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ON TUESDAY, THE Save the 8th Campaign launched a new campaign in relation to the upcoming referendum on abortion.
The national campaign to defeat the referendum on the Eighth Amendment involves two billboard posters which are being put up across the country.
The Save the 8th campaign said in a press release:
The billboards, launched after consultation with Disability Voices for Life, a group representing families that include somebody with a disability, reveal on [sic] the shocking increase in the numbers of abortions carried out, and the heart-breaking rate of babies with Down syndrome being aborted, after abortion was legalised in Britain.
Save the 8th adds:
The billboards capture some stark facts that are being hidden from the debate. One quotes the shocking statistic that 1 in every 5 babies is aborted in Britain, while the other features Joseph Cronin, a Donegal boy with Down syndrome, and gives a human face to the heart breaking fact that 90% of babies with the condition have their lives ended before birth in other jurisdictions.
One of the posters says:
In Britain, 90% of babies with Down Syndrome are aborted.
On this poster, the quote has a source (on the bottom right-hand side) beneath it: 2013 Bruce Enquiry (sic).
This appears to refer to a 2013 independent report into abortion on the grounds of disability, which was carried out by a cross-party group of MPs chaired by Fiona Bruce, a Conservative MP. She is the former chair of an informal cross-party British parliamentary pro-life group.
Though the report is called a ‘parliamentary inquiry’, it is not an official government inquiry.
The Bruce inquiry report includes this line (words in bold are its emphasis):
A considerable amount of evidence was presented on the experience of expecting a child with Down’s Syndrome: approximately 90% of babies with a definite diagnosis of Down’s Syndrome are aborted; about 30% of births of children with Down’s Syndrome have no prenatal diagnosis.
It appears that the Save the 8th campaign billboard is quoting from this line.
However, the source material (pointed out in a footnote) to this line is the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR) for England and Wales 2010 Annual Report.
This footnote reads:
After the prenatal diagnosis of Down’s Syndrome 91% of affected pregnancies are terminated and 9% are continued. Some of the continued pregnancies miscarry naturally, some end as still births, and approximately 6% of prenatal diagnosis of Down’s Syndrome end in live births. Quoted from page 4 of Morris JK, The National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register for England and Wales 2010 Annual Report. Queen Mary University of London, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry 2011 and Professor Joan Morris, Oral Evidence Session 4, pages 82-3
As the source material for the data quoted on the Save the 8th poster is not strictly the ‘Bruce’ inquiry but in fact the NDSCR, we will be dealing with the latter report.
The NDSCR annual report does not use the word “babies” or “baby“, but refers to “prenatal diagnosis” and uses the words “pregnancies” and “fetal”.
The use of the word ‘baby’ is significant as there is currently a case before the Supreme Court on the meaning of the word ‘unborn’ in the Constitution.
A ruling by the High Court in 2016 found that references to the “unborn” in the Constitution meant an unborn child. Now the Supreme Court is to examine the ruling, in which judge Richard Humphreys ruled that the use of the word “unborn” in Bunreacht na hÉireann meant an “unborn child”, with the unborn’s rights extending beyond the right to life.
While the Supreme Court wrestles with this, currently the word ‘baby’ is typically used to refer to a child that has been born. Under dictionary definitions, ‘baby’ refers to an ‘extremely young child’.
In essence, while the poster uses the word ‘baby’, what it really means is ‘unborn child’ or ‘foetus’.
However, the Save the 8th campaign told TheJournal.ie:
Everyone describes their preborn child as a baby.
As we will see, the poster also refers to “babies with Down Syndrome”, although what it is referring to is a percentage of pregnancies given a prenatal diagnosis of Down Syndrome.
The 90% termination rate in the NDSCR report and the billboard poster only refers to prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome.
The data shows that not all children with Down syndrome in England and Wales are diagnosed prenatally.
On page 7 of The NDSCR for England and Wales 2010 Annual Report, it says:
In 2010, 1,868 Down syndrome diagnoses were made, 1,188 (64%) prenatally and 680 (36%) postnatally
In the 2010 report, of the 680 cases where Down syndrome was diagnosed postnatally, there were 651 live births and 29 still births/foetal deaths.
There were 1,188 that were diagnosed prenatally. Out of this, 942 pregnancies were terminated; there were 63 live births; 37 still births/miscarriage; and 195 with an ‘unknown outcome’.
The report says that 6% of those with ‘unknown outcomes’ are likely to result in a live birth.
So the 90% referred to in the poster is 90% of those diagnosed prenatally.*
The NDSCR annual reports show that every year, not all diagnoses of Down syndrome are made prenatally.
