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Ivan Ewart

Katy Hayward 50 days out from Brexit, could a Northern Ireland-specific backstop be the key to a deal?

What was anathema yesterday is apparently the favoured option today, writes Katy Hayward.

NOT FOR THE first time in the Brexit process, there’s a strong sense of ‘déjà vu’ in the air.

Also familiar at this stage is the accompanying feeling of bewilderment.

In this case, it is the Northern Ireland-specific backstop. Except we’re not going to hear it called the ‘backstop’ – if anyone wants it to have even a glimmer of a chance of getting across the starting line when it comes to getting support from the MPs (when and if they have a chance to vote on it).

And we can be pretty sure what this Northern Ireland-specific arrangement will entail.

Why?

Because this is what the EU had proposed over a year ago (in March 2018). And it is what Theresa May had then rejected in the most forceful terms.

“No British Prime Minister could ever agree to it,” she complained.

Put simply, the backstop meets the need to avoid a hard Irish border after Brexit by avoiding the need for checks and controls on goods moving across that border. Those checks and controls are necessary if the UK and Ireland apply different rules in relation to customs and standards for goods.

The Northern Ireland-specific backstop, as was proposed in the early version of the withdrawal agreement, managed this by keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union and in the EU’s single market for goods.

It also has Northern Ireland in the EU’s VAT and excise regime, to keep things as smooth as possible on that front too. No declarations, no tariffs, no quotas, no new checks, no new controls across the Irish border. But the flip side of this is that these things would apply to goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

The reason May gave at the time for objecting in such forceful terms to this proposal was that it undermined the ‘constitutional integrity’ of the UK. Given that the security of Northern Ireland’s place in the UK is the very essence of unionism, it is unsurprising that the DUP quickly followed her out in virulent opposition to it.

As May’s team went back to Brussels to continue to work on the withdrawal agreement, the DUP continued to feel unnerved by the very premise of a backstop for Northern Ireland/Ireland.

By the time May and Juncker shook hands on the withdrawal agreement – and its all-UK version of a backstop – the DUP were far from ready for compromise.

The all-UK version of the backstop was clearly intended to reassure unionists. It did this by lifting the possibility of a customs border in the Irish Sea by constructing a shared UK-EU customs territory.

In so doing, it disgusted hardcore Brexiteers in Britain as it contradicted a primary reason for Brexit in the first place. If the UK was in a customs territory with the EU then it was constrained from jetting off to make its own trade deals purely on its own terms.

For many other areas of the backstop, however, things remained as originally conceived: Northern Ireland in the single market for goods (including agriculture) and the EU’s VAT and excise regime, with state aid rules applying.

Circular debate 

The degree to which differences between Britain and Northern Ireland expand after Brexit (including in the rather specific areas of toy safety, exhaust emissions or beef
quality) was always going to depend on how close London was willing to stay to the EU.

Hence the nervousness of unionists on the very notion of a backstop.

Whilst this all-UK backstop gained broad support from the public, business and civic community in Northern Ireland (all of whom are keen for certainty as the UK leave the EU), many unionists remained firmly unconvinced.

Even though the backstop was stressed to be an insurance policy rather than a landing point, in essence it seemed to prioritise keeping the region close to Ireland over that of its closeness to Britain.

In the win-lose logic of Northern Ireland politics, the whole debate has thus become less about the technical gains and risks of the legal clauses of the Protocol concerned and much more about the sovereignty and integrity of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Hence the circular debate.

So why is a Northern Ireland-only backstop once again in vogue?

Partly it is because of time.

Johnson’s plan of forcing an election prior to Brexit day has been kiboshed. He has hung his reputation on getting the UK out of the EU on 31 October.

If this is without a deal, the ensuing economic and political upheaval could well see his premiership be one of the shortest in British history.

If it is with a deal, he needs to go for one that the EU could agree to quickly – and it is more than ready to blow the dust off its original backstop plans.

The bigger question – as always – is whether UK MPs would be prepared to vote for it.

Key to this is whether they agree with (or even care about) the previous Prime Minister’s assertion that a customs border in the Irish Sea is incompatible with the union.

The DUP’s choice would be to own it or to swallow it.

Either way, they may well be wondering how much of a difference their opinion could
possibly make amid the current maelstrom of Westminster.

Katy Hayward is a senior fellow of The UK in a Changing Europe centre based at Queen’s University Belfast. 

