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RIGHT FROM THE beginning of Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency, his most ardent foes have been speculating about the possibility of impeachment.
Indeed, one member of the United States Congress, Texas Democrat Al Green, delivered an impassioned speech urging impeachment on the floor of the House of Representatives. In truth, his was something of an unsanctioned solo run.
The potential grounds for removing the controversial president from office most often cited are the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution and the findings of the ongoing investigations into purported Russian collusion with the Trump campaign to influence the outcome of the 2016 election.
The 25th Amendment outlines the procedure for removing a president when he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”. Trump’s harshest critics contend that his behaviour and pronouncements render him thus.
This amendment, enacted in the wake of President Kennedy’s assassination and subsequent concerns about succession to the country’s highest office, is arguably not applicable in the current context and, regardless, its invocation now remains far-fetched.
The so-called Russian connection and what related investigations might unearth have fuelled another line of conjecture as to how the president could be impeached. To date, though, notwithstanding comprehensive government and global media pursuit of the truth of what actually transpired while Trump was running for the presidency, no “smoking gun” has been found.
Of course, investigators could discover evidence of high crimes that would make enough Republicans turn on President Trump and vote for his impeachment. That still seems an improbable proposition, however.
Additionally, if the administration continues to conduct the business of the nation as it has, talk of impeachment will persist. But barring something unforeseeable – and God knows, the heretofore unthinkable has become the norm since 20 January 2017 – talk is all it will be.
Accordingly, at this juncture, the good betting is that the US and the rest of the world will have to live with Donald Trump for the next three-and-a-half years. An early question that a few commentators have raised is whether this historically unpopular president may be challenged by someone from his own party in the 2020 Republican primary?
Well, despite his overall low favourability ratings and the near constant stream of invective directed his way from several prominent GOPers, a recent Gallup poll indicates that 78% of registered Republicans approve of his job performance. Moreover, as the two most recent putative insurgencies demonstrate, there are significant institutional and broader obstacles to an intraparty uprising against a sitting president.
History
In 1980, the legendary Ted Kennedy took on an embattled President Jimmy Carter, espousing traditional left-wing values and rallying a new generation of Democratic activists to his family’s “enduring cause”. He ultimately fell well short.
In 1992, conservative firebrand Pat Buchanan tackled President George HW Bush from the right. While winning 37% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary was an extraordinary showing, Buchanan’s candidacy soon thereafter fizzled, with the Republican establishment weighing in heavily for the first President Bush. (As an aside, the extent to which these two unsuccessful campaigns foretold the current, ongoing battles for the “heart and soul” of each party is remarkable.)
That said, we are in new and in many ways unprecedented territory in 2017.
Trump’s presidency has been as chaotic, unpredictable and frightening as his detractors claimed it would. And in his words and deeds, he has arguably betrayed the struggling men and women in that vast, amorphous entity known as Middle America who placed their sacred trust in him.
John Kasich
Ohio Governor John Kasich, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination last year, has refused to rule out a second bid in 2020, whether the incumbent seeks a second term or not. Kasich has a compelling personal story – he comes from working class roots – and is an attractive politician, combining an overarching conservative philosophy with common sense.
Indeed, his views on healthcare and other government programmes are more palatable to hurting Trump voters in his own and other swing states. Yet he is an unabashed cultural traditionalist, like most of them.
On the flip side, some say he only prevailed in his home state in 2016; that he can be erratic; that purist ideological right-wingers reject his ‘Democrat light’, conciliatory approach; and that his internationalist bent – he is pro-free trade and has backed US military interventions in the past – is out of step with the isolationist impulse that got President Trump elected.
Others allege he lacks the “fire in the belly” necessary to do something so unconventional. And that’s not to mention the president’s largely undiminished popularity with grassroots Republicans, as well as his unique, crossover appeal to Americans who rejected his predecessors, John McCain and Mitt Romney, in 2008 and 2012.
At the same time, it is crucial to remember that Trump only became the GOP standard bearer because 16 other candidates were there to divvy up the vote; that the strength of feeling toward him may be “a mile wide and an inch deep”; that office holders act invariably in their own self interest and would throw this president overboard without a second thought if they thought it would help them win re-election; that the spectre of impeachment is a black cloud looming and won’t go away anytime soon; and that, if Democrats make big gains in the 2018 congressional midterm contests, aggrieved Republicans will want to lay the blame somewhere.
So to answer the question, there is a plausible scenario in which President Trump could be vanquished by someone from his own party. In my view, for a variety of reasons, John Kasich is the optimal challenger. And it would have to be a one-on-one fight.
