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THE SHORT ANSWER is that we don’t know. We can see from an opinion poll a month ago that there is a marginal majority in favour of the Yes vote. As Richard Colwell of Red C points out there, this might not be enough of a cushion to withstand a strong no campaign. But it is not written in stone that the campaign must see a shift in support from the yes side to the no side. The yes side could run a good campaign. We know that the government parties are likely to put significant resources into securing a yes vote, and if the government is still reasonably popular (although the recent B&A Sunday Times poll had satisfaction at just 25%) people are unlikely to use it to punish the government.
However if we look at the Red C poll we can also see that older people and middle class people are significantly more likely to oppose the Treaty. Given that these are the people who are more likely vote (although Red C control for self-declared likelihood to vote) this might lead us to believe that the Treaty would be rejected.
But polls such as this may not be fully meaningful. It will only be in the heat, and hopefully light, of a campaign that we see public opinion solidify. Opinions are based on predispositions, and perhaps the Yes-side will be worried that trust in the EU among Irish citizens is at an all time low (just 24 percent trust the EU compared to 60 percent who say they do not, see Eurobarometer here, p. 46). We just don’t like the EU as much as we used to.
Despite this, there are a number of reasons I think the Yes side might edge this referendum. First is that the government took the decision to call it, and it wasn’t as a result of an ‘Adam’s judgement’ – where the yes side could be thought to be actively trying to deny the people a vote, and the whole affair perceived as yet another attempt by an undemocratic elite to foist their evil plans on the innocent Irish people.
If the No side is going to win it has to frame the question in some way. It’s too bald for people to accept that this is a ‘do you like the EU or not?’ vote. Nor is it the case that this will be an ‘austerity referendum’ – the austerity will happen regardless. But we can see that in the past, opponents were able to place issues such as neutrality, abortion and conscription in the decision. If there was something that unified the Catholic right and the nationalist left it is probably that they fear a loss of sovereignty – they might point out that this treaty is confirmation of that loss. The yes side might point out that the very fact there’s a referendum shows that the Irish people are still sovereign.
The Treaty is much shorter and clearer than previous treaties. It is not going to be easy for the No side to collect a whole raft of issues and build a disparate coalition. Presumably Cóir do not have an opinion on this treaty and will not get involved in the campaign. So it is not clear who will lead the no campaign. Declan Ganley might not oppose this, and it’s not clear Shane Ross or others on the right will lead the charge against it. So it might be left to Sinn Féin. And Sinn Féin might struggle to say where Ireland is expected to borrow to service a deficit the party wants to increase if EU funding is closed off to us. Meanwhile, the old and middle class will feel uncomfortable being on the same side as Sinn Féin if they are not joined by someone ‘respectable’ such as Shane Ross.
On the substantive issue of the treaty there is a clear majority of Irish people in favour of reducing deficit and debt (ie more favour austerity than think a stimulus is plausible – see EB survey here page 96) and most people support stronger co-ordination of economic and fiscal policies (p 99). Even though many economists agree that this Treaty is a pointless sop to the Germans, few argue that it is inherently dangerous.
A major difference between this referendum and others is that now we have no threat of a veto. If 12 other countries from the Eurozone agree to go ahead, it will happen regardless of the Irish vote. While the EU, I’m sure, will sweeten the deal by giving some concession in the weeks coming up to the referendum, the other countries are not invested in the same way they were for the Nice and Lisbon referendums, where nothing could happen at an EU-wide level until every country was on board.
The yes side may incorrectly try to say that it will threaten our membership of the Euro – it will not. But it will mean that part of the eurozone goes ahead without us, leaving us uncertain of our status. The fear of being excluded might be stronger than their anger at the EU. This should be enough to make the Irish vote ‘Yes’.
Eoin O’Malley teaches politics at Dublin City University. His book, ‘Governing Ireland: From cabinet government to delegated governance’ edited with Muiris MacCarthaigh is published next week. You can follow his pointless musings on Twitter @AnMailleach.
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Dont know about u guys but most people i know are close or on the breadline at the moment and to sign up to god knows how many more years of austerity without getting a huge write down on debt that aint even ours is fucking ludicrus. Most of us are well educated people, we aint thick paddies anymore and we know there is an act of complete criminality happening here and in Europe at the moment perputed by banks that are now dictating terms to all of Europe. Its time for Irish people to stand up to these evil bastards and say no and hopefully we will be the spark that brings this shit system down and we can rebuild again with something that is beneficial for everyone in the world. I may be an idealist but there is no reason it cant be done.
idealists built the world! (hopefully idealism is of a socialist rather than a capitalist incurvate)
Derek, I tried to give you two thumbs up but it wouldn’t let me…. :)
There is indeed a rise in political and social conscienceless Derek. I’m with you all the way.
Fair play to you Derek, tell it as it is, i totally agree with you.