But of these prenatal diagnoses, the vast majority are terminated:
For example:
(*Just to note – you’ll see that these numbers don’t add up to a 90% termination rate or over for prenatal diagnosis. This is because at the time the report was published, the registry did not have the full numbers, it says. However, the reports all project a termination rate of prenatal diagnoses for the specific year, based on the rate in previous years, and they are always 90% or above – you can read all of the annual reports here.)
What we can’t infer at this point is whether these outcomes in England and Wales would be reflected to the same percentage in Ireland, should abortion legislation allow terminations up to 12 weeks (the timeframe which has been put forward by the Eighth Amendment Committee).
This is due to a number of factors.
Firstly, the timing of tests for Down syndrome.
The HSE says that ideally, people will have antenatal screenings by the end of the first trimester, which is 13 weeks and six days. Most women are screened between 11 to 13 weeks, and screenings are possible up to 20 weeks of pregnancy.
Down Syndrome Ireland says that:
Sometimes babies with Down syndrome are identified during pregnancy as a result of pre-natal tests. In the majority of cases, the presence of Down syndrome is identified soon after birth from the baby’s clinical features and confirmed with a blood test.
There are two types of diagnostic tests – chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and amniocentesis. Of the two, CVS can be performed after 10 weeks of pregnancy. Approximately one woman in 100 will have a miscarriage after having either of these tests.
However, testing is continuing to get better in this area.
For example the NIPT test for Down Syndrome, which is offered by the NHS in the UK, tests cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA), which comes from the placenta. An NHS factsheet says that cffDNA “reaches the required level needed to test for Down syndrome by 10 weeks’ gestation in most pregnancies”.
With regard to Irish women currently travelling abroad, the Irish Independent reported this week that 83 Irish women ended their pregnancy over Down syndrome over the period of two years.
Because not all diagnoses of Down syndrome are given prenatally, we simply cannot say at this point if in Ireland the rate of termination in every case of Down syndrome diagnosis would be 90%.
By comparison, in the USA, according to a study of 24 studies on the topic:
The weighted mean termination rate was 67% (range: 61%–93%) among seven population-based studies, 85% (range: 60%–90%) among nine hospital-based studies, and 50% (range: 0%–100%) among eight anomaly-based studies. Evidence suggests that termination rates have decreased in recent years. Termination rates also varied with maternal age, gestational age, and maternal race/ethnicity.
In answer to an email query, the Save the 8th campaign said that the statistic on the poster:
comes from the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register for England and Wales [2013]
This is an annual report by the same people who carried out the 2010 report that is referenced in the inquiry report chaired by Fiona Bruce MP, just for a different year.
The outcomes are similar in the two reports – in 2013, it says that the termination rate for prenatally-diagnosed Down syndrome remains high:
The proportion of women having a termination after a prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome has decreased from 92% in 1989-2010 to 90% in 2011, 2012 and 2013.
So although the billboard poster itself refers to the 2013 Bruce Enquiry (sic), their report itself refers to the 2010 NDSCR report.
And the details differ very little between this and the 2013 NDSCR report which the Save the 8th campaign referred us to in answer to our query about the source for the statistic.
The termination rate in prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome is at least 90% in both reports.
The NDSCR for England and Wales‘s final report was in 2014. That year, 65% of all diagnoses of Down syndrome in England and Wales were made prenatally. There were 1,886 diagnoses of Down syndrome in those countries that year.
The majority – 78% – were diagnosed after the first trimester in England, compared to 26% in Wales.
Is the statement on the billboard correct?
The statement on the billboard poster is:
In Britain, 90% of babies with Down Syndrome are aborted.
On a basic level, the statement does not clarify that the 90% rate refers to prenatally diagnosed Down syndrome.
In order to be fully correct, the poster could say:
In England and Wales, 90% of pregnancies with prenatally diagnosed Down syndrome are terminated.
The statistic of 90% is correct when referring to prenatally diagnosed Down syndrome.
However, this is not a clarification available to members of the public passing by these billboards.
TheJournal.ie’s FactCheck is a signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles. You can read it here. For information on how FactCheck works, what the verdicts mean, and how you can take part, check out our Reader’s Guide here. You can read about the team of editors and reporters who work on the factchecks here.
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Steady figures. Keep up the good work.
The numbers are going in the right direction. RIP to those who have lost their lives. As hard as it is, keep sticking to the rules… we are nearly there.
@Olive Whyte: The Tallaght testing centre was the busiest I have ever seen it yesterday since testing started hope that ain’t a sign
@Happy entertainment: Hopefully not.