In the end, even if idealists think policy and substance are what electoral politics should be all about, luck and timing have always been and will always be far more important. To defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential primary, John Kasich – or any other aspirant – would need both on his side, big league.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, Law Lecturer at NUI Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie and IrishCentral.com. He is also co-director of this weekend’s Kennedy Summer School in New Ross.
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No government official, no one in any way associated with any party or government organisation, and no one in banking should sit on this. It should be impartial foreigners to ensure it’s done right.
Except it’s a parliamentary inquiry so it has to be TDs or senators. If it wasn’t a parliamentary inquiry then it would have to be a tribunal presided over by a judge, and we all know how long they take and how expensive they end up being.
Up and running just in time for the summer recess.
Up and running in 4 or 5 months?
That’s just 4 or 5 years too late.
Not a bad reaction time for the Irish government.
Clerical abuse inquiry was 40 or 50 years+ too late.
They said that in July 2013!
They did Shane but the elections are on the horizon now
There’s more chance of Michael Schumacher up and running in four to five months.
Probably turn out like those PAC “grillings”. The culprits answer in grunts and “I’m not sure” answers. Everyone then goes home saying at least we tried. End result: Zero convictions.
A paper chase that has been shredded
No rush, guys. You’ve only been in government for three years.
Like everything these clowns do, a day late and a dollar short.
Another mahon tribunal just what the poor barristers need .
P o. Loved that one. :-)
Except that it’s a parliamentary inquiry and NOT a tribunal.
True . I really didn’t want to go too deep into it . I meant it as a lighthearted quip. The end result will matter as much as the mahon tribunal ie nothing . The high court will be kept busy that is a fact . Thanks for taking the fun out of commenting .
patricia my muse! what does it matter in the great scheme of things? is it a human concept! no such thing in the bigger spectrum… we are the result of the big bang, basically dust! to dust! ashes! to ashes!. Patricia, p.s. dont fear fear! its just words. mean nothing! hatches matches despatches?? not sure the driven licence loced lost!? Be funny to go somewhere safe muse!
This will, no doubt, be another kangaroo court which will provide another set-piece opportunity for politicians to get up on their soapboxes in order to make headline-grabbing, hyperbolic statements and allegations. That being said, it can’t go without remarking how comical it is that six years after the Americans completed their banking inquiry, our legislature is only getting around to starting theirs. Shouldn’t we be embarrassed by this inefficiency and slothfulness?
This enquiry should not start until AFTER the current crop of cases are finished. We should not give any of the accused any possibility of an out from it.
I suggest an enquiry into the governments inaction regarding the recommendations and findings if the recent raft of Tribunals. Specifically focused on why there had been no action on Messrs Aherne and O Brien.
This enquiry has no teeth. No right to hold anyone to account. The Garda and Revenue are the ones who should have been doing this from the outset. FG and FF have too many skeletons in the cupboard or in FF case one live one.
We haven’t seen anyone in court yet facing charges over what happened that led to the banking crisis. One reason for this is that we didn’t have in place the laws that made the actions of those responsible illegal. Five years later we still don’t have such laws. That’s the real scandal.
Theyve had nearly 6 fing yrs
A bag of wind ,wait and see as previously stated nice timing on the run up to elections ,this government is to strong they are able to run amuck and there is no real acceptable opposition ,frightening times and the people don’t seem to be reacting to unacceptable taxes under all different headings ,FF shit on us and FG are rubbing it in
Arrested and in front of the courts is where they should be, with a jury of the Irish people they destroyed, not their fellow cronies asking them “did you gamble with the people of Ireland’s money?”
“NO”
Ok then run along….
*wink wink*
It will be up and running to make FF look guilty b4 next elections
It’s either really late for the last banking crisis or really earlier for the next one! You’ve just to ask is the glass half empty or half full :-)
In Ireland the Rule Of Law and proper ethical standards only apply to to those in receipt annual incomes of less than €120,000 per annum.
There will be no revelation of the truth, no accountability, no personal culpability, just a few bland generalisations. Systemic fault and collective irresponsibility will be the themes.
None of these bankers will answer anything in case they tell the truth and might get charged, don’t forget the clock is ticking and if they can carry this charade on for a total of 7 years then no charges can be brought, and don’t forget we are at the 6 / 7 year mark already
Will the bankers have to apply themselves or will they be nominated by an independent body .If such a body exists ,Who selected them?Will it be a whose who of the disgraced banking sector, and Will they be paying and how much will they be paying to a group of consultants to select the said selectors and final committee? Basically ,How much will this sham cost?
