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A SINN FÉIN candidate in one of Northern Ireland’s hardest-fought election battlegrounds has predicted that unionist farmers will help her retain the seat.
Michelle Gildernew insisted many pro-Remain unionists in Fermanagh and South Tyrone see her as a better option than her Leave-voting unionist rival, Tom Elliott.
Ulster Unionist Mr Elliott, a unionist farmer himself, said he is still a “soft” leaver but agrees with his new party leader, Steve Aiken, that remaining in the EU would be better than the terms of the withdrawal deal.
However, he believes a no-deal exit would also be preferable to the proposed agreement.
With the constituency having been decided by the narrowest of margins in recent history – a solitary vote in 2010 and just 53 in 2001 – incumbent MP Gildernew claims the backing of pro-Union voters could be key on 12 December.
“The Brexit thing is having an impact and people who maybe still wouldn’t necessarily agree with me on a constitutional position, agree with what I’m saying and what Sinn Fein are saying on the Brexit issue and they will vote,” she said.
“People are really, really concerned. Unionist farmers are looking at their future in a post-Brexit UK, and they’re frightened, and they’ve very good right to be.”
The republican went a step further, claiming some of those same unionists are also now reconsidering their views on the union itself.
“People who couldn’t comprehend it a few years ago are genuinely examining it and asking themselves those questions now and that’s very healthy, that’s to be welcomed,” she said.
“And Brexit has done that. People now know, if I have to choose which union I am going to be part of, I might pick the European Union in a united Ireland rather than the union with Brexit.”
Elliott, who won the seat from Gildernew in 2015, only to see her regain it in 2017, naturally offers a very different analysis of the contest.
He does not believe Brexit is the issue per se, rather the length of time the process of leaving the EU has taken.
“The difficulty is how long it has taken to get there,” he said.
“I always felt there was an easier resolution to the whole Brexit issue – and that was by the European Union giving special status to the Republic of Ireland to trade freely with a UK which includes Northern Ireland, and vice versa, and I think that would have resolved a lot of issues because we are two islands. They would have been a much simpler outcome to it.”
Elliott backed Leave in 2016 despite his party’s pro-Remain stance.
After the referendum, the UUP changed position and urged support for an EU exit, insisting the democratic vote had to be respected.
It has since moved again, with recently-appointed Aiken signalling a return to a pro-Remain position, arguing that staying in the EU would be much better than leaving on the terms agreed by the prime minister.
There has been speculation over whether Elliott is in tune with his new leader.
He said he agrees that remaining would be better than Boris Johnson’s deal, but adds a caveat – that a no-deal exit would also be preferable to the current deal.
“Boris Johnson’s deal is a bad deal for Northern Ireland overall, economically and for businesses, simply because it puts a regulatory position between Northern Ireland and GB and that’s difficult, that’s difficult for businesses today,” he said.
“So I have to say I don’t like Boris Johnson’s deal and I think, probably, in the end I would prefer almost any deal apart from it, including to remain or including, in the end, no deal at all, because, you know, it’s just not a good deal overall.”
For the fourth general election in a row, the DUP has stood aside in the constituency.
The party backed a unionist independent in 2010 but in 2015 and 2017 it supported the UUP as part of wider pacts which saw the Ulster Unionists reciprocate elsewhere in the region.
It has made for a somewhat awkward alliance in Fermanagh, given that current DUP leader Arlene Foster is a local MLA who defected from the UUP in acrimonious circumstances back in 2004.
This time round, the current Brexit deal is another factor that could make for an uneasy link-up.
The UUP has been highly critical of the DUP’s handling of its Westminster partnership with the Conservatives, claiming it only served to deliver a deal that could spell disaster for the Union.
And while the DUP remains committed, publicly at least, to Brexit, the UUP is now aligning itself with the Remain side of the debate.
Elliott rejects the suggestion that the tie-up with the DUP undercuts his party’s efforts to blame them over Brexit.
Countering Gildernew’s assertion that unionists will decide their vote on Brexit, Elliott believes the preservation of the union will trump all other issues, and see UUP and DUP voters unite behind him.
“Clearly what people recognise is, above all, the union of the United Kingdom is the most important thing here,” he said.
“What we want to do is try to ensure that we maintain that, that we strengthen that and we build on that because we’re part of the fifth largest economy in the world being part of the United Kingdom.”
Elliott claims Sinn Fein’s Westminster abstentionist policy is also a turn-off for voters, who he says crave proper representation to deal with issues such as spiralling hospital waiting times.
It is an argument Gildernew dismisses, insisting that Sinn Fein’s seven MPs would not have made a “button of difference” in any of the Commons votes on Brexit.
