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MICHAEL D HIGGINS isn’t saying whether he wants a second term as president just yet – but either way, we’re due a presidential election next year.
There’s always the possibility that Higgins, who remains popular with the electorate, will simply be appointed to a second term.
Already, though, one Oireachtas member has declared an interest in forcing an election.
It’s also likely other potential candidates have been trying to shore up support behind the scenes.
So how likely is an election in 2018? And who’s likely to be on the ballot?
Here’s how things are looking right now…
Political science lecturer at DCU Eoin O’Malley reckons an Áras race next autumn is “almost certain”.
Sinn Féin have certainly indicated that they want to run a candidate, and I think because of the makeup of the Dáil, there are so many small groups and independents that it shouldn’t be that difficult to get the requisite number of votes.
Candidates need the backing of at least 20 Oireachtas members – members of the Dáil or Seanad – in order to get on the ballot. Alternatively they can go the council route, and secure the backing of four local authorities.
Sinn Féin currently has 23 seats in the Dáil, so would be able to nominate a candidate if they so desired. In case you missed it, Gerry Adams has already said he has no interest. The late Martin McGuinness picked up 13.7% of the vote in 2011.
In short, no.
Michael D Higgins was inaugurated as President of Ireland on 11 November 2011, meaning his seven year term would come to an end on 11 November 2018.
If we are to have an election next year it must be held within 60 days of that date – so the earliest we could have an election is in mid-September.
Michael D has said he’s not going to announce whether he’ll run for the presidency until September.
So we could have a scenario whereby we have one or more declared candidates, and an incumbent office-holder who still hasn’t told voters his intentions.
“He can automatically nominate himself so he just has to put in his name on the ballot before the deadline,” O’Malley said.
He could make it till August or September without declaring whether he wants to or not.
O’Malley said it was possible Higgins could bring forward his planned announcement date if media speculation becomes too intense.
It’s also possible he could let it be known privately whether he intends to run or not, so that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil aren’t scrambling around at the last minute trying to find prospective nominees.
Okay, there are a couple of scenarios here…
If we get to September and there’s only one person nominated for the presidency, and then Michael D announces he will not contest the election, that person would go forward and become president without an election.
Were that to happen, however, it’s likely other parties would get together and nominate at least one other candidate.
Said O’Malley:
I think that’s why Michael D may come under pressure to confirm sooner so Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael don’t have to go around looking for candidates.
Almost two-thirds of voters (64%) said they would like President Higgins to remain in office in a recent poll. He’s widely regarded as a good ambassador for the country, and handles State occasions well.
If he opts to go for a second term, Higgins may scare off potential candidates who might otherwise throw their hat in the ring.
He’s unlikely to get involved in the nitty-gritty of campaigning, however.
There’s precedent for this – but you have to go a long way back for a comparable situation. O’Malley noted that in 1966 an elderly Eamon de Valera (he was 83) contested the election without campaigning widely.
More recently, Patrick Hillery and Mary McAleese were elected to second terms unopposed.
For the record, Higgins did publicly declare back in 2011 that he would serve one term only. He’s been rather less definitive on the issue in recent years, however.
Fine Gael are widely expected to back Higgins for a second term if he decides he wants one.
“Fine Gael will consider the matter of the Presidential Election when President Michael D Higgins makes his intentions known,” a party spokesperson told us via email.
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin told us the party doesn’t “have a candidate considered”, adding:
I have been very reluctant to comment on the presidential election too early out because I actually do believe … in an old-fashioned way, that the dignity of the office allows the incumbent to conduct their duties in that space.
It’s thought that some party bosses may not want to go to the expense of challenging Higgins. However, according to a story published in the Irish Independent last Saturday, an overwhelming majority (94%) of councillors want a Fianna Fáil candidate in the race.
Miriam O’Callaghan and former news anchor Anne Doyle were among the names proposed by the councillors, according to the paper.
Labour, for the record, said it was entirely a matter for President Higgins to decide, and that if he ran for a second term he would have the party’s complete support.
We also asked Sinn Féin for their official position:
The party has not come to a decision on the matter as yet. We do believe however that President Michael D Higgins has performed admirably in office.
As for the smaller parties, the Greens said they had made no decision on the issue as yet. Solidarity-PBP didn’t respond to an email, nor did the Social Democrats. The Independent Alliance, as we expected, said they didn’t make decisions on issues like that as a group as they weren’t a formal party.
Aside from Higgins himself the only other declared candidate is independent senator Gerard Craughwell, who made his intentions known in August of this year.
Craughwell, a former president of the Teachers’ Union of Ireland, thinks Higgins is doing a “fabulous job” as president.
That’s besides the point, he said.
I am putting my name forward to ensure there is an election. Michael D Higgins gave his word when he was a candidate for president that he would only sit one term.
Roscommon-South Leitrim TD Micheal Fitzmaurice has said he would be open to running if no other independent candidate comes forward, while senator and Aer Arann founder Pádraig Ó Céidigh said he had been approached about running and wasn’t ruling himself out.
Bertie Ahern has left the door open to running. “God knows what will happen next year,” he told Sky News in a recent appearance to talk about Brexit. The former Taoiseach is likely still regarded as politically toxic by Fianna Fáil, however, so it’s probably unlikely he’ll manage to get on the ballot via the Oireachtas route.
RTÉ presenter Miriam O’Callaghan, who was on the Fianna Fáil councillors’ list mentioned above, has long been linked with the presidency, but is seen as unlikely to run against Higgins.
Campaigner David Hall of the Irish Mortgage Holders Organisation expressed an interest in the job recently – and you can expect any number of former and current politicians, sports stars, business people, activists, actors and musicians to be asked about their interest in the coming months.
