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THE UNITED KINGDOM will leave the European Union on 30 March 2019.
But there is much work to be done before that can happen. Actually, there’s much work to be done after it happens too. The so-called transitional period will not end until 31 December 2020 and any ‘future relationship’ between the UK and the EU has to be worked out after the leave date.
Despite numerous keynote speeches from Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May and almost as many press conferences led by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier, there is still little concrete detail about what a Brexit will look like.
There was a lot of activity again in Brussels today but the path ahead isn’t exactly clear.
Here’s what we do know…
What was published today?
The European Commission published what it’s calling the draft Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and the UK. (You can read it in full here if you wish. It comes to 118 pages.)
While everything in it was agreed in principle with the UK during talks before Christmas (you’ll remember the discussions around the Irish border back then), it is only a draft text. This document will be discussed with the European Council and the Brexit Steering Group of the European Parliament before negotiations with the UK begin in earnest.
Changes are expected as early as next month when the Council will add guidelines around the framework for the future relationship.
Again, remember this is a draft text, drawn up by the EU so there is a starting point for negotiations with the UK about its withdrawal. This is its negotiating position, in full. The UK does not have a similar document as of yet.
So why bother with all the fuss today then?
The EU wants a deal done – written in legal stone – by October 2018 so that it can be ratified by all parties in an efficient manner.
Barnier emphasised today that the UK will be leaving the Union in 13 months. Again, that doesn’t leave much time for negotiations on this draft with the British government.
Or the EU could have decided it wanted its wishlist out there first. A lot of what is included in the text – particularly on Northern Ireland – is the ‘wooden spoon’ if the UK doesn’t come to the table with a better offer of what Brexiteers can deal with.
How is this different to what they were doing before?
Depends on who you talk to. According to Barnier, there are no substantial differences, just more detail. He said there were ‘no surprises’ contained within – although the reaction from May and other British politicians tells a different story.
It details how the UK could make an orderly exit from the EU in terms of citizens’ rights, the divorce bill, matters related to the transition period and, most importantly to us, the protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.
The European Commission says this document is simply a translation into legal text of the Joint Report of 8 December 2017 and the EU-UK Joint Technical note with some of the blanks filled e.g. “The section on citizens’ rights is extremely precise so that it can be relied upon directly by EU citizens in British courts,” the Commission said in a memo today.
So what does it say about Northern Ireland?
It contains details of the ‘backstop’ that we heard much about back in December.
That is, failing any deal being reached and a hard Brexit, then Northern Ireland would remain inside the customs union.
Chapter III, Article 3, of the document says:
A common regulatory area comprising the Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland is hereby established. The common regulatory area shall constitute an area without internal borders in which the free movement of goods is ensured and North-South cooperation protected in accordance with this Chapter.
It would mean alignment between the north and south for customs, VAT, energy, regulations for the protection of the environment and laws governing agriculture and fisheries. Northern Ireland would also have to adhere to EU rules on State Aid and would be under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in those aforementioned areas.
But all of this is the last resort scenario – what has been labelled Option C.
Oh yeah, I keep hearing about Options A, B and C; unicorns and illusions. What’s the story with them?
The Joint Report, as agreed by the UK and the EU in December, outlined three options for Ireland/Northern Ireland. The details were contained in Paragraph 49 which reads as follows:
The United Kingdom remains committed to protecting North-South cooperation and to its guarantee of avoiding a hard border. Any future arrangements must be compatible with these overarching requirements. The United Kingdom’s intention is to achieve these objectives through the overall EU-UK relationship. Should this not be possible, the United Kingdom will propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland. In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
So Option A is that the UK and EU will find a way to avoid a hard border and protect North-South cooperation when they decide on what their future relationship will look like. In short, this would mean a very soft Brexit where the customs union remains in play for the UK.
