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THE GOVERNMENT has formally lowered its expectations of growth in the Irish economy for 2012, nearly halving its original projection published in last December’s Budget.
The latest Stability Programme Update, published this evening, sees the Department of Finance revise downward its expected growth in Irish GDP, from 1.3 per cent in the Budget to a more modest 0.7 per cent.
The report also projects growth of 2.2 per cent in 2013, and an average of 3 per cent for 2014 and 2015, by which time Ireland is expected to have brought its Budget deficit within 3 per cent of its GDP.
This is in comparison to the EU-IMF projections of 0.5 per cent growth for 2012, 2 per cent in 2013, 2.5 per cent in 2014, and 2.8 per cent in 2015.
The government’s update outlines that general government debt will peak at 120.3 per cent of GDP by 2013 – just over double the amount permitted by the terms of the Fiscal Compact – before reducing to 117.4 per cent by 2015.
After this point, Ireland will have three years to meet the Fiscal Compact’s target of keeping the Budget deficit within 0.5 per cent, and will be expected to knock one-twentieth off its debt levels every year.
Publishing the document this evening, Noonan put speculation of a potential ‘mini-Budget’ to bed by insisting Ireland would meet its deficit target of 8.6 per cent of GDP this year.
“Based on all of this information there is no change to the budgetary adjustment for the 2013-2015 period and our plans remain as set out in the Medium Term Financial Statement published in November 2011,” he said.
“We know that a sustainable public finance position is in the interest of all citizens, as it ensures that the State has the resources to pay for essential public services, such as health, social protection and education.”
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Austerity does not work. At all. It never has, it never will. It is nothing but brutal theft masked as respectable theory.
Remember austerity is just working out how to make people pay for the bank bailouts.
One projection is as good as the next make it up as it goes but the reality is that GDP contracted by 7% in the last quarter of 2011 and 6 businesses a day closed down in the first quarter of 2012 that’s reality not some wishful thinking the revenue are scraping every barrell for money these days
How long before the likes of this starts:
Just a precursor to another stealth tax being imposed on an already squeezed population.
People like Paul Sommerville, David McWilliams & Constantin Gurdgiev have been saying this would happen for a year now! The gov keep knocking them as pessimistic as they don’t build yoy growth into their forecasts! This gov is a joke and people need to start looking at the real problem which is te system itself! Until we change this ridiculous system nothing we do, including getting back to growth will make a difference! Let’s start challenging and demanding change
Hear hear and vote No to the treaty !
@Gzeit well said circulate to accumulate is the only way but What these fools are doing is take take and take some more and they employ advisor and more advisor and they still have not got a clue
Excerpt from an Indo article on the Fg/Labour government of the early 80′s (Funny how history repeats itself):
UCD economist Sean Barrett commented, “the Government has not been able to tackle the public expenditure problem . . . yesterday it adopted the new public stance of not trying . . . despite the harsh budgets in 1981 to 1984, we have managed to double our foreign debts by 1985. Despite apparent tax cuts, the real burden rose in the 1985 budget. Income tax will rise by 8.4 per cent in 1985. The increase in sales taxes is 7.8 per cent.”
As it piled misery upon misery on the electorate, nobody was under the impression that this Government was anything other than an incompetent one.
Leo Varadkar’s throwaway comment that Brian Cowen’s disastrous record means he resembles neither Lemass nor Lynch but FitzGerald seems mild enough in the circumstances. That Garret’s government failed miserably is not a matter of opinion, it is a matter of fact.
Two excuses are usually trotted out by the man’s apologists. The first is that he inherited an economy in parlous condition. This may be true but the coalition had over four years in office, surely long enough to effect some improvements. Instead they introduced a generation of school leavers to the joys of the dole queue.
The second is that FitzGerald and Dukes were prevented from taking the necessary action by the presence of Labour as coalition partners. If this were true you’d have to wonder why a principled man like Garret remained in office for four years in those circumstances. Surely the honourable thing in the circumstances would have been to resign and seek a mandate from the electorate.
Gzeit your comment makes perfect sense the system is broken but to fix it corruption would be stopped and if you think the wealthy or the banks are going to let that happen ,i hope it does happen and we then will have a country for the many not the few
Dermot it isn’t just the wealthy & bankers that have a vested interest in maintaining ongoing corruption as the Mahon & Moriarthy tribunals pointed out.
I’ve attached an old, but still relevant, piece from Patrick Honohan on how political corruption and incompetence results in stagnation and unemployment.
http://homepage.eircom.net/~phonohan/Kenmare92.HTM
Growth with austerity,, are they having a laugh. Can’t see the wood from the trees. They talk of GNP & GDP, with no realisation/connection of the affects of their cuts on the people they claim to serve.
Austerity is not working it won’t either get ready for more stealth taxes and cuts
No taxation without proper representation !!!!
Silver tongued devil is our Mickey.
Just wait for the fiscal compact, we’ll be in negative territory then.
Doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results – isn’t that the definition of insanity?
Cuckoo land.
How can there be growth when the majority of the nation don’t have 2 cents to rub together after paying all the bills,stealth taxes and the price of a tank of fuel for the car. Anyone I know has no money to do anything, going out for a meal, a few drinks or even the cinema is out of budget.Austerity isn’t working and it won’t because the economy won’t pick up when no one has money idiots they are.
Mini budget in September so Baldy? Think even the revised figures are very optimistic and as for suggesting that in 2014/2015 we will be running at 3% what fool came up with that figure? Have they not noticed that Europe is grinding to a halt thanks to all the austerity budgets.
Hi Mr Noonan,
Just for you baby!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCd3dh6PuFQ
Lol :)
Their special consultants got it wrong again. How much were they paid?
There is no way we will hit 2.2% growth in 2013 either. More unrealistic economics from an austerity Government, we need an emergency election to get these pigs out!!!
have your say