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A HOUSE-SIZED ASTEROID is set to give Earth a near-miss tomorrow, passing harmlessly inside the Moon’s orbit while giving experts a rare chance to rehearse for the threat of a real-life strike.
Dubbed 2012 TC4, the space rock will shave past our planet at an altitude of less than 44,000 kilometres (27,300 miles) – just above the 36,000 km plane at which hundreds of geosynchronous satellites orbit the Earth.
That represents about an eighth of the distance between the Earth and the Moon.
Nasa’s Mike Kelley, who leads the exercise to spot, track and intimately probe the transient visitor, insisted there was “no danger, not even for satellites”.
“We’ve now been observing TC4 for two months, so we have very accurate position information on it, which in turn allows very precise calculations of its orbit,” which will not cross that of Earth nor its satellites, he told AFP.
As its name suggests, the object was first spotted five years ago when it called on Earth at about double tomorrow’s projected distance, before disappearing from view.
It is 15-to-30 metres wide – about the size of the meteoroid that exploded in the atmosphere over Chelyabinsk in central Russia in 2013 with 30 times the kinetic energy of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
The resulting shockwave blew out the windows of nearly 5,000 buildings and injured more than 1,200 people.
While the Chelyabinsk event caught everyone unawares, TC4 is one of thousands of space rocks whose whereabouts are known.
Millions are not.
On its 609-day loop around the Sun, TC4 will return to Earth in 2050 and 2079, according to Ruediger Jehn of the European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object programme in the Netherlands.
“We know today that it will also not hit the Earth in the year 2050, but the close flyby in 2050 might deflect the asteroid such that it could hit the Earth in the year 2079,” he told AFP by email.
With a one-in-750 chance of hitting the planet then, TC4 is listed at number 13 on the “risk list” of objects posing even the remotest impact risk.
‘We are practicing’
“We need to make very precise observations to be able to better predict the return in the year 2050,” Jehn said.
Flybys like this one are actually quite common – about three objects similar in size to TC4 graze past at a similar distance every year.
What makes TC4 special is that it has been chosen to test the global asteroid pre-warning system, fed by a network of observatories, universities and labs around the world.
The asteroid’s close approach will allow teams to evaluate how accurate they were in predicting its orbit and size, while using telescopes to learn more about its composition.
“For us this is a test case,” said Jehn’s colleague Detlef Koschny. “We are practicing for the real serious case.”
Many scientists believe the Earth will once again be hit by a space rock of the size that wiped out the dinosaurs, though nobody knows when.
And even if they become better at predicting a strike, there is very little to be done about it, for now.
Futuristic projects mooted to deflect or destroy incoming space rocks have come to nought so far, and the only strategy would be to evacuate people in zones at risk.
TC4 will make its closest approach to Earth just before 6.41am Irish time tomorrow, at a point south of Australia, according to ESA and NASA.
It will not be visible to the naked eye nor with regular binoculars, “but it can be seen on the night of 11-12 October until about 4.00am from European observatories,” Jehn said.
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Let’s burn down the observatory make sure this never happens again!
Haha
Perhaps we should launch a space ship to intercept it and plant a nuclear device to blow it up
Will end up no bigger than a Chihuahuas head
I wonder could we point it in the direction of fg hq._.
Fg would probably blame the ira
So every 2 years it gets closer?
Your full name would Saint James I take it? You’d have no time for d’oul science like just burn them all at the stake
The key is to always wear a hard hat when you’re near a coconut tree.
Time to panic people. I can see it now. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes! The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
Don’t forget Mr Stay Puft!!!!
WAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!
I wait for Garabandal first… I think…
Just send Bruce Willis and Ben Afleck up…sorted!
I dunno… Who brings a into space?
If you didn’t bring a into space, you’d just have spce.
If it wasnt for asteroids, we wouldn’t be aware of asteroids. Any Dinasaur will tell you that !
Moss nearly destroyed all life on this planet once by effecting the oxygen content of the planet… A strange fact…
We’re well overdue Micheal, who knows when ?
Never mind the Asteroid my Haemoroids are killing me
Are they circling Uranus?
So you say “my Haemorrhoids are killing me” are they GM by any way lol.
Love the way they compare the odds of impact with the odds of being killed by a coconut. One coconut isn’t going to plunge us back into the stone age.
Either would the asteroid, it’s the same size as the one that hit Russia a few years back, the one they didn’t see coming?
Tell that to the poor fùckers who get obliterated by it Mal.
I e got a lovely bunch of coconuts !
