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“SHRUNK. DEMOCRATS ARE in their worst shape since 1929. Can anything save them?” So reads the new cover of Time magazine which includes a feature piece on the difficulties now facing the party.
In addition to having lost the presidency and being in the minority in both houses of Congress, they hold a mere 15 of 50 governorships and control only 12 of 50 state legislatures.
A considerable amount has been written and said about the ongoing internal struggle for the party’s “heart and soul”. There are some Democrats who believe the answer is to move further to the left and capitalise on the enthusiasm generated by Bernie Sanders’ insurgent bid last year. Others believe that the party must chart a more moderate course, lest it alienate the educated young professionals and wealthy donors on the coasts who have collectively become a crucial component of their base.
The wrong questions and wrong answers
Actually, they are posing the wrong questions and offering the wrong answers. The political solution, albeit unpalatable to both camps, is rather straightforward. If the party simultaneously embraced the economic populism in the ascendancy in the United States and downplayed the cultural leftist agenda that so many in “Middle America” are allergic to, it would surely recapture elective offices at federal, state and local levels.
While this debate continues, speculation as to who might be the party’s standard bearer in the 2020 presidential election has already commenced in earnest. A brief, necessarily incomplete and very early examination of the chances of some putative Democratic nominees follows.
At this incipient stage, so many names have been thrown into the mix that a comprehensive assessment of what seems destined to be a huge field of runners would be a book-length undertaking.
Three internationally known figures remain the ones that casual observers of American politics moot first: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And indeed, the buzz around all three won’t die down. Sanders ran a campaign in 2016 that became a movement and hasn’t slowed down; Biden is extremely popular with Democrats of every stripe and even with Americans who voted for President Trump, and Warren has considerable intellectual firepower and has been a relentless advocate for millions of men and women who’ve been left behind.
Yesterday’s men?
Yet there is an undeniable sense that the first two are yesterday’s men. Sanders will be 79 in January 2021 and Biden will be 78. Moreover, there is a serious question as to whether self-professed socialist Sanders could win a general election and it is likely that Biden missed his best chance at the White House last year.
The “age issue” would not affect Warren to the same extent, but even though she has championed their cause before and during her political career, it is uncertain whether unemployed steelworkers in Monessen, Pennsylvania could identify with a Harvard Law School professor residing in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
And if she were the nominee, President Trump would not hesitate to remind blue collar, white men that she referenced her quite distant Native American background strategically in her ultimately successful applications for Ivy League academic posts.
Several US Senators have been mentioned prominently, including Cory Booker from New Jersey, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand from New York and Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota. Each is a relatively young, proven vote getter with manifest ability.
The possible candidates
Klobuchar is popular with liberals and her midwestern background may prove an asset. Gillibrand, once an avowed “Blue Dog” (ie moderate) Democrat who opposed gun control, and Booker, an African American who was backed by 1996 Republican vice-presidential nominee Jack Kemp in his first run for mayor of Newark, are perhaps harder to classify ideologically, despite their having moved leftward subsequently.
Each, however, currently lacks national name recognition. 46% of voters have never heard of Booker and larger majorities don’t know Gillibrand or Klobuchar. And if Democrats factor geography into their selection process, none is from a potentially advantageous state.
Governors Andrew Cuomo of New York, Terry McAuliffe of Virginia and John Hickenlooper of Colorado have also been pointed to. The first two have big reputations that would cut both ways. Cuomo is associated with his late father, former New York mayor Mario Cuomo, and McAuliffe is a close friend of the Clintons. Hickenlooper is a low octane, “non-politician politician” who ticks a lot of boxes in the present climate, yet is an unknown quantity with no profile.
Two sitting US congressmen are longer shots. Joe Kennedy of Massachusetts requires no introduction. He is a thoughtful, articulate and capable young man. He is a teetotaller with no propensity for the behaviour that derailed the ambitions of some of his relations. Whether Kennedy’s optimism could strike a chord with struggling Americans is another matter, particularly if voters have had enough of political dynasties.
Tim Ryan of Ohio has been described as “a down-to-earth populist Democrat who won 68% of the vote in a Rust Belt Trump stronghold” district. He has obvious electoral strengths and is at one with the zeitgeist in 2017 America. It is a huge leap to go from garnering a mandate in Youngstown and Akron to winning his party’s nomination for president, especially in light of his track record on abortion – he was strongly pro-life until 2015 – and his recent attempt to dislodge the still very popular Nancy Pelosi as Democratic leader in the House of Representative.
Others may launch credible campaigns
There are numerous others who may launch credible campaigns. They, and those named above, will have to confront the query on the cover of Time magazine. Anyone who truly tackles it will encounter an impasse. Should the party return to its roots or follow the lead of moneyed interests that have arguably led it astray – to the right economically and ever leftward socially?
Much is ado about President Trump. Indeed, he is a bad president. But he is just a symptom. And attacking his policies or railing on about a “Russian connection” won’t alter this truth: even if Hillary Clinton had won in November, the Democratic Party would still be in trouble.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston attorney, a Law Lecturer at NUI Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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It’s time to tax the super rich.