It’s an Oireachtas inquiry. So that means only TDs and Senators will be on the committee.
So then it is not a sham as I first thought.Will this committee be sitting in the Gaiety or Olympia,and can you book tickets through ticketmaster.
Up and running: cost millions and get not result but to make lawyers rich.
Sure what hurry is on them!
Who is the FF rep on this Committee. In the interests of impartiality, if that is possible, it should not be a TD who was in the Ahern Govt.
A “clean skin” to use a FF term for someone without a track record.
Otherwise they are in effect investigating themselves and their past boss.
5/1 barry cowen id say
in the interest it should not be anybody from the country of ireland
Leslie ,I wouldn’t be too mad about Barry Cowan either being a brother of biffo i wouldn’t trust , blood thicker than water and all that ….
Cillian_d, i think you’re on the right track ,it cant or shouldn’t be anyone tainted from the ahern era …………. eerum that leaves, f….all i can think of… perhaps ur man Seanie who post here :)
Put in John McGuiness and Shane Ross they will sort it fast both men of integrity
Bill , You must be joking, integrity & mcguinness = oxymoran …
He has either, found God in the last couple of years, A Born again Moralist , got a bang on the head or the guilt got to him
People have short memories , He was a staunch Bertie man, & firmly sat in Ahrens corner to the end during the indefensible, and a right spendthrift with public money , remember the 250K facelift to his office and lots more … He’s pandering to the masses ….. very dubious !
An inquiry up and running 5 years after the collapse. Wonder how long it will take for its findings
Government just trying to decide which crony consultants to use before they appoint a few ex politicians/judges/special advisors or CEO’s in need of a top up and sure if they wait long enough another more important issue like the jailing of a criminal for protesting on a runway will get the publics back up so much that they’ll forget about a bank inquiry.
Oh goody goody. Doews that mean they will bring back the ‘Moolaqh’. I am only asking because I didn’t get any Moolah last time they were giving it out. I wasn’t well in during the Celtic Tiger era. But I have to admit I can still use my claws.
There are a couple of spelling mistakes in the above post. I want to make sure the Professional grammer police at Mary Immaculate college in Limerick are doing their job. I have to think of everyone. Its part of my policy.
luks gud tu me…
:D
the word COULD is sticking out a mile ,
its means it WON’T
Wow six years on and not one banker or developer arrested or held accountable. Typical Ireland hold out long enough and the people will lose interest.
Why is it that in other countries like America they have arrested and jailed bankers. While in Ireland bankers and developers are free to leave the country with their massive depths behind for everyone else to foot the bill.
If it was the US, they would have served time. In Ireland (ref CRC Kiely it seems to pay to be corrupt). Why do the enquires take so long?
Some expensive heavy is going to have a field day.
And lasting 10 years with no outcome.
let me think about this? You dont pay your tv license and you end up in court! emmm . You fxck up the country and you get this exclusive treament!!! wtf
My real concern is the potential for contaminating the impending trials against named bankers. I don’t believe there are enough members of the current House with sufficient experience to create a Committee that can avoid the mistakes defending lawyers will feast on in those trials.
There is no prospect of any convictions. The trails are a sop. No one involved in these trials takes the exercise as a serious and responsible exercise. It’s a gesture.
Likely there are pending efforts to defer the trials due to prejudice.
I doubt any serious enquiries into the banking curruption. It seems to me to be just another money spinning quango. I have lost faith in the system. Gardaí are out stopping and searching people on the street while banksters and politicians go about free to mess the country up unharrassed.
Agree there Tristan, social media is a great thing but we all need to wake up and smell the coffee and start marching in our hundred of thousands to send a stronger message.
Oh I can’t wait. Heads will roll. We will finally see justice done. Not…
Yeah…………
Emmet stagg??? (rent boy in the phoenix park) yet another cover up by the top brass. I wouldn’t trust anything these knobs say or do.
Can charges be brought after the inquiry or is this just another astronomically expensive fact finding exhibition?
A banking inquiry in 4 to 5 months! Well done the lads in Leinster House! Next week they’ll unveil plans to combat the Y2K problem!
Now if you’ll excuse me I’ve to go tell my boss that I will urgently get on top of my work, and expect to see some possible action in 5 years time.
“Could be”? Grand…
Havn’t heard anything from stag since the Phoneix park scandal
have your say