Apart from this treaty vote the people of Ireland can also say NO to the Household and Water Taxes to show these bullies that we are not thick Paddies as they seem to think we are and we are not going to give these bankers and bondholders any more of our money. If we all new the stock market was such a safe bet we would have all invested in it. Try going into Paddy Powers and asking for the money back that you lost on a horse race, you would be laughed out of the shop.
If the Irish are so well educated and clever perhaps they might tell me this – how is our country supposed to fund the massive amounts of spending we undertake every year? Health Service, Public Service, Pensions….how exactly are these to be funded every year when we as a country operate at a massive loss?
Maybe if one of elected representatives grew some balls and told the EU that we can’t be expected to pay off every failed gamble of German and French banks, time to get the German taxpayers to pay for their own losses.
Some of them billions we shell out would go a long way towards balancing our books if they were kept here.
That sound too credible Felix?
Or do we just trundle on paying without quibble?
Angry Birds in Space is coming out on 22nd March :D
Put fiana labour in the catapult and fire the to the Pegasus galaxy please
Irish people will always vote yes. Ireland is unlike any other country anywhere and our politicians are very well aware of that. Unfortunately the majority of our people are ignorant and thick so they will believe the lies every time and do exactly what they are told by people they already know are liars. Speaking of my own people and country so negatively may seem harsh but can anyone genuinely disagree that we are not one of the most ignorant electorate’s on earth? Can anyone show me another people who have thrown away so much of their sovereignty and freedom just because politicians (primary school teachers in suits) told them to do so. The same idiots who would prefer to betray their country for money, bankers and EU dictators. For the first time in my life I dont care about this ridiculous little country, throw away whats left of it!!
Iran, Germany under the Nazis, Russia under Lenin, most of Africa. When people get the herd mentality we are capable of acting daft no matter what our nationality.
I keep looking back to our past to see when this magical sovereign utopia existed here but can’t find it.
Honestly I’m really sick of this shíte. No resource poor small country can every be sovereign, and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.
Oh Gary,
thank God for you and sanity!
I can see this really important vote getting caught up in the shitkicker politics of ;
‘me sister can’t get a house’
‘I’m *entitled* to free education all me life’,
the *government* should find a job for me
Burn the bondholders
Leave the EU
Its the Germans fault
Tell the troika to stick their money up their arse
I’ll show that bleedin’ government for puttin on a household charge
Speak for yourself
@DubInNaas, in fairness, isn’t that a little bit too cynical?
Hallelujah brother! I’m 100% with you.
Irish people will always vote yes?
Only because every one of our governments have been europhile and support every proposition the EU invents, they agree to everything and then expect us to bury our heads and agree once we hear the usual tag line – vote yes to be at the heart of Europe, we voted to be at the heart of Europe since the Maastricht treaty yet we are still nothing more than a small island full of EU yes men.
Both Lisbon treaties promised an open and fair EU, a yes vote would prevent the bigger countries (Germany and France) dictating to everyone else, a no vote would mean we would be subservient to the whims and wishes of Germany and France…..maybe they did accept our original rejection because from my view I see a few dominant countries dictating policy to everyone else and we’re still on the periphery.
Aren’t we at this moment discussing a German drafted treaty????
Dermot. The ESF and the new Fiscal Compact are both intergovernmental deals, so they are not done using the structures of the EU. This is how the Fiscal compact doesn’t need everyone to agree on it like it did with the Lisbon treaty. So the playing field isn’t levelled by the EU, and the countries that in the real world are always bigger and more powerful than us can throw their weight around. So your comment actually shows why it’s never been more important to work within the EU.
In a crisis countries will throw their weigh around, no one should be surprised about this. There is no redo on this Fiscal compact either, all it needs it 12 countries to sign up which they will. Then the others can bypass us. It really has never been more important to embrace the EU and by signing up to this agreement we can get back to actually using EU structures.
We voted no to two treaties. Our ecair was marked in red pen and we were told to do it again. Typical primary school teachers.
I would prefer to aspire to sovereignty and self determination rather than allow some technocrat in Frankfurt or Brussels dictate or collective future. Irish citizens are not responsible for the banking crisis in the euro zone.
Vote no no no!!!!
No, No, and No again if needs be!
If needs be?
You obviously have problems remembering the 60′s 70′s and 80′s.
And for good measure throw in the 90′s as well.
I have no wish going there. Again
So Sinn Fein know what they have to do. Try some reverse psychology and change their stance to a yes vote. ; )
No
I hope the vote on the fiscal treaty will be a yes vote. Recent history has well demonstrated that we are poor in controling budgetary matters . Spending too much and borrowing to much in a disasterous spiral. Our banks had to be recapitalised. Crazy situation that has lowered our self esteem. We have got to get back on track. To ensure this we need more control of fiscal matters from Brussels if EU legal architecture does not provide for this. We share some of this sovereignty with the other menebers of the euro zone. We can also protect our corporation tax with a protocol if necessary. We must integrate for our own welfare. As John Donne, the poet, once said ” man is an island” Definitely i am voting yes.
