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Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont was happy with yesterday's result. Geert Vanden Wijngaert/PA Images

Explainer: What now for Catalonia after the separatists secured election victory?

Independence is still a distant prospect despite yesterday’s election victory for separatists as Madrid reject appeal for meeting.

Updated at 8.30pm

CATALAN SEPARATISTS SECURED a majority in the region’s snap election yesterday, giving fresh impetus for their independence push and dealing a blow to the Spanish government.

The ousted Catalan president Carles Puigdemont is currently in exile in Belgium, and has demanded to be heard by the EU on the calls for an independent state.

“I only demand to the European Commission or other European institutions, to listen, to listen to the Catalan people, not only the Spanish state,” he told reporters in Brussels.

The Commission has so far supported Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s position on the independence crisis.

“It has the right to sustain the Spanish position but I think it is necessary to listen to all the parties in this conflict. I think the Catalan people has the right to be listened to by the European Commission,” Puigdemont added.

However, it appears Puigdemont’s appeal has fallen, once again, on deaf ears, as Rojoy rejected the call to meet him, as he warned the new Catalan government should fully respect the law.

Speaking at a press conference, Rajoy said he would try to make an effort to hold talks with the new Catalan government. However, he didn’t clarify if he would meet with Puigdemont.

“The person I should be meeting with is with the one who won the elections, and that is Mrs Arrimadas.”

With Puigdemont’s play for EU support, and tense comments from Madrid, what will happen in Catalonia after these elections?

Why were these elections important?

Madrid had called yesterday’s vote after secessionists declared independence on October 27, amid Spain’s worst political crisis since democracy was reinstated following dictator Franco’s death in 1975.

The vote was widely seen as a moment of truth on the independence question, a hugely divisive issue for the wealthy northern region, that has rattled a Europe already shaken by Brexit.

But with the secessionists maintaining their parliamentary majority, the move to call snap polls appeared to backfire against Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who had sacked the regional government and dissolved its parliament.

Independence remains a very contentious issue in the region, however, and this was clearly demonstrated with the pro-Spanish unity party Ciudadanos securing the most number of seats for any one party with 37.

Unless the three pro-independence lists fail to clinch a deal to work together in the coming months, however, they will govern Catalonia with 70 seats – two less than their previous tally.

So what happens now?

First of all, the three independence parties need to work together to secure that overall parliament majority.

This will be far from simple.

The leader of the movement, Puigdemont, isn’t in the country and will surely be arrested for an outstanding warrant if and when he returns to Spain.

Other independence leaders, including Puigdemont’s former deputy Oriol Junqueras, are behind bars pending trial.

With this leadership void, the independence movement is at risk of failing to get its house in order which would mean a return to the polls.

“The biggest loser of election night was the People’s Party (PP) of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, which obtained only three seats,” said Antonio Barroso, a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence in London.

It is unclear whether Puigdemont will be able to be re-appointed… as he will be arrested if he comes back to Spain. As a result, the investiture process will be far from straightforward, and the risk of new elections in 2018 remains high. The investiture of a new first minister is likely to be a protracted and noisy process.

If it does manage to rule parliament, then the question of independence becomes high on the agenda again.

But, rather than having another vote like in October, it is expected that the separatists will try to enter negotiations with Madrid.

For all the talk that the separatist cause had been legitimised, analysts predict a softening around the edges of the independence bid.

The Catalan business elite, some of whose members have close links with Puigdemont’s party, “know that they have to give a fresh boost to tourism and the economy”, sociologist Narciso Michavila told AFP.

The Spanish government, however, may not so forthcoming with tough rhetoric from Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his party.

Pablo Casado of Rajoy’s PP party warned the separatists that “whatever new government rules the region, (the separatists) know the consequences for breaking the law”. He has repeatedly said there can be no talks unless separatists abandon their independence drive.

At stake in the crisis is the economy of a region that has seen its tourism sector suffer and more than 3,100 companies – including the largest banks, utilities and insurers – move their legal headquarters out of Catalonia.

