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A Brexistential crisis: So what happens now?

The best answer to that question is: “F**k knows. I’m past caring. It’s like the living dead in here.”

Brexit banner

SO, WHAT IN heavens happens now?

Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, negotiated over a period of two years between her officials and the EU, has been rejected for the third time in three months.

Despite intense lobbying by the Prime Minister’s team, the deal was defeated by a majority of 58; her deal was previously defeated by 230 votes, and then by 149 votes. 

As her deal is defeated, the default leave date is now 12 April.

If her deal had been approved, the UK would have left the EU under the terms in the Withdrawal Agreement by 22 May, the day before EU elections begin. 

After her vote was rejected by 344 MPs, May said exasperatedly: “I fear we are reaching the limits of the process in this House”.

So what are the options, and how likely are they?

More indicative votes

On Monday, April Fools’ Day, the UK parliament will hold a second day of indicative votes; the last round of votes held on Wednesday resulted in the parliament rejecting all 8 options put forward.

John Bercow Commons Press Office Commons Press Office

But some of those options – such as a Customs Union which was only rejected by six votes – may have a chance of being approved by MPs now that May’s deal has been rejected.

It was negotiated with the European Union that if May’s deal was rejected, the UK would have to decide what was to happen next.

After the result in the House of Commons, European Council President Donald Tusk said that he was calling an emergency meeting of EU heads of state on 10 April. 

It’s intended that the UK will suggest what should happen next to the EU, and the European Council’s 27 leaders will discuss whether to approve that option on 10 April (with the UK due to leave the EU two days later, remember).

Britain Brexit Frank Augstein Frank Augstein

Another extension

The option to extend Article 50, which would mean delaying the date the UK is due to leave the EU, has already been taken (Brexit day was meant to be today).

But UK and EU politicians are worried about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit, so in order to avoid that, they might give the UK another longer extension in order for them to get their House in order.

Another extension would most likely mean that the UK would remain in the EU during the European elections that are being held between 23 and 26 May (Ireland’s election is on 24 May). Theresa May has said that this would almost certainly mean that the UK would have to take part in European elections.

The EU has said that this would have to happen because if the UK were to remain in the EU but not take part in the election, there’s a fear that they could be vulnerable to legal challenges taken by citizens in the UK who want to exercise their right to vote.

Brexit A disagreement between Brexit demonstrators at Westminster today. Kirsty O'Connor Kirsty O'Connor

If they did take part in the European elections, Nigel Farage has indicated that he would run as a Brexit Party candidate, as would other pro-Brexit advocates. This would mean a stronger pro-Brexit presence in the European Parliament, which neither side wants but could well happen.

The Withdrawal Agreement

Renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement is the suggestion made by some of those who have been voting against the deal: including the DUP, former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, and ERG member Steve Baker. 

They are calling for the backstop specifically to be renegotiated, with Baker saying that there were many elements to the Withdrawal Agreement that were bad, but claimed that the backstop “means we’ll indefinitely be trapped”.

The likelihood is quite low though. Leading figures of the European Union have said that the negotiation is finished, and they can only provide legal assurances on what has already been agreed.

“The European Council has agreed unanimously that the Withdrawal Agreement will not be re-opened,” Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said in the immediate aftermath of the deal being rejected, repeating comments Theresa May made to the House of Commons minutes before.

It’s also possible that the Withdrawal Agreement could be put forward for a fourth vote next week…

Theresa May told parliament after her deal was rejected that she would still push for an “orderly exit” on 22 May; Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn then pushed her to accept that her Brexit deal isn’t good enough to pass, and should be left to one side.

She didn’t really do that.

Instead, one of the likely scenarios being put forward is that if a customs union gets a majority in the House of Commons on Monday, May could put her deal back to a vote – with an amendment that a customs union could be included as part of it.

It would then be for the European Council to approve a deal with a customs union, an option which they would be happy with as the EU wants as close a relationship as possible with the UK.

General election, second referendum, and revoking Article 50 

If a longer extension is granted, a general election and a second referendum are increasingly likely, as the UK establishment would have the time to organise them.