In theory, all very well, but we cannot possibly get our deficit in order (60%) by the time alloted in the treaty, without pursuing punishing austerity that will damage our economy for decades to come. Yes, we need to clean up our act, but we cannot be pushed into a ‘one method fits all’ treaty. Our situation is grave and unique, and we need our own tailored solution before signing up to any international commitments.
Firstly, Donne said that “No man is an island”, but I think that’s what you meant from the context.
Secondly, that is far too simply minded, we’re not in a position to pull ourselves up by our own bootstraps! We’re in for a hard time regardless, so why make it worse than it has to be. We should retain what little independence we have left and do things in our own way and look out for ourselves for once!
Thats all very well Sean – but who is going to pay for it? The EU must continually fund our extravagance because….well….just because….
The irony is that youre saying we must remain independent and sovereign whilst in the very same breath saying we must not allow a set of circumstances to develop which would force us to live within our means.
We therefore must depend on the EU to fund us.
Crazy stuff.
The EU must continually fund our extravagance because….well….just because….
Allow me to finish that for you.
Because they burdened us with an unsustainable debt to cover the losses of European banks who gambled here, mainly German and French banks.
Dermot we burdened ourselves with huge debt. Or at least the incompetent government we elected three times in a row did. Every day people moan about the banks but we’ve borrowed most of the money for day to day spending and not the banks.
If you think we’re paying back German and French banks. prove it.
@Joseph Murray. When we signed up for the Masstricht treeaty we agreed to stay within the 3% we did that for 20 years unlike some other countries. The fiscal compact as now suggested could not have prevented what happened to the banks as it doesn’t make any mention of removing grossly incompetent politicians and functionaries.
Prove we’re not bailing out German banks Gary.
It’s been well publicized that the bank debts are not solely ours so it’ll be interesting to see where you read contradictory arguments.
The problem is Dermot we simply don’t know who was actually owed the money. And by now most of those bonds will have been sold on. I’m just making the point that saying it was the Germans and French doesn’t make that true.
No allow me to finish it for YOU Dermot:
Europe must continue to fund our extravagance because…
….
Um actually they dont have to.
They might well continue to fund us at some level until we get back on our feet. But they could very easily tell us to cut our cloth more significantly than we have been.
You can bleat about whos debt it is all you want – it wont change the fact that we’re paying it. It wont change the fact that this treaty will be ratified with or without us and it wont change the fact that we are spending grossely more than we are bringing in.
So either
A) we vote yes and Europe keeps on footing the bill for our grossely overpaid public sector, social welfare and all the other excesses or
B) We vote No and hope to God they keep funding said excesses.
Seeing as we need the money either way – which way do you think is more likely to guarantee that they keep dolling out the cash?
Joseph – can you tell me how having the Fiscal Compact in place 10 years ago would have altered the course of Irish history. We weren’t running massive deficits, but were overly reliant on a tax base that was grossly inflated due to the property bubble. Fiscal Compact would have done jack to reign in those excesses. The fact that we took on the private banking debts and had to pump money into defunct banks while at the same time a vast portion of the tax base is what has crippled us. I think budgetary constraint could have been introduced quicker, but the real problem is the bank debt. I’m all for sensible public accounts and tighter management, but let’s not be sidetracked into introducing German fiscal policy, when the real issue is something much different and one which as of yet has had no real solutions tabled.
Vote yes!
Ok Mr Lee!!
Just cause u said so….
ya wally
A Comment from VerySeriousSam on the Economist
http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2012/02/irelands-referendum-fiscal-compact
‘I do hope that the Irish people reject this thing. And this time please stick to it, not like the last two times when they 1st voted no, then agreed in the 2nd ballot.
At least the Irish get the chance to vote. We Germans don’t, Merkel and Schäuble (and pretty much most of the political ‘elite’) are not much in favour of real democracy.
I can assure you that if we Germans would have been asked, none of these crazy ‘eurozone bailout funds’ etc. would have passed. And yes, we are very well aware that all this taxpayer money transfer is primarily to save the worldwide finance industrie’s profits.’
All the nonesense about showing solidarity with the EU is untrue. Europeans don’t want it either. They may not be able to vote, but we have the chance to vote for what is best for Europe on a European treaty.
Here’s somebody else talking sense.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/feldstein45/English
@Ryan
Of course the Germans would vote NO !
Its the well behaved and mature German people who are bailing out gobshite backward countries like Ireland greece and Portugal.
Countries that should be allowed run a bingo hall !
Yet Germans are committed to the idea of one currency (incidentally one of Hitlers ideas proposed in Mein Kampf) and can see the bigger picture, unlike ParishPumpPaddy.
DublinNaas.
You do of course realise that we’re paying the debts of German banks, they didn’t come here atop a white horse to save the Irish people, they cam here to make sure that every cent German banks gambled on the Irish economy is paid in full, it’s why Mrs Merkel made that public announcement that forced us out of the markets and into the clutches of the EU/IMF/ECB.