Yesterday’s election was victory for the separatist  movement in Catalonia, but there is still a long way to go before their goal of a State independent of Spain can be achieved.

With reporting from AFP

Read: Catalan separatists win absolute parliamentary majority

Read: Catalonia: Ex-parliament speaker spends night in jail for involvement in independence drive

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34 Comments
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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 1:43 PM

    It’s hard to believe that the author didn’t mention that pro independent parties between them were a couple of percent short of 50%.

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    Mute Skinnerbot
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:26 PM

    @lavbeer: did they not take 70 out of 135 seats? Which is 52% of the seats by my maths?

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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:48 PM

    @Skinnerbot: yes this wasn’t a referendum – but a popular vote wouldn’t have been passed. More voted for non-independence parties. The article unless the author was pushing an agenda should have stated such a basic fact. Imho- I am no expert.

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    Mute Skinnerbot
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:56 PM

    @lavbeer: same with trump no? It’s quite trivial in a way given it led to 52% of the seats. Only 1 in every 3 votes agree with Fine Gaels policies here, funny thing democracy

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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 10:15 PM

    @Skinnerbot: true enough but if it was a referendum it wouldn’t have carried.

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    Dec 23rd 2017, 6:18 AM

    @Declan Hegarty: bottom line is that three pro independence parties got 47.5 of the vote a few months after getting over 90 in a referendum that SF didn’t call out as being flawed (other than the actions of the Spanish police). Did they miss something?

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    Mute Donal Hanley
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    Dec 24th 2017, 12:28 PM

    @lavbeer:
    The headline is not just misleading. It is incorrect.

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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 1:51 PM

    Without a change to the Spanish Constitution, Catalonia could a popular vote of 100% for independence and legally it would mean nothing. It would be like Cork voting unanimously to repeal the 8th amendment. Without a referenda the vote would not be legal. As in Spain any Constitutional changes require a national referendum.

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    Mute Seán Ó Briain
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 2:54 PM

    @Mick Jordan: Cork isn’t an autonomous region with its own parliament, language and culture. There is a precedent set for nationhood. Catalonia meets all of them.

    So your comparison to Cork is not remotely relevant.

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    Mute Thomas Harrington
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 3:03 PM

    @Seán Ó Briain: says you! Totally has its own language does Cork

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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 3:11 PM

    @Seán Ó Briain: Cork has a County Council which is elected, it can pass local by-laws, can raise finances through rates etc so it is very relevant as it is nothing more than a smaller version of the Catalan Parliament,. Catalonia’s Parliament is subservient to the National Parliament in Madrid as are all the other regional governments in Spain. Catalonia agreed to and signed up to the Spanish Constitution and is now legally obliged to abide by that Constitution.

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    Mute Seán Ó Briain
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 3:46 PM

    @Mick Jordan: Cork County Council is not comparable to the levels of autonomy that the Catalan parliament had. Nor is Cork as an area comparable for a claim of statehood that Catalonia has.

    Scotland signed up the the union (albeit on questionable circumstances), and were still afforded a vote on independence. The UK had the courage to allow them one in the spirit of democracy. Spain doesn’t have similar levels of faith in its union.

    If the majority of the people in Catalonia aspire for independence, that desire should be acknowledge by the Spanish government.

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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:20 PM

    @Seán Ó Briain: Catalonia signed up to this constitution only 40 years ago. And the result clearly shows there isn’t an overall desire to break off. Gunther and his ilk need to step back and start convincing their own people and get a 60-65 which would give them a platform. The 90% “referendum”‘was shown as a farce – endorsed by the SF people on the ground also.

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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:33 PM

    @Seán Ó Briain: What claim of Statehood does Catalonia have. It was never a nation in its own right. It was previously an integral part of the Kingdom of Aragon, prior to that part of the Frankish kingdom of Charlemagne and before that a part of a Roman Frontier Provence. And now is an integral part of the Spanish State. In 1975 Catalans agreed to and signed up to all the terms and conditions of the Spanish Constitution. And one of those conditions was that the Spanish State as it currently is, is indivisible. And now that some Catalans wish to change that, they must seek a change in the Spanish Constitution (that they are a signatory to) to legally allow cessation.

