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n Indian paramilitary solider fires tear gas shell towards Kashmiri protesters in Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, on Tuesday. Dar Yasin/AP/Press Association Images

Explainer: Why are India and Pakistan - both nuclear powers - on the brink of a major confrontation?

The countries have been in a dispute for over 70 years in relation to the Kashmir region.

TENSIONS BETWEEN INDIA and Pakistan in recent weeks have reached highs not seen in decades.

Events over the last few weeks have sparked fears around the world that there could be a war between the two nuclear powers. 

Today Pakistan said that it had shot down and Indian fighter jet that had entered into its airspace in the Pakistan-controlled portion of the Kashmir region.

Pakistan state media has also released footage which apparently shows a captured Indian fighter pilot being interrogated. India for its part has also said that it has shot down a Pakistani warplane.

The latest incidents were sparked by a militant suicide attack in the India-controlled portion of Kashmir earlier this month, which killed over 40 Indian paramilitaries.

But recent events are just the latest in a long line of conflicts between the two countries and separatist militants over the status of the region of Kashmir.

The dispute stretches back over 70 years and has resulted in multiple wars and tens of thousands of deaths, first beginning with the departure of Britain in 1947 and the end of colonial rule. 

What are the origins of the dispute? 

India and Pakistan achieved independence from Britain in 1947 after many decades of colonial rule. The Indian subcontinent was split into the two countries under the Independence Act.

Under that act, Kashmir – a scenic Himalayan region in the north of both countries and sharing a border with China – was free to accede to either India or Pakistan. 

As a Muslim majority region, it was expected to go to Pakistan.

However, the local ruler at the time, Hari Singh, chose India, sparking an immediate war between the two countries which lasted two years. 

Cloudy Day in Srinagar, India - 25 Feb 2019. Kashmiri boatmen are seen paddling their shikaras during a cloudy day in Srinagar, Kashmir. Idrees Abbas / SOPA Images/Sipa USA Idrees Abbas / SOPA Images/Sipa USA / SOPA Images/Sipa USA

The war was inconclusive and India retained control of the state of Jammu and Kashmir while Pakistan controlled the territory of Azad Kashmir and Balistan which became Pakistan-Administered Kashmir.

Nothing was settled, however, and both countries fought a second brief war in 1965 over the region.

Jammu and Kashmir is the only state in India which is a majority Muslim. Many of its inhabitants do not want to be controlled by India and would rather independence or to be part of Pakistan.

(Part of Kashmir is also controlled by China)

What are relations like between India and Pakistan?

Since independence, relations between India and Pakistan have been fraught with difficulty. 

The countries fought another war in 1971 over Pakistani rule in what was then East Pakistan.

India supported Bengali nationalists in what would later become Bangladesh. During the war India’s air force conducted bombing raids inside Pakistan. 

A ceasefire line agreed after that war between the India- and Pakistan-administered areas of Kashmir is known as the Line of Control.

Both countries have fought over this line in the decades since. In 1999 a fierce battle was waged between the two over the line which many called an undeclared war. 

Pakistan India Pakistani soldiers patrol in the area where India launched airstrikes in Jaba, near Balakot, Pakistan Aqeel Ahmed Aqeel Ahmed

A ceasefire was declared in 2003 between the two countries which has mostly held since. There were hopes at the time of relations improving between the two.

However, this mostly came to nothing. 

The tensions between the two have potentially huge global ramifications since both powers confirmed in the late-90s that they have nuclear capabilities. 

Insurgency 

The disputes between the two governments are bolstered by an ongoing insurgency by Kashmiri militants which kicked off in 1989. 

Many Kashmir citizens resent the rule of India and what they see as the heavy-handed actions of its forces in the region. Many Kashmiris want either independence or to join Pakistan.  

The insurgency is inseparable from the general dispute between the two nations, as India has long accused Pakistan of arming and training Kashmiri militants to carry out attacks in its area.

Pakistan has always denied this. 

So what’s the latest?

2016

Military action has been ramping up in recent years in the region.

In 2016, a young Kashmiri militant leader – 22-year-old Burhan Wani – was killed in clashes with security forces. 

Burhan had a strong social media presence and was very popular. According to the BBC, he is largely credited with reviving and re-legitimising the image of militancy in the area.  

Burhan Muzaffar death Kashmiri protesters throw stones at police during clashes in 2016 following the death of Burhan Wani. Hindustan Times Hindustan Times

His death sparked huge protests and violence which crackdowns and multiple deaths.  

Later in the year, India launched what it calls “surgical strikes” on targets in Pakistani Kashmir.

This came less than two weeks after a militant attack on an Indian army base left 19 soldiers dead. Pakistan denied the strikes took place.

In November, seven Indian soldiers were killed after militants disguised as policemen storm a major army base near the frontier with Pakistan.

