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MANY BREXIT COMMENTATORS believed that we would have a clearer picture of what Brexit will look like by today.
Those predictions have not really been borne out, despite the delivery of a key speech by the British Prime Minister and the publication of an important document by the European Union.
We do have the starting negotiation positions from both the EU and the UK – but right now, all we can see are differences.
On Wednesday, the European Commission published draft text of what it is calling a Withdrawal Agreement. It is 118 pages long and includes a controversial protocol on Northern Ireland which is already a huge sticking point for the UK. In the absence of a deal, it outlines how Northern Ireland would become part of the EU customs union to ensure no hard border will be established on the island.
British Prime Minister rejected that out of hand and said there would be no breaking up of the UK’s common market or a border running down the Irish Sea.
On Friday, then, she reiterated her support for the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process, ensuring that there would be no hard border on the island of Ireland. Her proposals for how to do that – by way of either a customs partnership or special customs arrangement with specific exemptions for Northern Ireland – were the same as those dismissed by the EU last August.
So, where does that leave us?
With a lot of work for both Barnier and May to do. Here’s what’s due to happen over the coming year…
Monday 5 March and Tuesday 6 March
DUP and Sinn Féin leaders Arlene Foster and Michelle O’Neill will travel to Brussels to meet chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier.
The DUP said on Friday its delegation’s message on Tuesday would be clear:
We want to see a sensible Brexit that works for everyone.
MEPs Matt Carthy and Martina Anderson are also part of Sinn Féin’s group which will be carrying a different aim on Monday. McDonald has said:
“Sinn Féin has consistently called for the North to be designated special status… Since the referendum, the Tory government has repeated their rhetoric of no hard border across Ireland and failed to bring forward a workable solution to how this would be achieved.
“Prime Minister May agreed principles to avoid a hard border in December. On Wednesday, she rejected her own deal. It is clear that the British Government approach to Brexit, once thought of as merely disorganised, has been exposed as destructive.”
22-23 March
There will be an EU summit in Brussels which will see Barnier given the mandate to negotiate.
Speaking this week, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he is preparing for this March European Council, which is expected to agree new Negotiation Guidelines.
“Progress on the Withdrawal Agreement published this week will be important in the context of that next phase of work.”
Over the two days, the European Council, in an EU 27 format, will “review the state of the negotiations following the United Kingdom’s notification of its intention to leave the EU and adopt additional guidelines”.
Those additional guidelines will be added to the draft text which was published on Wednesday and will focus on the framework for the future relationship between the UK and the EU.
After the European Council and European Parliament (particularly its Brexit Steering Group) has their say on the Withdrawal Agreement, it will be “transmitted to the UK for negotiation”.
The UK doesn’t have any similar document, other than May’s three keynote speeches given over the past 18 months.
Over these seven months, UK and EU negotiators will work to reach a deal on the terms of the UK’s orderly exit from the Union.
Remember, discussions about their future relationship can only be done in framework terms, rather than in real, legal deals. Those agreements can only be made in full once Britain has left completely.
The EU has set a ‘by October’ deadline for it to agree with the UK a final legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement. That is so it can be ratified by the European Parliament, the Council and the UK.
This is Barnier’s plan:
At the end of the negotiation period, the Commission will present a proposal for an agreement to the European Parliament and the Council, taking into account the framework of the future relationship of the UK with the EU.
The European Parliament must give its consent, by a vote of simple majority, including Members of the European Parliament from the UK. The Council will conclude the agreement, acting by a qualified majority representing 72% of the 27 Member States, i.e. 20 Member States representing 65% of the EU27 population. The UK must also ratify the agreement then, again according to its own constitutional arrangements.
18-19 October
As per the above, its hoped that a final draft of the agreement will be ready for this EU summit in Brussels.
It needs to be done as early as this (remember, the UK leaves on 30 March 2019, which is five months from this date) so that countries can get the required sign off from their parliaments about the EU-UK economic package.
13-14 December
There will be another EU summit in Brussels which could act as a cushion if everything isn’t in place by 18 to 19 October.
But, these deadlines would be getting extremely tight if that is the case.
21-22 March 2019
There are no details for this EU Council meeting as yet. And you’d need a seriously good crystal ball to be able to predict what will be discussed. Definitely one to mark in the diary though.
30 March 2019
The UK leaves the European Union. Deal or no deal.
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If SF would only take their seats in Westminister they could stop the Tory version of Brexit….For that matter if they would only take their seats in Stormont they could help stop a hard Brexit coming to Ireland….SF have very expensive principles….
