Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS HAVE finally begun.
Almost a year after 52% of the UK’s electorate voted to leave the EU, Britain’s negotiator David Davis and EU representative Michel Barnier sat down eye-to-eye to negotiate what that break-away could look like.
The talks will cover the topical issues that have been exhaustively debated since the vote – these include the free movement of people, regulations from every sector including food industries and medicines, and the possibility of a border in Northern Ireland.
The EU has previously that there are three specific issues they wish to focus on: EU citizens’ rights, the financial settlement that the UK must pay as part of leaving, and the peace process in Northern Ireland.
And if they don’t come to an agreement on everything, or if the UK House of Commons reject whatever deal Davis comes back with, there will be no deal at all.
“No deal is better than a bad deal,” as British Prime Minister Theresa May has repeatedly said.
But what is a bad deal? What’s a ‘hard’ Brexit? Does it really make much of a difference what kind of Brexit deal there is?
The options range from the ‘soft’ closely-integrated relationships like Norway and Switzerland have, meaning no tariffs, free movement, and contributions to the EU; to Canada’s trade deal, which means reduced tariffs; to Turkey, which is part of the customs union.
Outside of all of these would be the WTO or World Trade Orgaisation rules, which would mean Britain would have the same relationship with the EU as other countries. This would be the ‘hard’ Brexit that the ESRI predicts could cost the Irish exchequer up to €500 million within three years of the UK’s departure from the EU.
Hard-boiled
A ‘hard’ Brexit is an extreme break, where very few of the ties between the EU and UK would stay intact.
Here are some of the groups that the UK is a part of because of their EU membership, and will be reviewed as part of the Brexit negotiations:
What’s between a ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ Brexit is more unclear – depending on how many EU groups and organisations the UK leaves, the ‘harder’ Britain’s separation will be.
Fianna Fáil’s Brexit spokesperson Stephen Donnelly says that there may be a ‘soft’ Brexit, or a complete reversal of the decision, depending on what direction Britain’s fractured politics takes in the next few months.
“Less people want a hard Brexit now when compared to immediately after the vote,” he told TheJournal.ie. ”And that’s across all socioeconomic groups.
“What we need to do now, is to try and create the diplomatic space for a ['soft' deal like Norway's].”
All the UK voted for was a Brexit. They didn’t vote to leave the customs union or anything else.
Although a Norway-like deal is possible, it’s in doubt whether there’s political will in the EU to allow it.
When Michel Barnier addressed the Houses of the Oireachtas last month he said that there was “no reason” why Europe can’t maintain a strong relationship with the UK, but it’s clear the EU can’t give Britain everything they want which could prompt another of the 27 member states also leaving the EU.
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, meanwhile, has been trying to carefully tread the line between keeping on his European colleagues’ good-side, and criticising the EU system.
He’s taken repeated aim at the four freedoms of the EU – people, goods, services and capital – and maintained that they can be separated from one another, which contrasts with what the EU has been saying.
That rhetoric has prompted quick and strong responses from the most cool-headed of EU leaders to respond and defend the union by taking jabs at the British leadership.
But Mairead McGuinness, Vice President of the European Parliament, says the EU is not trying to make an example of the UK, but is “responding to a decision of the UK to leave the EU by setting out our agenda”.
Talk of ‘punishment’ or ‘revenge’ misrepresents the EU position. The EU’s position is based on accepting that the people of the UK voted to leave, and that this is the policy that the UK Government is pursuing.
“As Michel Barnier said in Monday’s press conference following the first day of negotiation, ‘Basically, we are implementing the decision taken by the United Kingdom to leave the European Union, and unravel 43 years of patiently-built relations.’”
But will that decades-old patience run out?
“Part of this is just emotional,” Donnelly says. “If you’re listening to people like Nigel Farage, it’s a very understandable human reaction to go: ‘You got what you wanted, now off you go’. I hope that will calm down over time.”
A ‘soft’ touch
The deal that Ireland will be hoping for, is a ‘soft’ Brexit. This would be similar to the relationship Norway has with the EU:
Norway pays €890 million a year for those memberships (up until 2020), and are outside the customs union, meaning they have their own trade deals with non-EU countries.
A similar deal with the UK would count as a ‘soft’ Brexit, but that would mean they would have to accept free movement of people, which doesn’t seem likely given the debate around how to reduce immigration in the UK.
McGuinness says that “the lines are more blurred” following the UK general election.
Although she says it’s impossible to define the Brexit that will emerge, she’s confident that the UK and EU will put the peace process and Northern Ireland first.
A new word is emerging of a ‘sensible’ Brexit, which would take account of the concerns of UK business, education and other interests as well as the interests of the EU.
“On all sides, there is a political commitment to avoiding a hard border and safeguarding the Good Friday Agreement in all its parts.”
Border controls
UK Chancellor Philip Hammond said on Tuesday that he wants a “frictionless customs arrangement”, and to “keep the land-border on the island of Ireland open and free-flowing”.
But Davis said on the first day of negotiations that they plan to leave the customs union, suggesting that Britain are looking for a new option somewhere in between.
“It’s too early to say, but it’s pretty bad news for us that they won’t stay in the customs union,” Donnelly says.
Being a member of the customs union means greater checks on goods that cross the border. Over time, that could easily tip into a hard border, he adds.
