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Specialist Peter Giacchi, centre, calls out prices as he works at the post that handles JP Morgan on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday after the losses were announced. AP Photo/Richard Drew

Explainer: How can JP Morgan lose $2bn in less than six weeks?

There has been some alarm and many questions as to how America’s biggest bank lost so much money.

THIS WEEK, WE learned that the US’ biggest bank JP Morgan Chase recently lost over $2 billion or around €1.55 billion in trading on complex financial investments.

The losses will not pose any threat to the bank’s long-term viability given its profits last year which were nearly ten-times that amount but they have raised many questions about why banks continue to wager on risky investments in the wake of the financial crisis.

Here, the Associated Press explores what went wrong and why…

How can a bank lose $2 billion in six weeks?

That’s just one of the mysteries surrounding the news that JP Morgan Chase, widely thought one of the safest US banks, is gushing red ink from bad trading bets. As details slowly emerged, the shares of the nation’s largest bank fell hard, as did those of several rivals.

The story behind the loss is complex, and rich in irony. How it’s viewed could influence regulators implement a major financial overhaul law called Dodd-Frank. How hard regulators crack down on bank could have a big impact on the stability of the financial system.

Here are answers to some questions about the loss…

How exactly did the bank lose so much so fast?

First, start with the irony. JP Morgan says the losses came from a trading portfolio designed to offset losses in the bank’s lending business. Instead of offsetting losses, these so-called “hedges” added to them.

JP Morgan extends money to companies through loans and by buying bonds. The bank was worried that it might not get all its money back, so it bought protection. Though it didn’t detail how it did this, banks typically buy credit default swaps, essentially insurance contracts that pay out when companies stiff their lenders.

It gets more complex. In the often dizzying, Alice-in-Wonderland world of banking, these hedges are themselves sometimes hedged, and that’s exactly what JPMorgan did. The bank apparently thought it had bought too much protection, so it hedged its hedge.

It’s that second hedge, basically a bet that companies would pay back their loans, that led to the losses.

How does the “London Whale” figure into the story?

News reports before the bank announced its loss said that a trader at the bank dubbed the “London Whale” had invested heavily in an index of credit-default swaps, and that the bets were producing losses. But in a conference call on Thursday, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, said the news reports about London trades were only “somewhat related” to the losses. He provided no other details.

Why are other bank stocks falling on the news?

It’s not just the size of the bet that’s scaring investors, but its complexity. The fact is, not even experts know how precisely big banks make money, and occasionally lose it. Their wagers are largely hidden. The opaqueness, which investors normally shrug off, is spooking them now.

Investors are uneasy also because JP Morgan has a reputation of managing risks better than almost anyone in the business. Investors seem to be asking: If this bank can lose $2 billion in six weeks, maybe others can, too?

Finally, there’s the regulatory threat. The loss comes amid heated debate in Washington over just how tightly to regulate banks. “The timing of the JPMorgan announcement couldn’t be worse,” said Whitney Tilson, head of hedge fund T2 Partners, speaking at an industry gathering in Las Vegas.

Investors fear that bank profits could be pinched by the so-called Volcker Rule restricting trading that banks do with their own money, as opposed to clients’ funds.

Dimon has been an outspoken critic of the rule, and an impactful one given his skill at navigating his bank in recent years. JPMorgan was the only bank to remain profitable during the 2008 financial crisis.

Now that Dimon has been pushed off his pedestal, investors are worried that regulators will be tougher in enforcing the new rule.

Isn’t the trading that led to the loss banned already?

No. The rule doesn’t take effect until July, and even then regulators are suggesting banks will have another two years to comply.

In any case, it’s not clear that the trade in question were subject to the rule. In the conference call Thursday, Dimon said the trades that backfired were hedges, not bets for profit, so they wouldn’t have fallen under the rule.

But some experts have doubts.

Nancy Bush, a banking analyst at NAB Research, says it’s not always clear what is hedging and what is gambling. The size of JP Morgan’s loss makes her suspicious.

“So they made money on hedges and then they hedged some more,” she said. “At some point it goes from being a hedge to being a money maker. They crossed the line here somewhere and it’s going to cost them.”

Sen. Carl Levin from Michigan, the chair of a subcommittee that investigated the crisis, put it more bluntly. “This is not a hedge,” he said. He called the loss a “stark warning” about the danger of “risky bets” at banks.

How much will the trading loss hurt JP Morgan?

Likely not much at all, putting aside the impact of tougher regulation. JPMorgan is a big money maker. The $2 billion loss, which is before accounting for taxes, compares with $19 billion in net income last year and $16 billion the year before that.