She knew what she was doing – foisting a massive debt on Irish shoulders to protect Germans picking up the tab for their own banks failures.
It’s why people say that the debt is not ours, it’s not.
But you know all this don’t you.
And again Dermot for the people who say we are paying back to Germans banks, prove it. Because I’ve asked some of the economists who initially said this and they couldn’t prove it.
You’re actually saying that this debt is 100% Irish owned?
Really?
Not at all, just no one has come up with a proper list. Some of the bonds are held by Irish pension funds but which ones. I would love to see an accurate list.
List of Anglo Bondholders. Mostly French, Swiss, German banks / hedgefunds http://order-order.com/2010/10/15/anglo-irish-bondholders-should-take-the-lossesis-the-ecb-forcing-ireland-to-protect-german-investments/
That isn’t an accurate list. There are junior and senior bondholders on that for starters. Also none of the Irish bondholders are on it.
Gary, read it again – it is a list of foreign Anglo-Irish bondholders who between them owe 4 billion. Where does it mention junior / senior bondholders btw? You asked for proof of German banks / hedge funds and I gave it to you. Your’re argument that there is no Irish bondholders is flawed.. It is not what you asked for. Besides this is just 1 list of many Anglo bondholders. Why don’t you go look for proof yourself to substantiate your own claims. Or maybe it’s just that you don’t like hearing the truth?
No no no
I’m getting a sudden attack of deja vu.
A no vote majority, then repeat, then a yes vote.
Hi Joost, I strongly believe that in the second vote the last time the people still voted NO but the government fixed it to a yes vote. I will be voting NO again but have no faith that my opinion matters, and again the government will weave their very own magic wand and get a yes vote regardless of the actual result.
Ah come on. Okay you didn’t like the two to one yes vote but let’s not make up conspiracies. I’d ask you to explain how that could be done but it’s frankly so ridiculous it’s not worth it.
Hi Gary, What I find ridiculous is the fact that with everything the government has done to the people of Ireland, robbed, lied and brought us all (not them) but the ordinary person to the brink of bankruptcy, that you think they couldn’t and wouldn’t fix a result to their own gain. That is very naive.
Would that have been the Fianna Fail government we elected accidentally three times in a row?
Yes Gary, the same FF but partial credit must go to FG/labour who renewed the bank guarantee, writing out a blank cheque to the banks without batting an eyelid…………………………………….
The thumbs down shows that people don’t believe facts.
I think the thumbs down are to do with the fact they had little choice but to do certain things, we don’t have to like it.
I’m voting no, cos there is not one banker in jail that caused this crisis and what the bankers were doing, as in moving money to accounts was totally illegal..
Indeed, but none of that has anything to do with the treaty. Maybe Varadkar had a point after all.
So basically you dont give a damn what the Treaty is actuslly about or whether it is beneficial to the Irish people – you just want to moan about Fianna Fail.
This is the really scary thing about Ireland – people like this.
So basically you dont give a damn what the Treaty is actually about or whether it is beneficial to the Irish people – you just want to moan about Fianna Fail.
This is the really scary thing about Ireland – people like this.
oh no!
Do i have to start holding your hand too felix?
@Desmond Given that the treaty is clearly promoted by and written for the benefit of those criminal central bankers and their commerciial banking offshoots, it does have a lot to do with this referendum, no matter what motor-mouth Varadkar has to say.
FG Lisbon Treaty slogan “Jobs, Economy & a Stronger Europe”….. yeah maybe Leo had a point.
Shatter is saying “the previous government let spending go out of control” despite the fact that the fiscal compact (FC) wouldn’t have addressed any of the issues that resulted in the loss of our country and the erosion of our democracy.
The YES ‘arguments’ are just as spurious as Richards comments may be….
They changed the ESM to include references to the FC retrospectively – I see no reason why they can’t change it back. The government has said that it’s “ludicrous” to suggest we’ll need a second bailout => no need of ESM.
Correct – we want balanced book – that’s not the issue… the issue is who controls the balancing. The FC would enshrine that outside forces have a CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT to intervene in our affairs in the future.
Yep – Leo definitely doesn’t want this to be about the treaty itself.
I’ll be voting NO – this time and as many times as it takes.
“We declare the right of the people of Ireland to the ownership of Ireland, and to the unfettered control of Irish destinies, to be sovereign and indefeasible. The long usurpation of that right by a foreign people and government has not extinguished the right, nor can it ever be extinguished except by the destruction of the Irish people.” VOTE NO
Nice one! Could we use that against them giving our forests to Bertie?
The nationalist blankie. So comforting, not.
Well we will know what Mr Ganley will think of it after his event in Maynooth 2morrow nite. Should be interesting as he seems to have singlehandledly brought the who che guevara statute thing to prominence over the last week.