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17 Comments
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    Mute Maurice Danaher
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:28 PM

    Current national debt is circa €190B. Is Noonan giving up on getting the ECB to finance the Bank debt and get it deducted from the €190B. This was one of FG’s election promises. The real national debt figure is probably close to €500B if we were to accrue all PRSI pension liabilities. Yesterday’s article in the Sunday Times is frightening on this.

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    Mute Winston Teardrops
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:33 PM

    Why would they include future liabilities? At that rate you could bring future expected revenue into the equation!

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    Mute Emily Elephant
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:40 PM

    Because as from 2017, we have to account for unfunded liabilities to give a true picture of national debt. Just as companies have had to do for years. There’s no real difference between a bond you have to repay and a pension you’re committed to paying, except in accounting terms.

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    Mute Maurice Danaher
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:01 PM

    Well said. Couldn’t have put it better myself.

    19
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    Mute Kate Ellen Egan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:04 PM

    Where will the money to fund these early repayments come from ? I know it’s a stupid question but does anyone know the answer ?

    11
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    Mute Robin Tobin
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:11 PM

    Maurice the minister is doing lip service for the next election. Europe is in receivership and has told Noonan no to what you have noted. It would be nice but our politician didn’t talk hard they were the good boys in the class. So Europe expects them to keep paying.

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    Mute Alien8
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:15 PM

    They will be coming from 15 year loans/bond issues so the banks will be lending this money to repay them back early.

    10
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    Mute VoiceOfVanguard
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:23 PM

    Wait ’til Ireland doesn’t get the retroactive bank recapitalization.

    And when – not if – new international corporate tax rules take effect from 2016 (OECD), at least €50 billion, or half the annual value of services exports will be vapourized.

    Plus, some multi-nationals have also said they will leave when that happens i.e. when they have to start paying a lot more corporation tax back home on top of high wages in Ireland.

    Hold on to your tin hats.

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    Mute Richard Rodgers
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:28 PM

    Emily
    Perhaps now the penny might drop when we consider the point John Bruton was making when discussing such liabilities recently.!
    He was massively abused on this site when his opinion about defaulting by the State on pensions etc when the alternative was bankruptcy .
    How quickly we shoot the messenger in Ireland rather than trying to deal with realities.

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    Mute SeanieRyan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:14 PM

    Still think that a debt deal will have to be done.

    The EU live in a fantasy world where real economic reality is denied and put on long finger.

    They blew their chance to resolve the Euro crisis.

    11
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    Mute Ben Gunn
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:32 PM

    That would apply to unfunded civil service pensions but not to PRSI pensions. That liability is subject to year by year legislation and, in theory, could be reduced or abolished by a new Finance Act. It won’t happen of course, but the possibilty means that it is not a reckonable long term debt.

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    Mute Stephen Brady
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:47 PM

    What do you mean give up, they didn’t even ask for feck sake

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    Mute Kerry Blake
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 9:48 PM

    ohhh I feel another seismic shift coming on….

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    Mute Huggy Bear
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    Sep 8th 2014, 9:12 AM

    Property tax
    Water charges
    USC
    ….any if these terms familiar to you????

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    Mute IrishGravyTrain
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:21 PM

    No financial penalty for paying off loans early. Ha ha. We should be getting a discount for paying early.

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    Mute Winston Teardrops
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:30 PM

    Don’t get into finance. I can tell by this one comment that it’s not for you.

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    Mute Tony Skillington
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:51 PM

    We should never have had them in the first place…ffs

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    Mute Peter King
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:23 PM

    Getting a bit annoyed with this sycophantic attitude the government has with Europe.

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    Mute John Deegan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:38 PM

    What, you feel no surge of patriotic pride when our minister begs the faceless financiers to kindly allow us to give us a big ball of cash?

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    Mute John Deegan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:39 PM

    * you a big ball of cash *

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    Mute Mike O Neill
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:00 PM
    7
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    Mute Richard Rodgers
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:39 PM

    Peter.
    What a brain and what a genius. Please tell us how yo can save the State a cool three hundred and seventy five million Euro a year as proposed by Minister Noonan so that we don’t have to politely ask our creditors for agreement to vary the terms of our Bailout.
    You must be a whizz with figures and I envy the confidence with which you stride across these pages.
    I showed your comments to a colleague and I could see straight away that he misunderstands you. In tact what he said about you couldn’t be printed here but all great men Peter suffer from such slingshots!

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    Mute Paul Mc
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:09 PM

    @Rodgers as per usual your wisdom knows no bounds you and your comments are wasted on the journal.
    Its time you took up your true vocation and that in my humble oppinion is that of chief Fine Gael ass wipe.