House of Commons Commons Press Office Commons Press Office

Earlier in the week, May promised that she would step aside if her deal was passed today, sparking talk of who her successor could be. If there was a Tory leadership, it could take up to 6 weeks from start to finish.

A general election could also be called: this could rearrange the numbers in the House of Commons enough so that there would be a clear majority for a type of Brexit. If a snap election was called, it would take around two months to organise.

In 2017, a snap election was held on 8 June after Theresa May called for it on 18 April (it was this election that lost May her majority in the House of Commons and led to a coalition with the DUP…)

After an online petition gathered almost 6 million signatures, questions have also been raised on whether the British government could revoke Article 50, thereby undoing the entire Brexit process.

A European court has already decided that the British government has the power to do this, but May has so far refused to entertain the idea, saying that it would weaken people’s trust in democracy if she were to unilaterally reverse what the majority of the British public voted for.

No deal

A “no-deal scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario”, the European Commission has said in a statement after the vote.

Despite the majority of MPs voting against a no-deal Brexit, the default position is currently that on 12 April at 11pm, the UK will leave the EU without a deal. There are a number of serious ramifications of that, for Ireland especially.

And even in a no-deal scenario, the UK would still have to hold negotiations with the EU eventually about its new relationship, so even in the walk-away scenario, they would still need to hold negotiations to try to strike a deal.

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58 Comments
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    Mute Kieron Meehan
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:43 PM

    The people of the six counties voted to remain. Who represents them?

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    Mute Laura Walsh
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:51 PM

    @Kieron Meehan: certainly not the DUP

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    Mute Brianán McBride
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:03 PM

    @Kieron Meehan: DUP canvassed to leave now he is saying maybe they should stay. Sinn Féin did feck all canvassing until close to the vote when they canvassed to remain, they came across as clueless.

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    Mute Brianán McBride
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:05 PM

    @Brianán McBride: # Nigel Dodds of DUP

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:20 PM

    @Kieron Meehan: many of those chose not to be represented … By voting for and electing abstentionist Westminster candidates. So what they think or want can have no bearing on the brexit outcome unless their elected representatives choose to take up their seats in Westminster and take part in the debate and vote.

    Everyone can take their own view on this principal and tactic but it is my opinion that the debate and votes in Westminster concern Northern Ireland’s future and maybe taking part in the debate at least would be better than allowing the DUP to represent them and their constituents on this, effectively, constitutional issue.

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    Mute Caped Crusader
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:26 PM

    @Kieron Meehan: and Roscommon voted against same sex marriage but it doesn’t mean they can outlaw it in that county. NI is part of the UK and the vote was UK wide. Unfortunate for the North but that is the way it works. After any vote a large number of people will be left unhappy but majority rules

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    Mute Kieran
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:09 PM

    @Caped Crusader: ah now, down with that sort of conmon sense around here. You’ll get no thanks for it

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    Mute Paul Shepherd
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    Mar 30th 2019, 4:33 AM

    @Kieron Meehan: abstentionists and brexiteers apparently……in other words, nobody.

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    Mute Geoff Dolan
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    Mar 30th 2019, 8:36 AM

    @Caped Crusader:

    However, Northern Ireland. Scotland and Wales aren’t mere counties of England; they are constituent nations of the United Kingdom.

    A UK-wide referendum should have initiated another voting mechanism for an important decision such as Brexit, instead of the people of Northern Ireland and Scotland being hostage to a first-past-the-post system that favours only the interests, and/or whims thereof, of English voters

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    Mute Rory Quinn
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    Mar 30th 2019, 10:30 AM

    @Kieron Meehan: unfortunately for them that idiot Foster and the DUP. Sinn Fein should make an exception and attend parliament in London.

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    Mute iohanx
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:55 PM

    They need to leave with no deal and let it all unfold. Be done with it.

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    Mute bmul
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:49 PM

    @iohanx: and we get hammered great idea

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    Mute iohanx
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:39 PM

    @bmul: it’s not an idea.

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    Mute wattsed56
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    Mar 29th 2019, 10:09 PM

    @iohanx: That’s exactly what folks that voted for Brexit wanted all along. Despite BBC, Sky, Ch4 News etc…

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    Mute bmul
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    Mar 30th 2019, 4:10 AM

    @wattsed56: so you speak for 17.4 million

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    Mute iohanx
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    Mar 30th 2019, 5:41 AM

    @bmul: no.