@Happy entertainment: I’d say that’s people mistaking their annual hay fever for symptoms. It’s not even a pandemic anymore.
@Happy entertainment: More testing in itself is a good thing. It all depends on the results.
@Happy entertainment: prob hay fever symtoms sending people there.
@Happy entertainment: there was no testing at the tallaght centre mon, tues or today. Must be fewer cases being referred for testing so they are doing them all in one day now rather than spreading them out over 5 days.
@Colm Malone: do you mean its not a pandemic locally or globally?
@Bill Clay: pandemics tend not to be local affairs.
@Happy entertainment: Th roads were the buissiest i’ve seen them too in months. And i’ve been driving to work the whole time. bit worried about what we may see in about 2 weeks time.
@Happy entertainment: just to balance that I’ve heard from someone that tests two places are only doing afternoon testing now as there’s no need for a.m at at present
@Trevor Donoghue: let’s call their bluff if it is a scam we all survive if not we get a cold.
@Colm Malone: It is still capable of being one again and that is why it should not be taken that it is done and dusted
5th worst per capita in the world, New Zealand is better than us, US is better than us,Cheltenham was the governments fault, Italian tourists, 2 meter rule. Ok, got all the negatives out of the way ( usual ones). Positively. Nice to see it steadying out and going the right way. Sad for those who died and their families.
@John fitzpatrick: praaaaaaatttttttt New York and London far worse than us.
@John fitzpatrick: nonsense moans. Social media mob rubbish about Cheltenham and Italians. Zero proof. I suppose today’s are keelings fault and next week will be leo and his picnics fault. Virus was here since before Christmas and certainly well active in the community before March.
Lunacy comparing us to New Zealand and US. Doesn’t even deserve a response. Stats are totally skewed by how countries report it.
@John fitzpatrick: where did you get 5th?
@John fitzpatrick: No. It’s all down to volume of testing and what countries attribute to death on death cert. The only way we will know exactly how different countries mortality rates will be in 12 months when you can see the % increase in average deaths over a previous 5 year period. Brazil looking to be number one for sure. Many scientists believe the true number of infections in brazil is north of 5 million.
I wouldn’t be so sure about the U.S. Their numbers are SLIGHTLY better, but firstly, they are a couple of weeks behind us as it hit the U.S. a little later, I think, and their numbers haven’t really started coming down yet to the extent ours have, so we should probably be comparing their figures with ours a couple of weeks ago, the way we compared ourselves with Italy a couple of weeks before earlier. Also, I am not sure if they are counting probable deaths, so their death rate may actually be higher if they counted as we did. It’s very hard to compare across countries, given that different countries count deaths differently and different countries are at different places as it arrived in different countries at different times.
@Philip King ⚡️: awwww come guys. I could not find the sarcasm font on here. I was only trying to get all the moans we usually see on here out early. Phillip. It’s a stat usually thrown out here that has been proven wrong many times.
@John fitzpatrick: ahh the old per head of capita nonsense. If other countries were reporting as transparently as us then we would be 15-20th on the list. Can’t have a league table if some teams are not reporting dropped points.
@Philip King ⚡️: he’s talking about the “per capita” figures, which if looked at like that, yes Ireland has fared pretty badly compared to the rest of the world. We have one of the highest number of cases per 100,000, well ahead of other EU countries. We’re certainly in the top 10 most affected countries. You can track it here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases
@Daniel O Sullivan: again it depends hows its reported. We were Including community, hospital, nursing home and also probable deaths. The uk were reporting on hospital deaths at one stage.
@John fitzpatrick: Jo
@John fitzpatrick: john
it is way too early to do comparative stats. all deaths are sad!
@Paul O’Sullivan: he said Per Capita – Not Per Capital. So the figures for New York and London are not what he is comparing to Dublin!. The USA has an approximate population of 331,000,000 with 100,418 deaths – meaning 303deaths per million. Ireland has a population of 4,937,000 with 1639 deaths – meaning 332 deaths per million. clearly, Ireland is worse “Per Capita”.
However, using per capita figures can be misleading. Belgium has a population of 11,460,000 with 9,364 deaths – meaning 817 deaths per million.
In fact Ireland has the 8th highest mortality rate per capita in the world. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
@Brian Madden: yes and there is still some issues about what is being reported when especially as regards in the community. They are sdtill only settin gv and up their track and trace unit.
@John fitzpatrick: I give up, well at least I give up my satire career. Over before it started, shot down in a ball of flames. I have spent weeks saying that stat was not correct and only a stat on reported deaths, not actual deaths. But today I thought I’d mention it before the usual suspects. And just for the record, I don’t blame Cheltenham, the Italians or anyone else. Yesterday someone compared us to the Isle of Man. Ok, into retirement I go.