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    Mute Richard Rodgers
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:22 PM

    Paul
    Thanks! Your opinion in your own words is indeed humble and it is quite clear that you never aspired beyond that though instinct probably told you that there was enough material in you to heft a Sinn Fein shovel but you would need to be told what to do after that.
    The world needs simple folk Paul and at least you have recognised that!

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    Mute Stephen Grehan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:37 PM

    Well said Paul Mc. When Rodgers is in the company of Edna its like a scene from the film The Human Centipede.

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    Mute Thomas Newell
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 9:09 PM

    hows life as the chief arse kisser and male cheer leader to enda and his brigade richard cos clearly you are one of them patriots big nose hogan was on about

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    Mute Kerry Blake
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 9:54 PM

    So Richard hows that seismic shift of Enda the statesman performing these days?

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    Mute Richard Rodgers
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    Sep 3rd 2014, 12:01 AM

    Kerry
    Whaaaaaaaaat?

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    Mute E=MC2
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:58 PM

    When the cost of Noonan’s very generous minster’s pension to which he does not contribute a cent is added to the debt it could be the last straw that breaks the taxpayer’s back.

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    Mute Phillip Hogan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:23 PM

    Wow, we are so lucky.

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    Mute Alien8
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:53 PM

    Looking at the returns, it is all rosy for Noonan – revenue’s new mantra is to suck every last penny of savings and profit out of small business and their employees and to present it as a gift to some unelected ex-politicians and expect a pat on his obnoxious head.

    “Look what I brought you – someone else’s debt, maybe I’ve ruined a few small businesses and taxed earnings and savings from Irish people to the hilt, but as long as we’re all happy let’s make this look like good news to the ‘media’ – you’ll print it like that, you property funded news website”…

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    Mute Ger Ryan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 7:29 PM

    At the end of the 1st 1/4 2008 this country was heading towards a deficit of 22bn euros. In d last 5 yrs we have undertaken a huge social experimenr in how to balance d books without strikes/riots etc and we have nearly made it. There is huge credit due to fg and lab and enormous credit due to d dept of finance and public expenditure.

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    Mute Stephen Brady
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:52 PM

    Why should lab and fg get any credit. Ff told them what to do before they got booted out.

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    Mute Colin Mccormack
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    Sep 3rd 2014, 3:53 AM

    How is it any credit to them, it’s a credit to the irish people not the politicians. The politicians didn’t stop riots they hid away in Leinster house and quietly stripped us of our pride and dignity and left most of us demoralised and close to bankruptcy. Suicides are through the roof, let’s see these magnificent politicians of yours deal with that elephant in the roof. Crime.? It’s bandit country in ireland again, those shower deserve no credit for anything.

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    Mute Ger Ryan
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    Sep 3rd 2014, 7:22 AM

    The simple fact if the matter is that this country of 4.5million people withdrew over 16bn from circulation over the past 5 years. Politicans put their names forward as spokespeople for that. You didnt. You come on forums and talk abt how bad it is. Pokiticans arent stupid or even greedy anymore. They all know the suicide numbers, the high taxes, the unemployment but they still put their names forward. You didnt. it is easier spew vitriol from d sidelines

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    Mute Alan O'connor
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:06 PM

    More bad news for the Shinners. Tax take up. Ahead of forecast.

    Where are the Shinners anyway?

    I suppose it’s hard for them to spin positives into negatives. Especially when there’s an election coming up. Just doesn’t appeal to voters.

    But it’s all they have.

    21
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    Mute Thomas Newell
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 9:13 PM

    so anyone that has a different opinion to them muppets in power are shinners………explains the mental state of the cheerleaders for the likes of the FG/LB/FF crowd on hear…..deluded one trick ponies who believe anything that comes out of the lot in the dail

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    Mute John Hartigan
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:08 PM

    Election spew has started

    21
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    Mute Nosmo King
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:11 PM

    ” Noonan ” and ” charm ” in the same sentence !! . It is just so wrong, Jack Horgan-Jones. Just so, so wrong.

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    Mute VinHeffer89
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:05 PM

    Will Mr Noonan be dancing suggestively for Mario Draghi et al as well?

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    Mute Susan Adair Farrelly
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 8:54 PM

    Charm?? God help Europe…

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    Mute Jarlath Murphy
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 5:41 PM

    Jam?………………………………..
    ‘…………………………?…………….
    ……..?………………………………….

    NEVER!

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    Mute DM
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    Sep 2nd 2014, 6:16 PM

    Why was my two comments deleted?

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    Mute Brehon Law
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    Sep 3rd 2014, 8:16 AM

    Just in time for the general election!

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