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Leah Farrell

A tale of two letters: Election speculation rife this week as Leo says it's 'prudent' to be ready

Leo wants to talk but Micheál’s not ready. Are we in for a bad break up?

IT’S BEEN A big week of election speculation: The leaders of the two main political parties appeared to discover the medium of the letter, and yet again, a row broke out about why they are not talking to each other.

That has been the state of play this week ever since three well-known words began to be bandied around – ‘confidence and supply’.

These words might not mean much to most – but essentially, they refer to the deal Fianna Fáil signed up to facilitate Fine Gael setting up a minority government.

Even though they are the opposition, Fianna Fáil have agreed to support the government on some of the big issues, like getting a Budget passed.

The deal states that Fianna Fáil will facilitate three Budgets – the third of which is due this October.

But while the everyday punter knows there are bigger problems facing the country, this is what Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil chose to concern themselves with this week.

Essentially it boils down to this: Leo Varadkar is anxious to begin talks with Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin about extending the deal. Martin only wants to sit down and chat after the Budget, which is due to take place 9 October.

‘Just another year’ appeared to be Varadkar’s mantra – and sure why not. With Varadkar still high in the polls, and confidence in the government relatively decent, things seem to be going swimmingly (some might argue that these stats mean it would also be a good time to go to the people).

The Taoiseach wants to get the renegotiations going before Budget day. Martin does not. All of this was laid out in two letters which both parties published this week.

It is no coincidence that all this talk kicked off again as Budget negotiations between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael began this week. 

However, when it looked like the Taoiseach was not going to get his way, it was time to throw the toys out of the pram.

Varadkar was out telling reporters that he was “considering” things over. This revved up matters. Next thing Fianna Fáil spokespeople were out speculating that “something else” was going on when Varadkar released that letter. 

Why would he be so transparent, asked Fianna Fáil. God forbid the public actually get informed about what is going on behind closed doors. 

Then the E word was mentioned. Election. That’s what he is pushing for, said Fianna Fáil’s Jim O’Callaghan. “Absolutely not,” said the government spokesperson.

With the Budget, the presidential election, the blasphemy referendum and not to mention the visit by US President Donald Trump in November, no one appeared to stop and think about where an election might fit in. 

0410 Fine Gael Conference_90553415 Leah Farrell Leah Farrell

He said, she said

However, come the end of the week, it was time for the two men to stand down.  After all the bluster, and the ‘he said, he said’, the election talk petered out on the shores of Salthill at the Fine Gael think-in yesterday. 

Fine Gael backbenchers who were in attendance at the away day in Galway even admitted it was a lot of ado about nothing. Some predicted this government will last until 2020, while others said an election will be held this time next year. 

One Fine Gael TD said Micheáł Martin is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

“With Fianna Fáil’s numbers, they either go to the polls and take their chances or they stick it out and continue to get beaten with a stick by their membership who are questioning what they are at all.

“Another option is they do OK in an election but the only real prospect of getting in power is with the support of Sinn Féin. They appear to be a better fit with Sinn Féin than we are.”

Coalition potential

Some might say that Varadkar and Mary Lou McDonald are getting on a lot better these days – is that a sign of things to come, a future coalition perhaps?

Another Fine Gael TD said that was “a scary thought” but didn’t rule it out.

Would Varadkar sign up to a confidence and supply deal with another party? The Taoiseach said yesterday that he is “not contemplating that”. 

Either way, thoughts of an election didn’t appear to feature on the minds of ministers, such as Simon Coveney, while he posed for photos with old ladies in the lobby of the Galway Bay Hotel yesterday. He has enough to be dealing with this week – Brexit, the North and the Middle East. No time for election talk. 

However, some of the media opportunities the Taoiseach has attended this week scream ‘election campaign’. Job announcements, school openings and his first trip to the Aran Islands. 

While election talk seemed to be dissipating yesterday afternoon, there was a glint in the Taoiseach’s eye when asked if he is election ready.

It’s prudent to be ready for “all eventualities”, he said with a grin and was quick to point out that Fine Gael election candidates have been selected in all but four constituencies.

The remaining selection conventions will take place in the coming weeks, he added. 

Is that the sound of starting gun? If photos of Leo Varadkar and Eoghan Murphy emerging from the sea in Salthill appear this morning, we can surely bet that such a PR stunt is a sure sign that it’s on.

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    Mute Kieran OKeeffe
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    Sep 7th 2018, 1:04 AM

    Jays,please call an election..looking forward to chasing a certain labour td from my door

    164
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    Mute prop joe
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    Sep 7th 2018, 9:36 AM

    @Kieran OKeeffe: Labour? FFG have been in power since 1922. Liebour have had little or no power since the founding of the state.

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    Mute D'Murph
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    Sep 7th 2018, 12:16 AM

    Media hungry more like, more in their line to sort out the pressing issues

    107
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    Mute Willy Malone
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    Sep 7th 2018, 12:39 AM

    Won’t be an election. Both men of FFG have the FEAR. They are clearly one and the charade has worn thin at this stage..

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    Mute Acedeuce
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    Sep 7th 2018, 1:31 AM

    @Willy Malone: even if there was an election it’d be the same result sadly.. People would rather take a 5er extra a week over improving housing and even more shockingly take it over improving education.. I do understand why people don’t trust the government with spending and prioritising certain things.. But a lot of people in this country are just greedy. That’s another problem.. The youth suffer, people above 40 are grand.. Cycle will always continue

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    Mute Ole dan tucker
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    Sep 7th 2018, 6:37 AM

    @Acedeuce: just greedy? Ffs about 75% of income goes on tax. And the cost of living. More money won’t fix anything in this country, never did never will until the country is run like a business, might as well throw the fiver in a bottomless pit as give it to govt

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    Mute Jane
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    Sep 7th 2018, 7:20 AM

    @Acedeuce: people above 40 are the ones with massive mortgages cause they bought in the boom and many are still in negative equity.