Thanks for the heads-up Sean. Tomorrow I’m outta here.
Mr Ganley is a federalist so he will of course want a yes vote.
We gave our fisheries to the Europeans …and the estimated value on that is anything up 100 billion..I think Ireland could stand on its on two feet…we have a lot of untapped resources..
100 billion ????
On what basis do you make that claim ??
No need to estimate. I have the recent figures if you’d like them too.
http://www.inshore-ireland.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=769&Itemid=175
“The value of fish taken out of Irish waters from 1950-2004 is approximately 12bn euro at current exchange rates. Of that, 3.5 billion euro worth approximately was taken before Ireland joined the EU and the remaining 8.5bn euro between 1974 and 2004. Of the 12bn euro, Irish boats have taken approximately 25% or 3bn euro. The total value of the catch has risen since Ireland joined the EU and Ireland has been amongst the prime beneficiaries from the increased catch”
So the total catch from Irish waters in *54 years* was 12 billion euro. That 100 billion figure is utter nonsense.
Gary it does not matter what the amount is, the fact is the government sell us out every time we have a money making opportunity in this country, they sell it off to the highest bidder. I am sick and tired of people running down their own people and resorting to name calling. Please everyone will you all just stick together and stand side by side with your fellow country man/woman, yous are falling right into their trap, they are setting you up to fight among each other and to keep you busy while they rob you and ruin yours and your children’s future.
What did they sell out exactly?
First of Gary, they sold out the people of Ireland, our young people have to leave their country to make a living somewhere else, which in essence means they sold our most valued and valuable, our Children.
They sold the M1 North Link to a french based group Egis, it use to be Eazy Pass but is now eTRIP.
They sold their 22.5% stake they had in the A.I.B to a bank called M+T in America, might not have been a bad idea in the long run but never the less they done it.
This is to just name a few.
Let’s be clear about this. We elected FF three times in a row and they created and fuelled a property bubble. That bubble bursting is why so many people are out of work. They did the same things all along but we kept electing them so we as nation did this to ourselves.
Selling out and just simply selling something are completely different things, perhaps you should look it up.
Gary – You seem to have forgotten the decimation of the fishing industry as a whole in your facts and figures, how many jobs were lost as a result of EU fishing policy?
I can tell you a lot. Look at picture of any harbour in Ireland 20 years ago and then look at one of the same place now a days.
Fishing has never been a big industry in Ireland, ever. Nor has there ever been people queueing up to to work in it. We import people to work in it as Irish people don’t want to do it. I don’t have a link handy but I believe it was 10,000 people at most who worked in it. As far as I know it’s still about 10,000, though we do more processing.
Can we accept that in fact the EU didn’t ‘steal’ our fish?
@Gary, have a listen to this and you might have a re-think on the actual value in monetary terms of the fish.
http://www.rte.ie/radio/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A3188871%3A8155%3A04%2D02%2D2012%3A
rte radio player Charlie Bird discussing the fishing industry with Dr Karen Devine.
where is it in the show? Don’t have an hour to spare right now.
Oops the important bit 35 minutes in.
Just emailed her to explain where she got those figures from.
Be interested to see what she says. From memory our esteemed current minister for Health was also using the figure of €200bn before the last GE. He was saying it was one of the important figures that FG would be bring to the troika when they were going to ask for changes in the Memorandum of understanding.
No reply as of yet Kerry. Though the link I posted has the real figures so she is wrong, no question about it.
Not sure you’ll see this Kerry but never got a reply.
Joseph, you have got to be kidding, right!! Our fiscal situation is the making of poor governance on the part of fianna Fail. Their insane fiscal policies wrecked the national economic balance. The banking recap is as a result of a neo liberal light touch regulation by the same institutions you endorse to run our affairs. No way!! No!
we are a greedy, lazy, stupid nation. I’d be gone from here if it wasn’t for negative equity. I hate this place. Enda Kenny is one of the dumbest people in Ireland and yet he is driving the ship. We need to throw all politicians from Leinster house, start a new party with a whole new set of rules with regards politicians pay and conditions. No more golden handshakes, no more collecting numerous pensions, no more quangos, no more ridiculous allowances. It’ll be a pay scale, you get a job there, you get one wage, you don’t get an allowance for going to work. If you live in cork you claim your fuel based on receipts only and dail attendance records, You work until 65, you quit you loose it all like everyone else that quits a job in the real world, you get fired for stealing printer cartridges, cheating expenses, corruption with no golden handshake and no pay like everyone else. You are reported to the gardai when you do any of the above. This is after all a job, you work for us, you do things in our interest, if you need to hire 3 and 4 advisers you aren’t able to do the job so you get fired! None of the what are seemly normal rules that apply to everyone else in this country actually apply to our politicians. THIS HAS TO STOP!
Don’t kid yourselves.
Vote yes vote no
To Merkel & Sarkozy this country is expendable.
