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Leon Farrell/Rollingnews.ie

'It could take 40 years to provide enough homes for people on Dublin's housing list'

Think tank Tasc says that the government’s plan to provide enough homes is simply “not working”.

A NEW REPORT on the housing crisis by independent think tank Tasc has predicted that the housing crisis is set to worsen in Ireland.

At the current rate of house building, it says, it could take over 40 years to provide permanent homes for the people currently on Dublin city’s housing waiting list.

The report urges a radical change in approach from the government, and says that its Rebuilding Ireland plan is only making the housing crisis worse.

This plan, unveiled almost a year ago, promised to deliver across five pillars that included addressing homelessness, accelerating social housing, building more homes, improving the rental sector and utilising existing housing.

For example, it said it would support the delivery of 47,000 units of social housing by the end of 2021, allocate €200 million to provide the infrastructure to deliver 15,000-20,000 new homes and provide enhanced supports for homeless families with children.

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, meanwhile, has warned that the construction sector could cause Ireland’s economy to overheat if it grows much more quickly than is currently anticipated.

“The risk of overheating in coming years is significant,” it said in its latest fiscal assessment report. “This is particularly so if a sharp supply response to possible penty-up demand in the housing market were to contribute to unsustainable construction-led growth.”

Echoing these statements, the OECD has also warned that another Irish housing bubble could be created due to a sharp rise in house prices and property-related lending.

“The sharp rise in prices and lending raises concerns that another bubble may be forming, and the authorities should stand ready to tighten prudential regulations if needed,” it said.

“Tsunami of homelessness”

In the Tasc paper, Dr Rory Hearne warns of a “potential tsunami of homelessness, from mortgage arrears and unaffordable rents in the private sector”.

Family homelessness, for example, is at its worst stage in the country’s recent history, with the vast majority of affected families located in Dublin.

A lack of affordable accommodation has led to skyrocketing rents across the city as demand far outstrips supply in the private rental market. This is coupled with a severe dearth of affordable or social housing, which has resulted in more families becoming homeless.

Hearne said that the number of homeless families in Dublin has increased by 289%, while almost 10% of all households face mortgage arrears or house repossession.

He draws comparisons between the price that homes were sold for in some areas of Dublin with the current crisis:

Six ‘trophy’ houses on one road in Dublin 4 were sold for between €3 and €4 million each in 2016. Meanwhile, 198,358 homes lie empty in Ireland. In Cork, there are 269 people homeless, and 21,287 vacant units and in Dublin, 3,247 people homeless and 35,293 vacant homes.

The paper says that the current government policy is “worsening economic and generational inequalities”.

Hearne says that the current level of building, particularly in the social housing sector, requires a radical re-think. He said:

While it was stated that 18,000 new social housing ‘solutions’ were provided in 2016, in fact there were just 650 actual new build social housing units. Only 210 of these were built by local authorities with just 40 in Dublin. This was far below the 2,200 projected new builds for 2016.

He predicts that less than 1,000 units will be built this year in Dublin city and says that, at this rate of building, “it could take over 40 years to provide a permanent home to those on the Dublin City Council housing waiting list”.

According to Dublin City Council figures from January, there were 18,946 people on the waiting list.

“Housing a right, not a commodity”

The government’s Rebuilding Ireland plan, Hearne said, is not improving the situation, but making it worse by allowing a number of the houses built to be provided for by the private rental sector.

He said it was a stark choice between putting a price on a home and looking at it for its economic value, or viewing a house as a social necessity and human right.

He said: “The choice is between supporting housing as a financialised commodity and wealth generating investment asset for the wealthy, and ensuring housing as a universal right for all.

The first option will enshrine unaffordable rental and house prices into the future and will guarantee associated poverty and financial stress for large sections of our population. The second approach can deliver and guarantee the human right to housing for all our citizens.

By placing housing as a right rather than an asset, only then will the tide turn in the housing crisis, according to Hearne.

He advocated the setting up of a new Irish Affordable Homes company and a number of measures that would see housing considered a right, rather than a privilege.