“If we had gone into some of those votes, took the oath of allegiance to the British Queen and went in and voted, the seven of us would have been ruled out by seven or 17 or 70 people who had decided to go one way and then refused to go into the same voting lobbies as us.
“I think it would have been counter-productive. And I think we wouldn’t have made a difference.
“English MPs wouldn’t have let Irish MPs change the course of English history.”
She said her party has instead made its voice count where it “matters” – Dublin, Brussels and Washington.
Since his defeat in 2017, Elliott has stepped away from the political spotlight, dividing his time between his farm, working part-time in the UUP’s Enniskillen office and his role as chairman of his beloved Ballinamallard FC.
He insists his return is not a reluctant one.
“I’m someone who’s fairly practical and I get on with whatever I’m doing,” he said.
“Whenever I was involved in frontline politics, you put your heart and soul into it and put everything into it, and once you’re out of it you get on with other things, so obviously I’m having a go at getting back in.
“If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work, but I’ll make a go of whatever it is.”
The other candidates running in Fermanagh and South Tyrone are the SDLP’s Adam Gannon, the Alliance Party’s Matthew Beaumont, and independent Caroline Wheeler.
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Or perhaps they’ll vote for a candidate who will actually represent them in parliament, rather than those who do nothing but pocket expenses and hold meaningless press conferences
@Stephen Kearon: yep break election promises to do that. Easy know you are a FF man. You think nothing of breaking election promises. The people copped onto you though. Only 40 people voted for you so no one bought into your lies and false promises, you FF weasel
@@at: judging by Mr Kearon’s political history I’d imagine he’s more insulted about SF representatives refusing to swear allegiance to the english queen than anything else.
@Stephen Kearon: Ah the FF man at it again listen Steven everyone knows, That you are a FF man through and through.
The people that vote for SF know that they will not take up their seats in Westminster and are happy that SF are carrying out what they said in their manifesto.
Unlike you’re party that row back on everything after the elections.
@Stephen Kearon: ideal opportunity for you and your ffg buddies to run candidates and swear an oath to the British queen.
@Stephen Kearon: Yet FF or FG won’t contest elections in the north and swear allegiance to the British Queen, talk about kettle calling the pot black.
@Dave Byrne: Fianna Fáil man really? He comes across more like a cross between the Blueshirts and the DUP. But I suppose that’s not much of a leap these days.
@Shane Barry: it’s not their country ! Why would they, no more then they would contest election in mainland great Britain…. Your not very bright kiddo
@Gordon Hughes: Leo Varadkar said he supports a United Ireland and at least half the population of the north are Irish Citizen so yes it is partly our country.
@Gordon Hughes: But he can spell… so he might correctly understand the things he reads. Kiddo.
@Gordon Hughes: Ehmmm… Fine Gael’s Secondary Name is literally “The United Ireland Party”, Fianna Fáil’s “The Republican Party”, that’s why they should! But they don’t bother and haven’t for a century.
@Dave Byrne: Yes SF not showing up great way to save ni form Brexit
@OwenK74: They showed up in Europe and used diplomacy to get wording into the Brexit deal to acknowledge the GFA. All at a time, FG and FF were saying the North must leave with the rest of the UK. The BBC even did a documentary on it. But hey, believe what you want to believe.
She is a bit presumptuous there I think
@@at: a bit? Head in clouds.
Wishful thinking I would say better chance getting the SDLP supporters onboard
Trying to keep a salary rather than keep a seat.
It will be interesting to see what happens the unionist vote in this election
Everyone who refuse to take up ther seats after the Election inc MLAs should not be paid
@pat seery: Spoken like a true Monarchist. You might want to bow to your betters and swear allegiance to the current Queen and all her children and her childrens children. The rest of us believe we are all born equal and believe in Democracy. I think your Prince Andrew proved our point this weekend.
I seem to recall Gildernew lambasting the Irish government for its treatment of Sean Quinn a few years ago. Those comments didn’t age well.
@Clifford Brennan: don’t see how the circumstances have changed. Let’s not forget the Gov have done a deal to convince Quinn to drop his claim against the state. Must have felt their position vis a vis their treatment of him wasn’t too solid in order to stop persuing his half billion as a quid pro quo for dropping aforementioned suit. Aside from that I’m sure you aren’t trying to allege anything else against the man.
@Ivan Connolly: Allege? No not at all. €2.2 billion in unpaid loans to the state and an insurance levy of €1 billion is all. How very dare the state try to recoup this. I can’t fathom who’d decry this. Her party discreetly withdrew suppport as the details emerged. Hubris is a dreadful thing. Fair play to your intuition which deciphered the details of the confidential settlement – “must have felt” is categorical proof now? Its like youre guilty of what you’ve accused me of…
@Clifford Brennan: it’s ok the priest will get him now
@Clifford Brennan: Do you support the attempts to unseat the SF candidate and gifting the seat to a pro Brexit candidate? Very interesting turn by FF and FG. Everyone is watching. It will be publicized.
