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The Explainer / SoundCloud
HOW WOULD BREXIT affect Irish fridges, shelves, and shops?
We’re just three weeks out from the 29 March, the date by which the UK is due to leave the European Union, and a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever. Although companies are steering clear of speculation, there is a fear about what exists now as a free-flowing and open market could shudder to a halt, at least briefly, because of Brexit.
Ireland, of course, has a close business and trading relationship with the UK, which means Brexit, particularly the uncertainty that it’s brought, has threatened it.
Of particular significance are the Irish businesses that export to the UK, and rely on that UK market to a significant degree: if that market is closed off to them, or becomes less lucrative to export to, then that could threaten businesses to the point of collapse. This means that some foods produced and distributed inside Ireland could be at risk.
So what foods should we be worried about? In short, fresh produce – like agrifoods, fruit and vegetables – that Ireland imports through the UK. This could mean that there is a short period immediately after a no-deal Brexit where these foods could be in short supply.
Ireland also imports quite a bit of confectionery and baked goods from the UK, but because this is preservable it shouldn’t be a problem to source post a no-deal Brexit in the long run – although it could become more expensive.
The UK landbridge
The UK landbridge consists of the roads and ports Irish trucks use to get products to the EU, and vice versa. Around 150,000 Irish trucks use the landbridge a year; two-thirds of Irish goods exporters make use of the UK landbridge to access continental markets.
A further 53% of Irish goods exports (measured in volume) to all countries other than the UK are transported via the UK.
Meats and other ‘perishables’ are massively reliant on the UK landbridge. Although it’s more expensive than circumventing it, it’s also much faster: it takes less than 20 hours from Ireland through Great Britain to the EU, according to a report by the Irish Maritime Development Office (Nov 2018).
Dublin to France would double to 40 hours for direct roll-on, roll-off services. And if there are delays, it will affect the food we import and export.
If there are checks at Dover-Calais, and they take 80 seconds to carry out, that means the tailback of trucks will be “unrecoverable” – if they take 40 seconds, then there will be no change to the free-flowing system we have currently.
But Irish hauliers have said that it’s “unreasonable” to expect that no-deal Brexit checks would take just 40 seconds.
Tariffs
If there’s a no-deal Brexit, it will mean a number of products could be hit by tariffs, which is a tax imposed on goods or services from other countries in order to favour home industries.
Ireland’s biggest exports, beef and cheese, are at particular risk (of the 90% of Irish beef that is exported, 47% goes to the UK, and 87% of Irish cheddar cheese is exported to the UK).
The expectation is that the UK’s trading relationship with other countries would revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules – meaning a set standard of tariffs (though they would have to apply to join).
The items that carry the highest import tariff rates under WTO rules are meat (49%), cereals (45%), sugars and confectionery (42%), and dairy products (31%). Here’s a list of the tariffs by commodity, meaning the extra cost of importing:
For bread, 95% of all flour used actually comes from the UK, so importing that would carry tariffs in a no-deal Brexit. Breadmakers have warned that if there is no deal, tariffs could result in prices increasing by between 10% and 15%, as breadmakers would be paying €172 extra per tonne of flour they import.
Gerald Cunningham, president of the Flour Confectioners and Bakers Association, told TheJournal.ie this when asked if it would mean there would be a shortage of bread: “I’d like to think that the shelves will be full, we don’t want to panic and put more pressure on bread-making businesses.
The main point is that ports need to stay open and free-flowing, the same with the borders.
The all-island economy
Flour, cheese and the meat industries are all based on north-south cooperation.
“Every year 400,000 lambs go South, and 400,000 pigs meet them and go North,” Irish Farmers’ Association president Joe Healy said at its AGM this year, adding that the organisation’s support was for the backstop to remain.
A UK committee was told that farmers in the North were so worried about the Republic of Ireland being closed off to them because of Brexit that they had considered breeding less lambs for this season.
If farmers in the North can’t send lambs down here, because of checks or because it just doesn’t make financial sense for them anymore, there could be a surplus in the North:
“We can’t eat our way out of the problem”, as one representative told TheJournal.ie.
Guinness is also another all-island-of-Ireland product: although it’s brewed at St James’ Gate, it’s then transported up to Belfast where it’s packaged, and some of it is then brought back down to Dublin for export.
Diageo told a UK Business committee that 18,000 of its trucks cross that border a year, “so even small hold-ups to process those truck movements would be really unwelcome”, it also stated in an annual report that it has no intention to change its supply chain because of Brexit.
