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PLANS ARE BEING drawn up in London for a united Ireland. A team of academics, based in University College London, are starting a new project that hopes to investigate how a border poll could be designed, held and implemented.
With Brexit and fears over a hard border raising the prospect of a united Ireland, Irish, British and Northern Ireland academics are working together to consider how a border poll could be conducted.
A report, expected in 12 months, will draw on a range of experts from the fields of constitutional law, conflict resolution and political science.
The project is being led from University College London’s Constitution Unit, which specialises on research into constitutional reform.
It will look beyond simply how a border poll would be conducted in Northern Ireland, but also at what kind of constitutional change might be necessary in Ireland too.
While the project is still in its early stages, it will examine whether Ireland might need to hold more than one referendum – such as one before negotiations on a united Ireland and one following such negotiations.
In 1998, both Ireland and Northern Ireland approved the Good Friday Agreement in simultaneous votes.
‘Timely’
“We have seen an extraordinarily badly designed referendum process in relation to Brexit,” Dr Alan Renwick, the leader of the project and an expert on referendums and elections at University College London, told TheJournal.ie.
“This makes getting the process right in Northern Ireland particularly important.”
Renwick said that there was something of a reluctance to start thinking about the issue of a unity referendum. “Both UK and Irish politicians are reluctant to encourage this process in the short term and to talk about it,” he said.
There has been a recognition that these issues do need to be thought about. A referendum could happen. It could be required. Going into that blindly would not serve anyone’s interests.
Renwick does hope, however, that politicians will decide to give their views as part of the process.
In Ireland, academics from both Trinity College Dublin and University College are involved. From the North, staff from Queen’s University Belfast and Ulster University will also contribute to the project, which has received funding from the British Academy.
David Kenny, an expert on constitutional law in Trinity, said that the project was “timely”.
Ireland’s experience of citizens’ assemblies is expected to feed into the project, which will consider everything from how a border poll would be triggered to how ballot papers will be designed in the event of a referendum.
Both Kenny and his colleague Dr Oran Doyle, who is also involved in the project, worked on citizens’ assemblies in Ireland ahead of the Eighth Amendment referendum.
“We have that experience and both of us are interested in the role of citizen assemblies in framing constitutional questions,” Kenny said.
However, he warned that such bodies should not be seen as “quick fixes” for addressing complex policy questions.
While acknowledging that the project might face some opposition, especially from unionist communities, Kenny said that the questions couldn’t be ignored.
“You’re going to have to consider it at some point anyway,” he said.
With some polling indicating that support for a united Ireland is rising in Northern Ireland, significant questions remain about how the process could be carried out amid fears that a border poll could add further tension to a region experts think could be hardest hit by Brexit.
A Constitution Unit report, published in March, found that:
The real world risks are high. An early poll, particularly if it takes place in a political atmosphere that is strained following a hard Brexit, could seriously destabilise both parts of Ireland, and put at risk the political gains and civil order of recent decades.
The project plans to engage with the public and civil society organisations over the next 12 months before making any recommendations on how a unity referendum could be facilitated and organised.
Renwick said that while a public event would be held in London, the main focus of the work will be in Ireland on both sides of the border.
The looming threat of a no-deal Brexit has prompted growing debate in Northern Ireland about a border poll.
Sinn Féin has repeatedly called on the Irish government to plan for a united Ireland, while in July 2018 former DUP leader Peter Robinson said that the North needs to prepare for the possibility.
Meanwhile a new report, authored by academics from Trinity College Dublin and Dublin City University, has warned that unification would require a “major” cut in the standard of living in Ireland in order to allow Northern Ireland to maintain its own living standards.
The research, by John FitzGerald and Edgar LW Morgenroth, warns that “whatever form Irish unity took there would be a heavy economic cost for both Northern Ireland and Ireland”.
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Mainland Britain does not want the North anymore. The backstop is a Brexit nightmare, it has financialy always taken more than it has put in, it’s a drain. The issue is, do we want it either?
@RabidHorizon: We couldn’t afford it. Too many jobs created in the public service, a pension time bomb just over the horizon, £10bn in subsidies from London, knuckle dragging prehistoric bigots. And would they swop their NHS for the HSE? I’m sure there’s more and I couldn’t see the EU paying for all of that!
@Paul Furey: and the biggest social housing collection in the UK. NIHE
And what’s worse, latest polls say 51% are in favour of reunification. Near 50/50 results NEVER work! It would be a nightmare, unless properly sold to the 49% (and we all know what they are like!)
@Paul Furey: me thinks they doth protest too much
@Paul Furey: Can understand your point. The hundreds of billions it has cost the Brits to maintain one of the last bastions of a murderous empire not even mentioning the thousands of lives it cost, now the six counties becomes a problem for the Brits…Read Their history… They will abandon it like a hot cake…They left turmoil in every country..all for the sake of a murderous lost empire.