@John003:
So you do not expect political parties sticking to the promises made at election time?
And you would advocate the denial of a democratically expressed wish in a referendum.
@John003: if they did take those seats I’m sure you’d be the first to complain about how they “can’t be trusted because they go back on their principles”. Can’t win.
@frank murphy:
How did the end of the war in the North come about? Was that Good Friday Agreement just sprung out of nowhere?
SF has always stood on an abstentionist platform and you want them to break that commitment for the ideological expediency of anti-democrats.
Would you accept DUP MPs breaking their commitment to their electorate, of maintaining the Union, by pressing for a United Ireland?
@frank murphy:
So do you think that taking their seats as MPs in Westminster, having promised not to would be acting like adults?
@Fran Lonergan: Well the war in NI was about the principle of a United Ireland that what all.the killing was about….Ending British rule….Then SF agreed to administer British rule in Ireland…..Power sharing same as what the SDLP had got in Sunningdale agreement in 1974…..So much for principles….
@John003:
“Well the war in NI was about the principle of a United Ireland that what all.the killing was about….Ending British rule”
Have you forgotten about the Bloody Sunday victims and many hundreds more in the North and some in the Republic that were killed in the pursuit of maintaining the status quo?
Or do they not matter?
@Fran Lonergan: no they couldn’t,why are you telling blatant lies.
The DUP outnumber Sf at Westminster.so that defeats the numbers game.
Also how could 10 sf mp’s sucking up the arse of lizzy change the course of 350 Tories.
Stop being such a blatant FG dog
@Adam O’Donoghue:
Could you please explain what your comment means please because you’ve lost me.
@Fran Lonergan: Correct. Anybody suggesting that SF should take their seats in Westminster simply does not understand the idea of abstentionism.
Whether someone agrees with SF’s decision not to take their seats or not is irrelevant – them doing so would be a betrayal because the voters didn’t want them to take their seats in the first place. Quite simple.
@John003:
How could they stop the Tory version of Brexit?
Seriously, how would breaking their election promises to make the west Brits at the Sunday Independent happy, actually make the Brits agree to a sea border John?
@John003:
Did you miss school the day they taught “sums” !
@Adam O’Donoghue: The sums are pretty simple actually… 7 Sinn Féin MP’s would be enough to tip the balance of the current combined majority of the Tory-DUP partnership. That said, I don’t think they should do it. Swearing an oath of allegiance to the Queen is not something a Republican should even contemplate.
@John003: I don’t believe that SF have any principles when it comes to Brexit, they admit to be abstentionist and are just happy to sit on the fence and do absolutely nothing to further Irelands cause. No doubt their supporters will have a lot to say when border controls are set up instead of seeing that it doesnt happen in the first place.
@Fran Lonergan: I would accept that politicians just do their job for the benefit of the country and show us that they are worth their salt.
@Chris Kirk:
Would you advocate politicians abandoning commitment made at election time? Is it not their job to stand by what they have promised?
Frustrating the will of the UK electorate as expressed democratically is not in the interest of the country. Unfortunately, in respect of exit from the EU, that is the jurisdiction in which they are representatives.
@Fran Lonergan: I realise that most of Irelands politicians are low calibre elected through parish pump commitments to a local electorate. However when it comes to doing the right thing and trying to create a better future for everyone in this country then it is time for them to cop themselves on and show some backbone in the national interest and not just what locals think. Unfortunately Ireland is not unique in this regard as there are many politicians in UK political parties who also put themselves and their party before national interests.
@Chris Kirk:
Are you saying that you expect them to abandon commitments made when seeking election and act in a way, in the jurisdiction they are elected in to pursue a policy for the narrow benefit of an ideology in another jurisdiction?
And perhaps UK exit from the EU might work for the benefit of Ireland.
@Chris Kirk: sf / IRA have a lot money to be made when there’s a border.
Not to mention the pr victory and the return of the ’cause’
@Karl: I would hate to see a return of narrow minded and racist bigotry on the island of ireland, there is absolutely nothing to be gained from it.
If individual political parties are still so entrenched over their individual politics then I believe it is time Ireland looked at further developing the proposal for a united Ireland based upon solid economic principals which benefit the island as a whole without any borders. It is time for Irelands government to make the case for the whole of Ireland for a change. The border has been proven to be like a bucket full of holes, it has helped drive peoples apart and been shown to be the cause of smuggling and criminality. Thousands have died because of the border issue and I don’t want to see further generations drawn apart by it. I want the Irish government to show some imagination and backbone in supporting Irish principles for a change and not continue to be weak and lily livered. It is clear that England is no longer interested in looking after the separate parts of the union. Time for Ireland to stand tall and lay out our own plans for the future.