In 2017, Ireland imported over 72,000 tonnes of potatoes, 62,000 tonnes of cheese, 72,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish and almost 70 million litres of water.
Almost 10,000 tonnes of tea and over 21,000 tonnes of coffee were imported in 2017.
Most of these are non-perishable goods, so if there is a delay, it’s reasonable to assume that the supply chain will catch up with itself eventually.
Shane Hamill of Bord Bia said that companies are going to try to offset costs as best they can.
“You’ll see a lot of companies reformulating their products, shifting their ingredients in order to manage any cost increases.
You might also see rounded pricing – food going for €1 instead of 97 cent.
Fish would also become more expensive. A Netherlands report on fishing in the EU says that if the United Kingdom “completely closed its marine areas, the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium would be affected the most”.
“The most visible impact of Brexit on fish consumption would be expected in Ireland (more than 4% decline), followed by UK. The change in consumption is directly linked to the changes in consumer prices… The strongest increase of fish prices occurs in Ireland, where consumer prices of fish products would grow by more than 9%.
The reason for such a high price reaction is the large dependence on trade in the fish processing sector. In Ireland, about 80% of consumption is sourced by imports out of which 70% comes from Europe, leading to a high sensitivity of consumer prices on trade changes.
Fish production would also decrease, according to the same report.
An interesting note on potatoes and potato seeds: Michael Creed, the Minster for Agriculture, Food and the Marine told the Dáil that seed potatoes are banned from entering the EU from third countries.
Traders have been forewarned about this, he said, and all advice to Irish growers is to ensure that UK seed is supplied before the end of March in order to facilitate the 2019 planting season.
“There will then be at least another 9 months before the 2020 planting season for the European Commission to consider requests from the UK for amendment to Annex III of the Plant Health directive based on a detailed scientific justification as to why the amendment is warranted,” he said – so they’re putting that off for later.
A good by-product of Brexit, however, is that it may get people thinking about how they get their food so cheaply and so quickly.
“I think people are starting to pay a little bit more attention to what is on their shelves,” Shane Hamill says, “so there’s certainly a new appreciation not only for how the food arrives and how quickly it takes, but also where it’s coming from and that’s probably a good thing.”
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If they’re willing to use violence before they get to port, what’ll they be up to when they get settled. Send them straight back.
@Patrick Agnew: to be raped?
@Patrick Agnew: Whatever happens, don’t consider why someone might risk highjack a ship to avoid being sent back to where they had fled from… That sort of humane thinking hasn’t been a feature on thejournal.ie comment section since red thumbs were removed and toxic hate took over this site.
@Lisa Jones: what!
@Ciarán Ó Fallúin: believe it or not, not everyone has the same opinion as you. So I’ll continue to write comments whether you like them or not. Also, returning someone with a history of using violence to their country of origin is a valid point of discussion and is certainly not toxic.
@Lisa Jones: ?????
@Lisa Jones: Lisa, you seem to be ignoring the fact that they hijacked a ship.
@Lisa Jones: huh??
@Patrick Agnew: I can’t even imagine how desperate you’d have to be to hijack a ship, luckily I’m privileged enough that I’ll probably never know. I doubt many will agree with me but I genuinely just see this as a cry for help.
@Lisa Jones: are you saying that they are likely to be raped in Africa? That sounds kinda racist!
@Lisa Jones: says who ?
@Patrick Agnew: there was no violence mentioned nevernind anything about the history/background of the migrants. It won’t do their cases any good and I’d certainly have reservations on them but I can understand how a situation like this arises when they are fleeing desperate conditions. If I was being persecuted for my religion etc or simply am dirt poor with no employment prospects, I wouldn’t want to be brought back to a lawless country to be persecuted some more.
@Damian Kelly: The United Nations, it’s in the article above, should have gone to Specsavers.
@Jen McCartney: I see where you’re coming from Jen but it’s only going to inspire copycat hijackings and discourage other ships from picking up migrants.
@Bruce van der Gutschmitzer: they must have used violence or threatened it to seize control of the ship. There was also no mention of their country of origin. So it’s not correct to assume they’re fleeing from a war torn country.
@Patrick Agnew: Don’t worry about it Patrick, stay hiding under your bed and the bad men won’t find you in your safe space.
@Orla Smith: can I have a few of those pills Orla?
@Sean Murphy: Maybe do some research on that. 40% of women will be raped based on current stats. Is it racist if it’s true? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sexual_violence_in_South_Africa
@Patrick Agnew: As it isn’t right to assume that all of the migrants on the ship used violence or have a history of violence as you assumed. I would assume that they used intimidation as a means of taking control of the ship. If they used violence it would have been mentioned. If you read what I said in full then You’d see that I also said that they are fleeing from poverty too so there’s your balance. As well as the persecution they face in lawless Libya.