A drop in the ocean
If we vote no they’ll go along without us. Say what you want about Nice and Lisbon in the end we voted yes. No one will come courting us this time.
Dont believe that for a second. Ireland will be a goldmine in future years. There is a reason countries arent pushing ahead with green energy, because advancements in technology means there is huge untapped riches in gas and oil in Ireland and on our coasts. As well as our farming industry which will have huge prevlance in the onslaught of the planet warming up ( man made or not its happening ) ,we stand in a great position in the future of this world but its just who controls that, us or them.
Derek speaks the truth, its all about the future power share not a fiscal fix for now.
We don’t want anyone to come courting us Tag Dark. We’re not for sale. He’s a fairly brutal philandering boyfriend anyway. Ask Greece.
I really do envy those fortunate enough and couragous enough to emigrate.
Best of luck to you.
Ireland will never offer longterm security for their own people.
Irish politics…insular ideals
“A European currency will lead to member-nations transferring their sovereignty over financial and wage policies as well as in monetary affairs… It is an illusion to think that States can hold on to their autonomy over taxation policies.”
Hans Tietmeyer, Bundesbank President (1993-1999)
Looks like the European parliament are going to tell the Irish government tomorrow that we might need a mini budget..and we’re only two months into the year…hope that cheers everyone up this evening..
Not true. European Parliament not involved.
Actually it’s the Bundestag that knows more about our business than we do. And it’s the Germans that have a hand in this mess. Uk and USA printed money to stave off the worst effects. Germany says no. We wouldn’t of had a property bubble if the interest rates were at the level they should have been but were kept low to suit Germany. All facts guys.
Ballyer, we had a property boom because our own government poured money into the economy by bloating public expenditure; by giving tax breaks to fuel a construction boom; by giving more and more personal income tax cuts; by slashing capital gains tax; by increasing benefits to insanely high levels; by huge increases to public sector employees thus ratcheting up wage levels in general; by setting up an unbelievably one sided social partnership; by ignoring domestic inflation so that we became the most expensive place in Europe to do business and by criminally failing to regulate banks and other financial institutions.
Back in the day, when the single currency was being discussed prior to Maastrict the question of a one size fits all interest rate policy was hotly debated. The consensus agreed was that smaller economies who were adversly affected by too high or too low interest rate would deal with the imbalance by fiscal means, either by fiscal tightening or loosening as the economy required.
Our crowd, of course, ignored everything except their desire to fill their boots.
This is why we must say yes to this Compact. We must have the means to put manners on our presentband future governments and this agreement will enable us to do this.
Thank you Peter
But Peter as far as I’m aware since signing the Masstricht treaty 20 years ago we never exceeded the 3% so how will this fiscal compact prevent the same thing happening in the future?
I’m voting no.
All this will do is hand the EU a stick to beat us with, they have already kicked us square in the nuts by having us pay a debt that is not ours and nobody will kick us harder when we’re on the ground than our so-called European partners, why give them another weapon to chastise and subjugate us?
If you vote NO – you are essentially suggesting that Ireland should not have to live within its means. That being the case who are you going to ask to provide us with the extra money to fuel our extravagant lifestyle?
Where will it come from?
Sigh.
where have I suggested that?
Do all you yes men read what you want to read?
Of course I want this country to live within it’s means but there’s the small problem of us paying off a massive debt which does not belong to us before we can even contemplate ratifying anything like this.
Somebody else likened this treaty to austerity on steroids, what harm would that do to growth when we’re already adrift in a sea of austerity.
Don’t be fooled by the threats of being thrown to the wolves if we need another bailout, do you honestly think our so-called EU partners would allow a member state go under and potentially unravel the whole euro project?
All this treaty is essentially designed to do is stop countries spending more than they are bringing in. Thats basically it in a nutshell.
Youre advocating a NO vote – youre therefore against that idea. So where do we get the money from?
Forget the massive debt we’re in. Even without that we’re spending more than we make in terms of pensions, the health service, social welfare and so on. We have to borrow the money from the EU to keep all of that going.
Would the EU throw a member stat e to the wolves? Perhaps not – But look at Greece. Massive austerity. They may continue to lend to us. But they may very well say – fine We’ll lend you ‘X’ but we’re certainly not lending you ‘Y’. And why should they?
There is a serious risk that they will greatly reduce what they are willing to lend us rather than “cutting us adrift”.
Its quite simple – we live grossely beyond our means. The State cannot afford the pensions, the public service, social welfare and so on. It simply cannot pay for it. That money has to come from somewhere – currently our friends on the the continent. Would they stop the money altogether? Probably not. Might they reduce it? Theres an excellent chance of that.
And why? Because when asked if, in the future, would you be willing to live within your means to prevent this kind of crisis happaening again, the Irish answered NO! We WONT! YOU must keep paying for us to live so well!
Stop aligning my no vote with me disagreeing with book balancing measures.