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    Mute Skybloo
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:59 PM

    The MPs, and the British public have no clue what their EU membership entails.
    At the moment, Conservative MPs are signed up to a crash course on what the EU customs union is before indicative votes on Monday. I kid you not … at 11th hour 59th minute they decide to educate themselves a little bit

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    Mute Devilsavocado
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:09 PM

    How about we just let them do whatever the hell they are going to do and realise that we really don’t have a say in the matter, give it time, they will make a mess of the whole thing and shortly afterScotland will vote to leave the UK and will, and then a majority of people and business in the north will realise the union is not the best place to be and a united Ireland will be a few short years away,,, this Brexit could easily be the death of Great Britain,,,,get the popcorn people,, we could be watching a big moment in history unfold….(maybe) :)

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    Mute David A. Murray
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:47 PM

    The reason I’d advocate a 2nd referendum (and I accept that the arguments given against doing this in comments here are valid) is to ask the public if they have any confidence in their politicians to sort this absolute mess out. Also, can David Cameron be placed in a glass booth in the House of Commons during Brexit sessions?

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    Mute sean o'dhubhghaill
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:50 PM

    @David A. Murray: Good suggestion for Cameron. This is ALL his fault.

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    Mute Martin Meyler
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    Mar 29th 2019, 6:51 PM

    @David A. Murray: or possibly the stocks, outside Parliament?

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    Mute Roy Dowling
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:12 PM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: actually it’s the 17 odd million who voted yes fault.

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    Mute Niall Ó Cofaigh
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:27 PM

    @David A. Murray: I wonder how a vote now would pan out. Most people under the age of 21 now did not have a vote. That could be over 2 million added to the group of people that tended to vote stay . And some of the older people have passed on and there was a greater tendency for older people to vote go.

    Interesting idea that the outcome could be different even if no one changed their vote but because the electorate changed so much.

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    Mute Barry Somers
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:42 PM

    @sean o’dhubhghaill: easy to blame Cameron.

    The real fault lays square at the feet of UK citizens, they fault in the one job they had…. To education themselves.

    As voters we have one job, research and understand. If you vote based on quick sound bites and daily mail headlines you are a idiot.

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    Mute Vocal Outrage
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:48 PM

    @Roy Dowling: I thought the original yes campaign became the remain campaign as the question was changed

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    Mute Stevie Doran
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:51 PM

    @David A. Murray: we’ve had 2nd referendums, no problem

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    Mute Barry Somers
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    Mar 29th 2019, 8:07 PM

    @Stevie Doran: indeed we have.

    Two refs with the same name (nice) but we voted on different conditions

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    Mute sean o'dhubhghaill
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    Mar 29th 2019, 8:55 PM

    @Barry Somers: Agreed. Fair Point.

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    Mute Liam Carlin
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    Mar 29th 2019, 8:58 PM

    @Barry Somers: exactly , that’s why democracy doesn’t work , people should have t take a test before they’re allowed to vote

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    Mute Liam Carlin
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:01 PM

    @Barry Somers: No we didn’t , we voted no to the fires treaty and voted yes to an AMENDED treaty. The uk vote was a simple in or out vote. There’s no way to formulate a wording which doesn’t make a second vote undemocratic

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    Mute Barry Somers
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:42 PM

    @Liam Carlin: you vote on May’s deal or remain. Very simple.

    Ref outcome in the UK is not legally binding anyway, but at least the vote would finally give a clear direction to the aimless UK government.

    Right now they are a laughing stock of the world

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    Mute Stevie Doran
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:05 PM

    Just retire Theresa, you’ll never win. Go on a cruise and become a local MP, enjoy the rest of your life away from the toxic cesspit of British politics.

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    Mute Chemical Brothers
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    Mar 29th 2019, 8:17 PM

    @Stevie Doran: She’s playing a blinder

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    Mute Brian McDonnell
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:12 PM

    I fear I predicted that there would always be a Hard Brexit, that the UK is far too evenly split over remain or leave, with far too many factions in either camp, if Parliament is at dead lock, then that is just a true representation of it’s people.
    Just like the Titanic (which incidentally sank on the 15th April 1912, not the 12th as per the article) the UK’s economy is soon too go down in very chilly waters, and it will be the poorest who will suffer disproportionately.