This cannot even be discussed until Britain actually leaves in March next year. It is also looking less likely as hardline Brexiteers in May’s government insist they are leaving both the single market and the customs union, while for its part, the EU says the UK cannot cherry pick what parts of the Union it wants to keep. Hence, unicorns and illusions.
Option B then looks to the UK to “propose specific solutions to address the unique circumstances of the island of Ireland”. Barnier today said he looks forward to seeing these proposals. No viable ones (see Boris Johnson’s London borough comparison) have been forthcoming as yet. Hence, unicorns and illusions.
So then, Option C.
This was the only one included in this document but the Commission insists all three “remain on the table” but with the following caveat:
Given that two of the three options can only be made operational in the context of discussions on the future relationship, a Protocol has been included setting out, in legal terms, how the third option may be operationalised. This option means that the United Kingdom maintains full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union which, now or in the future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.
If another solution is found, it would supersede this protocol. Barnier did say today that he would prefer Option A, as did Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney.
Under these proposals, where would the border be?
Probably unsurprisingly, it’s not clear.
Asked by journalists today, Barnier said he would not refer to a border in the Irish Sea but conceded there would be checks at ports and airports.
May, however, said that this deal would, if implemented, create “a customs and regulatory border down the Irish Sea”.
Barnier was accused of – but denied – meddling in the constitutional affairs of the UK.
Is any of this binding?
Absolutely not and May has said today that she – or any other Prime Minister – would not sign up to it as is.
Speaking during Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs), she said she will be “crystal clear” to the EU that she opposes the proposal, adding that it threatens the constitutional integrity of the UK.
In the same session, she reaffirmed her commitment to avoiding a hard border.
Echoing her sentiments, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davies told his fellow Conservative party MPs in a letter today that the draft, as published today, would undermine the UK’s common market and constitutional integrity.
As Leo Varadkar predicted last night, there are ‘difficult’ times ahead.
We’ve a long way to go before this agreement is turned into legal text before the October 2018 deadline.
Why are the DUP angry?
No.
Not even a little bit.
Members were out the gates early after RTÉ’s Tony Connelly leaked aspects of the document last night with their criticisms and leader Arlene Foster today confirmed that the text is “unacceptable” to her party.
In a tweet, she said if Brexit played out with Option C it would be “economically catastrophic” for Northern Ireland.
Is the Irish government happy?
Reasonably.
The Tánaiste and Foreign Affairs Minister formally welcomed the text after its publication today, calling it an important step in the Brexit process.
“The draft includes a protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is an integral part of the draft agreement, and gives legal effect to the firm commitments made in December,” Simon Coveney said in a written statement.
We have always been clear that our preference is to avoid a hard border through a wider future relationship agreement between the EU and the UK [Option A], a view we share with the British government. We are also committed to exploring specific solutions to be proposed by the UK.
“At the same time, there is now the necessary legal provision to implement the backstop of maintaining full alignment in Northern Ireland with the rules of the Single Market and Customs Union necessary to protect North South cooperation and avoid a hard border. This is very much a default and would only apply should it prove necessary. This is about delivering on our shared objectives of protecting the Good Friday Agreement and the gains of the peace process, no less, no more.”
Later, he questioned May’s ability to deliver on her promises to both leave the single market and customs union while ensuring there will be no hard border.
He said this in itself was “hard to see”, telling RTÉ Radio One that nobody was looking to pick a fight or to have a go at the British government.
“Our response is, look, this [option C] doesn’t have to be the solution but come up with something better that we can agree and we’d be delighted to agree.”
Would the people of Northern Ireland have any say before the customs rules come into effect?
It is difficult to answer anything with certainty as we’re talking in hypotheticals but it would be unusual if one part of the UK was asked about arrangements, when others weren’t.
And, as previously stated, if Option C happens, it would actually be by default, not arrangement, because of the deal agreed to in December which could be put on a legally binding footing if it makes it into the final legal text in October. That is a big if though.
How much closer are we to a hard Brexit now?