2019

The suicide attack on 14 February which left over 40 Indian paramilitary troops dead in the Indian-administered area of Kashmir shocked India, with prime minister Narendra Modi promising a swift response. 

The militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which is based in Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack. 

India said yesterday that it had launched a “preemptive” against what it calls JeM’s “biggest training camp”, killing “a very large number” of militants. 

KASHMIR-SRINAGAR-AIRCRAFT CRASH People and Indian army gather near the wreckage of an Indian aircraft after it crashed at village Garend Kalan of Budgam, about 34 km south of Srinagar city, the summer capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir. Xinhua News Agency / PA Images Xinhua News Agency / PA Images / PA Images

It was India’s first air strike on undisputed Pakistani soil since the 1971 war.

Since then, both Pakistan and India have said they had shot down each other’s warplanes, which is a dramatic escalation. 

Pakistan state media have also released footage purporting to show a captured Indian pilot being interrogated. 

Meanwhile, India’s foreign ministry demanded the “immediate and safe return” of the pilot, calling on Pakistan to ensure no harm comes to him.

So what happens next?

The US, along with China and the European Union, have all called for cooler heads to prevail in the crisis.

Meanwhile, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan has called for talks with India to defuse the situation, warning of the potentially catastrophic consequences should “better sense” not prevail.

“Can we afford any miscalculation with the kind of weapons that we have and you have?” he said in a televised statement.

In a sign of the deepening crisis, Pakistan has also closed its airspace “until further notice”.

At least six airports have been shuttered in India, and a vast area north of New Delhi was closed to civilian flights.

Both sides have tried to play down the threat of war, however both will need to step back from the brink and work to stop the situation deteriorating any further. 

With reporting from Associated Press and © – AFP 2019     

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    Mute Brian Byrne
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:38 PM

    Why not just let the people of Kashmir decide their faith instead of two countries fighting over the region. An internationally backed referendum:

    Join Pakistan
    Join India
    Claim independence

    Funny the amount of problems ex British colonial rule causes in the modern day world.

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    Mute Mushy Peas
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:54 PM

    @Brian Byrne: I hate to bring up history, but no mention of Mountbatten and his partition plan. Very relevant to the initial cause of the division, and would probably make a referendum a very divisive and potentially violent time.

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    Mute Steven C. Schulz
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:57 PM

    India is very irredentist, particularly it believes all the former British India should belong to it.

    The military annexations of Hyderabad and Goa, the questionable referendum that annexed Sikkim, and the continuing attempts to “Indianize” Tamil-speakers are just a few examples.

    It really is a case of British rule being better for the people than local rule.

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    Mute Ian McBride
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:08 PM

    @Brian Byrne: @Brian Byrne: There are several reasons. The first is national pride. Second, if India gained full control of Kashmir it would deny Pakistan a border with China, china has become a major trading partner with Pakistan recently, primarily to gain access to Arabian Sea. Third, the Indus river originates in Himalayan Tibet, it passes through Kashmir before entering Pakistan and supplies 2/3rds of the country. With Pakistans growing population, and industries dependent on water, particularly cotton, it can not afford to lose it.

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    Mute Brian Byrne
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:25 PM

    @Ian McBride: I guess I’m looking at this from a very simple perspective. You only need to look up north to see that a referendum outcome won’t always solve every issue. Unfortunately religion and land are two massive problems in this world which will eventually lead to a lot of destruction. What a strange race we are if only all humans could live in harmony regardless of backrounds.

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    Mute Manbackonboard
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:50 PM

    @Steven C. Schulz: Well isn’t that something the people should decide. The British ruined most countries it occupied.

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    Mute Ashish Uday Lal
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    Feb 27th 2019, 6:30 PM

    @Steven C. Schulz: I’m sure having their GDP comprising 25% of the worlds output being decimated to 3%, 10s of millions starving in the Bengali famine, and innocent people being fired on in Amritsar, all in the space in a little over a century really makes them reminisce about British rule…I don’t think British is best in this or other cases old chap.

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    Mute Mjhint
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    Feb 27th 2019, 8:07 PM

    @Brian Byrne: it’s exactly because Britain is used as an excuse is the reason this conflict can’t be resolved. Britain doesn’t care about this region & the quicker those involved wise up to that & tale responsibility for this current crisis the problem will be resolved. Britain is not the problem here.

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    Mute Pixie McMullen
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:30 PM

    Only today India and Pakistan have swapped downed planes, both claiming with pictures one of each others,
    Be interesting for the Journal to do a report on The militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which by all reports is being funded by Saudi Arabia, their stated goal is to bring all of Kashmir into Pakistan control and introduce Sharia law, before all of Pakistan, Their bigger long term goal is to expel all Hindus and non Muslims from the whole region including India.
    This is where it will gets sticky, with the US and China having different intersets in the region, Does the US side with an old ally that they berate continuously about terrorists (Pakistan) or do they side with India an superpower on the way up , which the US courts for weapons deals.
    China`s ties with India commercially and geographically adds another dimension.
    Hold on to your hats folks

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    Mute Steven C. Schulz
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:44 PM

    The U.S. has been seeking to align India since the second Bush presidency, but also needs Pakistan for access to Afghanistan, so they’ll likely be passive in the event of war.