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    Mute iohanx
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:27 PM

    @Brian McDonnell: Any half wit politician knows the score over there. Sitting on fences because if/when the exit with no deal arrives there will be a new political movement and possible party to Join the EU and they’ll have a referendum in their manefesto knowing full well there are 16 million votes to be had.

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    Mute iohanx
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:30 PM

    manifesto

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    Mute wattsed56
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    Mar 29th 2019, 10:12 PM

    @Brian McDonnell: Why will the poorer suffer?
    Facts? – just after the referendum the country was supposed to be up creek without a paddle.

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    Mute Adam Kelly
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    Mar 29th 2019, 10:52 PM

    @wattsed56: Britain is already losing 1 billion pounds per week in lost economic growth as a result of brexit.
    That’s why.

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    Mute Chris hancock
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    Mar 30th 2019, 11:37 AM

    @Adam Kelly: a speculative metric then. What does it lose in sovereignty per week?

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    Mute Doire
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:51 PM

    As a northerner we/I have come to accept that the failed project that is Northern Ireland must collapse to its knees in order to achieve a united Ireland. Its well on its way.

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    Mute Oliver Jumelle
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:06 PM

    Titanic hit the Berg at 11:40pm on April 14th. she sank at 2:20am April 15. Do your research!

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    Mute Mick Rooney (TIPM)
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:24 PM

    @Oliver Jumelle: Correct. April 14th (ship’s time). A rather clumsy and foolish mistake to try and be clever. If you are going to make such an allusion in an article – might help to do basic fact-checking.

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    Mute Sean O'C
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    Mar 29th 2019, 8:28 PM

    Its like watching a slow motion car crash combined with sticking your finger in your eye again, and again, and again.

    Jez, you have to hand the members of the House of Commons, they get a gold medal for feckin it up !!

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    Mute John Caplis
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:58 PM

    Let them eat Walkers crisps!

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    Mute ianglen
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:05 PM

    Donald Tusk’s going “tsk tsk”.

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    Mute Micheal S. O' Ceilleachair
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    Mar 29th 2019, 8:09 PM

    @ianglen:

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    Mute THE DUKE
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    Mar 29th 2019, 11:28 PM
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    Mute TheWhitelunalion
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:01 PM

    The UK MPs are a absolute disgrace they are more worried with lining their pockets than doing what the people want, which is to leave the EU. If there is an election , the people should vote for UKIP. the same as we should vote for Irexit.

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    Mute bmul
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:21 PM

    @TheWhitelunalion: troll

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    Mute Mary Cull
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    Mar 29th 2019, 9:39 PM

    @bmul: talking to yourself again.?

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    Mute TheWhitelunalion
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    Mar 30th 2019, 11:27 AM

    @bmul: I believe your a Russian bot.

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    Mute wattsed56
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    Mar 29th 2019, 10:17 PM

    Might want to wait until Angela Merkel arrives in Dublin next week. She isn’t coming for a trip around Temple Bar. She doesn’t normally travel a lot btw.. Maybe something to have a chat about Leo

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    Mute John Caplis
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    Mar 29th 2019, 7:58 PM

    Let them eat Walkers crisps!

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    Mute THE DUKE
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    Mar 29th 2019, 10:19 PM

    Getting bored of watching this crazy brexit. Just leave

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    Mute Johnny Conway
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    Mar 30th 2019, 9:37 PM

    Looks like it will drag on for another few years of defeated votes and misery.
    The living dead alright or the walking dead for the media news viewers…

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    Mute sandra clifford
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    Mar 30th 2019, 8:31 PM

    The ppl voted to leave the EU so let them go

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    Mute Nedwerd
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    Mar 30th 2019, 12:33 AM

    That last paragraph should read

    No deal

    A “no-deal scenario on 12 April is now a likely scenario”, the European Commission has said in a statement after the vote…although no one really believes this and it is widely known that this is the EU playing hardball.

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