@Paul Furey: i think the north actually has quite a bit of potential if it’s managed correctly. Unfortunately successive Irish governments have shown that they can’t successfully manage their way through the simplest of projects so I’ve no faith in them doing a good job in this situation.
@Paul Furey: You’re correct, the biggest employer in NI is the government!
@Marie Agnew: and the Republic is a beacon of free enterprise with minuscule reliance on the state??
@Paul Furey: I laughed yesterday on an RTE interview with Mary Lou when in the middle of being hounded as usual by the RTE interviewer she was asked how much responsibility they felt towards waiting lists in NHS Northern Ireland due to a lack of an Assembly..We have worse waiting lists than they have and we have ,seemingly, a fully functioning Government.Northern Ireland citizens would not take the shit we do down here..they would lynch half of the politicians.
@Paul Furey: stop talking Rubbish we had no problem borrowing billions to pay of gamblers in Europe we wouldnt be footing the bill anyway the EU and UK would have subsidize it for a number of years
@paul gurney: Let me get this straight, you think that in a United Ireland, NI citizens would murder up to half our politicians (several hundred) if they don’t get their own way. Any we would invite this on ourselves? Thanks for the warning. Obviously old habits die hard, pardon the pun.
Many of these pointless reports are based on the 6 counties continuing to remain some dependant economic wasteland that britain and london helped turn it into. Ireland would ensure that this would not remain the case but turn it gradually into a integral productive competitive part of Irelands economy as EU member state
@Mentis Green: tee hee because it’s in Londons best interest to have it that way and just payout handout after handout. I’ve no faith we could make a better fist of it. Donegal is hardly thriving economically or any neighbouring boarder county.
@RabidHorizon: Honestly how naive can you be of history, politics &economics.~9 million Londoners & the rest of England ~ 46 million make up the 533 English MPs out of 650 MPs in Westminster. These English MPs do not want jobs, investment on offer etc going from London/England where their voters are from to a place they can’t even find on a map.
They don’t see that helping them to get elected. If you ever looked at history you would know England/Westminster historically passed laws that destroyed Irish trade on a number of occasions via vile navigation acts etc, Irelands trade was openly suppressed & extirpated. Woollens from ulster were excluded from England & all foreign markets thousands from ulster had to leave for US. The border counties were hurt more precisely because of partition
@Mentis Green: Also Irelands GDP per capita in is ~ €72,000, NI is ~€23,000. Ireland tops the international and EU rankings in numerous categories such as growth rate and competitiveness leaving britain or NI in the dust. NI is currently one of as the worst preforming and poorest areas in Western Europe.
@Mentis Green: your case for London is the same as ours for Dublin. what’s Donegals GDP per capita? Derry and Fermanagh are no different.
@Mentis Green: if it’s a vote with the heart I’m in, if it’s a vote with the head it’s no thanks.
The West Brit brigade are out in force tonight. Generations of a certain brand of weasely Southern Irishmen cravenly looking to follow a British template of living. Fully diluted and gelded and not interested in the Irish men, women and children who have been partitioned for 100 years. You will find you are out numbered and unification will come to pass in a democratic vote. Nobody is going to force you take down your little portrait of Queen Elizabeth from your downstairs toilet or ban you from playing cricket. You should also not deny your fellow Irishmen their democratic right to vote to break free from British rule. But you will try. That’s just how you have been programmed by “The Mainland” you so love so dearly. Ruth Dudley Edwards would be so proud.
@Chief Buck Cat: go away to sleep id say
@Chief Buck Cat: or maybe they don’t think that the Nordies are the same as them. Or maybe they don’t want the Nordies (for numerous reasons). Or maybe they can’t afford the Nordies. Quick question – have you ever actually met a Nordy?
@Chief Buck Cat: Well said Chief
@Chief Buck Cat: Awww, can someone give Chief Bitter Cat a hug?
I would take a United ireland in a heart beat…doesn’t matter how we cant afford them I would in an instant take them six counties as if I won the lottery..anyone who keeps going on how bankrupt we would be from taking them on should be shot .and we cant keep em because they the child they never wanted.. look at our own politicians look at rte how they all keep raping us and keep us in the dark….I wouldn’t trust a politician nor do I watch tv but I’m an irish man and I love my country but to watch this calamity is ridiculous
@Mike Murphy: How many would you shoot Mike? Would you bravely pull the trigger yourself?
@Mike Murphy: there has been enough murder on this island, how callous of you to make a throw away comment that more people should be shot. Deeply sickening.
Soviet Union university studies practicalities of reunification of Germany.
They should study something more feasible
Req’d:
-Republic to be declared a secular State
-get rid of councils and establish 4 strong provincinal governments
-secularise primary & secondary education
-secularise hospitals
-give provinces right to levy property tax, car tax & return all VAT to provinces to administer health & education. ( the national system/one size fits all is not working)
-etc
This would also take pressure off Dublin traffic & housing through decentralisation
and make NI protestants feel more at home in a unified Ireland, IMO.
