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THE CENTRAL BANK has today predicted that the Irish economy will continue to grow at a steady pace for the next three years.
In its fourth quarterly bulletin of 2018, the Central Bank said that we are heading towards full employment but that the risk of Brexit could cause the country’s growth to stagnate.
The bulletin examines recent trends in the economy and provides the Central Bank’s forecasts for the Irish economy and its views on domestic economic policy issues.
Some of the headline findings in the latest report include:
The Central Bank statisticians added that the evidence suggested an acceleration in the growth of some domestic investment sectors such as housing and non-residential construction.
Projections for the completion of new homes have also been revised. It is now expected that a total of 19,000 homes will be finished by this year, 24,000 in 2019 and 28,500 in 2020.
But then there’s Brexit. According to the bulletin “a disorderly Brexit would pose immediate challenges for the Irish economy and financial system”.
“While the decline in Irish economic activity would be just over half as severe as a scenario based on World Trading Organisation tariffs, the proposed arrangement would still have a significant negative long-run impact on Irish output and employment.”
Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics, said: “Today’s forecasts are for strong growth this year, moderating somewhat in 2019 and 2020. We expect more than 150,000 additional jobs to be created in the economy by 2020 and with consumer price inflation likely to remain subdued, significant gains in terms of real purchasing power can be expected.
“However, while this is all very welcome, Ireland must learn from past mistakes and be pro-active in guarding against boom-bust cycles, by building up buffers to limit the costs of future downturns.
“This is all the more important given the clear risks facing the economy. Compared to our European neighbours, we remain particularly vulnerable to potential shifts in the international tax and trade environment. The threat of a disorderly Brexit, which would have an immediate disruptive effect on the Irish economy, remains ever present, while our research shows that the impact of a more favourable or “soft” Brexit outcome would still hit Irish economic output, exports and employment.”
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How many of those jobs will afford you to buy a home, save for a deposit? Is it low pay work, or work that allows you to live?
Statistics give a rosy picture, the reality of life in Ireland is totally different. For ordinary people, that is.
@Dave Doyle: as usual the Central Bank miss the most important points. The cost of housing will bring the country to it’s knees.
If at the end of the week you cannot pay the bills after working all week then there is something seriously wrong. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people in this position. Work has to pay.
@Derek Poutch: If, at the end of the week you can’t pay your bills after “working all week” then you need to cut back on your outgoings.
Nobody has a God given right to Sky Sports, bottles of wine, six packs of beer, fags, foreign holidays, lotto tickets, nights out, etc etc.
It’s called cutting your cloth & it does work!
@Justin Gillespie: you are making a LOT of assumptions there
@Dave Harris: Doesn’t apply to everyone Dave & I fully accept that the rental/mortgage situation is a debacle, but I see money being thrown about the place by people who then complain about being broke at the end of the week & it never seems to occur to them that there just might be a link…..
@Justin Gillespie: So you see “money” being “thrown about” by “people” and then you “see them complain” ?
If by “see them complain” you mean journal’s comments section then that just makes the part of your comment about actually physically seeing people throw money about complete BS. Why don’t you call it what it is.. an opinion. An opinion backed by purely anecdotal evidence with no basis in fact whatsoever
@Justin Gillespie: yeah, we should just work pay taxes and consume only bread and water. Would make you happy? God forbid people actually get some kind of enjoyment in their lives!
@Derek Poutch: The wealthy have the workforce is so fractured that it’s nearly impossible to go on strike. ‘raise the roof’ is the way forward.
@Justin Gillespie: The exact response I would expect to hear from a loyal blueshirt. They just want people to exsist not to have any kind of life.You are tarring all low paid workers in the same bracket. No wonder ffg are now hated by the working class.
@Derek Poutch: And there we have it, the lefty response is the same old same old.
“I deserve everything, I deserve it now & if I don’t get it then it’s someone else’s fault.
Big crybaby children.
@Justin Gillespie: Have to listened to the whinging and crying FG are doing over that liar Firzgerald?
@Dave Doyle: Couldn’t care less about Fitzgerald. I wouldn’t trust any of them to sit the right way round on the jacks.