Hard to say. There are still 13 months to try to figure out a deal. But it does make a Brexit more real.
Former prime minister John Major made a significant speech today, accusing May of ‘bad politics’ and ‘grand folly’. He said that he opposed Brexit because he was patriotic and didn’t want to see his country isolated, cut off and a bystander in international politics.
He urged May to change course and show a “willingness to compromise”. He also mooted the idea of a second vote, saying:
Many electors know they were misled: many more are beginning to realise it. So, the electorate has every right to reconsider their decision.
However, that second vote would only come about after MPs get a free vote on the potential legislation – and then parliament should be allowed to vote on having a second referendum.
Are there other things in the document outside of the Northern Ireland stuff?
Yes.
It deals with:
So, what does it say then on citizens’ rights?
Some of those blanks that are filled in by this draft treaty relate to citizens’ rights.
The document outlines that the rules agreed to in December – to give European Union citizens, regardless of country of origin, the right to reside in the UK if they currently live there (or do so any time up to the end of the transition period) – should also be extended to future spouses and civil partners. It also offers more safeguards to those people covered by these rules, ensuring they can cross the border of the host State (the UK) without fear of not being allowed back in.
The UK is not happy with the proposal that EU citizens arriving during the transition period are treated the same as those who were there before that process began.
Further plans in the document would see a professional person who has their qualifications recognised by the UK currently retain that status after the leave date.
The text, published today, if implemented, would also see the establishment of an ‘independent authority’ in the UK which would “monitor the implementation and application of the citizens’ right part of the Withdrawal Agreement”.
According to the Commission, this body should have the “power to receive and investigate complaints from EU citizens and their family members, and to conduct inquiries on its own initiative, concerning alleged breaches by administrative authorities of the UK of their obligations under the citizens’ rights part of the Withdrawal Agreement”.
And the divorce bill?
This follows what was agreed in December and outlines payment deadlines and other practical pieces of information. The Commission said there was no need to make any adjustment to the £39 billion agreed financial settlement.
What does the UK government say about all that?
In his letter today, Davies said that negotiations have been “progressing well” in recent weeks. He said much of what is included will be “comparatively straightforward”, citing the rights of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens residing in Member States and the EU budget plan to 31 December 2020 (the UK will honour its obligations to that end).
However, he also takes issue with the mechanisms mentioned for governing and enforcing any Brexit. He says the UK will not stand for the continuing jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (CJEU).
He said he hopes to continue to engage in discussions in good faith and that many of the ‘separation issues’ mentioned in the draft text will not come to fruition because they will be superseded by agreements made when discussing future economic and security partnerships.
What next?
May is due to give another one of those keynote speeches on Brexit on Friday.
She will then talk to her MPs about Brexit policy on Monday. (They asked for more details today and she told them to ‘Just calm down’, according to The Guardian.)
And we will all edge ever closer to 30 March 2019.
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Arlene is going to implode,plus she’s going against the majority of northern Ireland vote in remaining in the eu.she thought she had it sung the last number of months,watch how the tide turns
@dick dastardly: nonsense argument, let them have a vote on remaining in the UK or within the EU; only then would such an argument have any merit.
@dick dastardly: It doesn’t matter if 100% in the North voted to remain, it was a nationwide vote so the majority of the nation as a whole rules.
@Paul Fahey:
I do admire the way you dismantle the comments of these ultracrepidarians.
@dick dastardly: The times they are A-Changin’ and Foster an Dodds don’t like it.
The powers that be in the EU have decided to help the UK house of cards government collapse. Hope the succeed. They are a joke.
@Cathal Leonard: nonsense, they have given them a get out of jail card. This allows for a very hard Brexit and that will be very very bad for us.
@Cathal Leonard: You’re right. The powers that be in the EU are a joke.