“Such policies would aim at improving security of tenure in the private rental sector for tenants,” Hearne said, “using the large amount of vacant and derelict land and buildings to provide homes to address the crisis, such as fast-tracking and increasing the vacant site tax, compulsory leasing orders on vacant property or a vacant property tax.”

Last week, Minister for Housing Simon Coveney hailed the latest progress report of the Rebuilding Ireland plan.

He said: “In terms of momentum, the report shows strong evidence that Rebuilding Ireland, even though just 10 months old, is delivering increased supply.

However, we cannot afford to be complacent: the housing challenge remains immense, households remain under extreme pressures, and demand still far outstrips supply.  We must continue to work together to meet this challenge head on by driving implementation with urgency and purpose.

In response to a request from TheJournal.ie, the Department of Housing said the “unprecedented increase” in the government’s social housing investment programme is “already ramping up social housing supply”.

“Last year, €935 million was spent providing some 19,000 social housing supports,” they said. “This year we will provide 21,000 social housing supports with expenditure of €1.3 billion”.

It added that a number of measures were in progress to develop an affordable renting model and to develop State-owned lands for mixed-tenure housing.

With reporting from Paul O’Donoghue

Read: Independent Alliance have ‘very constructive and very satisfactory’ meeting with Leo Varadkar

Read: Will a €226 million fund make housing more affordable?

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94 Comments
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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:38 PM

    No way Michael. Like you couldn’t see this coming. Ireland is an easy target tho keep that in mind.

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Jan 27th 2023, 1:34 AM

    @Paul Gorry: let’s not be shy about this situation. The government have failed here. Refugees living on the streets of Ireland as i type. FFFG should disengage immediately. If only! .A government not fit for purpose. Just the usual jack the lads tripe they spit out over and over again. And by the way Pascal stick yer posters where the sun don’t shine.

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    Mute Thomas Sheridan
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:35 PM

    We have a full generation of working people from 20 – 40 years old who are permanent hamsters in the property rental circus – and yet, people here are obsessed with providing accommodation for uncontrolled illegal immigration

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    Mute Gearóid MacEachaidh
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    Jan 27th 2023, 4:40 PM

    @Thomas Sheridan: it’s not “uncontrolled illegal immigration “. It is 100% legal to claim asylum and the authorities of that country are duty bound to process that claim. The numbers arriving are more than we can handle, due to how many Ukrainians we’ve taken in, but calling something” illegal immigration ” when it’s not is the kind of hateful lies that are being spouted by far right groups at protests recently.

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    Mute George Vladisavljevic
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:39 PM

    Seriously, if the government count manage to house their own homeless before the start of othe Ukrainian conflict and arrival of some 70,000 refugees as well as the normal number of refugees from other parts of the world, what was the expected result. No real or serious investment in housing for over a decade, and this is supposed to be a surprise. Muppets

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    Mute George Vladisavljevic
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:40 PM

    @George Vladisavljevic: …could not manage

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    Mute Stephen Kearon
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:42 PM

    @George Vladisavljevic: since the current Govt came into office there has been the largest every investment in housing – €4,000,000,000 per annum, not a cent of which is been used to provide temporary shelter for fellow human beings fleeing from war.

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:51 PM

    @Stephen Kearon: Stephen Ireland is closed. There is no where to put these unfortunate people. What are you not understanding?

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    Mute Paul Linehan
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    Jan 27th 2023, 7:16 AM

    @Stephen Kearon: There may well have been an allocation of €4 billion for last year and this year. But the actual spend on new builds in 2022 was €2.2 billion, leaving almost half of the allocated monies either spent on existing overpriced housing stock (which most required upgrades) or the money returned to the exchequer. Anyone can budget for the year ahead and allow for a contingency amount. But the gombeens in charge of the country’s finances are either over budgeting and not being able to achieve an end result. Or setting a budget without proper delivery terms and conditions that runs into almost 3 times the initial costings. You can’t defend the indefensible on this one Stephen.