@James Joseph: it’s time to tax vulture funds and not raising welfare a fiver a week and cutting the Xmas bonus would save a billion a year! They don’t want to collect more from the lpt due to an imminent election. When the shit hits the fan again and the analysis starts , fg won’t have been found to be a prudent set of hands , believe me !
Enda lied. Leo made it worse & Harris hasn’t a clue. FG don’t care about ordinary citizens suffering this way – they only care about themselves & their wealthy influencers. Never wasting a vote on that rotten party again.
@Setrakian: unfortunately it won’t matter who you vote in . government departments are run by long term civil servants with no accountability. Harris is just a public face of the system.until we get accountability it just goes on and on
Great week for the government. Over 10000 on trolleys and 10000 homeless. Should give themselves a raise
@Shaun Gallagher: don’t give the parasites ideas.
@Shaun Gallagher: they just did in October. Another 900 a year.1%.
@Shaun Gallagher: homelessness is a worldwide problem, there is 16000 homeless in NI under SF watch
@Patrick O Connell: So Parrick you are happy with the amount of people who have no home to call their own? There should be no one homeless in this Country if we had a Government that would put Ireland first.
Gotten to the stage where I’d happily vote to bar all serving TD’s and ministers from holding private health insurance.
Let them experience having to use the public health service is the only way to get things sorted.
@Mill Lane: that’s an inspired idea! Won’t happen though the piggies at the trough wouldn’t allow it!
If there was ever a major rail or aviation crash the system would crash. God help us all. Senior management are not up to running the HSE and the Dept of Health are at war with each other wasting money.
@Martin Sinnott: If you had an accident and woke up in one of our hospitals, you would think that there had been some sort of natural disaster such is the scale of the issue. It’s complete carnage. People everywhere. Fair play to the nurses and staff that work in those conditions
@Martin Sinnott: get rid of the gormless failure Simon Harris, finish your studies Simon and let a competent adult take over…
@Gus Sheridan: But who? And could anyone honestly make a difference at this point? Just take the recent situation with the mortuary in Waterford, there’s a written history of that going back to at least 2004 when State Pathologist Prof Marie Cassidy had written about her concerns regarding it. In 2017 a body had to be taken to another hospital as there was no room in Waterford, it’s this history of poor conditions that drove Prof Rob Landers to write and complain about the mortuary in University Hospital Waterford. Yet the Taoiseach could find no evidence to support it. Did he look?
No dignity for patients, no peace of mind for relatives but at least people can google what’s wrong with them on their high speed broadband or take great comfort knowing that the tax payer is shelling out billions to build a children’s hospital for consultants to make their fortune in the private clinics.
The public & hospital staff know it’s ‘unacceptable overcrowding…’ but where is the URGENCY from Government to adequately tackle the emergency?Plus over 700,000 people on hospital waiting lists,this is unacceptable also….but where is the URGENCY to adequately tackle this?There seems to be a sence of tolerance from Government re ‘unacceptable’ hospital overcrowding,massive hospital waiting lists etc otherwise these ‘unacceptable’conditions wouldn’t be allowed continue year after year!
Don’t worry soon they will all have broadband to stem the boredom.
10,000 in the corridors and at least another 10,000 on the streets , ahhh sure it’s a great wee country , Fu(kin 1st world country on its way back to 3rd world
@Karllye kripton: on its way back?…….
Vote fine gael, fair play to everyone. I’m alright John.
You voted for them so what do you expect !!!!.
Almost 70 years of complacency and you still vote for them.
Before you whinge “who else is there” , how do you know unless you try.
FFFG were democratically elected and this is what you get.
Nothing will ever change until both parties are removed.
But realistically we all know they’ll be in power for a long time to come
Dont worry about it Simon and Leo have appropriated MINIMUM €12 million to fund abortion “services”. You voted for it. Now reap the consequences
@Ismise Máire: whst has this to do with abortion ? This is the result of bad managment and greedy managers.
Shocking. Wouldn’t happen in the private sector because management would be fired and not have public service protection
Ireland, A ship of fools or Banana Republic, take your pick.
I was one of those people..went into hospital in severe pain did not see a doctor fr 12HRS..LIKE A FIELD HOSPITAL..
I’d wager that out of those 10,000 people that were on trolly’s how many were actually serious enough to warrant the need of a bed and how many could have been dealt by out of hours doc.
I saw one night I had to present to ED as I thought I was having a heart attack. There was a mother her kid had a high temp the mother started getting shouty so a nurse came out and asked did you present to caredoc first the mother replied no and was told she’ll be dealt with in rotation. There was a man and woman with a child who vomiting. The point been if people used caredoc for the minor ailments then the figure wouldn’t be 10,000 another thing a fee of €50 should be threatened for cases deemed not warranting specialist care like turning up with a cold or cough or vomiting.
Is it patients or is it patient days. Neither is good but knowing this confirms absolutely as I recall this being an issue before.
have your say