@Paul Fahey: Very obvious tactic to undernine the UK goverment. You havent a clue. Watch and see
@Cathal Leonard:
“It doesn’t matter if 100% in the North voted to remain, it was a nationwide vote so the majority of the nation as a whole rules.”
and both the irish govt and the undemocratic eu pnly recognise votes that suit them .
@mur: The Undemocratic EU? Are not all the Members of the EU parliament not elected? And in what democracy is the civil service (in this case the EU Commission) elected? And the Council of Ministers, are they not “Elected Members” of each countries governments? So do tell what is undemocratic?
@Mick Jordan: dummies love to say that as it makes everything easy to comprehend. Evil big baddies in the EU and smart plucky Britain….just like in the war. Trouble is, just like back then, it is not true Britain is small but far from smart in this case and it is very plain for all to see.
It’s extraordinary that no one in the British government figured NI could be an issue, frankly I’m wondering if they’d secretly love to be rid of it and the enormous financial burden it brings let alone the daily headaches it causes. It’s perhaps ironic the DUP might actually get the opposite of what they clearly want, a united Ireland, maybe not in name but in practice
@Joseph Dempsey: It’s looking that way , if they didn’t see they were being used as a pawn by now then they deserve all they can get. Id say there will be a bust up soon and an election called.
@Joseph Dempsey: its no secret, they would love to be rid of it.
@Joseph Dempsey: Its no secret, of course they would love to be rid of it.
We should secretly start pegging our old Punt to the pound for a quick transition when the Euro currency fails in a few years.
@Ron: Hmm being hearing about the collapse of the Euro for 17 years now. But yet it is accepted as one of the strongest currencies on the planet. Where as Sterling has fallen on world markets and is expected to fall even more after 2019. Doesn’t look like a great bet.
@Mick Jordan: hmmmm, but why is Britain refusing to join the Euro accepted as a very very smart decision. Indeed even the most ardent remainers accept it was a very good decision.
@Mick Jordan:
I agree that the harbingers of doom are constantly on the go and realistically they only get a chance to be correct once. That said, the so called end of QE and rate hikes and reduced bond buy backs will put pressure on the Euro. Deutche Bank is creaking and many Italian banks not great at the moment. Elections there will be fractous. Latvia’s 3rd bank failed last week and it always starts at the peripherals.
@Ron: Banks come and go, Did the collapse the the US Banks bring down the dollar? Did the Japanese financial crisis in the 90′s bring down the Yen? What about the Bank of England bailing out Lloyds, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Northern Rock,Barclays, did that collapse Sterling? Even Bitcoin which is nothing more than computer code and supported by no financial backing from any economy has survived so far.
@Paul Fahey: For the very reason they choose to leave the EU. They are deluding themselves that they can get a better deal outside.
@Mick Jordan:
While banks come and go the IMF monetary policy behind them hasn’t really come up with anything new. Since Greenspan freed up monitary policy in 87 they have gone through cycles of endless money printing and bond buying. The free market hasn’t been free for any period in my life time.
Finite amounts of Bitcoin do give it inherent value over fiat paper that have been printed in the trillions and can be printed to eternity.
Salt and Gold really hold very little value but were once currency.
Its kind of like a confidence game and the spinning plates of the ECB the IMF bank of Japan, Bank of England and the FED are all beginning to wobble.
@Mick Jordan: Ah but a weak sterling has the UK exports flying. Their unemployment rate is 4.4%. What’s ours again? Mmmmmm
@Ian Walsh: If you watched John Major’s interview today you would have heard him say that even though a weak Sterling may seem like a good thing in the short term it is unsustainable for the economy. The UK needs to import 44% of the food it consumes. And according the the British Farmers Union by 2040 that will have risen to 56%. The UK currently finds itself in a position that it can only produce enough food for just over half the population.
It currently imports the majority of its food from the EU tariff free. After Brexit that will no longer be the case. Because of a weak Pound necessary food imports become more expensive. More expensive food will drive up inflation, thus driving up wage demands, resulting in higher prices being charged for trade goods.
