2015 but in the end there was a seven point gap.

It seems like this year, they are giving themselves more leeway.

YouGov caused shockwaves in the media last week when they published an analysis that predicted a number of different scenarios, one of which showed the Conservatives losing their majority.

The company insisted that particular scenario would only occur on a very bad night for the Tories.

The main problem for pollsters has been factoring in whether people who state a preference will actually end up voting.

When polling companies are compiling poll results, they take account of an individual’s likelihood to vote before delivering their estimate of overall voter intention.

Some statisticians have suggested that Labour’s support has been overestimated in recent weeks because many of its younger supporters will not end up voting despite stating an intention to do so.

This is why turnout is being seen as key for Corbyn and his party.

Where is the battle for voters being fought?

While the Conservatives undoubtedly wanted Brexit to be focus of the election, it hasn’t been the only issue in the last month or so of campaigning.

The manifestos of both major parties have both been given significant attention while the terror attacks in Manchester and London have also brought security to the forefront.

Electorally, where Brexit will have a big effect is in the falling away of the 2015 Ukip vote.

The UK Independence Party received almost 13% of the vote in 2015 but is now polling at closer to 5% following Brexit and the departure of Nigel Farage.
https://www.facebook.com/bbcnewsnight/videos/10154522376796200/

It means there’s a significant number of votes there to play for and how they’re distributed between Labour and the Conservatives will have a huge bearing on the final result.

In Scotland, the SNP almost clean sweep in 2015 (when they won 56 seats out of 59) will be difficult to repeat even if they’re still likely to dominate north of the border.

Labour’s previous dominance in Scotland has severely hampered the party’s ability to win a majority and an alliance with the SNP is seen as the party’s likeliest route back into Downing Street this time around or in the future.

That scenario has been labelled by the Conservatives as the ‘coalition of chaos’ and it remains to be seen whether voters will be swayed.

Read: Jeremy Corbyn says IRA bombing campaign was ‘completely wrong’ >

Read: The Liberal Democrats want legalised cannabis and another Brexit vote >

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24 Comments
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    Mute Ciaran Ó Fallúin
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    Nov 15th 2017, 2:42 PM

    Exercising his right to be all kinds of wrong.

    222
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    Mute Gillian Weir Scully
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    Nov 15th 2017, 9:35 PM

    @Cultural Marxist: Quite right too and how many female mass murderers?

    67
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    Mute Cultural Marxist
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    Nov 15th 2017, 9:40 PM

    @Gillian Weir Scully: Indeed.

    19
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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    Nov 15th 2017, 3:50 PM

    Another case of a mass shooter having a history of domestic violence. If only there was some kind of law to prevent those with convictions from having access to guns. It must be hard for Americans to figure out….

    198
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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    Nov 15th 2017, 3:53 PM

    @Deborah Behan: and why did he go to the school? He must have wanted to kill the kids inside! Absolutely nuts.

    104
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    Mute Diarmaid Mac Aonghusa
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    Nov 15th 2017, 3:56 PM

    @Deborah Behan: In a country with such easy access to weapons a law like that would be pointless. I think getting upset about shootings in the US is a waste of time. It’s over, and the gun lovers won and won well. With more guns than people a change in any of the laws is futile. Just let them enjoy their freedom.

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    Mute Thought for Food
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    Nov 15th 2017, 4:03 PM

    @Deborah Behan:

    Yes, if only felonies prohibited people from legally acquiring and owning firearms in the US.

    Oh wait, it’s already outlined in Chapter 18 of the USC that felons cannot own firearms.

    37
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    Mute Larissa Caroline Nikolaus
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    Nov 15th 2017, 4:54 PM

    @Thought for Food: Go back, stroke your guns, troll, no-one cares to listen to your bs excuses for these killers

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    Mute David On Tour
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    Nov 15th 2017, 9:41 PM

    @Thought for Food: You’re clearly an expert on US gun law. Tell me, exactly why would any member of the public need to own a firearm?

    I’m interested because a guy on twitter told me earlier he needed a gun to defend himself against bears. I’m hopeful you can come up with an even dafter excuse.

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    Mute GClare
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    Nov 16th 2017, 1:00 AM

    @Deborah Behan: he had to surrender his licenced guns after charges earlier in the year , the ones he used were illegal and registered to someone else

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    Mute Michael Heery
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    Nov 16th 2017, 2:51 AM

    @Diarmaid Mac Aonghusa: about 400 millions guns in private hands ,,,africa is safer.