“Ireland must learn from the mistakes in the past” . Nearly fell off my seat. Especially coming from a bank. We know the rest.
@James O’Brien: well I suppose the central bank is a central part of our leprechaun economy and is a central cog in keeping this whole sham of a recovery going, which our politicians appear to be among the few benefiting from before everybody else with their frequent pay rises that insulate themselves from the rapidly rising cost of living that so many of the rest of us are struggling to cope with.
@Adrian: not really. the key for leprechaun economics is revenue including non taxed global profits as part of our GDP, which is reported and calculated by revenue.
@Adrian: ‘Rapidly rising costs of living’ inflation is under 1%. Is hardly call that rapid!
@joe: And you actually believe that figure?
@joe: Is cost of living solely determined by inflation? Rent went up around 10% across the country pretty sure that affects cost of living.
Good job FG, they Kept the Recovery Going during the hard times and brought the country from its knees
@Seamus Balfe: you mean they taxed their way out of it, sold important infrastructure, privatised the rest, brought health to its knees and helped people lose their homes and made them homeless, demoralised schools ,gardai and the army. Yeah good job fg
@Seamus Balfe: Can you explain to us on here how FG brought about this “recovery” please? There is no need to go into detail in how they implemented the agreed FF/IMF measures as we know all about that already.
@David Corrigan: but the Rich People have gained by all this, so with all their extra cash they will invest in something or other that will create more shiny new jobs or some crap. Or they’ll buy a bunch of rolls Royce’s and Ferrari and obscenely expensive watches and put the rest in off shore accounts
@Dave Harris: Leo and his merry band of neo Thatcherites want us to believe if the rich are looked after then their wealth will “trickledown” to the poor common folk. Their brand of conservatism is just an excuse for greed and is a lie
Well one thing’s for sure, if anything goes wrong it’ll be brexit’s fault!
Our idiot gov are so efficient now, they’re sorting out the accountability issue before anything happens!
Ireland could do with a bit of a crash. In the Celtic Tiger, the House prices indicated something outrageously wrong with the economy; it is a similar situation now with rent being higher than celiac tiger peaks so there is something definitely wrong. Possibly the surrendering of vast swathes of land to overseas investors so a global downturn affecting them could actually be good for Irish people. Trump, ironically, might be good for Ireland to cause such international turmoil!
@Conor Boden: *Celtic
Really? Looked at the stick market lately? House of cards is about to fall pretty soon
@cryptodon: *stock market
Be well advised to get their order in for tents now and secure their corner Phoenix Park.
Not in rural North Kerry and Central Bank are under orders from this disgraceful FG and FF coalition government
It’s still in down turn here only the rich and elite benefit
Here’s something interesting to note. The size of the US economy is $19.42 Trillion or 25% of the world’s gross product. The US stock market should in a healthy economy be equal to in or around 60% of the size of the US economy. The US Stock market is currently valued at over 160% the size of the US economy.
My sources in the bank tells me it’ll be grand though, no need to withdraw my funds.
@Shane Dignam: The Central Bank of Ireland seems to differ in their assumptions from International economists, focusing primarily on Brexit as a core danger. To depend so much on both commercial and domestic construction in driving the economy ? – we’ve been there before. Where is the threats of digital tax before year end, the common corporation tax via the EU. You’re correct with the US threat, reinforced by Lagarde only this week.
The Celtic Tiger is purring again and the same bunch of crooks are feeding it.
Lagarde me ‘aul flower. When the next crash happens, like everyone else, she’ll be out of a job. Central banks the world over will collapse and the IMF and World bank will literally drown in the cesspit of never ending debt that their rotten systems created. As horrific as this sounds it needs to happen, and it will undoubtedly happen. The only way to save the current system is to create even more debt, but there is no mechanism that they have at their disposal to create enough debt to fix the problems that will be created by the next bubble bursting. A completely new economic system will have to be created. C
How about ye fixed yer interest rates the banks . Ye give out f eck a.LL the last few years and Ireland is not recovering there b another recession yet
Lies, damned lies, and statistics…
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