And not only food will become more expensive, the raw materials to produce those goods become more expensive. And as wages rise and profits fall, companies will relocate to lower cost economies, which adds to unemployment, reduces the tax take, leading to less spending both government and personal.
As for our unemployment rate it is 6% as of Jan 18 and falling. Not bad for an economy that was over 16% unemployment 5 years ago.
@Mick Jordan: John Major ? Another pro remainer making a tidy sum on the speakers circuits. Has as much credibility as Tony Blair in the British public eyes.
Irish Troops controlling the border? The end is nigh Arlene
@Thomas Harrington:
Dream on Thomas, in the late sixties , during the launch of the civil rights movement several busloads of “ Patriots” decided to liberate the North.
When they met the first British Army checkpoint they reversed all the way back to Dundalk and hit the pubs.
@Colonel Grant: I think you missed the point lad
@Thomas Harrington:
our govt ,without reference to the people just signed away control of the irish army to the new European force. they will be guarding Germany from a further muslim influx.
the eu are only using Ireland to beat up Brittain .
THE SOLE OBJECTIVE AS DEFINED BY THE EU MANDARINS WAS TO PUNISH BRITTAIN SO HARSHLY THE OTHER SERFS WOULD NOT CONTEMPLATE LEAVING the European Utopia RULED BY GERMANY BELGIUM AND FRANCE
@mur: 6 Officers as “Observers” is signing away our Army? You should really control the histrionics.
I’m very proud to be part of such a professional joint operation such is the EU (most times, it’s not perfect). A class act throughout these British initiated parting negotiations. They’ve looked after us, and there people at large. Makes a change from country politics.
Name calling of people who have a different outlook to you solves nothing and is a waste of time. It only results in them becoming more intransigent.
The referendum result in 2016 has created a huge problem for us, here in Ireland, nobody can deny that. The problem has been caused by the British and can only be sorted by them.
We have two powerful ‘ weapons’ to use : The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and last December’s agreement with the UK that there would not be a ‘hard’ border on the island.
Whatever the outcome of the negotiations to come, many would do well to listen to Sir John Major’s speech earlier today. (Link below) It clearly shows a commonsense approach and not childish posturing.
@odonnellp:
John Major, the man who ran away from the circus to be an accountant. He was a useless prime minister, why should anyone listen to him?
@Fran Lonergan: If it was just him then you may have a point. But every previous living Prime Minister is saying the exact same thing. As are the IMF, the OSCE, British Industry chiefs.
@Fran Lonergan: Why should you listen to anybody.!!
I’m not an apologist for John Major or the policies of any British government. I don’t care whether he was, as you say, a circus clown or a bean counter. But I do sit up and pay attention to somebody who speaks proper common sense language, relating to Brexit.
Whether he was a ‘useless PM’ as you say, is open to interpretation and opinion. I will say, however, that without himself and Albert Reynolds getting the peace process talks in train, that the subsequent Good Friday Agreement, would never have happened.
Listening to reason, with an open mind, won’t do any of us any harm.
Head melting stuff… Wonder will the have another referendum??
@Mark Murphy: no.
@Paul Fahey: Why not? Because the Ultra Brexiteers are opposed to one? 16 Million people voted to remain in the EU. How many more have changed their minds now they actually know what exactly it means for them. When the UK leaves in 2019 it will have been 3 years since the original referendum. How many new voters have been enfranchised and how many voters have left the country or died. How many voters that didn’t vote the first time around would like now to have a say.
@Mick Jordan: no, but because all the major parties have said no, but hey, perhaps the UK will listen to you more. For the record it does not matter how many people voted to remain, more people voted to leave.
@Paul Fahey: Labour, the SNP, The Liberals, All the major UK opposition parties have not ruled it out. Only the Conservatives and DUP are implacable in their opposition. Even Corbyn who has a history of opposition to the EU has bowed to internal Labour Pressure to accept voting for a Customs Union.