@John fitzpatrick: Ah ye brat ye.
@Nioe: how would Cheltenham not have had an impact. Italian rugby fans too for that matter?
@Brian Madden: we shouldn’t be comparing to the UK. We should be comparing to countries who have handled it well
@Daniel O Sullivan:
Deaths per 1m pop we are 11th
Cases per 1m pop we are 13th.
@Gary Pheasey: well aware what he was implying, but I’m sick of all that per capita nonsense…. they are only statistics, it means nothing to the individuals that have lost their lives.
Behind every life lost is a personal journey of one person on earth. And we only live once. Statistics especially per capita are useless information…
But a country with 330 million and having 100 000 deaths plus and our small nation having just over 1600 plus it is all immaterial it is a loss of a life, an individual, ……
@John fitzpatrick: for anyone really interested in stats, this link was posted by a journal commenter this morning https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
It is a measure and comparison of death rates and variences over the last few years in European countries. It uses a scoring system to even out population differences. Over the last 16 weeks while our death rate is above the norm Ireland had one of the flattest curves and is regarded as moderate. Most of the other countries have spikes. An interesting point is that reported deaths last week were below our norm.
@John fitzpatrick: You can’t believe ANYTHING coming from America. The people are afraid to even GET a test. There’s crazy rumours it will stop you getting health insurance or join the military
@Paul O’Sullivan: sure of course that’s what you meant.
@John fitzpatrick: they simply aren’t counting deaths in the same way, we include ALL PROBABLE deaths whereas many countries do not and only go off whether or not the deceased have had a positive test before they passed.
@Derdaly: actually that’s a very interesting chart. It shows that we had nearly the same spikes in 2017 and 2018. But compared to other countries at just over a 6% increase in actual deaths , we are way better than many and sitting somewhere in the middle. Ok, that’s a stat that you can compare countries as it measures increases in deaths year on year.
@Derdaly: that’s a great link, the z-scores would seem to indicate we’ve done alright compared to many other countries. Must keep an eye on that one.
Won’t suit the doomlords though.
@John fitzpatrick:
Give it a rest ffs. So Cheltenham was the Government’s fault? The last time I checked Chaltenham is in England not Ireland. Also those Italian fans who came over had nothing got to do with cases here.
Sinn Fein voter by any chance? Yawn
@Nioe: failed maths at school i see
@John fitzpatrick: muted I love this platform!!
@John fitzpatrick:
I am blue in the face saying this…
We don’t know how many cases because they are all running different amount of tests…
We don’t know death count because there are different methods of counting (or in UK missing them entirely)
What we do know is excess deaths i.e. the excess deaths or normal…
Here is that result…
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Ireland looks very good here when compared… We have done a great job and one of them is our testing levels are some of the highest in the world… We counted people despite the political cost unlike some other countries.
I would ask, should we be testing everyone coming from other countries?
Half the figure from yesterday. Still think the meat factories have a lot to do with the new cases yesterday
@Michael Fleming: any evidence?
@Person who has cloned my name and avatar: How come your twitter account doesn’t exist??
@The Risen: Guarantee you it’s the usual muppet. Sad.
@The Risen: oh great, now we’ve got two risen’s to contend with.
@Bernard Sweeney: Fear not Bernard. I’m often imitated, but never emulated.
@The Risen: yep two twonks of your ilk would render mankind untenable.
@Michael Fleming: It’s not that they are allowed to do much else at that weather.
@The Risen: how can I tweet if I don’t have an account that exists?
@The Risen: I am Spartacus…you are Spartacus…
@The Risen: how do we know it’s you? I’ve seen that in movies. What if we shoot the wrong risen?
@Muppet pretending to be The Risen: I just clicked on your name. The twitter account doesn’t exist.
@Bernard Sweeney: If you look at the twitter handles there appears to be 18 of them.
@The Risen: no evidence as he pulled that nugget of information straight out of his arse.
OPEN THE PUBS!!(grabs popcorn)
@Lets be real: who needs to open the pubs when the beaches are thronged with people and kids running around during this good weather
@Lets be real: OPEN THE CINEMAS!!(grabs pints)
@Pauliebhoy: Open your wallet wide when the eye watering taxes hit
That’s good , but just look how many people are traveling to the beach today
@john: just drove around beaches here in Wexford loads of cars parked on road as beaches are closed if anything happened no way emergency services could get through. Car reg nos being taken
@Mary Oliver: The Gestapo would have loved you.