If we have to check goods in discreet warehouses on the side of the road, that sounds good.
But if we’re going to have to start checking IDs, checking passports, then there’s a queue, and behind the official is men and women with guns… then we’re back to a border.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
We can’t house our people due to the debts the EU enslaved us with. Debts for elitism . FF FG LAB have committed treason against the people of Ireland…
Taxes after taxes to pay these debts whilst our people die on hospital waiting lists. All suits the rich whom control the media . Something is gonna give during brexit and the elite establishment here will not like it ..
@Willy Malone: Que people on their high horses complaining that they have to pay their mortgages and homeless people should basically go F*ck themselves!
@Willy Malone: do you want a tinfoil hat to go with that comment?
@Willy Malone: “the debts the EU enslaved us with” – The biggest lie of our time
The EU did not create our problems – we did. They only lent us the money to get back on our feet.
Its far easier to blame some faceless organisation / outsider for our problems but the fact is the root cause of the issues were of our own making
Uncomfortable, even harrowing, but true
@Willy Malone: maybe look at the full picture. The EU also invested a lot, especially during the celtic Tiger years. We just wasted it. With the money we got we should have a first class transport system, health care system and infrastructure in general. The bankers debt was a deal our government agreed to. Our government picks what they accept. Look at Apple tax for example. EU said we have to collect it, but yet our government refused. It’s just very easy to blame the EU for everything. And as for always blaming Germany for everything, maybe you should actually go and live in Germany for a while to see how happy they are with the EU
@Kevin McDonnell: so you don’t remember the “bomb will go off in Dublin” threat?? The debt placed on the Irish citizens should not be ours to pay. EU structural funds were never free. Where do you think the EU gets it money from?
@Willy Malone: Thinking back to 2008 and the banking crash, it was the ECB and Troika in particular who took us out of the mess we created for ourselves. The problem is that Irish politicians are low calibre individuals driven by a party whip system which is intransigent.
How is Ireland better off by having low levels of corporation tax and not being able to pay for decent healthcare or efficient public transport is beyond me.
@Willy Malone: __ “Sorry, that page doesn’t exist!” ____ Where’s Willy? :p
Can we compromise on a Semi ?
When will the U.K. realise that a hard Brexit is the only probable option to achieve what it wants to achieve and that a hard Brexit is much worse than no Brexit?
@Tony Daly: The U.K do not know what their position is, it is a crazy position and keeping with the current political turmoil in the UK, I never thought I would say this but the UK is politically unstable.
The UK wants:-
1. No freedom of movement of EU Citizens
2. No Single Market
3. No common customs area
4. No common and unified treaty system with third countries
5. An end to the supremacy of EU law and the ultimate Juducial authority of the Court of Justice of the CJEU, with the UK Supeme Court having final Judicial authority.
That’s hard Brexit. That’s a hard border between NI and Ireland.
The UK will end up with neither fish nor fowl if it wants to dilute the worst economic effects of a hard Brexit.
@Tony Daly: And meanwhile we see a member of the royal family saying that nobody wants to be a royal. That really sums up the mindset of the British elite doesn’t it..!!
@Tony Daly: __ Talking of “fowl”, they’d end up with a load of cock after a hard brexit.
The EU is good for politicians,their cronies,and Germany to take command of a super army,the EU one that is being formed,as Germany had restrictions put on its own army as in size and equipment it was allowed during German reunification talks.this is Merkels way round it.
@@mdmak33: go back to bed and get some sleep!
@@mdmak33: The fact is that Britain after WW2 was blind drunk with victory over the Germans but totally bankrupt and they had nobody to help them back on their feet.
I remember the Duke of Edinburgh once saying that the British are lazy and should get off their arses. This is clearly the difference we see today between Britain and their EU neighbours like Germany. The Brits will never admit that they lost the peace after WW2.
Question: How do you leave a customs union but not have checkpoints etc on the only land border you have??
Leaving the customs union, and an invisible border between Northern Ireland and The Republic are contradictory aims ……
It such a shame the EU could not of just been up front it instead of draging it on for years milking it till the last drop, we will never see or children of now see the the EU state when we just one. They should of just changed everything one time hit us hard one time and redesign for there. The current design is very clever we take all the cuts pay for all the funding while they just get richer.
Huh?
Can’t wait for the duty free shop on the border
Hope it’s in newry
We can do our Christmas shopping and get some duty free, wine etc
A small concession to being rode on the rim here day and night by the thieving skanks down here
A hard brexit
When you eat beans and white bread for a week
A soft brexit
When you eat custard and prunes for a week
David Cameron’s gamble has now come home to roost. His strategy was to setup the Leave option in the most unclear and undefined way as possible in the expectation that moderate eurosceptics would then be bounced into voting Remain as they would not want to make such a ‘leap into the dark’. Sufficient moderate eurosceptics still went ahead and voted Leave anyway and the current government now has to decide what flavour of Brexit to try and negotiate as no flavour of Brexit was on the ballot paper.
On this point those who claim that Hard Brexit was not on the ballot paper should note that Soft Brexit was not on the ballot paper either.
Philip Hammond said there will be longer transition period….before they leave the Customs Union……
This is only making more interested
This is absolute crap.
have your say