@Mick Jordan: yes they have, absolutely. The Liberals are no longer a major party and the SNP only count in Scotland. Sorry, but Corbyn ruled it out on the Andrew Marr show last month.
@Paul Fahey: He also ruled out a Customs Union but guess what, that is no longer Labour policy. the SNP are the second largest opposition party in the UK parliament and such have a large voting block in UK parliamentary decisions. In addition to a mainly united opposition the Conservative remain MP’s which number around 60 would be more that enough to force the UK government to hold a second referendum.
@Mick Jordan: I think you’re mistaking a democracy such as the UK as being like Ireland. In the UK a referendum result is respected by the politicians in charge! How you can say the British public should get the chance to vote again, because they now know exactly what leaving the EU means is complete nonsense. Even at this stage nobody knows for sure how it’s going to turn out.
@Rodrigodetriano: Nobody knew how it would turn out before the referendum either. That doesn’t mean that people want to wait to find out. People feel they know a great deal more about it now than they did when the process began.
Legislation changes when societal circumstances change, society moves to sacrifice soveriegnty when a few banks fail. Significant events happen very quickly and you can aways argue that the the referendum should never have taken place because of its simplicty.
People won’t want to be asked again however, because now they need leadership to get ot of the mess they are in rather than havign to think and hear about it constantly. That’s not looking likely however. The current UK government is now just a puppet show until after a deal is done.
@Rodrigodetriano: The Referendum in the UK was and is only “Advisory”. It has zero statuary power unlike referenda here.
During the referendum debate the UK public were told, that they would get £350 million per week back into the NHS. Lie. They were told leaving the EU would be easy. Lie. They were told it would cost nothing. Lie. It would not effect the Irish Border. Lie. That they could have a bespoke (have our cake and eat it) trade deal. Lie. They were told new Trade deals will be quick and easy. Lie. That they would gain control of immigration. They never lost it. So again Lie. The entire Brexit side of the debate was nothing but Lie after Lie. And most of those voting and no comprehensive idea on what exactly they were voting for.
@Rodrigodetriano:
Except Rod mate, the UK referenda aren’t actually binding.
Therefore ……not really a democracy.
Hard luck mate, Brexit is falling apart.
It is not possible for the current incompetents in the tory party to get real, could try Ali G
Sensible John Major
The English are playing games and are undermining the EU by their brexit nonsense. They should agree to EU terms or else remain in EU as is. The alternatives are too disastrous to contemplate……… .. for both sides.
Someone has to…
“The EU is trying to force the UK to get real, here’s how”
With truculent imperiousness.
@Fran Lonergan: Because the UK has not produced any form of workable solution to a problem of their creation.
Time to reopen the bunkers, lock and load
Tony connoly reports the United Kingdom has voted to leave the united kingdom,,,,or should have it been the “EU,,,,surely eithen its reporters dont even no what there talking about,,,so how the hell can the united kingdom opt out when there is no logical understanding of what there talking about,,,i sense total disolusional people voting to leave exactley what i dont no?
@Michael Donovan: Or maybe it was a typo? Like using commas instead of full stops.
Lest you forget. The British public were considerably “well informed” by the remainers during the Brexit campaign. The majority voted to Take back control, short term pain but long term gain.
The alternative ? _ remain in a federalist and increasingly centrally controlling union on the verge of imploding. As regards the economics, anyone hazard a guess what will happen to the European/Asian/Global economies in 6 months ?
Even noted economists don’t.
I think there is real momentum on a second referendum ,nice to see john major voice his opinion ,isolation in the modern world is a folly .may is all over the shop trying to please everyone, sooner or later she will have to make her bed and lay in it .boris johnson continues to act the british buffoon ,a man that was born for the victorian era .Leo s cast iron guarantee looks anything but iron ,nieave and rudderless
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