What’s more, Dimon said that $2 billion loss will be offset by $1 billion trading bets that have already paid off. Dimon said there are $7 billion more paper gains from trades that he can tap in case losses grow.

Are more losses possible?

Dimon said he is trying to unwind the bad bets in a “responsible” manner to minimise losses, but prices can move against him. That would mean more losses. Dimon has said the $2 billion could become $3 billion depending on how markets react.

- Bernard Condon, with reporting from AP Business Writers Pallavi Gogoi in New York, Daniel Wagner in Washington and Christina Rexrode in Las Vegas.

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    Mute DMurph
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    Aug 19th 2017, 4:13 PM

    So what if he served 48 days , and so what if that was the deal made by the prosecutor. He drugged and raped a 13 year old girl ! Why would you want filth like that back in your Country, no matter how good his films are..

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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    Aug 19th 2017, 4:40 PM

    @Blarneykite: you’re literally defending a paedophile.

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    Mute Paul Fahey
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    Aug 19th 2017, 4:45 PM

    @Blarneykite: you must be deaf if you cannot hear the calls for Blair and Bush to be tried for war crimes, perhaps selectively so. Anyway, back to your defence of an admitted paedophile.

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    Mute Nora Heron
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    Aug 19th 2017, 6:20 PM

    A predator

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    Mute Tomasz Kuchnik
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    Aug 19th 2017, 4:49 PM

    “Polanski – the only polish wanted in the USA without a valid visa lol”
    While I despise him as a person, polish court was right not to extradite him to the us. US made balls of the investigation and charges and wanted to change it after he served what they deemed at first. Only US court fault. Then still interesting why she wanted withdraw her case from the court, being a victim it sounds weird, who knows what was really between them, maybe consensual sex that turned wrong when he said to her bye bye. (Not that’s right anyway to have sex with 13 years old).

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    Mute Paul Fahey
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    Aug 19th 2017, 5:04 PM

    @Tomasz Kuchnik: a 13 year old cannot legally consent to sexual intercourse in the US. Anymore vile excuses for Polanski?

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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    Aug 19th 2017, 5:10 PM

    @Tomasz Kuchnik: maybe she’s just sick of this following her around and would like closure. She is now living her life and maybe she has recovered and wants it all to go away and I have a lot of sympathy for that. It must be hard for her.

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    Mute Tomasz Kuchnik
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    Aug 19th 2017, 5:14 PM

    @Paul Fahey: cannot consent legally, but can consent informally… not? and why are you attacking me I said I despise the man, and just thought that’s one possibility…

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    Mute Paul Fahey
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    Aug 19th 2017, 8:09 PM

    @Tomasz Kuchnik: what exactly is “informal consent” by a 13 year old child to sexual intercourse? I find that a most disturbing comment, I really do.

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    Mute Tomasz Kuchnik
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    Aug 19th 2017, 11:11 PM

    @Paul Fahey: Paul ok I need to explain that to you as for some reason you don’t get it, in 90s in the US first sexual intercourse under 13 years of age have been reported by more than 10% of the teenagers. It has been decreasing since then. So in 70s when this happened, that percentage was likely even bigger than 10% although I have no source for it. How do you know she didn’t want to sleep with him as you seem totally rejecting that version? Rape accusation is oldest trick in a book. Now before you go on holy war with me – I’m not saying this is the case. I’m just interested why you don’t let think it could have been consensual from her side then. Himself as a grown up man should have known better and of course shouldn’t touch her either way.

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    Mute Paul Fahey
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    Aug 20th 2017, 8:50 AM

    @Tomasz Kuchnik: you are aware how old Polanski was at the time of these crimes aren’t you? He was not a 13 year old boy having “informal consent” sexual penetrative intercourse with a 13 year old girl. No, he was a 40+ year old man committing statutory rape on a 13 year old girl, consent does not come into it, formal or “informal”. If you think all the US 13 year olds you mention are losing their virginity to 40+ year old man, then you need help. You are defending and making excuses for a paedophile, let that sink in. You may think you are being clever with your words, but most normal people will find them quite disturbing.

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    Mute Deborah Behan
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    Aug 19th 2017, 3:57 PM

    Good. Horrible man.

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    Mute Dan Murphy
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    Aug 19th 2017, 4:16 PM

    He is a dirtbag.

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    Mute Barry Flynn
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    Aug 19th 2017, 9:08 PM

    Jesus Barny.. give it a rest.

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