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    Mute Seán Ó Briain
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:49 PM

    @Mick Jordan: ” What claim of Statehood does Catalonia have.”

    What claim does any arbitrary piece of land and people have to statehood? Catalonia has its own language, its own parliament, its own culture – and the wish for the majority of the people living there to be independent.

    Borders are dynamic. They change over time. At present, the people within the recognised borders of the region of Catalonia wish to be independent. That’s a pretty valid claim. And if Spain actually had the courage to allow them a referendum without using political violence to crack down on them – we would be able to answer that question once and for all.

    This whole argument is going over your head. It’s a waste of time and energy to repeat it ad nauseum with you.

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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 5:05 PM

    @Seán Ó Briain: It has its own Parliament because the Nation of Spain permits it to have it just as the Dail here permits County and City Councils. But they, as with the Catalonian Parliament are only there at the sufferance of the National Parliment. And the results of the vote are also clear 51.5% of the Popular vote was for Spanish Unity with the Independence Vote receiving 48.5%.

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    Mute @mdmak33
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 2:20 PM

    Independence vote has been justified,but like brexit,the EU elites will do their best to block it.

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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 2:28 PM

    @@mdmak33: justified by getting less than 50% ? How do you make that out?

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    Mute Thomas Harrington
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    Dec 23rd 2017, 8:35 AM

    @lavbeer: to be fair the main leaders of the Independence Party are locked up or in exile and the Spanish govt shut down pro independence newspapers and websites / so the result is an amazing one / viva Cataluyna!

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    Mute Fiona deFreyne
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 2:04 PM

    This referendum result may now enable sensible negotiations to commence.

    Any attempted secession lacks legitimacy. There is now good reason for each side to engage meaningfully with the other, mediated by a third party broker.

    There are degrees of autonomy. There is plenty of scope for a solution.

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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 2:20 PM

    @Fiona deFreyne: Even if the Central Government wanted to allow Catalonian Independence, it is not legally in their power to grant it. It is a Constitutional issue. And that requires a national referendum to alter the part that states “All of Spain is indivisible”, to allow regions to ceceed. So Catalonian Independence is a pipe dream unless the Constitution is changed.

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    Mute Pat Cbar
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 7:11 PM

    @Mick Jordan: by that reckoning we should still be part of the UK.

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    Mute Mick Jordan
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 8:25 PM

    @Pat Cbar: How do you make that out? We, Scotland, or Wales never agreed to or signed up to a UK constitution declaring that the UK is or was indivisible. Hence the Scottish Independence Referndum. When Ireland was part of the UK it was only so by a Parlimentry Act (Enacted by Henry VIII an English King) in which we Irish had no hand or act in. Catalonia on the other hand was an original part of the Kingdom of Aragon that United with the Kingdom of Castille to form what we now know as modern Spain. And after the death of Franco when a new constitution was being written with the input from every region of Spain, Catalonia agreed with and signed up to that new Consitution. Now that 48.5% of the Catalonian population desire independence does not negate the Constitution they signed.

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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 1:54 PM

    Did Puigdemont or Junqueras run in this election? 70 out of 135 maybe 68 if they can’t show – still a majority barely. The case for independence wasn’t confirmed despite actions of the police and Madrid government plus a high turnout. breathing space is needed. Maybe it’s time for reconciliation of some sort?

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    Mute lavbeer
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 4:49 PM

    @lavbeer: of anyone know?

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    Mute Anthony Byrne
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 2:00 PM

    This can only end badly.

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    Mute Stephen Maher
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    Dec 22nd 2017, 1:49 PM

    Separatists?

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    Mute Cian Omahony Snr
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    Dec 23rd 2017, 2:24 AM

    how can say this without being attacked..as a sports fan i love Barca..and i am trying to understand the whole situation from both sides ..but the leader says i demand the UN. Maybe i am totally wrong ,why not say ” I ask”does it alway have to be agressive speak…there is so much agression in the world..I am gettiing old and still naive to think that we can have a beautiful world ..maybe we can

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