    157
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    Mute Keth Warsaw
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:39 PM

    Anyone else starting to feel a tad unsafe (including forcing refugees into an equally unsafe situation (sleeping on streets….’sleeping-on-streets’ – this is protection? And riots) This and other situations (young people unable to afford mortgages – lives on hold, overcrowded A&E, Children not receiving mental care. And HOUSING. The list is endless) Is it the governments plan to confuse us in a malady of chaos – smoke and mirrors? Oh wait….we have a plan to make a plan. No, this is vanity and chaos…right here, right now. We are experiencing chaos. Quiet…creeping chaos wrapped in professional answers in the key of denial and spin.

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    Mute Jason Dawson
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    Jan 27th 2023, 5:49 AM

    @Keth Warsaw: exactly, the only thing I have seen these leaders excel at over the last twenty years is to put themselves on pedastals.
    Pedastals high enough to look down on us, high enough that they can’t hear us.

    386
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    Mute Baronvoncass
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:12 PM

    This is only the start, population growth refugee pressure and economic migration are only going one way. Question is what is our acceptable quota per year. In 2030 if we have 200000 a year refugees incoming because we are seen as an idealistic country which let’s face it that’s where we are placing ourselves. Are we going to plan for those numbers??? Quota , limitation of migration or plan for colossal numbers in the future which means radical transport, infrastructure, hospital increase.

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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:17 PM

    @Baronvoncass: Are we going to plan for these numbers? Absolutely not this government haven’t planned for the numbers in 2023 they are up shit creek without a paddle.

    516
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    Mute Will Roche
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:43 PM

    Loves a good holiday does Michael.

    415
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    Mute James Delaney
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:41 PM

    Fffg out

    488
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    Mute Paul Gorry
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:59 PM

    @James Delaney: and sleepy jesus eamonn james.

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    Mute Paul Mohan
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    Jan 27th 2023, 6:04 AM

    Isn’t that why we have a government to monitor and control the amount of asylum seekers are coming to our country we are only a small island look after the Irish homeless first

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    Mute The next small thing
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    Jan 27th 2023, 10:21 AM

    @Paul Mohan: To control the numbers coming in we would need to stop all flights, ferry’s etc as, under international law, all anyone needs to do is claim asylum once they get off the flight/ferry (even if they managed to have travel documents when they boarded but not when they land, must have blown out the planes windows) and then they are in the system and need to be processed.

    66
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    Mute Cathal O'sullivan
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:39 PM

    A few facts…….37 countries in Africa have ‘serious, or worse’ levels of hunger. Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Somalia are facing the worst food crisis seen in 40 years as per Dec 2022. Population of Ethiopia 120 million, Somalia 17 million, and Kenya 53 million.
    More than 20 million people in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are struggling to find enough to eat, and over 1 million have fled their homes, according to the United Nations as per Nov 2022. Some are predicting the same or worse famine than 1980s. Number affected by single famine in 1983-85 was 4 million.
    Perhaps a member of government, in the interests of transparency, will let everyone, Africans included, know how many famine refugees Ireland will take during the next famine?
    Presumably we’ll take at least !% (2% if we want to be best in class) of european ‘allocation’, in other words 50,000 individuals to Ireland, if Europe ‘accepts’ 5 milllion refugees(?). In addition to refugees of war and conflict currently estimated at 80,000 in 2023. you can understand why no politicians will discuss the issue in detail.

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    Mute Keth Warsaw
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    Jan 27th 2023, 12:04 AM

    @Cathal O’sullivan: Population control? Personally, I think it’s an abuse to bring a child into a world/situation where it cannot be accommodated 100 %. Whatever the hemisphere. Humans have a big problem with reality.

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    Mute Fifty Shades of Sé
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    Jan 27th 2023, 1:26 PM

    @Cathal O’sullivan: The population of Africa just keeps rising exponentially in spite of all the famines that plague the continent.
    The population was estimated to be around 100 million before it was colonised in the 1870s, it’s around 1.4 billion now and it’s estimated to reach 4 billion by the end of this century, approximately 5 times what the population of Europe is now.
    We’re struggling to accommodate the relatively small number of refugees we have now but the numbers are going to increase exponentially as war, famine and climate change push people northwards.
    Yet some idealists imagine we’ll somehow have the resources to deal with them all.