Depends what it hits as what speed? Sellafield lol.
Their predictions are: as far as 14.5m miles away and as close as 11,000 miles. That’s some plus or minus . But they are absolutely sure it’s not going to hit. Fair enough . And even if it does hit it’ll probably be a soft landing.
The Department of Finance have a similar way of estimating our budget surpluses and deficit it seems.
The hangover I have right now I wish it would just smash into us.
Ha ha funny. Alcoholic ha ha.. did you smash it?
Fancy a pint later gabs?
Surely i’m seldom drunk but I’m never sober!
Where we meeting? I won’t be happy unless I come home with a smelly finger.
A near miss by a massive comet is just the kind of reality check humanity needs…
Between 9 million miles and 11,000 miles is a margin of error of 4.5 million miles.
As that margin of error is less than the closest to earth predicted, I would say they have no clue and it may hit us.
9 million miles is 10% of the distance from here to the sun.
11,000 miles is only twice the diameter of the earth, or just a trip from here to Sydney
11 thousand really isn’t that much. Frightening
Hocus pocus – asteroids don’t exist. All this ‘science’ proves nothing. When they’re not making up this nonsense they’re out there planting ‘dinosaur’ fossils.
THE SKY IS A PAINTING!
Standby for the gravitational waves.
Hope it doesn’t knock the GPO or the shinners will be blamed
At 100 feet in diameter it would take out most of the city never mind the GPO.
There could be an article about a kitten playing with a fluffy ball of wool and somebody still manages to bring politics into it. This article has NOTHING to do with Sinn Fein so just stop it. For the love of god stop it!!!
Every article on here turns in to fg vs sf. It’s all the paid party bell ends.
Who doesn’t like to see pussies playing with balls WJH ?
Good point P-anti.
May not hit us in 2017 but what about the next time it comes around. Is it getting closer and what sort of damage would it do?
Total…
Sorry it’s only 100ft , could cause movement in plates and cause earthquakes, could wipe out a city .
730 days to live.
It would cause local damage, if it’s over a kilometre wide start to worry, two km we’re going to get warm and then cold. The biggest on found to date is five and a half km wide and if that hit it would be bye bye love, bye bye sweet caress, hello emptiness, I think we all will die.
Hopefully Jupiter will take care of it for us.
Dave you are on dangerous ground around here stating facts.
It’s not that much bigger that the one over Russia a couple of years ago (20-30 metres) so it should mostly breakup in the atmosphere. It could cause some damage depending on where it hits but I think we can stand Bruce and Ben down for now.
Twould give you a bump if it landed on your head alright.
Oh no, I haven’t finished my mortgage!!!
I like the way no one is admitted to writing this scare mongering rubbish, would you not do what reputable media outlets done and tell people it’s the same size as the one that hit Russia a few years ago, so even if it did hit us it wouldn’t be the end of life as we know it, well it would be if it hit you directly, but the earth and the rest of life would go on.
The one your referring to in Russia was estimated to be 20-30 meters. This 100 meters.
Julie Colderone wrote the article, her name is printed at the end. She works for the ‘Business Insider’ also stated at the end of the article. Seems pretty clear who wrote it and where it was first published to me.
100 feet.
Aaaaaaasaaaaagh!!!!!!!
Get onto Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck there sure be grand.
I be more worried about one hitting the Sun made of dark matter?
“is slated to pay us another visit on 28 September 2017″
What does that mean?
While this may miss there is an asteroid out there with the Earth’s name on it. Hope it doesn’t happen in my life time but we may get ready..
The usual non-story.
Joking aside.
It is actually quite easy to divert an asteroid.
You just need to give it a small kick when it is several million miles away.
That kick will change its orbit and it will miss the earth.
A miss is not a hit.
The trouble is.
How do we get out there to deliver that kick?
P.S.
The thrusters routinely used to position satellites can easily nudge a Mount Everest sized asteroid out of the way provided that we install them when when the asteroid is several million miles away.
All it takes is a nudge to make it a “near-miss” rather than Armageddon.
That won’t work if the asteroid is already bearing down on us.
Start Praying to your chosen god if that happens.
A very real possibility that these events could be the biggest threat to our planet. Some great work done by these guys on the topic. https://youtu.be/aDejwCGdUV8
OMG we are all going to be killed by falling coconuts.
You can only get
the final word with a woman
if an asteroid destroys our planet
the moment you finish speaking.
Supposing it hit earth what damage would it cause?
The same instruments FG used to measure the fiscal deficit?
Hope it doesn’t, hit Burdocks.
have your say