@Fran Lonergan: I have ofter heard SF politicians advocate for a united Ireland, but I see nothing from them these past twenty odd years in showing a commitment to that claim, therefore they will never get my vote.
Above I see mentioned that Michelle O’Niel and Arlene Foster going to meet with EU reps, well that should be fun….
@John003:
I see democracy is not one of your ‘principles’. What is? Eurotoadyism?
Glad to see Brittany Ferries starting a new route from Cork to Spain. They are ahead of the game.
The UK magic trade deal with the USA post Brexit will never happen with Trump in charge now that he’s starting a trade war with everyone
@Insider at RTE: The art of the deal. What a joke these as$holes have made of western democracy
@Insider at RTE: Deluded brexiteers think that they will have a huge say in future world trade. Who was it bailed Britain out of the mess Bombardier found themselves, the EU of course. America is like a hungry shark looking to pick of minnows, finds it tough when dealing with other hungry sharks like China and the EU. Britain doesn’t stand a chance against the worlds big players. Russia is waiting patently to increase the price of oil and gas as the trade war begins to bite.
@Chris Kirk:
Deluded brexiteers? Is that similar to myopic EU maniacs?
@Fran Lonergan: Hardly the same, polar opposites maybe.
“impartial view from the BBC ”
The BBC is not impartial, it is very much on the remain side.
@Fran Lonergan:
The BBC write unbiased articles which pretty much explain the situation in black and white.
Our tripe just at
@Ben Guy:
The tripe that comes from our journalists only attack the British for what they voted for and how they are choosing to handle the situation.
Their government are not like ours, they held a referendum and are acting upon the result.
I respect and admire them for that.
If we choose to sit back and attack them for deciding to take action for what they believe in, do you really think they will give us sympathy and consideration when the EU decide they’ve had enough of using us to try and attack the Brits?
@Ben Guy:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/22/stop-bias-against-brexit-face-fine-bbc-warned/
@Fran Lonergan:
You do realise you copied and pasted an article dated 22/03/2017?
Will I copy and paste the first result of whether we should join the Lisbon treaty and ask for that to be referred to?
Tool.
@Ben Guy:
Well, I supplied two, one before the referendum and one after, for balance.
Here is another post-referendum covering a timeline from before the referendum up to December 2017.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/886579/bbc-question-time-bias-audience-eu-remain-david-dimbleby
@Fran Lonergan: I support U.K. citizens vote to leave E.U.. I think E.U. will be better without U.K. as a member country.
@Maurice Geary:
That’s fine.
It is unfortunate though that having won its independence Ireland is so willing to surrender it so easily, and expects the UK to do the same.
@Fran Lonergan: Ireland joined E.U. by a popular vote. We never joined U.K nor left it by a popular vote. Ireland can leave E.U. by a popular vote. We haven’t surrendered our 96 year independance. The Irish people are willing to be a member country of E.U..
@Maurice Geary:
That’s one way of looking at it.
I just happen to disagree with your interpretation. I can never remember a vote about joining the EU, I suppose it could be argued that Lisbon and Nice could be interpreted as that but that would be stretching a point.
@Fran Lonergan: We can have a referendum vote to leave E.U.. That is better than revolutions and war.
@Fran Lonergan: Never remember a vote on joining the EU?
What was the Maastricht treaty referendum of 1992 if not that?
@Ben Guy:
Oh right Ben I forgot, the British are the victims in all this.
It’s not like their media are ever xenophobic…
Your country needs to take responsibility for it’s own actions, stop blaming the EU and Ireland for everything and stop trolling Irish sites pretending you’re Irish.
It’s pathetic …..even for Brexiteers.
@T Beckett is back:
Jeez you’re a complete tool.
I defend the Brits and now you think I’m one of them? What a ridiculous comment from a ridiculous troll.
@Ben Guy: Yes , they held a referendum that they were forced into by their Premier who assumed a no vote was to be the outcome. He lost out and so did UK because the electorate was not properly informed. ..And are yet not
@Fran Lonergan: the Express? *wipes away tears of laughter*
@Fran Lonergan: the daily express? Seriously? The UKIP paper!
@Malachi:
I suppose it could be argued that Maastricht was a vote for joining the EU.
It was a treaty on European Union but created the European Community. But yes, you are right.