It’s common sense that you don’t spend more than you have, it’s the basics of finances whether you’re a country, a household, a business or a singular person.
Unfortunately Felix our massive debt will be brought into the equation, not our massive debt but a debt all the same so we’ll have to force through the repayments of these unfair dues to reach parity, do you realise the harm that will do to this country? we’re already hemorrhaging billions paying this so further austere policies brought in will strangle growth and recovery unless something is done about the debt imposed on us.
Judging by remarks made yesterday that no assistance or write down will be asked for we will be paying through the nose for debts and attempts to remain outside the penalty area – that will really help us get back to normality won’t it?
‘Society cannot exist unless a controlling power upon will and appetite be placed somewhere, and the less of it there is within, the more there must be without..’ Edmund Burke
The last time FF, FG and labour told us to vote ‘Yes for jobs’ unfortunately there was not enough room on the posters for the word ‘losses’
If they put a discount for cheap travel to australia or Canada they might have a chance of a yes vote.
Let’s look at yes for Jobs objectively. The Lisbon treaty came into law in December 2009, over a year after the property bubble burst and recession. So no matter how many job it might have created it wouldn’t make up for the hundreds of thousands laid off in construction.
So did it create jobs? Well there’s no way to be sure BUT exports have been booming and balance of payments hit an all time high last year. It’s the domestic market that is bad. On balance I’m inclined to think there were jobs created.
The Lisbon treaty was a housekeeping exercise that tied up the details of precious treaties so how therefore did it create any jobs? Perhaps it was the magic eu pixie dust?
Sorry previous not precious!!
Joseph. Funnily I do agree with you. The point I’m making is this… people are saying the Lisbon treaty was signed, then things went to shít so therefore the Lisbon treaty is to blame. I’m simply pointing out that if you look at the flip side of that, then exports are booming so I can say yes for jobs is true equally well.
True but when campaigning there was an element of job creation implied somewhat spuriously by the yes campaign and some people were naïve enough to believe it and so that has lead to a negative implication which they want to take out on the eu as opposed to the yes campaign. That said I will be voting no in this referendum but for different reasons to that.
Also most peoples measure of job creation is a drop in the numbers on the live register, taking into account emigration, and not a few jobs in export to counterbalance wide scale job losses everywhere else
Untrue Gary
People are saying that the politicians told porkies – that they said the Lisbon treaty will protect jobs & the economy and THEN things went to shit….. It was pretty stupid of people to change their vote on the foot of such nonsensical claims, but there you have it.
Also there is a net loss of jobs – don’t understand you’re exports comment – unless you’re talking about emigration.
In fairness, the politicians were right about a stronger Europe – well a stronger Germany anyhow.
Recession/property bubble bursts – 2008
Lisbon Treaty – December 2009.
It is completely impossible for the Lisbon treaty to have caused any of the current problems as they happened before it can into effect. Is there something you don’t understand about that?
Indeed…. However you fail to comprehend the issue. So let me state it more clearly.
Lisbon did not cause any of the situation that has since arisen….. (I have never heard anybody argue that position).
However, the politicians stated that voting for Lisbon would secure Jobs, secure the economy and make Europe stronger all of which has not come to pass and was therefore a blatant untruth.
The falsehood of their slogans is heightened by the fact that they did so AFTER the crash, when people were extremely worried about what was happening and the only way was down.
It’s been suggested in the UK a few times that Ireland could take Sterling. The big difference to the Eurozone would be that the Irish government would have some say in interest rates rather than them being dictated by what’s best for Germany.
Anyone interested?
This might be a very useful place to end up. The problem is how to get there and specifically how to leave the Euro without causing a massive run on the Irish Banks.
Actually, no. I’m interested in using currency that is issued as an item of value and without interest, not an item of interest-bearing debt. I’m tired of paying a substantial slice of the product of my labour to a bunch of parasites who do precious little other than run fancy printing presses and mainframe computers.
I am very pro-European and I am against voting for this treaty in its current form. yet again it gives power to the unelected European Council and not to our elected representatives, the European Parliament that on balance does fantastic work. So I suggest voting no and telling your TD why: make it more democratic.
A lot of scorn is heaped on the EU for being undemocratic and this criticism is valid. So let’s change it.
Enda stood in the street in Washington and in an interview said that we could borrow from the Federal reserve if we needed.
I thought at the time that this was an opening salvo across the bows of the Bundesbank and that we were starting to stand up.
But it just went away and I wonder why.
The truth is that we need money to fund our overspend anyway and we have to get that from somewhere.
Our government will not reveal the options open to us other than the Euro one.
For that we should vote No and force our politicos out into the open where we can see all the alternatives, for they do exist.
It will be resounding Yes vote.
Forget the militant opinions on the internet that suggest that the Irish people will reject the treaty- very unlikely. The avearge Irish voter is privy to the happenings in Greece and the vilification they have faced from Brussels and Berlin.