@Moorooka Mick: that’s pretty close to the Eire Nua proposal for a United Ireland and it was a good proposal. For whatever reason it was abandoned by the Provisionals and PSF but is still espoused by RSF. Personally I think it will be a two state solution with NI and Stormont continuing to exist in a UI. Big decisions to be made on flags, anthems, promotion of unionist culture on an All Ireland basis. Probably membership of the commonwealth as well. A long way to go.
What’s the bets that they won’t find that the south will have their head wrecked by having to put up with a load of Nordies – ie their current problem. The correct answer is that nobody wants it!
@Big Red: I want it.
@Joey Navinski: To be fair a lot of people who dont want it seem to think that nobody wants it for some reason.
@Lad: I suppose we can’t categorically say that until it has been offered to Scotland or the Isle of Mann, and they also don’t want it.
@Big Red: yes we can “categorically say that” because you and quite a few others on here have already stated that nobody wants it which is categorically untrue.
@Joey Navinski: the people who want the north want it as empty land, nobody wants it full of Nordies! Especially the current lot.
@Big Red: read Lad’s reply above. You keep claiming “nobody” wants it which is blatantly untrue.
@Big Red: people dont like your type down south or up North loyal to themseleves.
@Big Red: I want it.
If it’s in The Journal then it must have happened.
Despite it’s title, this outlet doesn’t employ journalists, only stenographers, cutting and pasting from press releases or, as in this occasion, repeating verbatim the message from their sponsors and funders.
That they would print an article of this nature can only mean a number of things;
There is a Brexit deal, whats missing is the timing of the announcement;
The DUP dont know it, but they already been under the bus;
The UK border will be at the mainland points of entry;
N Ireland will become an EU protectorate, the first physical piece of territory the organisation have ever owned;
The constituencies in N Ireland will be given seats in the Dail;
Within two General Elections in the State, the Unionists will hold the balance of power.
Is there a gofundme page?
Glad I logged on now. I hadn’t a clue what facts and problems lay behind a potential UI until I got my info from the academics, scholars and political scientists that throng the comments section.
No thanks. I don’t want a drop in my living standards.
@Nathan Carr: I don’t know if you have kids Nathan but if you do, why don’t you put one of them up for adoption to help increase your living standards
If both your parents are alive (please god that they are) and you are living with them , why don’t you throw them out of the house, this will also help increase your living standards
At the end of the day it’s all about living standards, isn’t it.
@@at: It isn’t all about living standards but if people are already struggling to get by and they are told that a United Ireland will cost them money support will evaporate. A lot of UI support is aspirational and perhaps soft support.which can be swayed.
Buck is100% right a vote will end Partition as will weight of numbers as Unionist children go to college on the “mainland “ do not return home to have careers or breed. RC community do not move away, stay and breed so it’s a matter of time and demographics. However, business interests in NI aligned with the EU/ ROI will see the benefit being a unified entity and provided the different “cultural” values are protected then the majority will go for a united entity. NHS v HSE, pensions and share of public debt, employment etc etc can all be dealt with in talks with the U.K. paying compensation to ROI for off loading their expensive former colony. It’s a price worth paying as the U.K. can afford it and will cost less in the long run. Foster et al not happy can as she said flit to the mainland.
@James Kelly: and if the vote says ‘NO’ will you flit someplace? Where?
We can’t afford it is the usual refrain by people who never bothered to read the Independent report that’s ststea that a UI would actually benifit u. They also ignore the fact that Belfast was once the commercial capital of Ireland. Thay ignore the fact that businesses probably didn’t set up in NI because of its violent image. They ignored the fact that part of the subvension the Brits pay to NI is a defence budget.
I would be willing to bet that they will like most Irish people be the first in here when we do achieve a United Ireland and go on about how they always supported it.
Why wasn’t Dr Alan Renwick and his team in London hired by Cameron and the ERG to carry out similar type study for Brexit ahead of 2016 Referendum?
I guess if they thought for one minute that Referendum might be lost, the cool heads within Tories may have suggested this road…but probably stopped in their tracks for fear of a timely Yellowhammer!
Some of the comments on this are baffling. For the first time in our lives there’s a majority in favour of a United Ireland and yet we have “Irishmen” complaining about the costs.
Absolutely ridiculous. A lot of people in this comment section should take a hard look at themselves. Disgrace.
Park it until there is a border poll.
I was up North Two years ago buying a car, and after looking at a few in a garage in east Belfast I got a taxi back into town. I was asked where down south I was from and struck up a conversation about Ireland and a united Ireland and the differences. The taxi driver was more Irish than anyone I ever met around where I live, even started speaking to me in Irish but I hadn’t a clue what he was saying.
He was all for a united Ireland until I told him how much more his new BMW 530 would cost him down south plus the cost of road tax every year, I know taxis pay only something like 95 or 98 euro per year down here but as a ordinary driver especially if you have an old car. He said f that Im all for the six counties so.
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