@DJ François:
Do you have a problem with the finding, not created, but reported by the Express? Or do you only believe what you read in leftie newspapers?
Either you accept the findings of the study or you don’t. The Express is only the messenger, or do you believe in hooting messengers?
@Ben Guy: I thought that it was Britain leaving the EU, not the other way around. The EU is protectionist of its rules and regulations for the purposes of standing together as a bloc against the likes of other trading blocs. If Britain walks away then it can’t be included in future trade ageements. Individual smaller countries cannot make demands on big countries like America or China, they have to follow their rules if there is any trade.
@Fran Lonergan: Strange that you refer to Irelands independece ‘won’ before the final throw of the dice. Note that Ireland doesn’t celebrate indipendence because Ireland is still a divided nation. If you can see the future then you will need to try and get NI to see the benefits of a united Ireland and not just a continuation of the same abstentionist narrative.
@Fran Lonergan:
Pobabably more impartial that RTE, which is Eurotoady Central.
May will be toppled
@Tim Brennan: Yes … but after she does all the dirty work. She is not being dignified by leaving herself hang out there for the loony right to blame. She should resign now and leave the nutters to bring the U.K. into the gutter.
@Maurice Geary:
Fine example of a ultracrepidarian comment there.
Well done Maurice, you’ve just highlighted how ridiculous you really are.
@Ben Guy: ?
@Ben Guy:
Can Brits not take criticism Ben?
Nothing wrong with Maurice’s argument.
@Maurice Geary: It is painful to see Britain tearing itself apart when it appears that outdated tribalism is making excuses to drive the country further into a cul-de-sac. Whatever they think they are doing as it becomes obvious that there really is no alternatives to world trade. In years to come Britain will be the weakest part of the Commonwealth it claims to represent and will be clutching at straws trying to trade with India, Canada and Australia.
Why can’t the British see that their future with Europe is guaranteed and not something just to cling to the edges over.
What’s she is telling you is if there is to be border checkpoints they will be in the republic policed by the republic. They are not too worried about what little trade there is between the North & South it is probaly not worth the security risk or worth policing. In other words the border is fine the way it is.
@Michael Maher: Yes, U.K. are still treating us as if we are idiots. Big Mistake. This is 2018.
@Michael Maher: doesn’t that destroy the whole reason for brexit? Control of their own borders? It was a big selling point
@Michael Maher: That may be so, but it is an arrogant assumption and makes little of having any international trade borders or past aggreements. Will the British say the same about trading with other European countries that they disregard borders for trade. If there were to be a trade war between Britain and the EU then it becomes obvious that the EU will win hands down.
British people are driven by their own propaganda into believing that Europe needs Britain more than the other way around. They think that Britain buys more from other EU countries, and therefore feel that the UK can demand a good deal. Unfortunately this is not true and when Parliament asked David Davis for accurate figures he then bluffed his way out. The fact that Sterling has taken a nose dive and worth around 18% less than before the referendum took place doesn’t seem to register with most people it seems, brexit politicians are in denial of hard facts and just goes to show how deluded the British government is to brush off advice given by former prime ministers and senior civil servants. In stark terms it really is like trading a three course meal for a packet of crisps.
@Maurice Geary: In your case I don’t see how that is a mistake.
To U.K. : Just leave now. Stop bothering us.
Can’t help but think this is yet another biased article written by a poor wannabe journalist trying to attack the British.
I’m actually bored of reading the Irish press regarding Brexit. I’m more inclined to read the impartial view from the BBC news from now on.
Well done Sinead O’Carroll and the Journal, you’ve actually starting to convince and confirm to me that the British have got more of a cop on than us.
@Ben Guy: The British may or may not have “more of a cop on than us” but how many vehicles got stranded on British motorways in some snow. How many people died in Britain because of some snow. Ireland is fairly copped on sometimes too, by the way.
The U.K. people voted to leave E.U.. They should do that because they have nothing that is progressive for Europe. We will be fine in Ireland.
@Maurice Geary:
I’m embarrassed for you now.
Parts of the UK suffered almost 20 inches of snow whereas “several” inches were reported in Ireland by the Irish press.
As Theresa May pointed out the other day, “the UK located banks are underwriting around half of the debt and equity issued by EU companies and providing more than £1.1 trillion of cross border lending to the rest of the EU in 2015 alone.” Whereas we have accumulated a €200 billion debt. We need the British on our side and the sooner it’s realised, the sooner we can proactively start moving our country out of the dark ages and into the 21st century.