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    Mute Joanne Stokes
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    Jan 27th 2023, 8:44 AM

    What about our own homeless they count too!

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    Mute Keth Warsaw
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:55 PM

    It would seem those in Direct Provision should settle in for the long ..long…unending wait that will never come. It seems only fair that DP join the ever-growing queues that includes housing, health and AOB that Ireland is unable to organize and deliver, or in other words ‘Equality’ of a sort. There’s a case for monarchy here: A King and/or Queen cannot slope off after five years.

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    Mute Red Line
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    Jan 27th 2023, 8:19 AM

    What a surprise. My top comment deleted. Nothing I said was untrue

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    Mute cathalsurfs
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    Jan 27th 2023, 11:23 AM

    @Red Line: Was it this comment?

    “Refugees. Fleeing from London, Germany and other tourist locations. They might think the majority of Irish people are stupid but some of us are not.”

    Apparently such a statement gets you a toxicity level 6.3! Googles free speech suppression algorithms (Jigsaw) rates you highly dude!

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    Mute Red Line
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    Jan 27th 2023, 1:24 PM

    @cathalsurfs: it’s a crazy world

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    Mute Don Hogan
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    Jan 27th 2023, 2:04 PM

    It is not rocket science Michael Martin. Reduce the number of refugees to match the available accommodations.

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    Mute Nicholas Grubb
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    Jan 27th 2023, 7:49 AM

    Why are the economic migrants coming here. Simply because of the mess in their home country. An exact equivalent of all aid going in, goes out into the offshore assets of their elites. These assets need to be seized and sent back the origin country for use by properly managed Sovereign Wealth funds, for the purpose of social and infrastructural development. The owners? being given 25 or more year, bonds in their home country currency. These of course will become worthless, unless the owners pull their fingers out and make sure their country prospers. Rather like the Land Bonds here became not worth the paper they were printed on, though that was a result of inflation.

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    Mute Nicholas Grubb
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    Jan 27th 2023, 8:54 AM

    @Nicholas Grubb: and with our esteemed Michael D. the only non African at that big conference just held out there, pouring out his bleeding heart, guess which European country they will be heading for, Higgins’s or Melonie’s. Stand by for a bumper year.

    149
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    Mute Stephen Kearon
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:40 PM

    Ireland is a friendly, welcoming country committed to the protection of human rights. Those fleeing war, famine, abuse, etc, will find support here.

    Members of normal society know our history and are proud of our positive contributions around the world. Those seeking refuge are welcome here.

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    Mute Paul Kossoff
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    Jan 26th 2023, 10:42 PM

    @Stephen Kearon: That’s funny..

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    Mute Keth Warsaw
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    Jan 26th 2023, 11:41 PM

    @Stephen Kearon: Click-bate.

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    Mute Keth Warsaw
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    Jan 27th 2023, 12:00 AM

    @Stephen Kearon: You should really be in government Stephen. You’d fit in perfectly with your unrealistic illogical heartfelt nonsense that urinates (albeit indirectly) upon the people you purport to represent. Either that, or join an Order.

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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Jan 27th 2023, 7:52 AM

    @Paul Gorry: fairly hypocritical coming from a man who spends a lot of time on the journal calling on the young people of Ireland to leave in search of a better life when moaning about the situation in this country. So you encourage young Irish citizens to become economic migrants but refuse to accept any here?

    29
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    Mute Derek Lyster
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    Jan 27th 2023, 1:43 PM

    @Stephen Kearon: I take it that you are more than willing to allow some to come and stay with you. Maybe you can have other family members and friends help out too?

    32
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    Mute Pauline Gallagher
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    Jan 27th 2023, 11:39 PM

    @NotMyIreland: Irish people go to other countries to WORK, not live on welfare

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