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    Mute Thought for Food
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    Nov 16th 2017, 6:15 AM

    @David On Tour:

    How is defending themselves from a bear a daft excuse? Bear attacks on trails in the US are a relatively frequent occurrence.

    The needs for guns are varied. Target practice, hunting, self defence and just because someone wants one are all valid reasons.

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    Mute RónanMullsHisFaith#8
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    Nov 16th 2017, 7:08 AM

    @David On Tour: there is approx 8 million Americans that own on average anything between 8 to 142 guns..They need these guns to be able to shoot up tanks,fighter jets and incoming tomahawk missiles that have been fired from aircraft carriers..Any other silly question?

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    Mute Benson Hallahan
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    Nov 16th 2017, 8:35 AM

    @RónanMullsHisFaith#8: Don’t forget hurricanes!!

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    Mute Ciarán Masterson
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    Nov 15th 2017, 3:03 PM

    “Neal’s mother told The Associated Press her son, who was a marijuana grower, was in a long-running dispute with neighbours he believed were cooking methamphetamine.”

    Well, he was definitely breaking bad!

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    Mute Northern Craic
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    Nov 15th 2017, 11:42 PM

    @Ciarán Masterson: Nice neighbourhood.

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    Mute Polly Dolan
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    Nov 15th 2017, 2:53 PM

    Let’s be clear here he terrorised no one. Just an unhappy chap.

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    Mute Kerry Blake
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    Nov 15th 2017, 9:34 PM

    Well at least the guns involved didn’t kill anyone. Just another subject who had easy access to weapons….

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    Mute Thought for Food
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    Nov 16th 2017, 6:17 AM

    @Kerry Blake:

    He was legally barred from acquiring or holding firearms. How exactly is that “easy access”?

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    Mute Frank Hunt
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    Nov 16th 2017, 6:31 AM

    @Thought for Food: He was legally barred but yet got his hands on a semi automatic rifle and two hand guns, seems like easy access to me.

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    Mute RónanMullsHisFaith#8
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    Nov 16th 2017, 7:11 AM

    @Thought for Food: give up man.Your a$$has been handed to you on a plate sooo many times on this very subject..

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    Mute Thought for Food
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    Nov 16th 2017, 7:48 AM

    @Frank Hunt:

    So what would have prevented the same attack from happening here then? After all, the Bataclan attackers had easy access to automatic firearms even though legally they were forbidden from having them anywhere in the EU.

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    Mute John Owens
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    Nov 16th 2017, 3:59 PM

    @Thought for Food: have you lost your mind. All across the states there could be a mass shooting for every day of the week, but there hasn’t been more than a handful across all of Europe and Australia who are much stricter on gun ownership. You can ignore arguments if you like, but you can’t deny the endless reports coming out of one place where the laws are different… it’s not up for question at all. Americans in certain areas are complete idiots. It’s about time California and New York broke off from the madness in the middle. Most of the gang crime is in the major cities anyway where gun laws would be easier to police

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    Mute Bob Murphy
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    Nov 15th 2017, 9:37 PM

    It must be a muslim

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    Mute David Cagney
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    Nov 15th 2017, 10:38 PM

    The GOP, the NRA, Christian Republicanism, the organisations that just keep on giving. How else would we have thoughts and prayers?

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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    Nov 15th 2017, 10:31 PM

    The killer used the guns for the purpose for which they are designed and manufactured, that is to kill and injure people.

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    Mute Martin Sinnott
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    Nov 15th 2017, 9:57 PM

    Not news anymore! Only the friends and relatives will Romberg this in six months. Mass shootings in USA

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    Mute Northern Craic
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    Nov 15th 2017, 11:49 PM

    @Martin Sinnott: There’s a news organisations guideline in place that says mass shooting incidents in the States that result in fewer than 5 deaths are no longer deemed newsworthy anymore. Not sure why this one got through – likely the school/kids element.

    So you’re correct, this isn’t news anymore.

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    Mute Cormac Ó Braonáin
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    Nov 16th 2017, 12:37 AM

    a lovely country

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    Mute John Mulligan
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    Nov 16th 2017, 7:33 AM

    The home of the brave.

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