@Tereck:
@john: According to Prof Luke O’Neil (Professor (Chair of Biochemistry) Affiliations: School of Biochemistry and Immunology TCD) today, you’re 19 times less likely to catch it outdoors than in so beach seems like a good idea. Also said that 10% of cases caused other 80%,super spreaders he called them. Most people don’t infect anyone else. Also said singing or shouting in close quarters not a good idea. Obviously paraphrasing him but interview is on Newstalk.
@Tereck: I am only saying what happened merely an observation
@john: People going to the beach on a fine day, imagine that, thats really awful that people are enjoying their lives
@Mary Oliver: why are people jumping to the wrong conclusion all I was saying was what the situation at the beaches were today not criticising
@Mary Oliver: I Hope you remembered what Simon says….not to be getting any new curtains for all that window squinting
@Dave Hammond:???
@Mary Oliver: you need to find some other more productive way to fill your time instead of policing beaches.
Oooooh me nerves….
LOCKDOWN UNTIL 2027!!!!
RIP. As always. Figures will tell a lot next week, they’ll reflect restrictions being eased and hopefully cases/deaths keep falling.
We have the bugger on the run. Now, let’s lock down our land and sea border. #buildthatwall
@Jane Aelst: good woman Jane. Let’s lock us all in our country. The air is clear so we should have a good view of the rest of the world opening up around us.
@John fitzpatrick: I’d rather be locked down in Ireland than just my house.
@Mr Cylinical: jet setter
@Jane Aelst: you’re like a conflicted Gemma O Doherty Jane.
@Jane Aelst: Make Arlene pay
Fergus O’Dowd is blaming the big companies who own the Nursing Homes for not investing more. We just rented out every private fascility in the country (with staff) but did not utilise it. He said that only 23% were viral control complacent. If the companies werent up to scratch or finacially liable thats an oversight and questions why they had licenses to operate. The government were the ones to oversee. Everyone knew what was coming with the Nursing Homes. Its an absolute tragedy. Its not about blame, but our ability to take responsibility.
@tadhgkelleher: And St Mary’s, Phoenix Park, publicly owned, had one of the worst number of deaths.
@tadhgkelleher: caused by respite care admissions from public hospitals perhaps?
Kick leo out and send him back to his own house.
No way of ever knowing but i wonder how many people who died with covid in ireland would have past away regardless
@sean bergin.
Every one of them would have.eventually.
But unfortunately they all contracted Covid -19, which caused their premature deaths.
@Feardorcha Ó Maolomhnaigh: you don’t know it caused their premature deaths. If someone had covid and got knocked down by a car and died they would go into the stats as died “with” covid 19. Lots of those who had covid had mild symptoms but if they died of a stroke or heart attack which they were in imminent danger of but covid didn’t cause then they would also go down as died “with” covid 19.
@Feardorcha Ó Maolomhnaigh: Holohan doesn’t even admit that.
@Dino:
The numbers recorded, are people who have died because of contracting Covid-19. Your example of a car accident in completely incorrect.
The Maynooth /UL study of RIP.ie show an increase in deaths for the March/ April period over 2019 which is close to the reported number of Covid-19 deaths.
This virus kills causes people to die, and has been the cause of death for over 1600 Irish people since early March.
You need to reattach yourself to the real world.
@Dino: Covid is listed if it is the cause or part cause of the death.
your attempt to show otherwise is a false premise at best
@Gary Kearney: have you a source for that? Because otherwise its just going to be a back and forwards me saying your wrong and you saying I’m wrong. It says died “with” not dies as a result or part result of having contracted coronavirus, seems pretty clear to me
The day we had zero was the day after Leo’s lark in the park
@523StarBar: Leos nipples are the cure. Part of me already knew that.
Did Tony say they will continue to report confirmed and probable deaths? I haven’t heard probable figures been mentioned in a long time. Are they just included in the overall and not declared as X amount of the total are probable? Probable means they suspect the person who died might of had covid but not based on any testing?
Open the spuds
Day 1: 60 cases
Day 2: 50 cases
“Fantastic, numbers heading in the right direction”
Day 3: 53 cases
“OMFG WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE VOTE SINN FEIN”
Day 4: 52 cases
“Fantastic, numbers heading in the right direction”
@Peter McKenna: for goodness sake. Have a bit of respect for the families that have lost loved ones before you start spinning your hoola hoop.
Am I wrong ?
I taught he said 8 death’s in his speech ??
Not 9 as in all other news !
Lets all top ourselves lads. The virus cant get us if we are already dead.
have your say