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    Mute Pixie McMullen
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:48 PM

    @Steven C. Schulz: Not totally passive if it helps take China`s eye off the China sea and Pacific in general, massive chess game going on with the 3 biggest nations all on the bench at the moment

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    Mute Steven C. Schulz
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:00 PM

    @Pixie McMullen: Agreed.

    I meant passive in the sense that they won’t overtly support either side with their own military.

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    Mute Billy McNamara
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:23 PM

    @Pixie McMullen: Not much good holding your hat if you see a mushroom cloud in the atmosphere.Better to start digging a deep bunker and fill it with supplies to last about 2 years at least.

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    Mute alan doyle
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:39 PM

    Good old Saudis in the background again

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    Mute Lad
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    Feb 27th 2019, 7:04 PM

    @alan doyle: I really don’t think people understand that there could be a nuclear bomb explode in the next 24hrs for the first time in 74 years during a war.

    This has come to Cuban missile crisis levels overnight.

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    Mute Kevin O'Donnell
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    Feb 27th 2019, 7:37 PM

    @Lad: I doubt it. Nukes are a defence mechanism not an attack mechanism. They are so powerful, they guarantee the almost total destruction of whoever strikes first.

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    Mute Maxx Power
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:31 PM

    Such a shame. Kashmir is a beautiful part of the world and I would love to visit the region if the tension ever ceases.

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    Mute Paul Freeman
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:10 PM

    Religion.

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    Mute John Mulligan
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:50 PM

    A bit of population control on the way, but unfortunately it will be the innocent who take the hit.

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    Mute Bryan Mc Mahon
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    Feb 27th 2019, 8:12 PM

    This has to be the fault of Brexit

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    Mute paddy
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:37 PM

    Sectarianism on both sides was the quick answer

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    Mute Ian McBride
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:08 PM

    @Brian Byrne: There are several reasons. The first is national pride. Second, if India gained full control of Kashmir it would deny Pakistan a border with China, china has become a major trading partner with Pakistan recently, primarily to gain access to Arabian Sea. Third, the Indus river originates in Himalayan Tibet, it passes through Kashmir before entering Pakistan and supplies 2/3rds of the country. With Pakistans growing population, and industries dependent on water, particularly cotton, it can not afford to lose it.

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    Mute Devilsavocado
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:32 PM

    Surely there isn’t anybody in charge of any of the country’s with nuclear weapons that would be stupid enough to launch them at another nuclear power, we live in a world were that type of stupid doesn’t exist,,, don’t we???

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    Mute Pixie McMullen
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:37 PM

    @Devilsavocado: Both sides have already scrambled mid range Nuclear weapons within range of big cities, plus India have launched their Nuclear sub.
    Experts are saying that it might come to a nuclear strike by both side, tactical with the likelihood of them both striking a HUGE desert on both ends away from populations to demonstrate their willingness to use them , then pulling back to discuss terms.

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    Mute Dean Anderson
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:51 PM

    @Pixie McMullen: I think if India launched a nuke aimed at a desert, or vice versa I don’t think the Pakistani /Indians would wait to see where it was headed hopefully cool heads will prevail but unfortunately I thinks theres plenty on both sides who’d love to launch a few nukes

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    Mute Pixie McMullen
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    Feb 27th 2019, 4:56 PM

    @Dean Anderson: I just finished reading an article about such things, and this struck me
    There remains the risk that the tensions between two bitter rivals will result in the worst-case scenario, Sultan Mehmood Hali, a retired group commander of the Pakistan Air Force, told RT

    “We don’t want this to escalate to mutually assured destruction,” Hali said, while admitting that his nation would be at a disadvantage in an all-out fight.

    “India is the superior power. Its armed forces are three times the size of Pakistan’s. Its economy is much broader. It can sustain a lot of hits,” the Air Force veteran said.

    “Pakistan, being the weaker country, will be on the receiving end.”

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    Mute Dean Anderson
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    Feb 27th 2019, 5:11 PM

    @Pixie McMullen: very scary stuff altogether. ..fingers crossed that sense prevails

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    Mute Ashish Uday Lal
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    Feb 27th 2019, 6:36 PM

    @Pixie McMullen: To launch and land a missile in the Thar (I presume you mean this desert), it would have to launch and land almost simultaneously. Look at a map and see how close Lahore is to Amritsar- neither side would know what was going on and it would be a disaster. Everyone should hope nobody is stupid enough to use a nuclear option…

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