@DaMoons: Cal, I always enjoy your conspiracies. You literally just said commenters were against the SF candidate and asked should we ask party leaders for their official opinion. In response to my comment, you’ve upgraded your theory to an actual policy by 2 parties. Keep them coming Cal. Its comedy gold.
@Clifford Brennan: You do actually respond like a FG politician. Do you support ensuring the least number of Pro Brexit candidates are elected as possible or do you not care? Genuine question. In case you missed it, The SDLP had one of their prominent members sworn into the House of Lords this week. She swore lifelong allegiance to the monarchy. Would you do that?
@DaMoons: You remind me of Murdock from the A- Team. :)
@Clifford Brennan: Again, would you rather a Brexit supporting candidate win vs someone who wants to minimize the number of pro Brexit MPs being elected. Let everyone see you for what you are and what you stand for. SF has already endorsed a Unionist anti Brexit candidate. You apparently cant do the same.
@Clifford Brennan: dealing in specifics he did not borrow €2.2 billion from the state but from a bank which the state happened to take control of. There is a concept in common law whereby an illegal transaction cannot be later upheld by the law. The transaction was illegal and was only upheld because it was the state that took ownership of that illegal debt. It is also a fact that the state agreed not to pursue the missing €500 million if quinn dropped his suit against them. If you were not privy to that before you may now consider yourself informed. It is merely an opinion that the state felt they didn’t have a sound footing to defend their actions against him but you are free of course to take your own position as you their reasoning.
@Clifford Brennan: I saw the link you posted on a previous thread that you used to try and argue an economic point. It was a made up site which wasn’t dated and had no facts included. You really are scraping the bottom of the barrel mate. You must try harder.
@DaMoons: You’ll have to post a link to that previous thread. I have no idea what you’re talking about Murdock. In fact, I’d bet money you’re telling lies.
shes some hope of getting that vote they would give it to the SDLP quicker
Very interesting to see FF and FG commenters supporting a Unionist candidate. They know that the stronger the Pro Brexit parties do in this coming election will do significant damage to the Island of Ireland economy. I hope the Journal follows up and asks their party leaders their official opinions.
“It is an argument Gildernew dismisses, insisting that Sinn Fein’s seven MPs would not have made a “button of difference” in any of the Commons votes on Brexit.”
Clearly she does not understand how a “hung” parliament works. Maybe she means that SF seven MPs are “not worth a button”.
@For Goodness Sake: Or possibly you don’t understand the dynamics of how things are in the British House of Commons. Hmm; tough decision: Anonymous keyboard warrior, or person willing to stand publicly for election even though she already knows the challenge of standing in a difficult constituency …
@Fachtna Roe: “Or possibly you don’t understand the dynamics of how things are in the British House of Commons.” This is the type of tripe that SF put out to explain their abstention and to allow Brexit to progress.
These guys are a disgrace who take the kings shilling but won’t attend exercise their vote. I suppose this will be answered by the usual auld guff.
@For Goodness Sake: Yawn.
What’s the point in voting for someone who won’t represent you or show leadership when they need it most
@OwenK74: to counter that, should people vote for people who support and recognize the monarchy ( as the oath lays out, it is the Monarchs God given will) as being the only ones who can approve laws in the North, or should they use their vote to say any laws that pertain to the Irish people should not be at the will of a Monarch to enact at their will. What is your opinion on Democracy?
Shouldn’t be closely fought anyone with any common sense should realise now that clearly DUP style politics is toxic to the island of Ireland as a whole, they are toxic to the economy as a whole and toxic to the people living on this island as a whole. They will be supplicants stooges to some brexit fool with the IQ of a amoeba living on a different island across a sea and will happily jeopardise the welfare of farmers and businesses in NI to get a pat on the head from them.
Those arguing for SF to go to Westminster are making the same mistake as the DUP, even with the benefit of hindsight. Westminster is in the grip of a narrow form of English nationalism that has driven their Brexit policy. SF rallied with the pro remain forces in Europe and got great credit for doing so.
A shame that there are no genuine Left candidates. The mainstream parties will only ever offer softer versions of the free market. SF claims to be Left are farcical, as are SDLPs. The only choice here is between leave and remain. Beyond that, business as usual (literally
Dream on!
Sinn Fein should nominate proxy MPs to do their bidding in Westminster. Separate from SF but with a slant towards a United Ireland and wiling to represent constituents at the big table.
@Stuart Wootten #FBPE: Doubt it would be a runner. There’s literally millions in expenses on the line. Fealty to the freebies is a red line issue.
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