@Lisa Jones: Their country is what they made it.Do you suggest letting all of them in?
@Lisa Jones: Have you taken your tablets, Lisa?
@Bruce van der Gutschmitzer: how else would they have hijacked the ship? I’d say it’s fairly certain that they used violence.
@Lisa Jones: they didn’t commandeer a ship without menaces, so frankly they’re no better. Straight back.
@Ciarán Ó Fallúin: just because you have a different opinion doesn’t make others’ one hateful : grow up.
@Martin Lodewyks:
Similar stats to Sweden by the looks of it.
@Martin Lodewyks: I read that. Despicable.
This has to be fake news, I don’t believe it. I was told by Sinn Fein and Pb4P that all asylum seekers were cuddly teddy bears and future doctors and engineers. The Journal.ie are peddling far right conspiracy theories!
Not Europe’s problem. Deport
* Italys far right interior minister * so says associated press.
@Derek Durkin: ‘Economic migrants who illegally paid smugglers to bring them to Europe who then hijacked by force a boat that saved them from drowning can not come to our country.’ Wow easy up there Adolf, that’s far right.
@Derek Durkin: Associated Press and Reuters, which are the go to for copy and paste journalism for all the press around the world, were purchased by banking dynasties in the late 18th and 19th century, as reported by independent media at the time.
@Derek Durkin: So says Breitbart, Fake News, amiright? https://www.breitbart.com/news/italys-far-right-salvini-calls-for-populist-european-spring/
@Orla Smith: breitbart ain’t no different from the rest…..all playing divisive identity politics.
Get Tom Hanks. He’ll sort this out
(((Cultural diversity)))
They’re still calling them migrants!
“I am the captain now”
Sometimes I think you have to admire the resourcefulness of some people
@Papa Benzo: i agree. The Captain was going beyond his call of duty buy rescuing these migrants and bringing them back to the nearest port. Clearly the migrants used force and made them change course. This type of behaviour won’t do any favours for future economic migrants who expect to be picked up by privately owned ships passing by.
@Doubtchya Boy!: The captain did not go beyond the call of duty, marine law makes rescue of stricken vessels obligatory. If he had refused aid and they drowned he would be prosecuted.
@Papa Benzo: this particular group should be dragged back to Tripoli , letting them succeed sets a very dangerous precedent. If it becomes an MO, Eventually all distress calls out there would be ignored, for crew safety. That’s not good for anyone, especially future migrants.
@Brendan Hughes: the obligation only applies where there is no risk to your own crew. You won’t find a cargo vessel captain getting charged for ignoring a distress call in Somali waters, for obvious reasons.
@Brendan Hughes: not after today they won’t. They can rightly claim the defence of not putting his crew and ship in peril.
So, to thwart the hijackers who wanted to be taken to Malta, the ship was stormed by special forces and – brought to Malta?
The US, UK and France – take a bow, look at the basket case you have made of Libya, rape, warlords fighting for control of the resources and open slave markets.
Those 3 countries should be made take EVERY refugee fleeing from it
@Pixie McMullen: Nothing America is better at than going to a country far away, taking a dump, stealing their sh_it and f_cking off again. They should’ve taken the 3 million Syrians not Germany.
And yet they’ll STILL be allowed – UNREAL
“The European Union announced yesterday that it will suspend ship patrols that have rescued ten of thousands of migrants in the Mediterranean and brought them back to Italy” Finally the EU, mainly Germany, Sweden and Italy have realised that allowing a never ending flow of economic migrants from Africa into Europe will have a devastating effect in diluting European Culture, never mind the violence that comes with them too!
Don’t you just love all the pontificators on here. Thinking they have the vaguest idea what it’s like to be desperate enough for help that they are willing to hijack a vessel. Nobody is actually justifying the behaviour. But all behaviour has meaning, maybe try advancing your understanding of the human condition and the fact that in desperate situations people make desperate choices.
@LD: sounds like you’re quite the pontificate yourself. Hypocrisy much ?
@LD: You’re an absolute knob
Interesting URL. https://www.thejournal.ie/malta-shit-valetta-4564726-Mar2019/
The Journal’s URL for this story is apt from the migrants point of view.
The Journal’s URL for this story is apt.
thejournal.ie/malta-shit-valetta-4564726-Mar2019/
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