Ease off the Saturday night drink there Maurice, we don’t need our nation to be tarnished further by your ridiculous views.
@Ben Guy: Okay, I’m sorry about my opinion.
@Maurice Geary:
Good one Maurice.
To avoid annoying others it might be a good idea not to express it unless of course, you are confident that your audience agrees with it. And of course, willing to change it depending on the listener.
As Groucho Marx said, “Those are my principles, if you don’t like them, I’ve got others.”
@Patrick Yore:
In the spirit of shooting the messenger, as observed above, The Guardian?
You cannot be serious!!!!!!!!!!
;-)
@Ben Guy: good call. It was definitely in the late 1970s when Ireland went from being a first world country to a third world country.
All the money given to us by Britain and all the trade compared to now with us m getting any money from the EU and not having any exports.
@Maurice Geary:
How much money was that that you owed to the EU? 60 000 000 000 euros, give or take?
You ‘re real smart all right.
There will be a deal done.
@Paul: on our terms.
There is a lot of talk about how Brexit is a threat to the Good Friday Agreement but surely I can’t be the only one to notice that the Good Friday Agreement has failed to bring lasting and durable government in Northern Ireland because it entrenches division. Also we don’t want a border and Northern Ireland and mainland UK dont want a border. Rees Moggs is right we don’t have to enforce one.
https://ardevine.blogspot.ie/2018/02/why-good-friday-agreement-will-never.html?m=1
@Ala Alowska: I agree. A wall. This country should forget about U.K.. It’s time for Republic of Ireland to tell the world that we exist independant of U.K..
U.K. effed us up. We can decide our own future now.
@Ala Alowska:
Border is the Irish sea Ala.
@Ala Alowska:
Do you not have a massive border with the EU in Russia Ala?
Then again you’re geography is a bit suspect?
You’re obviously from the Russian remedial cyber squad.
LOL
@Ala Alowska:
Border would be great.
Too bad the British soldiers are too afraid to go back Ireland.
@Maurice Geary:
The UK which we were once a part of provided employment, housing and health care for hundreds of thousands of Irish since independence because for most of that period were an economic mess. Yes, there were plenty of historical injustices but there have also been plenty of positives as a result of our close relationship with Britain.
https://ardevine.blogspot.ie/2017/07/what-have-british-ever-done-for-us.html?m=1
@AR Devine:
Your blog title at least is an allusion to ‘what have the Romans ever done for us’.
Of course, such such retrospectives cannot judge how Ireland and those under Roman occupation would have developed if left unhindered.
Perhaps classical culture if measured against developed Celtic or Vandal culture may not look so attractive, especially its Anglo Saxon variety.
Who knows what a Brehon system allowed to develop might have achieved.
@AR Devine: That’s a fair point. Many millions of Irish people have voluntarily chosen to live in the Uk (and still do). This is truly a very difficult situation because I can’t see the Eu allowing the Common Travel Area which has served us well to continue once Brexit occurs. The most intractable issue of our time imho.
EU using Ireland as a way to get at the Brits. What did Guy Verhofstadt tweet recently.. something about ‘thumbs up for a United States of Europe’?
And these capos even want an EU army!! Who are we supposed to hate?
The British want Queen Victors and her war ships back again to reconquer the World
@trebloc01: Utter nonsense. Are you aware that the Irish made up a large percentage of the British army at the height of empire along with civil servants that ran the empire. Ireland was part of the UK then and we were up to our necks in the imperialism of the time that most European countries were involved in. The Irish love to delude themselves of their historical innocence.
@AR Devine:
The footsoldiers of the Wehrmacht cannot be considered the architects of Nazism.
@trebloc01: That’s a bit o.t.t. Irish & Uk Universities are heavily inter-twined. Many post graduate & specialist training courses not available in Ireland and we use the Uk system (eg.NDE, medical post doc etcetc). Why is this highly necessary arrangement not discussed here?
The bride haven’t a clue
@Ciaran McQuaid: brits I mean
It is likely that the Common Travel Area (cta) will cease once Uk leaves as bilateral agreements not allowed. If cta was to stay foreigners in uk could travel visa free to Eu (Ireland)-unacceptable. Have Irish people living in Uk applied f citizenship 2 resolve this?
@gregory:
I don’t blame the Briltish for not trusting the feckless Irish to keep a good guard on the border and prevent sneaky migrants from using it as a backdoor into UK.
My take on last week in Brexit-world. The attack on May will now come from the remainers who have the numbers to topple her…
have your say