Unlike previous referenda, an Irish NO vote does not stop the progress or process of the fiscal “inter-governmental” treaty. As long as 12 member states ratify the treaty, then it becomes operational regardless of the ratification outcomes in Ireland or any other member country. Life goes on! It just means that in the “inevitable” event that Ireland is unable to access the bond markets in the medium- long term, it finds itself in a bigger conundrum than present unplatable economic circumstances.
Ireland will have to then rely on the IMF and other ” generous” donors to survive as an economy; an event that will either lead to even more punitive measures or an opportunity to grow internally outside the EU fiscal compact – most likely a combination of both.
It is just a perfect synopisis of getting stuck between a rock and a hard place.
This referendum vote is about as pointless as this “column”.
People WILL vote no because FG/Labour have continously lied to us. They just an extension on crony-led FF.
That would b a ecaminical matter!!!!
So youre all for book balancing measures – just not yet?
And what exactly do we do in the meantime?
If we spend more than we have – which we do – and we refuse to bring them into line – which we do – then we have to make up the shortfall.
How – we borrow. From who? The guys youre now telling we wont adhere to sound fiscal policy – or at least we wont yet.
Youre whole premise is based on the assumption that Europe will continue to lend to us at the current rate or even an improved rate. What if they dont? What if telling them we’re not prepared to commit to sensible fiscal planning results in their telling is that money will be reduced? Youll really see austerity then. Forget a 3.6billion adjustment – what if we have to double that or treble it?
The whole No argument is predicated on the basis that Europe will continue to fund us.
You are addressing individuals Felix who have a poor understanding of basic and global economics.
Maybe a different approach would be helpful.
Any YES voters care to answer any of the following questions posted by Brian Lucey recently?
How would the existence of the fiscal compact have prevented the Irish economic collapse, given that we would (debt levels apart) have been pretty much within the terms of the criteria? Our problem on the fiscal side was that we were badly balanced in terms of the makeup of the tax base and clientilist in our expenditure.
How exactly will a structural deficit be estimated, given that there is no consistent method for so doing and that it is dependent on in essence a backcast of what the economy might have been at were it growing at capacity? What models and approved by whom will be used to estimate the economic dynamics? What if the ESRI say we are in balance, the ECB say we are not, the OECD say maybe, and the IMF say we might be if their model is right…? Who arbitrates..?
Given that the implied dynamics of the fiscal compact on sovereign debt are that it will radically shrink, what are the knockon effects and how will they be handled in terms of pension and investment funds which will now have to either move to other low risk assets with the danfer of igniting bubbles therein or take more risk with the consequent dangers to pension funding (private and public).?
Would the existence of the FC have prevented the taking on of the bank debts, in 2008, given the effect which that had on the fiscal side? If this is so how can the FC be squared with the evident desire by the ECB to not see banks fail?
Given that if you exceed the terms of the Fiscal Compact you will be fined up to 0.1% GDP, will that not lead to a exceeding-fine-exceeding spiral?
Given that in general Fiscal policy is taken as the taxation and expenditure elements of government as they interact with the economy, and that this is in essence a state level spending side only treaty, when can we expect common movement on either state level taxation or community level transfer payments to offset the pro cyclicality of this pact ?
If this is ‘a vote on the euro’ what mechanism wil be used to remove us from the euro zone? What treaty, what section?
Given that the government have already stated that the talk of a second bailout (aka being in the ESM) is ‘ludicrous’, and that the only sanction mentioned in the FC is not being able to access same ESM if one does not sign up, what is the downside of saying ‘hmm, no, not quite what we need thanks’?
Let us assume the Fiscal Compact has no value. Let us assume that Ireland votes No and stays in the Euro. Let us assume the Irish Government can borrow what it needs to fund the deficit and its maturing debt at ‘normal market rates’ and ergo, no 2nd bailout is needed.
Given all those assumptions, the problem reduces to: Will the ECB continue to fund Irish banks into Basel 3 and beyond? If the answer is No then Irish Banks are finished. Electronic payments/transfers, ATMs, credit facilities all stop working.
Is Basel 3 even in effect yet? There is no chance the ECB will let us or our banking system fail.. We may have to borrow funds at a higher rate elsewhere but ATMs and money will not run out.. This is just another example of scaremongering.
I think we both agree the Fiscal Compact will achieve little and certainly not solve the core problem.
I am not trying to scare anybody. However, the ECB have said no further funding for non-fiscal compact countries when present arrangements expire. This, in my opinion, makes the Banks are the Achilles Heel of the No argument. Maybe the ECB won’t execute the threat but the risk makes the downside of voting No much greater than the downside of voting Yes.
Basel 3 makes the Banks’ position gets even worse and hence they will be on life-support for the next five/ten years.
Were on the roller coaster now so somehow I see a yes vote. Call it world war 3 Germany taking over again except this time without guns and nice to see the old foe Britian isn’t falling for it. Let’s face it were just plebs.
have your say