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    Mute Caped Crusader
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    Sep 7th 2018, 8:04 AM

    @Acedeuce: I earn over 40k and can assure i am not “grand”. I get along ok but spending €1400 a month on rent and trying to save the same for a mortgage while paying for medical insurance, car insurance, utilities etc etc means there is next to nothing left at the end of a month. One thing the left have succeeded in is conning the general public into believing once you earn a magical figure of 40/45k plus you are rich. To be safe and secure in this day and age a wage of 60k plus is needed.

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    Mute ObsidianShine
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    Sep 7th 2018, 8:14 AM

    @Caped Crusader: I think he meant the age 40 not 40,000 euro

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    Mute Dave Doyle
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    Sep 7th 2018, 5:45 AM

    Leo won’t be happy with that photo. There’s a few wrinkles in the clothes.

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    Mute John Martin
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    Sep 7th 2018, 5:45 AM

    Both leaders are running scared, I think Varadker’s pr team are the more savvy at present, and Martin’s team are worried they have not carried on the momentum leading up to the last election. Both are very concerned the other opposition parties (all parties baring ff/fg) gained over 50% of the votes in the last election for the 1st time since independence, and the trend is continuing away from the big two, and towards the others. And this was achieved with the collapse of the labour vote, and the very low vote for the Green Party.
    So whilst most of the right wing media will show little attention to the fact, Varadker & Martin are very concerned to the raise in votes for the other parties.

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    Mute Jane
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    Sep 7th 2018, 7:37 AM

    @John Martin: You’ve forgotten a few important facts there. Of that 50% that didn’t go to FF or FG, 18% went to Independents. How many of those are what you would consider left wing? Very few I’d say. 6.5% went to Labour, do you consider them left wing?
    That brings your 50% down to 25.5%.
    You’re left with a combination of SF, Solidarity, PBP, Greens and Social Democrats. They’d all need to dramatically increase their votes in the next election in order to form a government.

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    Mute Lisa Byrne
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    Sep 7th 2018, 12:46 AM

    I am riddled with excitement about this 2 year ambitious plan that Leo has

    51
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    Mute Sean Conway
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    Sep 7th 2018, 7:05 AM

    Will he fixed the housing and health service? not a hope. he’s only a spoofer.

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    Mute Patabake Kennedy
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    Sep 7th 2018, 12:34 AM

    This fella sure has a hankering for an election. Just call one Chap, I mean to say, have ya no idea at all that you are the so called leader of the Country and that you, yes you can call an election any auld time that you like.

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    Mute Adrian
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    Sep 7th 2018, 7:04 AM

    Leo’s sends letter to martin saying he doesn’t want an election till 2020, but the FG meeting in Galway is full of new FG election candidates. Talk about mixed messages! The message to me is that FG is a shambolic mess, they are so busy trying to fool the public that they don’t know what they’re doing themselves!

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    Mute lapsy pa
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    Sep 7th 2018, 1:16 AM

    sure look at them

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    Mute Patabake Kennedy
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    Sep 7th 2018, 1:23 AM

    @lapsy pa: Fed up looking at them to tell ya the truth.

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    Mute Irish Spider-Man
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    Sep 7th 2018, 12:53 AM

    Blueshirt numpties. Don’t vote for FG clowns

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    Mute Sean Conway
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    Sep 7th 2018, 8:51 AM

    He’s on the radio now saying. ‘no quick fix to housing.’ meaning same old same old. call an election!!

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    Mute Shane Zerbe
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    Sep 7th 2018, 7:27 AM

    Drain the swamp!

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    Mute Michael Kelly
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    Sep 7th 2018, 7:33 AM

    If theres one thing I can’t Stand, its the Ball of Twits in this whimpering Country & when all is said & done, ” ahh sure I new they were neck & neck” over a steak dinner, everyones an expert type of thing, & everyone knew the outcome…. Grow a funcking pair..!

    13
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    Mute Sea Graham
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    Sep 7th 2018, 8:16 AM

    We’re damned if we do and damned if don’t. Look at the alternatives we have. FG looking after the rich. FF prepared to crawl into bed with anyone just to sit at the top of the class. LAB. Pretending to support the masses but nothing but self serving. PBP and the rest. Not a clue how the country or economy works with a one for everyone in the audience mentality. IND. Parish pump politics. Once my constituency is sorted to hell with the rest.

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    Mute John
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    Sep 7th 2018, 8:29 AM

    @Sea Graham: exactly, could not have summed it up better.

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    Mute John Blessing
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    Sep 7th 2018, 3:23 PM

    Addicted to Mars bars and comes out of the closet. I wish he’d go back into the closet with his Mars Bars.

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    Mute John Blessing
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    Sep 7th 2018, 3:18 PM

    Neither party will = $$$$$ They are two checks of the same a%&*

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    Mute Frankie Mangan
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    Sep 7th 2018, 5:58 PM

    They should just merge now because it’s inevitable in the future.

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    Mute Margaret Kane
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    Sep 7th 2018, 10:55 PM

    The sooner Leo and his posh boy’s go the better and make sure they take the FF idiots with them

    4
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