Really though, it’s too soon to say who else might be interested – we’ll know a lot more in a few month’s time.
If you’re interested, you must be an Irish citizen and aged over 35 to run.
The job comes with a few perks (a house, use of a car or two – that kind of thing) and a salary in the area of €250,000. Which is a pretty nice area.
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Rinne an Uachtaráin Ó hUiginn jab maith ach tá sé róshean do téarma eile. Tá fuil úr uainn.
President Higgins has done a good job but he’s too old for another term. We need fresh blood.
Mar sin féin, bhféadfadh sé a rá “YOLO” agus tabhair faoi.
In saying that, he might just say YOLO and go for it.
@TheJournalAsGaeilge:
Higgins has been a stool pigeon. Sucking up like tax avoiding champagne socialites do. FG will put forward Pinocchio Kenny or Bazz Walsh the misogynist. Bazz is in their jeans.
@TheJournalAsGaeilge: I think Michael D has done an OK job as Pres (not great, not bad). However, his backing out of his own commitments for one term and keeping others in the dark about his intentions risks damaging his legacy as a principled politician. Suggestions of enjoying the trough too much to walk away will also abound.
@TheJournalAsGaeilge: Never stopped Kenny from going on and on and on and OOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNN.
The obvious candidate who you haven’t mentioned is Gerry Adams, like him or not, he will probably win.
@Gavin O’Brien: he has already stated thst he wouldnt put his name forward
@Gavin O’Brien: they did mentions n him. Did you read it?
@Gavin O’Brien: Really, the face of Ireland around the world? You are delusional, to say the least. Adams wouldnt be fit to lick the boots of any former President of the State. A liar, or at best suffering from Alzheimer’s.
@Gavin O’Brien: nope. No presidential election or elections full
stop. We’re a little (island) Ireland don’t forget and thriving like Haley’s comet!
Mickey D looks like he’s just going through the motions up there. We need a new president.
@Adrian: Dermot Bannon, the architect. He is a fine bit of gear and has loads of charm.
Mickey D shouldn’t scare anyone away from running if he wants to go again. Its appears that mickey D is scared as he wants another term but doesn’t want any competition.
@Adrian: I wish we had a president that has no links to FF, FG or Labour. These parties have effed up the country so many times, i’d be glad to see the back of them.
@Adrian:
Also he only won because of RTE , and that tweet, he was way behind in the polls but a darling of the media who facilitated his election
@Mary King: plus the fact that no one in their right mind voted for the FF Muppet, whoever it was
Michael D is v.good Pres but i feel we need a much younger person to portray and represent our Country as it is i.e a vibrant modern model democracy to the forefront of the technological revolution which is only at commencement stage. We cannot sit on our laurels. People only give their best in the first term anyway. They run out of ideas and energy and drive and enthusiasm , not their fault. Its just a natural thing. Look at some Ceos who have been around too long.
@John Deed: Good for what exactly.
@Martin Ryan: Has represented the country well at home and abroad and given leadership on certain issues when it was required.
@John Deed: Leadership on what issues? the water charges ? against the wishes of the irish people who he is supposed to represent and yes he could have done something about it…stood down.He is Nothing but a political puppet as will any future president be.
Will it be fraudulent like the last one. The last thing we need is another media pet.
I’m available, if successful I will be making the Aras available to the Homeless.
The Gate Lodge will be more than adequate for my means and the Bandstand for State Occasions.
Maybe Paul Hewson could retroactively register himself in the Republic of Ireland, pay all taxes due, and win the presidency with flying colours and universal admiration.
@Mick Tobin: Paul Hewson does all of the above. Don’t worry about actual facts.
Who gives 2 hoops
@John Rag Scales: I do.
Surprised Sinn Fein are supporting Michael D…….Would have thought Gerry Adams time has come to run for presidency….Gerry’s friend congressman Peter King is close to Trump…Gerry Adams is well known abroad….
@John003: abroaders can’t vote for him
@John003: Gerry Adams, seriously? To represent Ireland abroad? Or anywhere… a liar at best and a severe victim of Alzheimer’s..not fit to lick the boots of any former President of this State.
@GerryCummins: be better than Robinson,threw in the towel so she could get the UN job.Ungrateful cow.
@John003:
Adams if known abroad is associated with terrorism.. This would not be good publicity for Ireland as a place to do business.
McGuinness thought he had it in the bag but didn’t make it. If he had instead of no Stormont we would have had a constitutional crisis in the South at the whim of the Belfast mafia.
I’m not impressed with Higgins and would like to have a choice. He could repeat his last victory as the best of a bad lot.
Saw Phil Coulter in concert recently and thought to myself, he’s.not just a brilliant musican, he carries himself very well and then had a brilliant thought ‘He would make a fabulous president and wife Geraldine would be a lovely first lady. It should not be political.
@C_O’S: no.
Get rid of the Commie. He’s a leftover from the Cold War, which his fachist ilk lost. I couldn’t care less who replaces him. He/she couldn’t be worse.
Bertie and Miriam for Mr and Mrs President.
@Paul Matthews: That should be Mr and Madam President perhaps….
Please Bertie Ahern ,do run for the Presidency,just for the entertainment it would give us all.
@Brian O Reilly: Bertie V Jarry V Joan V Enda… The nightmare scenario.
Fake news got him elected last time
#tweetgate
Another gross waste of taxpayers hard earned cash thrown away.
John Creedon or Des Cahill. They’d make brilliant presidents. Bertie would be dreadful.
Fake news got him elected last time
#tweetgate
A few feelers going out here!me thinkd
Who’s the horse with?
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